Nuclear ProliferationWeek Eleven

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This Week

Nuclear Proliferation (Howlett, pp.384 - 397)- Weaponry - Proliferation- ControlExam Revision

Nuclear Weapons Technology

• Development is a complex process, likely state led• Very different to nuclear reactors– Reactors aim for a steady, regulated output

• Heat is removed from the nuclear chain, to generate power

– Weapons aim for uncontrolled, rapid explosion• Fission Weapons: Atoms split rapidly, causing a chain

reaction and an explosion• Fusion Weapons: Fission provides the primary ignition, then

compressing/heating hydrogen atoms for volatility

Nuclear Weapons Technology

• Can be acquired ‘off-the-shelf’ by purchase or theft of a device.

• Nuclear technology is more likely to be acquired by a range of infrastructural development: - – Radiological technologies– Nuclear technologies– Conventional technologies– Computational technologies– Electronic technologies

Nuclear Weapons Technology

• Often ‘delivered’ via ballistic missiles: offers the ability strike from range. This technology is now commonplace

• Nuclear weapons do damage in distinctive forms. What are they?

Blast Damage

Heat/Thermal RadiationNuclear Radiation

• These weapons all cause ‘EMP’ disruption. What is this?

Nuclear Weaponry

• United Nations Commission for Conventional Armaments created a new classification in 1948 – the ‘WMD’ or ‘Weapon of Mass Destruction’

• Conceptual focus recently shifted to CBRN – chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear to differentiate between these weapon types.

So Who Has Nuclear Weaponary?

There are five states acknowledged as nuclear states by the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Who are they?

1. China (since 1964)2. France (since 1960)3. Russia/Soviet Union (since 1949) 4. United Kingdom (since 1952)5. USA (since 1945)

So Who Has Nuclear Weaponary?

There are, however, states which have developed the necessary technology but are not on the list. Howlett (p.384) list two examples: -1. India2. Pakistan

They demonstrated this technology by conducting nuclear tests and ballistic missiles launches in May 2008

So Who Doesn’t Want Them?

Whilst areas such as South Asia have shown a clear desire for nuclear capabilities, other regions aim to become a ‘NWFZ’. What is an ‘NWFZ’?

A Nuclear Weapons Free Zone

Which world regions has this encompassed?

Latin AmericaSouth Pacific

South East AsiaCentral Asia

Africa

Motivations: Why Have Them?

• Strategic: Shift from the perspective that nuclear weapons are for war-fighting, towards notions of deterrence. Brodie (1946) argued that these weapons are only useful in their non-use, as a deterrent, as cultural norms prohibit their use

• Prestige: Development to raise the strategic profile of a nation or its leaders – ownership of ‘nukes’ gives a greater influence, preventing undue outside influence

• Determinism: Once the technology is developed, why not develop the weapons

Motivations: Why Not Have Them?

• Strategic: alliance with other non-nuclear states. • Technological difficulties• Perceived risk : a belief that the weapons would

increase vulnerability – terrorists may attack nuclear facilities. Events such as 9/11 showed a willingness to go to such extremes.

• External political pressures

It is sometimes unclear who has and who hasn’t got these weapons! Iraq and Iran are examples of this.

Nuclear Control: 1945-1970

• Effort to constraint acquisition began in 1945• 1946: UN Atomic Energy Commission established

Aimed to eliminate weapons; safeguarding energy production Recommendations ignored due to tensions between the US and

Soviet Russia • 1953: Atoms for Peace Speech (Eisenhower)

Benefits of atomic power for international community

• 1957: International Atomic Energy Agency established• 1958-1961: Attempt to negotiation ban on testing between

Soviet Union, UK and USA – no agreement on testing/disarmament, as there was no means to detect cheating

Nuclear Control: 1945-1970

• 1963: Partial test ban agreed, prohibiting testing in the atmosphere, outer space or underwater.

• 1961: UN General Assembly adopts Irish Resolution – limitations on acquisition/transfer of weapons

• 1965: Resolution 2028 passed, a forerunner for NNPT in 1970

• 1967: NWFZ treaty opened for Latin America• 1970: Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty enters

force.

Anti-Proliferation Since 1970

• 1971: Initial guidelines established for nuclear trade by the IAEA.

• 1978: Atomic states gave assurances about weapons use at UN special session: only China said that they would not be the first to use them

• 1987: Guidelines established for the sale of nuclear capable ballistic weapons/cruise missiles: known as Missile Technology Control Regime and aimed to limit the risks of nuclear proliferation by controlling transfers of technology p.392 (since expanded to many other forms of missile systems)

Anti-Proliferation Since 1970

• 1995: Resolution on the Middle East highlighted problems with universal adherrance/trust

• 1996: Comprehensive test ban opened for signatures, but is yet to be ratified by the necessary 44 states.

• 2002: Hague Code of Conduct developed mandate behaviour in the transfer of missiles and missile parts.

• 2010: Nuclear Security Summit convened to tighten security of radiological/nuclear material

A full chronology is in the textbook!

Pages 394-395

Now for a happier topic!

The Exam!

Exam Revision

Preparing for the January Exams

The Exam

Nine Topics in the Module: - 1. Anarchy2. Realism3. Liberalism4. Human Security5. International Political Economy 6. Middle East 7. Asia-Pacific 8. Terrorism

The Exam

There are only eight questions on the exam: 1. Realism2. Liberalism3. Human Security4. International Political Economy5. Asia-Pacific6. Middle East7. Terrorism8. Nuclear Proliferation

You will answer two questions, not one on the same topic as your essay paper!

Approaching the Material

• You only have to answer two questions: that does not mean you should only revise two of the subject areas.

• By all means discount some, but prepare more than two areas in case the questions aren’t favourable

• Know specifics: What do the theorists say? What case-study examples are there?

• Summarise the key points: what you know you will need to know… Fit it all on one page!

General Advice

Some Strategies and Tips

Time

• Don’t leave it until the last minute: most people don’t benefit from ‘cramming’

• Know when you are able to revise. Organise your studies ahead of time - work around the distractions of hobbies, paid employment or university commitments.

• Do you work best in the morning, or in the evening?

Space

• Have you room for your textbooks and notes?

• Have you got enough light? Natural light is preferable!

• Is your chair comfortable?• Are any distractions out of

sight? Difficult to revise around computer games or the television!

• Do you need order, or clutter?

Noise

• Can you work in silence?

• If not, find light background music that is unobtrusive – you can find many playlists on YouTube

Visual Aids

• Charts and diagrams can be helpful in organising your work

• Try to condense your notes in single pages

Friends and Family

• Revise in groups: you will be able to keep each other focussed

• Explain the topics to housemates, parent, siblings or the family cat!

Take a Break!

• Know when to stop! You can’t revise all day every day. Optimise your time and don’t feel guilty about taking a break!

Misc.

• Eat well– Don’t just eat junk food– Fish, Nuts, Seeds, Yoghurts and Blueberries are all

proven to aid concentration• Be well prepared on the day– Get things ready the night before– Know how long you need to get to the venue– Drink lots of water

Any Questions?

Any Advice That You Want to Share?

The PowerPoint Presentations

They are now online!

Goodbye and Good Luck!