On the Carbon Myopia:Three dangerous fallacies about the CO2 monster

• A “magical” CO2 knob for controlling weather and climate simply DOES NOT EXIST.

• Atmospheric CO2 levels are controlled by temperature and other biological/chemical variables not the other way around.

• CO2 is not an “air pollutant”: It is food for plants and marine life!

But I thought scientists were able to confirm the CO2greenhouse effects from spectral fingerprinting?

Adopted from presentation by Professor John Harries of Imperial College, UK (September 4, 2009)

The difference between calculated and observed spectra: Cancellation of positive and negative biases between window and H2O vib-rot portion

Huang Yi (2008) Phd Thesis (Princeton) + Huang et al. (2007) GRL

But wait, why don’t they show the difference for all the available spectrum/wavelengths?

Huang Yi (2008) Phd Thesis (Princeton) + Huang et al. (2007) GRL

Large differences between computed and observed (AIRS) spectrum near the CO2 feature at 15 µm

Huang Yi (2008) Phd Thesis (Princeton) + Huang et al. (2007) GRL

Rough agreement here is deceptive!

Climate politics?

How well can simulations replicate the real-world observations?

Brinley and Allan (2003) Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol. 129, 2971-2988

NOT very well!!!April-June 1997 (IMG) minus 1970 (IRIS) (30°N to 30°S tropical oceans)

One more serious question: Can current climate model forcingsexplain the spatial and temporal signatures of decadal OLR variations?

Top of atmosphere broadband radiative fluxes derived from satellite measurements exhibit surprisingly large decadal variability in the

tropics, which appears to be related to changes in cloudiness. Climate models fail to reproduce these changes, even when all of the

currently known climate forcing agents are prescribed. The interannual variability and spatial signal of the observed changes are

analyzed and compared to various configurations of the Hadley Center climate model. Applying EOF analysis to the spatial patterns of the variability shows that these are dominated by El Nino in both the satellite data and the model. However, the second EOF reveals the pattern due to the observed decadal-scale variation in outgoing

longwave radiation (OLR), but this is not captured by the climate model. This suggests that either the model lacks some internal

physical process or some additional external forcing that is responsible for the observed changes in OLR.

Allan and Slingo (2002) Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 29, 2001GL014620

CO

2C

once

ntra

tion

(ppm

v)

YEAR

CO2 is rising rapidly!

CO

2C

once

ntra

tion

(ppm

v) Air Tem

perature Anom

aly (°C)

YEAR

…But global temperature isn’t rising!

A better metric for testing the predicted effects of increased greenhouse effect from rising CO2:

Increasing Ocean Heat Content!

Doug Smith, UK Met. Office, private communication July 8th, 2009

Real world data do not support the ocean heat Real world data do not support the ocean heat accumulation in the computer models!accumulation in the computer models!

Bob Tisdale (February 2nd, 2010-corrected version)

Model predictionsModel predictions

Real-world data

“Writing in 2005, Hansen, Willis, Schmidt et al. suggested that GISS model projections had been

verified by a solid decade of increasing ocean heat (1993 to 2003). This was regarded as further

confirmation the IPCC’s AGW hypothesis. Their expectation was that the Earth’s climate system would continue accumulating heat more or less monotonically. Now that heat accumulation has stopped (and perhaps even reversed), the tables have turned. The same criteria used to support their hypothesis, is now being used to falsify it.”

William diPuccio, May 5th, 2009

“No amount of experimentation

can ever prove me right; a single

experiment can prove me wrong.”

Albert Einstein

Oceanic warming from below?

von Schuckmann et al. (2009) Journal of Geophysical Research, vol. 114, 2008JC005237

Oceanic warming from below?

August 12, 2009Dear Dr. Soon,

Thanks for your interest in our paper. We do not distribute the time series as they should not be used without the explanations given in the paper.

Best wishes,

Karina von Schuckmann

2010

CO2 Greenhouse Effect Warming Venus?Naaah, not really!!! It is really the relative

distance from the Sun and warming effects from sulfuric acid clouds on Venus!

FactsVenus: atmosphere is 97% CO2, mean surface temperature of 460°C or 860°F

Mars: atmosphere is 95% CO2, mean surface temperature of -46°C or -51°F

Remember that Mercury has no “atmosphere”, its warmest temperature can reached 427°C or 801°F (slightly below Venus’s but not that much lower!)

Popular claim of the present CO2 level of 380 ppm never been seen since at least the past 800,000 years is highly questionable and not likely correct.

The level of atmospheric CO2 is controlled by temperature and other climatic variables not the other way around.

The COThe CO22 dome dome phenomenon in large phenomenon in large urban cities is caused urban cities is caused by by an ineffective COan ineffective CO22sink sink during nighttime during nighttime

and during winterand during winter

Extremely high COExtremely high CO22 levels during winter at SLC!levels during winter at SLC!

Salt Lake City, UTSalt Lake City, UT

Utah HistoryUtah History

Salt Lake Valley ~1870s

Salt Lake Valley 2004

No urban CONo urban CO22 dome dome –– Low COLow CO22

Urban COUrban CO22 dome dome –– High COHigh CO22

But where is the winter warming impact of the high CO2 levels at SLC in 2001-2010?

