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February 2017 Norwich Economic Barometer

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Page 1: Norwich Economic Barometer - Norfolk Chamber of Commerce · Page 3 Norwich Economic Barometer Business news Economy The first estimate of UK GDP for 2016 Q4 showed quarterly growth

February 2017

Norwich Economic Barometer

Page 2: Norwich Economic Barometer - Norfolk Chamber of Commerce · Page 3 Norwich Economic Barometer Business news Economy The first estimate of UK GDP for 2016 Q4 showed quarterly growth

Page 2 Norwich Economic Barometer

Contents

Business news 03 Economy 03 Business 08 Education 10

Claimant count unemployment 11

Ward level claimant count unemployment 12

Claimant count unemployment: age and duration 13

Housing benefit 15

Young people (16-18 years) Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET) 16

Average house prices 16

Appendix 19

Page 3: Norwich Economic Barometer - Norfolk Chamber of Commerce · Page 3 Norwich Economic Barometer Business news Economy The first estimate of UK GDP for 2016 Q4 showed quarterly growth

Page 3 Norwich Economic Barometer

Business news Economy The first estimate of UK GDP for 2016 Q4 showed quarterly growth of 0.6 per cent, the same growth rate as in the two previous quarters and above the 0.5 per cent consensus forecast. This outturn, taken in conjunction with Q3’s gain, means that economic growth in the first six months after the EU referendum was faster than the previous six months.

The UK’s trade deficit narrowed in December; the deficit in goods and services fell to £3.3bn from £3.6bn in November. The ONS said this improvement was mainly due to a £1.1bn increase in exports of goods to non-EU countries. For the October-to-December quarter, the deficit narrowed by £5.6bn to £8.6bn.

Inflation has reached its highest rate for two-and-a-half years, mainly as a result of the rising price of fuel. Annual inflation as measured by the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) reached 1.8 per cent last month, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported, up from a rate of 1.6 per cent in December.

It is the fourth consecutive month that the rate has risen and takes inflation to its highest since June 2014. Fuel prices hit a two-year high in early February, according to the RAC. As well as fuel, the ONS said food prices also contributed to the rise in inflation, as prices were unchanged between December and January, having fallen a year ago. Offsetting these factors, the prices of clothing and footwear fell by more than they did 12 months ago.

Figure 1 Manufacturing Sector PMI

Page 4: Norwich Economic Barometer - Norfolk Chamber of Commerce · Page 3 Norwich Economic Barometer Business news Economy The first estimate of UK GDP for 2016 Q4 showed quarterly growth

Page 4 Norwich Economic Barometer

The UK manufacturing sector experienced further solid growth of production and new orders during February. Although rates of expansion slowed, they remained well above the respective long-run averages. Increased new business inflows were underpinned by improved domestic and overseas demand, the latter aided by the continued weakness of the sterling exchange rate. The seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®) posted 54.6 in February, a three-month low and down further from December’s two-and-a-half year high. However, the PMI was firmly above its long-run average of 51.6 and nonetheless signalled expansion for the seventh successive month. February data pointed to a further marked increase in UK manufacturing production.

Growth remained solid across the three product categories – consumer, intermediate and investment goods – with the steepest increase seen in the latter. Underpinning the latest increase in output was a further solid expansion of new order volumes.

Companies indicated that growth of new business from the domestic market slowed, but noted that this was partly offset by a sharp acceleration in the rate of increase in new export business. New export orders rose for the ninth successive month in February. Where an increase was reported, companies attributed this to improved sales to clients in mainland Europe, the USA, Asia, Australia, Canada and Ireland.

At 52.5 in February, up slightly from 52.2 in January, the seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS UK Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®) registered above the neutral 50.0 threshold for the sixth consecutive month. However, the rate of output growth remained weaker than its post - referendum peak (54.2 in December 2016) and subdued in comparison to the trends seen over the past three-and-a-half years.

