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Iraq Enters a Critical Period Graphs for the Report on the October 2011 Survey

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Page 1: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

November 2011

Iraq Enters a Critical Period Graphs for the Report on the October 2011 Survey

Page 2: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

The Research

National Survey

– September 22 – October 5, 2011

– 2,000 national face-to-face interviews (1,436 unweighted)

– 500 interviews in each of the following regions: Baghdad, South,

West, and North – weighted representatively

– Margin of error +/- 2.6 percent on full sample, +/- 4.4 percent on

North sample

Focus Groups

– July 22-25, 2011

– 2 each in Anbar, Baghdad, Basra, Erbil, and Sulaymaniyah.

Page 1

Page 3: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

5

8

9

9

10

27

30

35

59

0 20 40 60

Sectarianism

Political instability

Education

Infrastructure development

High prices

Security

Corruption

Basic services like electricity and water

Jobs and unemployment

Jobs continue to dominate as a top concern

Please tell me which TWO of these are the most important for the government to address.

Page 2

∆ Jul ’11

-1

-6

+3

-5

--

--

+3

+5

-2

Page 4: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

Job situation, corruption, electricity esp. seen as worsening

Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq.

Page 3

85

82

69

62

56

46

10

13

26

24

39

38

-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100

Job opportunities

Corruption

Electricity supply

Political instability

Security

Sectarianism

Worse Better∆ Better

Jul ’11

-1

-3

+6

+3

+2

-6

Page 5: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

Economic strength by region

33 35

53

4

34

49

32

39

77

50

0

20

40

60

80

Total Baghdad South West North

Strong Weak

Now I want to ask you about the economy. Would you say Iraq’s economy right now is strong or weak?

Page 4

Page 6: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

Right direction hits lowest point in a year

45

42 41 37

44

49 50 50

0

20

40

60

Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11

Right direction Wrong direction

Page 5

Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction?

Page 7: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

Country direction | region

37

49 42

16

47 50

30

52

68

40

0

20

40

60

80

Total Baghdad South West North

Right direction Wrong direction

Page 6

∆ Right Jul ’11 -4 +3 -7 -6 -5

Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction?

Page 8: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

8

46

7

66

27

12

70

61

40

44

16

59

22

31

22

51

0 20 40 60 80

Security

Corruption

Basic services

Jobs and unemployment

Baghdad West South North

Job concerns dominant across regions, with some variation Please tell me which TWO of these are the most important for the government to address.

Page 7

Page 9: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

Electricity perceptions better in Baghdad, worse elsewhere

Please tell me if you think ELECTRICITY SUPPLY is getting better or worse in Iraq.

Page 8

33

79

93

46

69

62

14

6

46

26

-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100

North

West

South

Baghdad

Total

Worse Better∆ Better

Jul ’11

+3

+42

-5

-10

-23

Page 10: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

Favorability of national leaders continues to fall

36 31 29 23 21 17 16 14 13 11

42 49 51 51 49 51

60 59 63 62

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Sadr Maliki Allawi Jaafari Hakim Nujaifi Mutlaq Hashemi Barzani Talabani

% Favorable % Unfavorable

Now, I’d like to rate your feelings toward some people, things, and organizations, with ―100‖

meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; ―0‖ meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and ―50‖

meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable.

Page 9

Δ Favorable

Jul ’11 +1 -3 -8 -9 -6 -9 -2 -7 +1 -6

Page 11: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

Allawi favorability drops especially among base

29 31 20

51

4 22

68

5

75

51 52 59 35

60 57

24

62

15

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Total Baghdad South West North Shia Non-KurdSunni

Kurd INAidentifiers

% Favorable % Unfavorable

Page 10

Δ favorable

Jul ’11 -8 -10 -6 - 8 -8 -5 -16 -10 -11

Page 12: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

Allawi job approval also drops

47

42 46

38

43

46 47 50

0

10

20

30

40

50

Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11

Approve Disapprove

Page 11

Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the job Ayad Allawi is doing as a prominent politician in Iraq?

―He does not do anything to serve the people.