BASIC of ocean pH

Acidification of the ocean?- anomalies are within natural variation

Bethke (1996): Computed pHlines for ocean water with diff. CO2 in air, WITHOUT minerals present

Data points for pHof surface water in

Western Pacific

←

←

←

Source: Tom Segalstad, Aug 9, 2008 33rd IGC Talk at Oslo

World Ocean pH (top 50m): Large range of values; highly acidic in upwelling zone

Pacific Ocean pH (transect from Kodiak to Oahu 152W): Large range of values; more acidic in cooler polar waters with the lowest pH in

subsurface oxygen minimum zones (200 m subarctic to 1000 m depth subtropics)

Byrne et al. (2010) Geophysical Research Letters, in press, 2009GL040999

“The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency [1976; Quality Criteria for

Water] recommended a range of pH in seawater between 6.5 and 8.5 for

marine aquatic life, but not more than 0.2 pH units outside the normally occurring range.”

Loaiciga (2006) Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 33, 2006GL026305

What to do when the predicted pH decrease is small over next 100 years?Zoom 1000 years into the Future!

Scott Doney (March 2006) Scientific American, p. 63

with the unrealistic scenario of CO2 reaching 712 ppm by 2100 and peaked of 1900 ppm by 2300 AD!

Increased atmospheric CO2 also enhances marine life, in contradiction to previous claims where lower pH in

the ocean was said to be dissolving calcium material (i.e., CaCO3) and

therefore causing harm to marine life.Debra Iglesias-Rodriguez et al. (2008)

Surprise New Scientific Finding!Surprise New Scientific Finding!

Iglesias-Rodriguez et al. (2008) Science, vol. 320, 336-340

Surprising New Research ResultsIncreasing CO2 enhances growth of phytoplankton

“These results are in agreement with previous observations that

[single-celled algae and phytoplankton] are abundant

throughout past periods of ocean acidification, such as that which

occurred roughly 55 million years ago.” [i] (Dr. Debra Iglesias-Rodriduez, 2009)

[i] http://sciencewatch.com/dr/fbp/2009/09aprfbp/09aprfbpRod/.

How do you explain these images of dying shells under low pH (acidic) conditions in the November

2007 issue of National Geographic Magazine?

Update: this picture was also used in Dr. Jane Lubchenco, Administrator of NOAA in her December 2, 2009 House testimony

““Most of these experiments used Most of these experiments used semisemi--continuous cultures, in which continuous cultures, in which the carbonate system was modified the carbonate system was modified by the addition of acid and/or base to by the addition of acid and/or base to control pH.control pH.”” —— Debora Debora IglesiasIglesias--RodroguezRodroguez et al. et al. (2008)(2008)

“[Szmant] faults previous lab studies because they used hydrochloric acid, not carbon dioxide, to lower the pH of the water in the calcification studies.”

— Elizabeth Elizabeth PennisiPennisi (2009) quoting (2009) quoting AlinaAlina SzmantSzmant, a coral ecologist, a coral ecologist

““So who in the ocean is affected by this So who in the ocean is affected by this [acidification; [acidification; ‘‘Osteoporosis of the Osteoporosis of the

seasea’’]? Any plants or animals that has a ]? Any plants or animals that has a shell or skeleton made of calcium shell or skeleton made of calcium

carbonate [or chalk]. The hard parts of carbonate [or chalk]. The hard parts of many familiar animals such as oysters, many familiar animals such as oysters,

clams, corals, clams, corals, lobsters,lobsters, crabscrabs …… are are made of calcium carbonate. made of calcium carbonate. ””

—— Dr. Jane Dr. Jane LubchencoLubchenco, Under Secretary of Commerce for , Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and NOAA Administrator, Oceans and Atmosphere and NOAA Administrator,

December 2, 2009, testimony on December 2, 2009, testimony on ““The AdministrationThe Administration’’s s View on the State of Climate ScienceView on the State of Climate Science”” (1:30(1:30--1:55 of her 1:55 of her recorded testimony recorded testimony http://http://globalwarming.house.gov/pubs?idglobalwarming.house.gov/pubs?id=0014=0014))

Normal CO2(400 ppm)

High CO2(~7 times larger)

Dr. Justin Ries, University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill

Normal CO2 (400 ppm)

High CO2(~7 times larger)

Dr. Justin Ries, University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill

Center for the study of CO2 and Global Change

“The more acidic the water, the higher biological productivity becomes and the denser the

amount of life. In the sea this is borne out by the observed fact that highly productive upwelling areas are more acidic. In other words,

acidic sea are a good thing.”---Dr. J Floor Anthoni of www.seafriends.org. nz

Why do some marine organisms thrive under high CO2

conditions?

Short answer: Protective external

organic layer!

“The overwhelming volume of scientific evidence collated by the IPCC documenting the dangers of human-induced climate change, of

which ocean acidification is only one, should end the lingering CO2

emissions reduction debate.”---p. 337 of John Guinotte and Victoria Fabry (2008) Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci. vol. 1134, 320-342

Persisting attempts to silent scientific debate? The scaremongering must continue?

Burden of proof in science(1) It is for those that propose a claim

or problem to show all evidence and proof for their proposition

(2) It is not for the skeptical scientists to prove their proposition is wrong or internally-consistent

(3)The pseudo-scientific ground of “precaution” does not apply and must not be tolerated based on emotions or popularity contests