UK construction companies recorded a sustained expansion of overall business activity in February, with civil engineering replacing house building as the main growth driver. Residential activity increased at the slowest pace for six months, while commercial building declined for the first time since October 2016. The latest survey revealed a further solid expansion of employment numbers, despite a slowdown in new business growth to its weakest for four months.

Meanwhile, intense cost inflation persisted in February, which was overwhelmingly linked to higher prices for imported materials. Survey respondents noted that the resilient economic backdrop and a stabilisation in client confidence since the EU referendum continued to help drive construction growth in February.

However, there were also reports that demand growth had softened so far in 2017. Reflecting this, incoming new work increased only marginally and at the slowest pace since last October. Some construction companies noted that sharply rising input costs had an adverse impact on decision-making and contributed to delays in contract completions.

Page 5: Norwich Economic Barometer - Norfolk Chamber of Commerce · Page 3 Norwich Economic Barometer Business news Economy The first estimate of UK GDP for 2016 Q4 showed quarterly growth

Page 5 Norwich Economic Barometer

UK service sector firms remained in expansion mode during February, but growth momentum eased further from the 17-month peak seen at the end of 2016.

The slowdown mainly reflected a softer pace of new business growth, which some respondents linked to more cautious spending among consumers. Business confidence nonetheless remained strong, with service providers indicating that optimism was little-changed from the post-referendum high recorded at the start of this year.

Higher business costs were the main negative development in February, with

average input prices rising at the steepest pace since August 2008. This led to the largest increase in prices charged by service providers for almost eight-and-a-half years. At 53.3 in February, the headline seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI® Business Activity Index was down from 54.5 in January but still well above the 50.0 threshold that separates growth from contraction.

The latest reading indicated the slowest expansion of overall business activity since last September. However, the index was broadly in line with its average for 2016 (53.2), to suggest a solid underlying pace of service sector growth so far this year.

Figure 2 Construction sector PMI

Page 6: Norwich Economic Barometer - Norfolk Chamber of Commerce · Page 3 Norwich Economic Barometer Business news Economy The first estimate of UK GDP for 2016 Q4 showed quarterly growth

Page 6 Norwich Economic Barometer

The slump in sterling should prompt a ‘significant readjustment’ of the UK economy away from consumer spending towards exports, although growth will be slower next year and inflation is set to rise, says the EY ITEM Club winter forecast. EY expect the impact of Brexit on the UK economy to be shallower, but more prolonged than forecast in October.

However, there is a sea change coming over the next three years. The fall in the pound will force the economy to be less reliant on consumer spending, leaving growth heavily dependent upon trade performance.

Forecasts for GDP growth in 2017 have been raised to 1.3 per cent whilst 2018 looks tougher with growth forecast to slow to 1 per cent. Exports are set to increase by 3.3 per cent this year and 5.2 per cent

in 2018. Fuelled by rising import costs, Inflation is predicted to rise to 3.1 per cent by the final quarter of 2017, before easing back to 2 per cent.

Retail sales grew at a slower pace in January as consumers reined in spending after Christmas, research from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) shows. It found sales had inched up 0.1 per cent year-on-year, a big slowdown from the 1.7 per cent increase in December and the weakest performance since last August.

The change was largely due to slower non-food sales, although spending on groceries held up. The BRC said consumers were feeling cautious going into the New Year. Looking across the last three months, the UK has seen the slowest growth of the festive period since 2009.

Figure 3 Service sector PMI

Page 7: Norwich Economic Barometer - Norfolk Chamber of Commerce · Page 3 Norwich Economic Barometer Business news Economy The first estimate of UK GDP for 2016 Q4 showed quarterly growth

Page 7 Norwich Economic Barometer

The Bank of England has made another dramatic rise in its growth forecast for this year. It expects the economy to grow 2 per cent in 2017, up from a November forecast of 1.4 per cent, which was itself an upgrade from the 0.8 per cent forecast made in August. The Bank also made a striking forecast about the savings rate, which it expects to fall to 4 per cent, the lowest rate since the early 1960s. As expected the Bank kept interest rates on hold at 0.25 per cent. The raised growth forecast follows much criticism levelled at the Bank for being too gloomy when it drastically cut its growth forecast after June’s vote in favour of Brexit.