He only struggles with Maliki and has verbal

fights with him.‖—Shia Woman, Basra

Page 13: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

Nujaifi job approval remains weak after strong start

48

33 33 38

50 51

0

20

40

60

Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11

Approve Disapprove

Page 12

Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the job Osama al-Nujaifi is doing as Speaker of the Council of Representatives?

Page 14: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

Nujaifi favorability continues to fall

39

26

17

39

47 51

0

20

40

60

Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11

% Favorable % Unfavorable

Page 13

Now, I’d like to rate your feelings toward some people, things, and organizations, with ―100‖

meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; ―0‖ meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and ―50‖

meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable.

Page 15: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

Maliki favorability slightly declines

41

35 34 31

47 45 51 49

0

20

40

60

Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11

% Favorable % Unfavorable

Page 14

Now, I’d like to rate your feelings toward some people, things, and organizations, with ―100‖

meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; ―0‖ meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and ―50‖

meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable.

Page 16: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

Maliki job approval dips

40 39 39 34

54 54 53 58

0

20

40

60

Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11

Approve Disapprove

Page 15

Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the job Nouri al-Maliki is doing as prime minister?

Page 17: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

Maliki favorable rating down in the South

31 41 45

17 4

46

2 8

49 40

31

70 68

32

86

67

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Total Baghdad South West North Shia Non-KurdSunni

Kurd

% Favorable % Unfavorable

Page 16

Δ favorable

Jul ’11 -3 -2 -10 +3 -3 -5 -3 --

Page 18: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

Maliki favorability among Da’wa partisans

95 87

93 86

3 8

2 4

0

20

40

60

80

100

Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Sep-11

% Favorable % Unfavorable

Page 17

Now, I’d like to rate your feelings toward some people, things, and organizations, with ―100‖

meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; ―0‖ meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and ―50‖

meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable.

Among those who ID with Da’wa

Page 19: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

Government not seen as responsive to people’s needs

19 17 23

11

30

67

57

71 74

59

0

20

40

60

80

Total Baghdad South West North

Better Worse

Page 18

Now I will read you a list of issues. Please tell me if you think the issue is getting better or worse

in Iraq: The central government’s responsiveness to the people’s needs.

Page 20: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

Most CoR members unaware and unresponsiveness to needs

31 21

55 64

0

20

40

60

80

Page 19

Statement 1: Members of the CoR

from my governorate know a lot

about local conditions in my

neighborhood.

Statement 2: Members of the CoR

from my governorate are mostly

unaware of the local conditions in

my neighborhood.

Now I'm going to read you some pairs of statements. For each one, I want you to tell me which choice comes closer to your point of view.

Statement 1: In general, members of

the CoR from my governorate are

mostly responsive to the needs of

my neighborhood.

Statement 2: In generally, members

of the CoR from my governorate are

mostly unresponsive to the needs

of my neighborhood.

Page 21: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

INA favorability drops especially among base

23 25 12

46

0 15

62

3

50 56 57

32

55 56

24

62

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Total Baghdad South West North Shia Non-KurdSunni

Kurd

% Favorable % Unfavorable

Page 20

Δ favorable

Jul ’11 -10 -16 -10 -9 -3 -10 -19 -3

Page 22: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

16

14

10

6 6 5 5

2

5

16

13

0

5

10

15

20

IslamicDa'wa Party

Iraqi Nat'lAccord

Sadr Trend ISCI PUK Iraqi Frontfor Nat'lDialogue

KDP Nat'lReformTrend

Others (No vote) (Und/ref)

National parliamentary vote

Page 21

Now let me ask you about the next parliamentary elections. Imagine those elections are today. I am going to give you a ballot with a list of political parties, and I will read the choices to you. Place a mark next to the political party you would vote for, if the elections were held today. Once you make your mark, place your ballot in the box/bag, because this is a secret ballot.

Δ July ’11 -2 -7 -- -1 -- +1 -1 -- -3 +9 +5

Page 23: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

Parliamentary vote | Baghdad, South, West

23 23

9

20

9

23

13

18

3

8 8

2 3 0

17

0

10

20

30

Baghdad South West

Islamic Da'wa Party Iraqi National Accord Sadr Trend ISCI IFND

Page 22

Place a mark next to the political party you would vote for, if the elections were held today.

