northern part central part southern part
TRANSCRIPT
Regional Workshop on:
“Methodologies to Assess Socio-economic Impacts of Natural Disaster”
CASE STUDY OF ECLAC's METHODOLOGY
ON ASSESSING SOCIO-ECONOMIC
IMPACT OF FLOOD IN VIETNAM
Bangkok, 19 – 21 October 2005
Contents: 1. Preliminary introduction on flood in Vietnam. 2. Assessment of sosio-economic impacts of natural disaster in Vietnam 3. Some results of case study of eclac methodology 4. Comments on new issue of case study 5. Some recommendations
1. Preliminary introduction on flood in Vietnam.
Vietnam territory is divided into 3 sub-regions under geographic position. Topography and weather of the region have special characteristics.
The situation of disasters in these regions have different features
Northern Northern partpart
Central Central partpart
Southern Southern partpart
Disaster with high appearance
- Inundation
- Typhoon
- Flood
- Cyclone
Disaster with medium appearance
- Hail
- Drought
- Landslide
Disaster with low appearance
- Earthquake
- Frost
River FloodingRiver Flooding
Flash floodsFlash floods
TyphoonsTyphoons
Natural Disasters in
Vietnam Natural Disasters in
Vietnam
Storm SurgesStorm Surges
Not on map:• Droughts• Salt water intrusion• Forest fire
FLASHFLOOD FLASHFLOOD HAZARD MAPHAZARD MAP
Typhoon Tracks
DecembeDecemberr
JuneJune
Northern region of Vietnam includes two parts: Mountainous sub-region and Red-Thai Binh river delta. RRD is plain area it has elevation varies from 0.4 meters to 9 meters.
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BiÓn,s«ng,hå
§ªs«ng
§ªbiÓn
th¸ib×nh
qu¶ngninh
h¶id¬ng
hµnéi
Along the Red and Thai Binh rivers are very complicated dyke's system that had been built in many decades before. The system is maintained every year. Management of the dyke system is one of the very important duties of our DDMFSC.
Hå S¬n LaMND=265, Wpl=5 tû
Hå Hoµ B×nhMND=115, Wpl=4,9 tû
Hå Th c BµMND =58, Wpl=0,45 tû
Hå B¾c MôcMND=75, Wpl=1,5 tû
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ng §
µ
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µo N
am §
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S«ng §¸y
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S«ng SÆt
S«ng §×nh §µo
S«ng Hång
S«ng §uèng
S«ng CÇu S«ng Th ¬ng
S«ng Thi B×nh
S«ng Diªm Hå
S«ng Ho
S«ng Luéc
S«ng Lôc Nam
S«ng Kinh ThÇyS«ng R¹ng
S«ng CÊm
S«ng L¹ch Tray
S«ng Kinh M«n
S«ng Hµn
S«ng V n óc
S«ng Tr
µ Lý
S«ng Th i B×nh
Thanh Hµ
CÈm Khª
3ViÖt Tr × - L©m Thao
§oan Hï ng
2
4
5
Tam Thanh
BÊt B¹ t1
17
15
6
LËp Th¹ ch
Qu¶ng Oai
Ch ¬ng Mü
Quèc Oai
18
16
VÜnh Phóc
7
Gia ViÔn
Nho Quan
21
20
Sãc S¬n8 11
Th¸i Nguyªn
ViÖt Yªn
10
B¾c H ng H¶i
Hµ Néi - Hµ §«ng
26
19
B¾c Ninh
9
25Ninh B×nh
24
22
Nam §Þnh
23
Nam Ninh-NghÜa H ng
12
Nh· Nam
Ba Tæng
13
30
Phñ L¹ ng Th ¬ng
28
Xu©n Thuû -H¶i HËu
Nam S ch
Thanh Hµ
32
B¾c Th¸ i B×nh
Nam Th¸i B×nh
27
ChÝ Linh
14
31
Lôc Nam - L¹ ng Giang
VÜnh B¶o
29
Kinh M«n
33
35
Thuû Nguyªn
An Kim H¶i
38
36
KiÕn An
Tiªn L· ng
37
34
+6.0
+15.0 Hmax=14.0m
H=10.0m +12.0+15.0
+6.0
MainDike SubDike SubDikeMainDike
+12.0
§ªchÝnh§ªbèi
§ªbèi§ªchÝnh
®ªt ¶s«nghång
®ªt ¶s«nghång
Design Design W.LW.L
River Dyke Cross Section SampleRiver Dyke Cross Section Sample
Sea Dyke Cross Section SampleSea Dyke Cross Section Sample
Back
Flooding and dike system situation in the Red River Delta in Aug.