The Brexit vote is already having a negative impact on business, a survey of bosses from some of the UK’s biggest companies has suggested. Ipsos Mori found 58 per cent of respondents said their firms had suffered since last June’s exit vote. Nearly a third of respondents thought the referendum had not made any difference, and 11 per cent felt it had been positive. More than 100 bosses of FTSE 500 firms responded to the survey.

Two-thirds of the chairmen, chief executives and other directors who responded thought that their business would be worse off after the UK left the European Union. Meanwhile 45 per cent of the 114 FTSE 500 bosses surveyed expected to feel a negative impact in five years’ time. However, 32 per cent said their business would start to feel the positive effects of leaving the EU in five years’ time. Most of the business leaders (96 per cent) who responded said they were confident their company could adapt to the consequences of leaving the EU.

Most insolvency and restructuring experts believe Brexit will lead to a rise in corporate insolvencies in the next year, and that the result of the vote has hurt businesses’ finances, says a survey of R3 members. Almost three-quarters (72 per cent) of those surveyed believe the

referendum result will cause corporate insolvency numbers to rise by the end of 2017, while over half say business finances have been hurt since June.

According to a TUC report “The impact of increased self-employment and insecure work on the public finances”, an explosion in the number of people in insecure employment is costing the Government £4bn a year. The sharp rise in the number of people working without guaranteed hours or basic employment rights, such as sick pay, holiday pay and a guaranteed minimum wage, has lowered the income tax and National Insurance take.

Self-employed workers also earn significantly less on average than salaried employees so are more likely to rely on in-work benefits such as tax credits and housing benefits. The rise in low-paid self-employment accounts for just over half of the £75m-per-week bill, with the surge in those working zero-hour contracts responsible for the other half.

The amount is equivalent to a quarter of England’s social care budget. The report warns the problem could get worse if current trends continue. Insecure working has grown by more than a quarter over the past five years and now accounts for 1 in 10 (3.1 million) UK workers.

The number of people on controversial zero hours contracts (ZHCs) has reached a record high of 910,000. New figures based on an analysis of ONS data reveal that 110,000 more people were on contracts that do not guarantee work in 2016 compared with the same period in 2015.That’s an increase of nearly 14 per cent, and 30 per cent higher than 2014. In 2005, there were just 100,000 people on ZHCs. But although the new figures are a record, they also reveal a sharp slowing in the rate of increase in the last six months of 2016.

Page 8: Norwich Economic Barometer - Norfolk Chamber of Commerce · Page 3 Norwich Economic Barometer Business news Economy The first estimate of UK GDP for 2016 Q4 showed quarterly growth

Page 8 Norwich Economic Barometer

Businesses in the East of England saw strong demand for their goods and services during January and continued to create new jobs despite a slight slowdown in output growth, according to the latest Lloyds Bank Regional PMI report. Data from January showed that business activity, new orders and employment all continued to increase, and more quickly than the UK average, despite the rate of growth easing when compared with December.

The weak pound continued to have an effect on costs, however, with average prices for raw materials, salaries and fuel rising at the fastest pace in almost six years. This drove many businesses to pass on part of their higher cost burden to customers in the form of raised prices.

The new Apprenticeship Levy, which is set to ‘go live’ next month is still being viewed by manufacturers as a tax on business, with many more firms potentially falling into scope than previously expected, according to an EEF report; EEF is the industry body for engineering and manufacturing employers. Over one-third of manufacturers claim to see no benefits to the scheme.

The squeeze on both family and public finances have been prolonged until well into the 2020s, according to a think tank’s analysis of the Budget. The UK is on course for an unprecedented 15 years of spending cuts and lost pay growth the Resolution Foundation said. It will leave the poorest third of households worse off than in the years after the financial crisis. However, the Treasury has said it has helped poorer workers by increasing the Living Wage.