Δ July ’11 -2 -8 -1 -2 -- -4 -4 +3 -3 -- -- -11 -1 -1 +5

Page 24: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

Most want a change from Maliki’s direction

28

82

42 39

23 2

53

12

45 45 49

81

0

20

40

60

80

100

Total Da'wa voters Sadr Trendvoters

ISCI voters Undecidedvoters

INA voters

Page 23

Statement 1: I want to continue in

the direction Nouri al-Maliki is

taking Iraq.

Statement 2: I want to go in a very

different direction than Nouri al-

Maliki is taking Iraq.

Now I'm going to read you some pairs of statements. For each one, I want you to tell me which choice comes closer to your point of view.

Page 25: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

1

4

4

5

5

6

7

8

43

49

50

0 10 20 30 40 50

Foreign businesses

Iraqi businesses

Too many foreign workers

Neighboring countries

Iraqi workers lack skills and ed

The United States

International economic conditions

Reliance on imported goods

The Council of Representatives

Nouri al-Maliki

Government ministers

Ministers, Maliki blamed for unemployment situation

Page 24

When you think of the current unemployment situation, which TWO of the following do you think are mostly to blame?

Page 26: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

Sadr favorability improves

38

45

35 36

50

42

49

42

0

20

40

60

Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11

% Favorable % Unfavorable

Page 25

Now, I’d like to rate your feelings toward some people, things, and organizations, with ―100‖

meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; ―0‖ meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and ―50‖

meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable.

Page 27: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

Favorability among young men | non-North

47 39

28 33 29 17 13 12

35 47 44

51 52 53

68 72

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Sadr Maliki Hakim Allawi Jaafari Nujaifi Mutlaq Hashemi

% Favorable % Unfavorable

Page 26

Δ Favorable

Jul ’11 +6 +2 +5 -8 -7 -13 -6 -11

Page 28: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

Favorability of national leaders | non-North, class

52

35 24

37 35 39 42 38 24

26 36

51 44

50 47 42 45 58

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Sadr Maliki Allawi Sadr Maliki Allawi Sadr Maliki Allawi

% Favorable % Unfavorable

Page 27

Poorer class (27 percent)

Middle class (64 Percent)

Richer class (6 percent)

Page 29: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

Sadr stronger in urban areas | non-North

45 33 37

31 33 33

33

48 43 51 48 51

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural

% Favorable % Unfavorable

Page 28 Sadr Maliki Allawi

Page 30: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

Sadr strongest among poorer class | non-North

16

19

22

10

19 18 18

10

7 6 7 8

4

8

0

17

12 11

0

10

20

30

Poorer class Middle class Richer class

Islamic Da'wa Party Iraqi National Accord Sadr Trend

ISCI IFND Und/DK/Ref

Page 29

Place a mark next to the political party you would vote for, if the elections were held today.

Page 31: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

Parliamentary vote | Baghdad, South, West

23 23

9

20

9

23

13

18

3

8 8

2 3 0

17

0

10

20

30

Baghdad South West

Islamic Da'wa Party Iraqi National Accord Sadr Trend ISCI IFND

Page 30

Place a mark next to the political party you would vote for, if the elections were held today.

Δ July ’11 -2 -8 -1 -2 -- -4 -4 +3 -3 -- -- -11 -1 -1 +5

Page 32: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

Lowest levels of right direction among Sunnis

59

43 45 44

32

21 24

11

49

67

49 48

0

20

40

60

80

Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11

Shia right directionNon-Kurd Sunni right directionKurd right direction

Page 31

Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction?

Page 33: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

Sunnis most negative about personal economic situation

37

42

16

49

27 25

40

19

0

10

20

30

40

50

Total Shia Non-Kurd Sunni Kurd

Better Worse

Page 32

How do you think the financial position of your own household will change over the next 12 months – do you think it will get worse, or do you think it will get better?

Page 34: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

Sunnis least optimism about the future of Iraq

52

58

34

53

35 32

42

34

0

20

40

60

Total Shia Sunni Kurd

Page 33

Statement 1: I am optimistic about

the future of Iraq.

Statement 2: I am pessimistic

about the future of Iraq.

