contemporary population issues queensland australia

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Office of Economic and Statistical Research Contemporary population issues Alison Taylor Principal Demographer Brisbane seminar 14 June 2011

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Page 1: Contemporary population Issues Queensland Australia

Office of Economic and Statistical Research

Contemporary population issues

Alison TaylorPrincipal Demographer

Brisbane seminar

14 June 2011

Page 2: Contemporary population Issues Queensland Australia

Office of Economic and Statistical Research

Recent releases• Sustainable Australia – Sustainable Communities: A

Sustainable Population Strategy for Australia

• Our Cities, Our Future – A National Urban Policy

• Budget 2011 – Investing in Regional Australia

• Productivity Commission report benchmarking planning, zoning and development assessment

Page 3: Contemporary population Issues Queensland Australia

Office of Economic and Statistical Research

Sustainable Australia – Sustainable Communities: A Sustainable Population

Strategy for Australia

Outlines Government’s vision for a sustainable Australia– Objective is to ensure future changes in

Australia’s population are compatible with the sustainability of our economy, communities and the environment

Page 4: Contemporary population Issues Queensland Australia

Office of Economic and Statistical Research

Sustainable Australia – Sustainable

Communities: A Sustainable

Population Strategy for Australia

Page 5: Contemporary population Issues Queensland Australia

Office of Economic and Statistical Research

Sustainable Australia – Sustainable Communities: A Sustainable Population Strategy

for Australia cont.

• Complements other recent policies – National Urban Policy– Investing in Regional Australia– The Sustainable Communities package and – Reform of Infrastructure Australia

• Supports the creation of jobs closer to where people live, to improve amenity, to develop high quality public spaces and to encourage greater interaction in suburban communities

Page 6: Contemporary population Issues Queensland Australia

Office of Economic and Statistical Research

Page 7: Contemporary population Issues Queensland Australia

Office of Economic and Statistical Research

Sustainable Australia – Sustainable Communities: A Sustainable Population Strategy

for Australia cont.Strategy is supported by four new measures

• Suburban jobs (planning for employment precincts outside major cities’ CBDs)

• Sustainable regional development (greater capacity to undertake strategic environmental impact assessments of high growth regional areas)

• Measuring sustainability (a set of national sustainability indicators to chart progress in different communities) and

• Promoting regional living (supporting regional communities to promote themselves as places to live and to do business)

Page 8: Contemporary population Issues Queensland Australia

Office of Economic and Statistical Research

Page 9: Contemporary population Issues Queensland Australia

Office of Economic and Statistical Research

Sustainable Australia – Sustainable Communities: A Sustainable Population

Strategy for Australia cont.• No population target in favour of “concentrating on

ways of improving our wellbeing, protecting our environment and making better use of the resources we have”

• Targets would be arbitrary, distracting and impossible to deliver in practice

• Strategy seeks to manage impacts of all aspects of current population, closely monitor migration levels and use short and medium term population projections to plan and prepare for population needs in the future

Page 10: Contemporary population Issues Queensland Australia

Office of Economic and Statistical Research

Sustainable Australia – Sustainable Communities: A Sustainable Population

Strategy for Australia cont.

The strategy is available for download atwww.environment.gov.au/

sustainability/population

Page 11: Contemporary population Issues Queensland Australia

Office of Economic and Statistical Research

Our Cities, Our Future• Establishes the Government’s objectives and

directions for our cities as we prepare for the decades ahead

• Is about facilitating better outcomes in our cities through both direct investment and by influencing the actions of others

• Applies the principles of the Sustainable Population strategy to the urban context

• Recognises major regional centres as well as capital cities

Page 12: Contemporary population Issues Queensland Australia

Office of Economic and Statistical Research

Page 13: Contemporary population Issues Queensland Australia

Office of Economic and Statistical Research

Investing in Sustainable Communities

Targets more effective planning and design of our cities and efficient use of new and existing infrastructure

• Part A – Liveable Cities ($20m)• Part B – Suburban Jobs

($100m)

Page 14: Contemporary population Issues Queensland Australia

Office of Economic and Statistical Research

National Urban Policy - initiatives• Improve labour and capital

productivity• Integrate land use and

infrastructure• Improve the efficiency of urban

infrastructure• Protect & sustain our natural and

built environments• Reduce greenhouse gas emissions

and improve air quality• Manage our resources sustainably

Page 15: Contemporary population Issues Queensland Australia

Office of Economic and Statistical Research

National Urban Policy – initiatives cont.• Increase resilience to climate

change, emergency events and natural hazards

• Facilitate the supply of appropriate mixed income housing

• Support affordable living choices• Improve accessibility and reduce

dependence on private motor vehicles

• Support community wellbeing

Page 16: Contemporary population Issues Queensland Australia

Office of Economic and Statistical Research

National Urban Policy

The strategy is available for download atwww.infrastructure.gov.au/infrastructure/mcu/urban

policy/

Page 17: Contemporary population Issues Queensland Australia

Office of Economic and Statistical Research

Investing in Regional Australia• $4.3bn of initiatives to ensure that

individuals and communities across regional Australia share in the nation’s prosperity