BusinessFive new business advisers have been recruited by New Anglia Growth Hub to meet increasing demand from firms to use its business support service. The hub, which is funded by the European Regional Development Fund, was set up in 2014 by New Anglia LEP and local authorities to provide a single point of contact for business owners seeking free face-to-face advice and has since worked with over 6,000 businesses and provided over 28,000 hours of support.

More new companies were registered in Norfolk and Suffolk during 2016 than in any previous year. In Norfolk, a total of 4,480 were registered, up from 4,296 in 2015, according to a review of UK company formations by Inform Direct, using data from Companies House and the ONS. The total number of registered companies in Norfolk rose by 5.8 per cent to 34,374. Norwich formed the most new businesses (1,112), followed by Broadland (779) and Breckland (608).

Work is already under way at a new 25-acre site adjacent to Sweet Briar Retail Park, Eskmuir the owner, is proposing a £13m investment into Norwich to extend Sweet Briar Retail Park, improve the choice of shops, create approximately 60-90 new jobs, new pedestrian and cycle links and improvements to access to the retail park and the flow along Sweet Briar Road.

Eskmuir has owned Sweet Briar Retail Park for nearly 30 years. As part of the plans they are proposing works to improve the flow of traffic along Sweet Briar Road by creating a dedicated right-turn lane at the traffic lights that will prevent the blocking of southbound traffic. In addition, there will be an extension of the left-turn exit from the retail park to provide additional capacity at the signal junction and enhanced safer pedestrian and cycle links to the Park.

Page 9: Norwich Economic Barometer - Norfolk Chamber of Commerce · Page 3 Norwich Economic Barometer Business news Economy The first estimate of UK GDP for 2016 Q4 showed quarterly growth

Page 9 Norwich Economic Barometer

The purpose-built Leaf Systems building has opened at Norwich Research Park. This new £5m plant science development hub will promote important vaccine discoveries and it is hoped will attract pharmaceutical giants to Norwich.

The former home of the Eastern Daily Press is being let following a major refurbishment. Four open-plan office suites totalling 21,794 sq ft are being marketed at Lawrence House on St Andrew’s Hill, ranging in size from 3,678 to 7,853 sq ft, are on the ground, first and second floors of the five storey building. Existing tenants include Cooper Lomaz Recruitment, Isodore Goldman Solicitors and the Norfolk Pension Fund. The building is being marketed by joint sole agents Arnolds Keys and Bidwells. Arnold Keys stated that the coming to market of Lawrence house is a sign of continuing buoyancy in the Norwich office market and demand is expected to be strong.

The first phase of a major development in Norwich city centre has been secured after a £22m contract was signed. Developer Orbit has appointed global construction firm ISG to start work on 190 apartments at St Anne’s Quarter, between King Street and Riverside. The contract, which will begin in April, will form part of the overall 437-home, £80m scheme. There have been plans to breathe new life into the area since the 1990s, and the development is seen as the final piece of the jigsaw for regeneration in the King Street area.

Marketing company, Desire Marketing, has seen turnover treble in the year since its merged with another Norfolk business. Last February it joined forces with Traded Network, a firm which specialised in search engines and local directories, and has since taken on three new staff, growing its team to eight members. The company is based in Norwich’s Union Building and has won new clients including brands such as Whistl, Johnston Logistics UK and several Best Western Hotels.

Fast-growing Epos Now has unveiled plans to nearly double its Norwich workforce in 2017 as part of a £10.5m expansion. The tech company wants to add 150 positions this year after taking on two new units at Norwich Business Park. The new jobs will represent £4m of additional salary investment and is also a show of confidence in the city as the base for its continued growth. Further investment of £2.25m will go towards upgrading the new buildings it has taken on near its Whiting Road offices, with other tranches of the £10.5m bill funding software development and the scaling-up of the company’s US arm.