Now I'm going to read you some pairs of statements. For each one, I want you to tell me which choice comes closer to your point of view.

Page 35: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

Sunni security concerns hit one-year high

45

16

32

45

0

10

20

30

40

50

Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11

Security concern among Sunnis

Page 34

Please tell me which TWO of these are the most important for the government to address. (SECURITY among Sunnis only)

Page 36: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

60

36

52

34

60

33

0

20

40

60

80

Shia Non-KurdSunni

Kurd

Fairly Unfairly

Sunnis feel they are treated unfairly by society, government

Page 35

In general, do you think people in your sect are treated fairly or unfairly within Iraq’s SOCIETY?

62

23

48

32

75

39

0

20

40

60

80

Shia Non-KurdSunni

Kurd

Fairly Unfairly

In general, do you think people in your sect are treated fairly or unfairly within Iraq’s GOVERNMENT?

Page 37: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

Sunnis least likely to think Iraq is a real democracy

43 46

16

73

46 43

69

21

0

20

40

60

80

Total Shia Non-Kurd Sunni Kurd

Page 36

Statement 1: Iraq today is a real

democracy.

Statement 2: Iraq today is not a

real democracy.

Now I'm going to read you some pairs of statements. For each one, I want you to tell me which choice comes closer to your point of view.

Δ real dem.

Jul ’11 +8 +12 +2 +5

Page 38: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

Sunnis least likely to participate in the next elections

76

51

35

0

20

40

60

80

Kurd likely voters Shia likely voters Non-Kurd Sunni likelyvoters

Page 37

Page 39: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

Mood in Kurdistan improves

85

70 74

78

9

22 22 15

0

20

40

60

80

100

Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11

Right direction Wrong direction

Page 38

Generally speaking, do you think that things in Kurdistan are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction?

Page 40: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

Perceptions of jobs and corruption worsen in North Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq. (NORTH ONLY)

Page 39

84

75

59

44

43

33

12

19

34

43

52

62

-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100

Job opportunities

Corruption

Sectarianism

Political instability

Security

Electricity supply

Worse Better

Page 41: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

8

46

7

66

27

12

70

61

40

44

16

59

22

31

22

51

0 20 40 60 80

Security

Corruption

Basic services

Jobs and unemployment

Baghdad West South North

Job and corruption concerns in the North Please tell me which TWO of these are the most important for the government to address.

Page 40

Page 42: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

Barzani favorability increases | North only

61 49

41 26

23 26 31

47

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Barzani Talabani Salih Mustafa

% Favorable % Unfavorable

Page 41

Δ Favorable

Jul ’11 +8 -14 -4 +2

Page 43: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

74

49

34

65

7 20

35

17 0

20

40

60

80

100

Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11

Barzani favorability increase comes from PUK supporters

83 94 94 91

5 6 3 1

0

20

40

60

80

100

Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11

Favorable UnfavorableKDP party identification

PUK party identification

North only

Page 44: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

KDP continues to have strongest support in North

32 30

35 36

35

21

31

28

9 16

14

5 7

5 3

5

9

17

10

18

0

10

20

30

40

Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11

KDP PUK Goran Movement KIU Undecided

Page 43

Place a mark next to the political party you would vote for, if the elections were held today. (NORTH ONLY)

Page 45: November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period - ndi.org · November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period ... Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq

November 2011

Goran and Mustafa favorability | North only

21 26

52 47

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Goran Mustafa

% Favorable % Unfavorable

Page 44

Δ Favorable

Jul ’11 -2 +2

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November 2011

Parliamentary vote | North only, gender/age

33

40

27

45

22 23

37

32

9 5 5 0 5

10 1

3

0

10

20

30

40

50

Young women Young men Older women Older men

KDP PUK KIU Goran

Page 45

Place a mark next to the political party you would vote for, if the elections were held today.