• Strong, resilient and creative regional communities through measures targeting health, education, skills, workforce participation, infrastructure, environmental sustainability and improved delivery of government services

Page 18: Contemporary population Issues Queensland Australia

Office of Economic and Statistical Research

Investing in Regional Australia

The strategy is available for download at

www.budget.gov.au/2011-12

Page 19: Contemporary population Issues Queensland Australia

Office of Economic and Statistical Research

• Released in May 2011, the purpose was to benchmark the states’ and territories’ planning and zoning systems and their land development assessment processes

• Considered impact of above on efficiency and effectiveness of the functioning of cities

• Covered major and regional cities over 50,000 in population

Performance Benchmarking of Australian Business Regulation, Planning, Zoning and

Development Assessment report

Page 20: Contemporary population Issues Queensland Australia

Office of Economic and Statistical Research

Performance benchmarks

• SEQ (and Perth) in 2009-10 had among the highest supplies of greenfield land zoned for residential and land with subdivision approval (relative to population).

• However, Qld and WA appear to have significant housing shortfalls due to the more rapid growth

Page 21: Contemporary population Issues Queensland Australia

Office of Economic and Statistical Research

Community engagement• 21% of Qld’s capital city community agreed State

government is effective in planning (2nd highest after WA 22%)

• 17% agreed local governments are effective in planning (3rd highest after WA and Tas)

• 11% of community considered consultation to occur often

• 8% of community considered that government cares for their planning preferences

Page 22: Contemporary population Issues Queensland Australia

Office of Economic and Statistical Research

Travel time to work, capital cities

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Sydney Canberra Melbourne Brisbane Perth Adelaide Hobart Darwin

Med

ian

trave

l tim

e pe

ak h

our

(min

utes

)

Sydney Canberra Melbourne Brisbane Perth Adelaide Hobart Darwin

Source: Productivity Commission, 2011, Performance Benchmarking of Australian Business Regulation: Planning, Zoning and Development Assessments

Page 23: Contemporary population Issues Queensland Australia

Office of Economic and Statistical Research

Travel time to work, Queensland LGAs

Source: Productivity Commission, 2011, Performance Benchmarking of Australian Business Regulation: Planning, Zoning and Development Assessments

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Brisban

e Tota

lMore

ton Bay

IpswichLo

gan

Redland

Somers

etSce

nic Rim

Brisban

e City

Lock

yer V

alley

Gold C

oast

Cairns

Sunsh

ine C

oast

Towoo

mbaTow

nsvil

le

Med

ian

trave

l tim

e pe

ak h

our (

min

utes

)Brisbane TotalMoreton BayIpswichLoganRedlandSomersetScenic RimBrisbane CityLockyer ValleyGold CoastCairnsSunshine CoastTowoombaTownsville

Page 24: Contemporary population Issues Queensland Australia

Office of Economic and Statistical Research

Community attitudes to population growth

Across all 24 cities surveyed:• 12% said they would like an increase in population• 51% said they would not like the population in their community

to increase

• People in capital cities were less in favour of increases than people in other cities

• 29% said they did not care about population change in their community

• People in Sydney, Sunshine Coast and Geelong were most likely to not want the population to increase (64%, 59% and 57%)

Page 25: Contemporary population Issues Queensland Australia

Office of Economic and Statistical Research

Dissatisfaction of communities“One explanation for the apparent dissatisfaction of

communities with planning of their governments may be the substantial disjunction in planning priorities. Communities identified personal safety, public transport and congestion as their top planning priorities in the community survey. Most governments reported accommodating higher population growth, transitioning to higher population densities through greater infill and managing greenfield development to be their top priorities.”

The report is available for download at http://www.pc.gov.au

Page 26: Contemporary population Issues Queensland Australia

Office of Economic and Statistical Research

New UN projections released• World population to reach 10.1bn by 2100

– Much of increase in 39 high fertility countries in Africa, Asia, Oceania and Latin America

• Last year, 6.89bn, expected 7bn by Oct 2011 (doubled in last 50 years)

• Fewer people are dying young and some countries have relatively high fertility

• Leads to stress on natural resources, particularly food and water

The report is available for download at http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/

Page 27: Contemporary population Issues Queensland Australia

Office of Economic and Statistical Research

Queensland TreasuryOffice of Economic and Statistical ResearchDemography and PlanningPO Box 15037 City East Qld 4002 Australiatel +61 7 3224 5326fax +61 7 3227 7437

www.oesr.qld.gov.au