The company, which supplies till equipment and cloud-based software primarily to the SME market, made its first foray into the US last year, opening an office in Orlando and is on track to record million-dollar monthly turnover by the end of 2017.

Norwich entrepreneur Ben Farrin, has developed a new business, Digital Boss, a ‘digital marketing’ company with a strong focus on social media campaigns and content creation. He said a team of four content managers were working on Digital Boss using bespoke social media software developed which targets online users based on their interests and location. Digital Boss and Ben Farrin’s other businesses, The Student Pocket Guide and A6 Records, are based on the top floor of Epic Studios in Norwich’s Magdalen Street. He works with a team of 12 on the different firms, which together have a turnover of £250,000-£300,000.

A jobs fair organised by Norwich City Council and Jobcentre Plus welcomed more than 20 employers alongside training organisations; it was attended by 500 people. Members of the council’s digital inclusion team ran a pop-up help desk to provide support to help set up email addresses, fill out job applications and edit their CVs.

Page 10: Norwich Economic Barometer - Norfolk Chamber of Commerce · Page 3 Norwich Economic Barometer Business news Economy The first estimate of UK GDP for 2016 Q4 showed quarterly growth

Page 10 Norwich Economic Barometer

A University of East Anglia spin-out company pioneering the development of fingerprint drug screening has raised £3m for the next stage of its development. Intelligent Fingerprinting was founded in 2007 and uses nanoparticle technology research developed at the UEA to test for the presence of drugs using just a person’s fingerprint.

The funds have come from an expanded group of UK and US investors and will support the early commercialisation of the company’s first drug screening panel, manufacturing scale-up and the validation of the company’s first products, which will be used in pilot projects on both sides of the Atlantic. The mobile drug screening system is easy-to-use, non-invasive and works in minutes by analysing sweat from a fingerprint – it is the first product of its kind in the world.

Cloud-based tech company Epos Now has been named as one of the finalists for the European Business Awards 2016/17. The firm, based in Norwich Business Park on Whiting Road, is one of 14 UK firms at the final of the European Business Awards, and the only UK company shortlisted for the Customer Focus award. The finalists will undertake an in depth face-to-face interview and the overall winners will be announced at a Gala Final in May in Dubrovnik, Croatia.

Norwich-based enterprise agency NWES has made its second major acquisition in four months, after snapping up a counterpart in the East Midlands. The deal with Nottingham-based NBV builds upon a decade of joint working and will create the country’s biggest enterprise agency. It follows a similar agreement with the London Small Business Centre which was announced in October, and will further broaden the range of business advisers, support and services available to NWES clients. The merger will create a £12m-turnover business with 150 staff.

More than 800 jobs have been lost after the owner of Budgens stores collapsed into administration. Food Retailer Group, an arm of business restructuring specialists Hilco Capital, appointed PwC as administrator last month but the accountancy firm has failed to find a buyer for the group. The job losses include 18 at the Norwich store on Plumstead Road.

The Lansdowne Hotel & Conference Centre in Norwich has been sold off a guide price of £1.5 million to GS Hotels, an expanding local hotel group which currently owns and operates two hotels in the region. The business comprises 38 letting rooms, a bar, dining room and two function rooms.

EducationNorwich University of the Arts (NUA) was ranked in the top five universities in the country for its creative scene by the Which? University Student Survey 2016 which surveys 10,000 undergraduate students.

The University of East Anglia (UEA) was ranked in the top five universities in the country by the Which? University Student Survey 2016 - students ranked it consistently highly across the board in each Which? Category.

A programme offering scholarships to students at the UEA who are keen to get into careers in the energy industry has been extended. The UEA is one of seven universities which will benefit from ScottishPower Renewables’ £100,000 donation. It will fund four UEA scholarships in energy engineering or environment-related subjects, with a total of 28 available across the country. The scholarship covers all enrolment costs and a living allowance.