Δ July ’11 -7 +1 +5 -12 +10 -6 +3 -12 -4 -3 +2 -6 +7 -2 -3 -7

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November 2011

PUK favorability slightly increases | North only

49 47

22 21 13

30 27

49 52 50

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

KDP PUK Kurdistan IslamicUnion

Goran Movement KOMAL

% Favorable % Unfavorable

Page 46

Δ Favorable

Jul ’11 -7 +3 +5 -2 --

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November 2011

Talabani favorability down | North only

61 49

41 26

23 26 31

47

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Barzani Talabani Salih Mustafa

% Favorable % Unfavorable

Page 47

Δ Favorable

Jul ’11 +8 -14 -4 +2

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November 2011

KDP more favorable among opponent supporters

83

60

36

76

9 16

47

9

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

KDP PUK KDP PUK

% Favorable % Unfavorable

Page 48

Favorable ratings among

KDP Voters

Favorable ratings among

PUK Voters

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November 2011

Few hear about their members of the CoR

29 25

32 27

36

65 72

60

70

58

0

20

40

60

80

Total Baghdad South West North

Very often/occasionally Little/never

Page 49

How often do you hear about members of the Council of Representatives from your governorate, either directly from the members or indirectly through the news? Would you say you hear about members of the Council of Representatives from your governorate very often, occasionally, only a little, or never?

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November 2011

3 1 4 2

6 15

28

11 9 15

78

67

79

88

75

0

20

40

60

80

100

Total Baghdad South West North

Yes, face-to-face Yes, other contact No

Even fewer have had contact with CoR member

Page 50

Have you ever had contact with a Member of the Council of Representatives, either through a face-to-face meeting, phone call, written letter, or some other form of contact?

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November 2011

Open local offices where citizens can meet with their members of the Council of

Representatives and his or her assistants face-to-face.

Hold a neighborhood listening tour, meaning a series of meetings to visit and

talk with his or her constituents. Hold monthly Q and A sessions where the public can ask questions to their

members of the CoR and discuss their issues or pending legislation.

Promise not to appoint any members of their own family to his or her staff.

Provide a telephone number that people can call to have their concerns heard.

Distribute questionnaires in order to inquire about local problems.

Provide regular information to people about results of his or her work in the

Council of Representatives in a form of a newsletter.

Create a website where people can submit their concerns for the MP to review.

28

29

30

36

38

39

43

46

62

61

64

69

69

72

76

76

0 20 40 60 80

Much more favorable Somewhat more favorable

Offices, listening tours, and Q & A most effective

Page 51

I’m going to read a list of things a member of the Council of Representatives could do. For each one, tell me how that would make you feel about that Council of Representatives member?

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November 2011

35 33 33 31

48

86 86 85 89 82

3 4 3 2 2 9 9 8 9 7

0

20

40

60

80

100

Support, strongly Support, somewhatOppose, strongly Oppose, somewhat

Strong support for constituency offices

Page 52

Now, imagine that a member of the Council of Representatives from your governorate opened an office in your area. The office would serve as an accessible location where people can voice their concerns, present various initiatives, or receive help with particular issues from the Council of Representative member and his or her assistants. Would you support or oppose the idea of having such an office in your area?

Total Baghdad North South West

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November 2011

57 52

56 53

73

36 41

36 42

16

0

20

40

60

80

Total Baghdad South West North

Very/Somewhat likely Little/Not likely

A majority say they are likely to visit a constituency office

Page 53

If a member of the Council of Representatives from your governorate opened an office in your area, how likely would you be to visit that office if you needed help with a certain issue – very likely, somewhat likely, just a little likely, or not likely at all?

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November 2011

3

4

6

7

7

14

15

20

50

64

0 20 40 60 80

Conditions of roads and public transport

Possible laws for parliament

Neighborhood disputes

Education issues

Ration card issues

Financial assistance issues like pensions

Security issues

Housing issues

Services, like electricity or water

Jobs

Iraqis would discuss jobs and services with their member Now I would like to read you a list of issues that people might go to discuss with a member of the Council of Representatives or his/her assistants at their office. Which TWO of the items in this list would you go to discuss at the member’s office?

Page 54

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November 2011

38 34 34 32

63 57

61 60 66

25

0

20

40

60

80

Total Baghdad South West North

A lot / Some confidence A little / No confidence

Limited confidence that members can help through visit

Page 55

And how much confidence do you have that the member of the Council of Representatives from your governorate could help you with these issues if you brought it to them at their office? Do you have a lot of confidence your member could help, some confidence, just a little confidence, or no confidence at all that your member could help with that issue?