2002
Flooding and dike system situation in the Red River Delta in Aug.
2002
2. Assessment of sosio-economic impacts of natural disaster in Vietnam
Basic parameters:
The parameters below are specific parameters to
measure the impact of flood to socio-economic:
- Number of died people
- Number of injured people
- Number of influenced people
- Number of broken houses
- Number of influenced houses
- Flooded area, rate of damage
- ...
The flood in 1996 in RRD caused damages
as follows:
- Number of died people: 100
- Number of injured people: 446
- Number of broken houses: 37,532
- Number of damaged house: 49,853
- Flooded rice area 277,636 ha
Non-harvested rice area 61,068 ha
Evaluating flood impact carried out from low grade to high grade
The sectors
The sectors of Social :
- Human
- Houses
- Education
- Health care
The sectors of economic:
- Agriculture
- Transportation
- Energy
In each sectors, some detail data are interested
in;
for example, in the sectors of agriculture,
data will be collected as:
- Flooded rice area (in which non-harvested area)
- Flooded upland crop area (in which non-harvested
area)
- Flooded industrial crop area (in which non-
harvested area)
- Volume of lost seed
- Died cattles
... 2001 2002
In this 2005 year fierce droughts and heats
lasted in provinces in the North, Central and
Highlands Vietnam, causing a serious lack of water
for daily living and productions.
After that storms and floods consecutively
occurred in July, August and September, killing
hundreds of people, affecting million of others,
damaging properties worth thousands of billion VND.
Fortunately, losses caused by those serious
disasters were minimized in terms of human life
and fishing vehicles, thanks to the close and
determined direction of central and provincial
authorities, and thank to initiative disaster
preparedness of population.
Storm N7 26 september 2005
Namdinh 28 september 2005
.
Namdinh 28 september 2005
Namdinh 28 september 2005
Một ngôi nhà sau lũ quét.
Yenbai 29 september 2005
Yenbai 29 september 2005
s. 70
3. Some results of case study of eclac methodology
Range of case stydy of ECLAC's methodology.
The chosen area for case study is Ha Dong area,
that belongs to Thanh Ha district, Hai Duong
province. Dyke of the area was broken in
flooded season 1996 and the process of flood
can be simulated in detail by linkage of one
and two dimensions hydraulic and dykebreak
model.
Impacting on agriculture includes direct
and indirect impacts. Direct impact is
assessed for cultivation, livestock and
aquaculture.
In direct impact is assessed for litchi crop.
Impact to import &
export
Sectors
Total
damage
Direct
damage
Indirect
damage Increase
import
Decrease
export
Total 26.431,2 13.615,1 12.816,1
Cultivation
- Properties
- Season
+ Consumption
Paddy rice
Maize
Sweet potato
....
+ Using for export
and industry
Litchi & longan
....
25.673,8 12.857,7
8.672,7
201,2
50,8
...
1.476,2
...