Page 11: Norwich Economic Barometer - Norfolk Chamber of Commerce · Page 3 Norwich Economic Barometer Business news Economy The first estimate of UK GDP for 2016 Q4 showed quarterly growth

Page 11 Norwich Economic Barometer

Claimant count unemploymentThe claimant count measure counts the number of people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance plus those who claim Universal Credit and are required to seek work and be available for work and replaces the number of people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance as the headline indicator of the number of people claiming benefits principally for the reason of being unemployed. Figure 4 shows

the trend in claimant count unemployment since 2014. Rates have fallen noticeably since the beginning of the period. The rate in the Norwich City Council area started the period significantly above the national, regional, New Anglia LEP and the Norwich urban area rates. During the past year the gap narrowed and again, this month the Norwich rate dropped below the national rate.

Figure 4 Claimant count unemployment 2014 to 2017

Table 1 Claimant count rate unemployment

Great Britain

East of England

New Anglia LEP

Norwich City Council area*

Norwich urban area**

January 2016

December 2016

January2017

Monthly change

Annual change

733,820

47,720

12,650

1,685

2,050

1.8%

1.3%

1.3%

1.8%

1.4%

720,130

46,215

13,120

1,580

1,935

1.8%

1.2%

1.4%

1.7%

1.3%

741,755

48,390

13,920

1,605

1,985

1.9%

1.3%

1.4%

1.7%

1.4%

+ 0.1%

+ 0.1%

0

0

+ 0.1%

+ 0.1%

0

+ 0.1%

0

+ 0.1%

Table 1 shows that the LEP area and city council area saw no change in claimant count unemployment rates over the year; each of the other areas saw a marginal increase. Compared to December, the rates remained unchanged across the region and the city council area; a slight increase was reported in each of the other areas.

* The Norwich City council area comprises the following wards: Bowthorpe, Catton Grove, Crome, Eaton, Lakenham, Mancroft, Mile Cross, Nelson, Sewell, Thorpe Hamlet, Town Close, University, Wensum**The Norwich urban area comprises the following wards: Drayton North, Drayton South, Hellesdon North West, Hellesdon South East, Old Catton and Sprowston West, Sprowston Central, Sprowston East, Taverham North, Taverham South, Thorpe St Andrew North West, Thorpe St Andrew South East, Bowthorpe, Catton Grove, Crome, Eaton, Lakenham, Mancroft, Mile Cross, Nelson, Sewell, Thorpe Hamlet, Town Close, University, Wensum, Cringleford, New Costessey, Old Costessey,

Page 12: Norwich Economic Barometer - Norfolk Chamber of Commerce · Page 3 Norwich Economic Barometer Business news Economy The first estimate of UK GDP for 2016 Q4 showed quarterly growth

Page 12 Norwich Economic Barometer

Ward level claimant count unemployment

Table 2 JSA Claimant Count Unemployment

Bowthorpe

Catton Grove

Crome

Eaton

Lakenham

Mancroft

Mile Cross

Nelson

Sewell

Thorpe Hamlet

Town Close

University

Wensum

January 2016

December 2016

January2017

Monthly change

Annual change

1.7%

2.3%

1.9%

1.0%

2.1%

3.3%

3.0%

0.6%

1.3%

1.8%

1.2%

0.7%

2.3%

135

170

110

55

120

250

220

45

95

160

95

55

185

1.5%

2.1%

1.9%

0.6%

1.8%

3.3%

2.7%

0.7%

1.3%

1.9%

1.1%

0.8%

1.8%

125

155

110

30

105

250

195

50

95

165

90

65

140

1.5%

2.3%

2.0%

0.5%

1.9%

3.4%

2.7%

0.7%

1.4%

1.9%

1.0%

0.7%

1.8%

120

165

115

25

110

260

195

50

105

170

80

65

145

0

+ 0.2%

+ 0.1%

- 0.1%

+ 0.1%

+ 0.1%

0

0

+ 0.1%

0

- 0.1%

- 0.1%

0

- 0.2%

0

+ 0.1%

- 0.5%

- 0.2%

+ 1.0%

- 0.3%

+ 0.1%

+ 0.1%

+ 0.1%

- 0.2%

0

- 0.5%

Compared to this time last year, unemployment rates increased slightly in Crome, Mancroft, Nelson, Sewell and Thorpe Hamlet wards; rates fell in Bowthorpe, Eaton, Mile Cross, Town close and Wensum wards. All other wards saw rates

