november 10, 2005samsi longitudinal working group1 computing confidence intervals for predicting new...
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November 10, 2005 SAMSI Longitudinal Working Group 1
Computing Confidence Intervals for Predicting New Observations
in the Linear Mixed Model
Lloyd J. Edwards Kunthel ByDepartment of Biostatistics, UNC-CH
A. Jackson Stenner Gary L. Williamson
Robert F. (Robin) BakerMetaMetrics, Inc.
November 10, 2005 SAMSI Longitudinal Working Group 2
Outline
• Introduction
• Basic Work with Growth Curves
• Prediction Error in the Mixed Linear Model
• New Software
November 10, 2005 SAMSI Longitudinal Working Group 3
Introduction• MetaMetrics’ perspective
– Unification of measurement– Characterization of measurement error– Life-span developmental approach– Fitting models to data vs. fitting data to
models
• Longitudinal Working Group– Mutual interests (growth, mixed models, etc.)– Collaboration (theoretical, practical interests)– Summer GRA (production of new software)
November 10, 2005 SAMSI Longitudinal Working Group 4
Growth Curve Basics
• Growth Model– Multilevel formulation– Mixed Model
• Data Sets– NC– Palm Beach
• Example
November 10, 2005 SAMSI Longitudinal Working Group 5
Growth Model
Multilevel formulation
Level 1: Lti = 0i + 1iTIMEti + eti
Level 2: 0i = 00 + r0i
1i = 10 + r1i
Mixed model formulation
Lti = 00 + 10TIMEti + r0i + r1iTIMEti + eti
November 10, 2005 SAMSI Longitudinal Working Group 6
NC Longitudinal Data Analyses End-of-Grade Reading in Lexiles
Six-Wave Panel: Grades 3-8, 1998-2003 N=66,013
Two-Level Unconditional Linear Growth Model
Fixed Effect Estimate SE t prob Average initial status, 00 703.9 0.9 812.55 <.0001
Average rate of growth, 10 87.8 0.1 783.04 <.0001
Random Effect Variance SE z prob Level 1 (temporal variation) Within Student, ti 8941 24.6 363.35 <.0001
Level 2 (between students) Individual initial status, i0 44,859 273.0 164.32 <.0001
Individual rate of growth, i1 319 4.8 66.70 <.0001
November 10, 2005 SAMSI Longitudinal Working Group 7
Prediction Scenarios forTwo-Level Models
Prediction and prediction intervals for:• all observations in the data set
• one student in the data set, on future measurement occasions (given yi, Xi, Zi)
• a new student who is not in the data set
November 10, 2005 SAMSI Longitudinal Working Group 8
General Mixed ModelFormulation
Prediction Limits of the form:
iiiii ebZβXy
)ˆvar(ˆ 2/1, iipmi yyty
November 10, 2005 SAMSI Longitudinal Working Group 9
Characterizing prediction error
• Distinctions– Simple linear case
versus
– Mixed Model analog
versus
)ˆ( 0yVar )ˆ( 0Var
)ˆ( ii yyVar )ˆ(iiyVar bμ
November 10, 2005 SAMSI Longitudinal Working Group 10
Characterizing prediction error
• Benefits– obtain best predicted status– state confidence limits for prediction– reduce apparent measurement error– consistent with a parametric form
November 10, 2005 SAMSI Longitudinal Working Group 11
New Software
• SAS IML
• Current features– Three prediction scenarios– Simple assumptions for error covariances– Restricted to two-level MLMs – Limited ability to incorporate covariates
• Available at: http://www.unc.edu/~kby/
November 10, 2005 SAMSI Longitudinal Working Group 12
Further Research
• Assumption of i.i.d. within-subject errors
• Literature suggests more complex error covariance structures.
• Chi and Reinsel (1989, JASA) extend to AR(1) errors
• We extend to general within-subject error covariance structure.
November 10, 2005 SAMSI Longitudinal Working Group 13
Closing
Third Lexile National Reading Conference
June 19-21, 2006
Developing Tomorrow’s Readers...Today
http://www.Lexile.com