nuclear power and climate change adriana mugnatto-hamu [email protected] 416-273-8247...
TRANSCRIPT
Nuclear Powerand Climate Change
Adriana Mugnatto-Hamu
Climate Change Conference 20102010 August 14
Problems Joshua highlightedwith nuclear power:
1. Long construction times
2. Declining ore grades
Lifecycle CO2e of Electricity SourcesLow Estimate High EstimateReproduced with permission.
http://stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/renew_vs_nuclear.html
Time Between Planning & Operation
Nuclear: 10 - 19 y (life 40 y)Site permit: 3.5 - 6 yConstruction permit approval and issue 2.5 - 4 yConstruction time 4 - 9 years
(Average today in China = 7.1 years)
Hydroelectric: 8 - 16 y (life 80 y)Coal-CCS: 6 - 11 y (life 35 y)Geothermal: 3 - 6 y (life 35 y)Ethanol: 2 - 5 y (life 40 y)CSP: 2 - 5 y (life 30 y)Solar-PV: 2 - 5 y (life 30 y)Wave: 2 - 5 y (life 15 y)Tidal: 2 - 5 y (life 15 y)Wind: 2 - 5 y (life 30 y)
Reproduced with permission.http://stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/renew_vs_nuclear.html
CO2e From Current Power Mixdue to Planning-to-Operation Delays,
Relative to WindLow Estimate High Estimate
Reproduced with permission.http://stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/renew_vs_nuclear.html
Nuclear limitations for load shifting
• no reactor on the planet can drop outputmore than 50% below the nominal
• ability to vary outputdecreases over the fuel cycle
• varying output by limiting the reaction increases risk ...
• ... and decreases reactor lifespan• reducing output below the nominal
for significant amounts of timeincreases the cost of nuclear per kilowatt hour
A coal plant must be running at capacity when it is replaced by a nuclear plant
Nuclear reactors reduce emissions if
• they replace existing reactorsat the end of their lives
or
• they can be a small part of a suite of tactics to reduce many coal plants
Total CO2e of Electricity Sources
Low Estimate High EstimateReproduced with permission.http://stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/renew_vs_nuclear.html
Reproduced with permission.http://stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/renew_vs_nuclear.html
Reproduced with permission.R. Kenny, C. Law, J.M. Pearce, Towards real energy economics: Energy policy driven by life-cycle carbon emission,
Energy Policy, Volume 38, Issue 4, April 2010, Pages 1969-1978, ISSN 0301-4215, DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2009.11.078.(http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V2W-4Y0K9WG-7/2/20bfb54fda02e08876ec8f8fcb7e48bc)
Reproduced with permission.R. Kenny, C. Law, J.M. Pearce, Towards real energy economics: Energy policy driven by life-cycle carbon emission,
Energy Policy, Volume 38, Issue 4, April 2010, Pages 1969-1978, ISSN 0301-4215, DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2009.11.078.(http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V2W-4Y0K9WG-7/2/20bfb54fda02e08876ec8f8fcb7e48bc)
Reproduced with permission.R. Kenny, C. Law, J.M. Pearce, Towards real energy economics: Energy policy driven by life-cycle carbon emission,
Energy Policy, Volume 38, Issue 4, April 2010, Pages 1969-1978, ISSN 0301-4215, DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2009.11.078.(http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V2W-4Y0K9WG-7/2/20bfb54fda02e08876ec8f8fcb7e48bc)
But what about…
• Footprint• Transition• Reliability• Cost
But what about…
• Footprint• Transition• Reliability• Cost
"The amounts of fuel and waste that must be dealt with at a nuclear reactor can be up to one million times smaller than the amounts of fuel and waste at
an equivalent fossil-fuel power station."
Area to Power 100% ofU.S. Onroad Vehicles
Cellulosic E85
4.7-35.4% of US
Solar PV-BEV0.077-0.18%
Corn E859.8-17.6% of
US
Wind-BEVFootprint 1-2.8
km2
Turbine spacing 0.35-0.7% of US
Geoth BEV0.006-0.008%
Nuclear-BEV0.05-0.062%Footprint 33% of total; the rest is buffer
Reproduced with permission.http://stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/renew_vs_nuclear.html
But what about…
• Footprint• Transition• Reliability• Cost
But what about…
• Footprint• Transition• Reliability• Cost
1. The wind doesn't always blow and the sun doesn't always shinewhen you need them to
2. Nuclear output is steady
Meeting peak demand
• Solar power
• Storage
• Biofuels
• Carbon capture
• Hydro power
• Load shifting
But what about…
• Footprint• Transition• Reliability• Cost
Reproduced with permission.R. Kenny, C. Law, J.M. Pearce, Towards real energy economics: Energy policy driven by life-cycle carbon emission,
Energy Policy, Volume 38, Issue 4, April 2010, Pages 1969-1978, ISSN 0301-4215, DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2009.11.078.(http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V2W-4Y0K9WG-7/2/20bfb54fda02e08876ec8f8fcb7e48bc)
Matching Hourly Summer 2020 Electricity Demand with 100% Renewables
(No Change in Hydro)Total Demand
Geothermal
Wind
Solar
Hydro