remain the same. Over the month, the unemployment rate in Catton Grove, Crome, Lakenham, Mancroft and Sewell wards increased slightly. Rates in Eaton, Town Close and University wards saw a slight fall; rates in the remaining wards were unchanged.

Figure 5 Norwich wards JSA unemployment 2014 to 2017

Figure 5 demonstrates that the wide variation in ward rates across the city council area is clearly evident. The differential between the lowest (Eaton) and the highest (Mancroft) rates currently stands at 2.9 percentage points.

Page 13: Norwich Economic Barometer - Norfolk Chamber of Commerce · Page 3 Norwich Economic Barometer Business news Economy The first estimate of UK GDP for 2016 Q4 showed quarterly growth

Page 13 Norwich Economic Barometer

Claimant count unemployment: age/duration

Gender: in the city council area, one in every three (32 per cent) out-of-work claimants is a woman. Over the month, female rates remained the same across the Norwich area (1.1 per cent) and the LEP area (1 per cent); the rate increased slightly across the region (1 per cent) and nationally (1.4 per cent).

The male unemployment rate is higher in Norwich (at 2.3 per cent of working age males) than in the LEP area (1.9 per cent), regionally (1.6 per cent) and nationally (2.4 per cent). Over the month, a marginal increase in the rate took place across each reported area.

Norwich’s male unemployment rate has remained higher than rates in the LEP area and at the regional and national levels since records began in 1992. However, the current male claimant count rate in Norwich is one of the lowest ever recorded and has now fallen below the national rate.

It is likely that Norwich’s relatively high levels of male unemployment can be attributed to the steady loss of manufacturing jobs and the dominance of the service sector in Norwich.

Duration: a certain amount of churn is expected within the labour market as people move between unemployment, welfare benefits and employment. Around 58.5 per cent of JSA1 unemployment claims in Norwich are for a period of less than six months; higher than the proportion seen across the LEP area (54.9 per cent) and nationally (54 per cent) but marginally lower than seen regionally (59.6 per cent).

The percentage of JSA claimants who are recorded as being unemployed for more than 12 months stands at 29.8 per cent in Norwich compared to 31.1 per cent in the LEP area, 25.7 per cent regionally and 30.8 per cent nationally. Relative to the previous month, the percentage of long-term unemployed has fallen slightly across each of the reported areas.

It is widely recognised that long periods of unemployment make it increasingly difficult for affected individuals to find work, particularly in a weak labour market.

However, over the year, the number of people recorded as long term unemployed in Norwich has fallen from 390 people in January 2016 to 330 currently.

Age: As a percentage of the 18-24 year old age group, the JSA unemployment rate stands at 0.6 per cent in Norwich and the LEP area; the regional rate is 0.7 per cent and national rate is 1 per cent.

1Claimant count data not yet available by duration.

Page 14: Norwich Economic Barometer - Norfolk Chamber of Commerce · Page 3 Norwich Economic Barometer Business news Economy The first estimate of UK GDP for 2016 Q4 showed quarterly growth

Page 14 Norwich Economic Barometer

Figure 6 JSA unemployment 2014 to 2017 for 18-24 year olds

Movement in the JSA unemployment rate over the period 2013 to 2016 is summarised in Figure 6.

Wensum, Mancroft, Bowthorpe, Nelson, Sewell and Crome wards have proportions of claimants aged 18-24 years above that of the Norwich average. Mancroft ward has the highest number of claimants aged between 18-24 years (20).

At the other end of the age scale, Norwich has a lower rate of unemployment claimants aged 50 years and over (2 per cent, 400 people) compared to the LEP area (1.2 per cent) and regionally (1.1 per cent) and nationally (1.6 per cent).