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November 2011

9

10

23

26

26

31

33

0 10 20 30 40

Members don't know how to solve my problem

Members wouldn't understand my problem

Offices would not be open often enough

Members would not listen

Members don't have power to solve myproblems

You would only talk to assistant, not member

Offices would be too hard to get to

Unable to get to offices, unresponsiveness deter visits I’d like to read you a few concerns some people might have about visiting a local member of the Council of Representative’s office. Which TWO of the following would be your biggest concerns?

Page 56

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November 2011

Best messages about being closer, listening to the people

32

36

36

39

39

42

66

68

68

68

75

74

0 20 40 60 80

Very convincing Somewhat convincing

Page 57

I’d like to read a few statements a member of the Council of Representatives might say to convince you to visit his or her office in your area. For each one, please tell me how convincing that is – very convincing, somewhat convincing, just a little convincing, or not convincing at all?

[CLOSER] How can politicians all the way in Baghdad help average Iraqis? I believe that

members must be representatives of the people. Instead of staying in Baghdad, I will spend ½ my

time in local office so I can be closer to the people and understand their concerns.

[LISTEN] The only way to understand people’s concerns is to listen to their concerns. That’s why

I am opening offices in my region – so I can listen firsthand to the problems that my constituents

have and then will do my best to solve them.

[ACTION] I’m opening an office not as a publicity stunt, but to show I’m serious about addressing

concerns of people. This office isn’t about listening and talking, it’s about finding solutions to people’s

problems. This is about action not talk.

[FOREIGNERS] Foreigners have too much influence on what happens in Iraq. It’s time for Iraqi people

to have the bigger voice in running our country. That’s why I am going to open offices to set up meetings

with the people so we can move Iraq in the direction we want to go, not where foreigners want to take us.

[RESPONSIVE] Our government knows and understands people’s concerns, but we’re not responding to

those concerns. I’m opening an office in your area to listen and work with average Iraqis to understand

their concerns and find solutions to them.

[PEOPLE FIRST] The problem with Iraqi elected officials is they’re too self-interested & busy enriching

themselves & their families to help average Iraqis. My priority is people first, hearing concerns,

addressing needs. I’m opening a local office so I can be the voice of the people in the CoR.

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November 2011

Most have heard about CSOs

78 76 77

89

59

19 22 18

9

37

0

20

40

60

80

100

Total Baghdad South West North

Yes No

Page 58

Have you heard anything about Civil Society Organizations, or CSOs, in Iraq?

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November 2011

CSOs have relatively weak favorability

22 17 25 31 7

37 35 27

43 53

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Total Baghdad South West North

% Favorable % Unfavorable

Page 59

% ID 77 72 74 89 67

% neutral 17 19 22 15 6

Now, I’d like to rate your feelings toward some people, things, and organizations, with ―100‖

meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; ―0‖ meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and ―50‖

meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable.

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November 2011

51

39

54 58

51

30

39

26 30

27

0

20

40

60

Total Baghdad South West North

Very / Somewhat important A little / Not important

Majority think CSOs are important in Iraq

Page 60

Some civil society organizations, or CSOs, advocate on your behalf on issues such as human rights, women’s rights, youth, family affairs, or provide humanitarian assistance. How important do you think these CSO efforts are in Iraq – very important, somewhat important, just a little important, or not important at all?

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November 2011

88

69

25

9

27

14 0

20

40

60

80

100

Heard a lot about CSOs Heard some about CSOs Heard little or nothingabout CSOs

Very / Somewhat important A little / Not important

Importance of CSOs based on how much heard

Page 61

Some civil society organizations, or CSOs, advocate on your behalf on issues such as human rights, women’s rights, youth, family affairs, or provide humanitarian assistance. How important do you think these CSO efforts are in Iraq – very important, somewhat important, just a little important, or not important at all?

