Now it is time for a lecture Now it is time for a lecture on population issues!on population issues!

YAY!YAY!

I hope it isn’t on aging I hope it isn’t on aging population!population!

(please don’t let it be on (please don’t let it be on aging population…)aging population…)

What is Globalization?What is Globalization?

Weakening of the Weakening of the nation-state and nation-state and strengthening of strengthening of transnational transnational political processespolitical processes

Emergence of a Emergence of a global economic global economic marketmarket

Emergence of a Emergence of a world-spanning world-spanning global cultureglobal culture

Anything but aging Anything but aging population!population!

(fingers crossed…)(fingers crossed…)

Aging Aging Population: How Population: How

it Worksit Works

Statistically speaking, Statistically speaking, an aging population is an aging population is caused by an caused by an unbalanced increase in unbalanced increase in the mean and median the mean and median age of a populationage of a population

Demographers use the Demographers use the Population Pyramid to Population Pyramid to illustrate thisillustrate this

Aging Population: CausesAging Population: Causes

Lower fertility rate Lower fertility rate (the average births (the average births per woman in a per woman in a nation)nation)

(at least 2.1 births (at least 2.1 births per woman is per woman is required for a required for a balanced balanced population)population)

Higher life Higher life expectancyexpectancy

Aging Aging Population: Population:

ConsequencesConsequences

High dependence rationHigh dependence ration Lower rates of Lower rates of

consumerismconsumerism High welfare costsHigh welfare costs Later retirement ageLater retirement age Lack of manpowerLack of manpower

Where is it Where is it happening?happening?

Where is it (not) happening?Where is it (not) happening?

So what is the opposite of So what is the opposite of an aging population?an aging population?

What is called the What is called the “Youth Bulge”“Youth Bulge”

(ugh… gross!)(ugh… gross!)

Youth Bulge: Youth Bulge: How it WorksHow it Works

The Youth Bulge is created The Youth Bulge is created by an unblancing decrease by an unblancing decrease in the mean age of a nationin the mean age of a nation

This is accompanied by an This is accompanied by an only marginal increase in only marginal increase in the median age of a nationthe median age of a nation

Youth Bulge: Youth Bulge: CausesCauses

A short-lived explosion of A short-lived explosion of the fertility rate in a nationthe fertility rate in a nation

A marginal increase in life A marginal increase in life expectancyexpectancy

Population MomentumPopulation Momentum Societal factorsSocietal factors

Youth Bulge: Youth Bulge: ConsequencesConsequences

Scarcity and Scarcity and competitioncompetition

Lack of legacyLack of legacy Low dependency ratioLow dependency ratio Internal migrationInternal migration Poverty and inequalityPoverty and inequality International/International/

transnational migrationtransnational migration

Youth Bulge: Youth Bulge: BenefitsBenefits

Demographic BonusDemographic Bonus• Labor effectLabor effect• Savings effectSavings effect

Functional migrationFunctional migration

Youth Bulge: Youth Bulge: DrawbacksDrawbacks

Domestic political Domestic political instabilityinstability

International/International/transnational transnational political political contagioncontagion

Dysfunctional Dysfunctional migrationmigration

Past Past Youth Youth Bulges Bulges

in in HistoryHistory

Past Youth Bulges in HistoryPast Youth Bulges in History

Past Youth Bulges in Past Youth Bulges in HistoryHistory

Present Present Youth Youth BulgesBulges

Present Present Youth Youth BulgesBulges

Future Youth Future Youth BulgesBulges

Future Youth Future Youth BulgesBulges

Consequences Consequences for the Nationfor the Nation

Positive Positive consequences:consequences:

Offers a window of Offers a window of opportunity for a opportunity for a demographic bonus demographic bonus from labor and from labor and savingssavings

Healthy migration Healthy migration can lead to can lead to remittances and remittances and workers returning workers returning home with new skillshome with new skills

Negative Negative consequences:consequences:

Rapid urbanization Rapid urbanization and migration can and migration can stretch a nation’s stretch a nation’s resources and slow resources and slow the economythe economy

This leads to poverty This leads to poverty and inequalityand inequality

Which leads to Which leads to political conflict an political conflict an instabilityinstability

Which pushes out Which pushes out foreign investment foreign investment an slows the an slows the economyeconomy

And so on…And so on…

Consequences Consequences for the Worldfor the World

Positive consequences:Positive consequences: Economic cure for Economic cure for

aging populationsaging populations

Negative Negative consequences:consequences:

Contagion of political Contagion of political conflictconflict

Clash of civilizations Clash of civilizations from migrationfrom migration

Refugee floodsRefugee floods

So What are So What are the Solutions?the Solutions?

Create jobsCreate jobs Encourage family planning Encourage family planning

and reduce fertility rateand reduce fertility rate Education and/or jobs for Education and/or jobs for

womenwomen Reduce infant mortality Reduce infant mortality

raterate Democratization and/or Democratization and/or

representationrepresentation Open economies for more Open economies for more

labor intensive jobslabor intensive jobs Permit migration without Permit migration without

backlashes against migrant backlashes against migrant workersworkers

So What are the So What are the Consequences for Consequences for

Singapore?Singapore?

Sit back and Enjoy the Sit back and Enjoy the Video!Video!