Against the previous month, the JSA rate of those aged 50 years or more grew marginally across each of the reported areas except at the regional level where it remained unchanged.

Page 15: Norwich Economic Barometer - Norfolk Chamber of Commerce · Page 3 Norwich Economic Barometer Business news Economy The first estimate of UK GDP for 2016 Q4 showed quarterly growth

Page 15 Norwich Economic Barometer

Housing benefit

Many housing benefit claimants are pensioners, people with disabilities, carers or people who are in low waged work. It should be noted that resident earnings in

Norwich are relatively low and this will be a contributing factor to the number of people claiming housing benefit.

Table 3 Norwich City Council housing benefit*** claimants

Number of claimants Monthly change

*** Housing benefit is an income related benefit designed to help people on low incomes pay for rented accommodation whether in, or out, of work.

Housing benefit numbers include people who are claiming council tax benefit only.

January 2016

February 2016

March 2016

April 2016

May 2016

June 2016

July 2016

August 2016

September 2016

October 2016

November 2016

December 2016

January 2017

17,811

17.679

17,254

17,103

17,278

17,287

17,213

17,228

17,138

17,022

16,954

16,948

16,884

- 103 (- 0.6%)

- 132 (- 0.7%)

- 425 (- 2.4%)

- 151 (- 0.9%)

+ 175 (+ 1.0%)

+ 9 (+ 0.05%)

- 74 (- 0.4%)

+ 15 (+ 0.08%)

- 90 (- 0.5%)

- 116 ( - 0.7%)

- 68 ( - 0.3%)

- 6 (- 0.03%)

- 64 (- 0.3%)

Table 3 shows that the number of housing benefit claimants in the Norwich local authority area fell by 64 claims during January. Over the year, housing benefit claims in Norwich have fallen by 5.2 per cent. Comparable national data is not available because of a time lag in data collection.

Page 16: Norwich Economic Barometer - Norfolk Chamber of Commerce · Page 3 Norwich Economic Barometer Business news Economy The first estimate of UK GDP for 2016 Q4 showed quarterly growth

Page 16 Norwich Economic Barometer

Young people (16-18 years) recorded as Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET)

The latest update received from Norfolk County Council is that Norwich’s NEET figure stands at 6.4 per cent compared to 3.7 per cent at the county level.

Figure 7 HM Land Registry average house prices 2014-16

Average House Prices

The House Price Index produced by HM Land Registry is the most accurate and independent house price index available for England. According to HM Land Registry’s House Price Index (Crown copyright) over the year, average house prices increased by 7.7 per cent in Norwich and across England. Figure 7 summarises average house price movements since January 2014.

During the month of December, average house prices fell by 0.8 per cent in Norwich but grew by 1.6 per cent in England compared to the previous month. The average house price in Norwich currently stands at £191,336 against £236,424 for England.

Page 17: Norwich Economic Barometer - Norfolk Chamber of Commerce · Page 3 Norwich Economic Barometer Business news Economy The first estimate of UK GDP for 2016 Q4 showed quarterly growth

Page 17 Norwich Economic Barometer

AppendixContact details: Sharon Quantrell, economic development, Norwich City Council. e: [email protected]

Data Sources:Figure 4: JSA claimant count – NOMIS, Crown copyrightFigure 5: Ward JSA unemployment – NOMIS, Crown copyrightFigure 6: JSA claimant count 18-24 year olds – NOMIS, Crown copyrightFigure 7: House Price Index, HM Land Registry, Crown copyright Tables 1 and 2: JSA claimant count – NOMIS, Crown copyrightTable 3: Housing benefit claimants – Norwich City Council

News stories from a variety of sources including EDP/Evening News; Business in East Anglia; Office of National Statistics; Reuters; BBC; Markit/CIPS PMI; Markit Monthly Economic Overview: University of East Anglia; Norwich University of the Arts, City College Norwich.