12.816,1
5.435,2
7.380,9
8.627,7
1.476,2
Livestock
+ Animal
+ Poultry
161,2
22,2
139,0
Aquaculture 596,2
Damage value is the cost for investing to have 1
hectare of litchi (300 trees), that includes:
Cost for moving earth 26.3 Mill. VND
Seedling cost 1.5 “
Planting cost 1.2 “
Fertilizer cost 0.3 “
Total 29.3 “
And the loss without harvest of litchi area in 5 years after the inundation
Overall impact of dyke break
Categories Damage value Rate (%)
Agriculture 26.431,2 18.36
Trade 3.920,6 2.72
Housing 111.604,3 77.54
Rural roads 1.976,3 1.37
Total 143.932,4 100.00
House damage has very high rate, in which,
thatched cottage had been damaged heavily.
The owner of the house type is poor people,
they need to be helped when flood happened.
Damage value of rural roads is not very high,
but this is public assets, so it needs to have
measurement to overcome for serving
development of other sectors.
4. Comments on new issue of case study
Indirect damages and measuring them
In the damage statistic table of the years 2001, 2002 in
particular and in assessment of disaster damage in general,
indirect damage has not been interested.
The reason of that could be the rate of indirect damages
for socio-economic in the past was relatively small in
comparison with direct damages. For instant, damage of rice
area by flood is direct damage, indirect damage of the crop
was not appeared.
2002
In present and future, under the policy of changing
economic structure, the part of rice area will be changed to
cultivate other crops or change to animal husbandry,
aquaculture that have more economic effect than rice
cultivation.
In term of case study for longan, litchi, indirect damage
value is higher than direct damage. The same result could be
received for other goods as clean vegetable, fish pond for
aquaculture.
Detail damage assessment of sub-sectors
To assess disaster damage, each sector should be
divided into some sub-sectors. It needs to collect
and process more information and refer opinion
of many experts.
For the sector has high damage rate, such as houses,
dividing the sector into sub-sectors and degree of
accuracy of information in each sub-sector will effect
to much to calculating results of damage. For example,
only changing information in the following table,
we will get the different results.
No House type Area
(m2)
Value
(Mil. VND)
Damage
rate (%)
1 Villa 200 560 10
2 House with concrete frame 150 263 15
3 House with concrete roof 120 134 15
4 House with tiled roof 100 42 20
5 Thatched cottage 7 60
Determining priorities in process of consequence overcome
Results of the case study presented that, detailed
assessment of flood damage allow us to carefully analyze
impacted sectors.
- Damage of rice production will cause bad impacts of socio-
economic,
- Damage on infrastructure increases and occupies big rate in
total damage. The damage of house occupies high rate of
infrastructure damage, in which. the type of thatched cottage
(owned by poor people) was damaged mostly serious.
- Infrastructure system of RRD have been built in many
years with very big investment (includes government
investment and private investment), so to overcome the
flood consequence, it needs very big contribution of people
in flooded area and outside aid.
5. Some recommendations
Indirect assessment of damage:
Because economic structure of Vietnam is changing
to increase of industry and service, so indirect
damage by flood, in particular, and by disaster, in
general, in some sectors will not be small.
Hence, along with assessing direct damage,
it need to apply ECLAC's methodology to assess
indirect damage in some important sectors such
as aquaculture, small & medium service and industry.
Assessing entire impact of disaster:
Although agricultural area of RRD ocupies large
rate, but rate of agricultural GDP is not high and
has decresing trend.
The damage rate of industry and service will be
very high. Hence, the application of ECLAC's
methodology for assessing damage is very necessary.
Applying ECLAC's methodology to compare
socio-economic damage in the case with diverting
floods and without diverting floods if big flood
happen.
t r µnh¸ t m«n
cèngv©ncèc
Day dam engineeringDay dam engineering
The results of entire damage assessment
with and without diverging freshets will contribute
important argument's basics, that assists relative
office to propose opinions to the Government,
that will decide diverting floods
Applying ECLAC's methodology to assess
Macro-economic impacts of natural disaster in
Vietnam. It is an important and difficul problem.
Ind_04s. 36
Thankyouforyourattentions