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November 2011

8

10

11

12

14

17

24

29

49

0 10 20 30 40 50

Educating Iraqis

Training and skills-building of gov officials

Gather info/studies to inform decisions

Pushing for change of policies and/or laws

Monitoring elections

Help gov understand public's needs

Training and skills-building of Iraqis

Monitoring the gov and its policies

Providing humanitarian services

Main focus of CSOs should be humanitarian services Now I want to read you a list of different activities CSOs can undertake. I want you to pick the top TWO activities that you think are the most important for CSOs in Iraq to engage in.

Page 62

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November 2011

49

36

56

46

55

31 35

31 35

20

0

20

40

60

Total Baghdad South West North

Not a strong desire for CSOs to play a policy role

Page 63

Statement 1: Civil society organizations

are only useful for humanitarian

issues, like relief for IDPs and helping

widows and orphans.

Statement 2: Aside from humanitarian

role, CSOs should play a larger role

in creating good public policies and

holding government accountable.

Now I'm going to read you some pairs of statements. For each one, I want you to tell me which choice comes closer to your point of view.

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November 2011

19

9

18

24 29

50

56

46 49 47

0

20

40

60

Total Baghdad South West North

CSOs not viewed as impacting Iraqis lives

Page 64

Statement 1: Civil society organizations

have had an impact on my life.

Statement 2: Civil society

organizations have had no impact on

my life.

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November 2011

1

8

8

11

12

14

22

39

50

0 10 20 30 40 50

Meeting with police

Meeting with tribal leaders

Meeting with a political party

Using civil society organizations

Meeting with government ministers

Communicating with provincial councils

Communicating with Council of Reps

Voting in elections

Protesting in the streets

Majority views protests as best way to communicate to govt What do you think are the TWO best ways for average Iraqis to communicate their needs to the central government?

Page 65

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November 2011

35

23

33

42 43 43

52

45

38

31

0

20

40

60

Total Baghdad South West North

Very / Somewhat responsive A little / Not responsive

Mixed reviews on CSOs responsiveness

Page 66

In general, how responsive do you think civil society organizations are to the needs and concerns of your neighborhood – very responsive, somewhat responsive, just a little responsive, or not responsive at all?

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November 2011

49 49 45

20 19

32

0

20

40

60

Total Non-North North

Independent Affiliated

CSOs viewed and preferred to be independent

Page 67

In your opinion, are most CSOs in Iraq independent OR affiliated with a certain political party?

56 59

42

13 10

31

0

20

40

60

Total Non-North North

Independent Affiliated

In your opinion, should most CSOs in Iraq be independent OR affiliated with a certain political party?

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November 2011

21 20

29

42 42 45

0

10

20

30

40

50

Total Non-North North

More capable Less capable

CSOs affiliated with parties seen as less capable, influential

Page 68

Do you think that a CSO affiliated with a political party is more or less capable to serve you and your needs?

20 19

30

41 40 43

0

10

20

30

40

50

Total Non-North North

More capable Less capable

Do you think that a CSO affiliated with a political party is more or less capable to influence the government?

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November 2011

6

7

10

13

13

17

24

42

0 10 20 30 40 50

Political parties

Foreign governments

Individual Iraqis

International businesses

Iraqi businesses

The provincial councils

The federal government

International organizations

Preference for international funding of CSOs Now I am going to read a list of potential sources of funding for CSOs. From this list, who do you think should help fund CSOs in Iraq? You can select as many as you think should apply.

Page 69

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November 2011

3

5

11

14

15

27

61

0 20 40 60 80

Received training by a CSO

Received educational material from CSO

Received assistance from a CSO

Have friend/family involved with a CSO

Have met with CSO workers

Viewed advertisement about CSO

Heard about CSOs through the media

Most have heard about CSOs through the media

[IF HAVE HEARD ABOUT CSOs] And how have you heard about CSOs?

Page 70

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November 2011

3

3

4

5

10

12

13

43

53

0 20 40 60

Meeting at universities

Through political parties

Through professional unions

SMS texts

Online social networking sites

Through the Mukhtar (local leader)

Meetings at mosques and churches

Public meetings in the community

Through the media

Media, meetings best for members, CSOs to communicate I’m going to show you a card that has written some ways that people gain and receive information from CSOs and their members of the Council of Representatives. From this list, which TWO sources do you trust most for information?

Page 71