nordic family policy and demographic consequences presentation at 11 th lpr network seminar, tallinn...
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Nordic Family Policy and Demographic Consequences
Presentation at 11th LPR Network seminar,
Tallinn 18-19th of September 2014
Ann-Zofie Duvander
What are the outcomes of family policy in Nordic countries?
• High female labour force participation and/or gender segregated labour market?
• High male participation in childcare and gender equality?
• High fertility and/or late childbearing?
• High family dissolution?
• High reconstitution of family and/or lone parenting?
• Low poverty among children?
Social Policy and Family Dynamics in Europe (SPaDE)
www.su.se/SPADE/
Demography unit
Department of Sociology, Stockholm University
Nordic Family Policy and demographic Consequences (NORDiC)
Trude Lappegard, Statistics Norway (PI)(217915/F10) Research Council of Norway (217915Aim: ”Whether and how Nordic family policy influences demographic behaviour and life-course earnings”
Nordic Family Policy and Union Dissolution
Trude Lappegard, Statistics NorwayAnn-Zofie Duvander, Stockholm UniversitySynøve N. Andersen, Statistics NorwayÓlöf Garðarsdóttir, University of Iceland Gerda Neyer, Stockholm University Ida Viklund, Stockholm University
(presented at PAA 2014 in Boston, EPC 2014 in Budapest)
Research question
Is fathers’ parental leave use associated with union dissolution?
Does the association change over time?
Are there differences between Nordic countries ?
Focus
• Three Nordic countries– Iceland, Norway and Sweden – Gender equality is an explicit policy goal – A long tradition of promoting gender equality through
family policy
• The parental leave program– Facilitates the combination of childrearing and
female employment – Encourages men’s participation in the domestic
sphere and thus carries the potential to change gender relations within families
Expected effects and mechanisms
• Father’s investment in the relationship and the family
• Achieve more equality in total time spent in paid and unpaid work
• Facilitate mother’s situation
• Competing roles of father and mother at home?
• Difficult to be forerunner?
9
9
Parental Leave Programs in the Nordic countries
Iceland Norway Sweden
One year
68 67 66 65 64 63 62 61 60 59 58 57 56 55 54 53 52 51 50 49 48 47 46 45 44 43 42 41 40 39 38 37 36 35 34 33 32 31
FATHER’S QUOTA
30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19
LEAVE TO SHARE
18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8
MOTHER’S QUOTA
7 6 5 4 3 2 MANDATORY MATERNITY LEAVE 1
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
68
67
66
65
64
63
62
61
60
59
58
57
56
55
54
53
52
51
FATHER’S QUOTA
50
49
48
47
46
45
44
43
42
41
40
39
38
37
LEAVE TO SHARE
36
35
34
33
32
31
30
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
MOTHER’S QUOTA
7
6
5
4
3
2 PRE-BIRTH LEAVE
1
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
68
67
66
65
64
63
62
LEAVE TO SHARE – FLAT LOW RATE 61
60
59
58
57
56
55
54
53
52
51
FATHER’S QUOTA
50
49
48
47
46
45
44
43
42
41
40
39
38
37
LEAVE TO SHARE
36
35
34
33
32
31
30
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
MOTHER’S QUOTA
2
1
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Data
• Administrative register data, Iceland, Norway and Sweden
• Time period 1993 to 2011 (2012 for Sweden)
• Sample– Couples having their first common child – Exclude:
• Couples where the child dies • Either parent dies or emigrates • Children born abroad• Multiple births
Methods
• Discrete time hazard model
• Start to measure dissolution risk when child is 18-24 months
• Take into consideration that only dissolution date by year, including many sensitivity tests
• Follow couples for max 12 years
• Main explanatory variable: The father’s parental leave use
Parental leave use variable
“Regulation variable” – No leave; – Up to quota; – More than quota
13
Iceland
0
20
40
60
80
100
2001 2006
No leave Up to quota More than quota
Norway
0
20
40
60
80
100
1994 1999 2004
No leave Up to quota More than quota
Sweden
0
20
40
60
80
100
1995 2000 2005
No leave Up to quota More than quota
Results (still preliminary!)
1. Risk of union separation for couples with at least one child
2. Risk of union separation during different periods.
15
Risk of union separation for couples with
at least one child. Iceland, Norway and
Sweden. Odds ratios.
Iceland Norway Sweden
Father’s leave
No use 1 1 1
Up to quota 0,84 0,73*** 0,87***
More than quota 0,72** 0,83*** 0,93***
Number of obs 25 764 931 694 1 477 566
Controlled for mother’s /father’s age, education, immigrant background, union status, number of children
Risk of union separation for couples with at least
one child. Sweden and Norway. Computed odds
ratios, father’s use of parental leave and period.
1995-1997 1998-2001 2002-2005 2006-2009
Father’s use of parental leave
No use 1 1 1 1
Up to quota 0,87 0,91 0,87 0,83
More than quota 0,95 0,97 0,94 0,83
Controlled for: mother’s/father’s age, education and immigrant background; union status; number of children
1994-1996 1997-2001 2002-2004 2005-2007
Father’s use of parental leave
No use 1 1 1 1
Up to quota 0,61 0,71 0,78 0,86
More than quota 0,75 0,80 0,84 0,86
Controlled for: mother’s/father’s age, education and immigrant background; union status; number of children
Discussion• Fathers’ use of parental leave is positively associated with
union stability in the Nordic countries– The relationship is not uniform – Cannot conclude that more leave reduces union separation
– Indicates a complex relationship between gender roles and dissolution risk that needs more analyses!
Iceland Norway Sweden
Basic model
Full model
Basic model
Full model
Basic model
Full model
Father’s use of parental leave
No use 1 1 1 1 1 1
Up to quota 0.62*** 0.84 0.68*** 0.73*** 0.73*** 0.87***
More than quota 0.55*** 0.72** 0.73*** 0.83*** 0.66*** 0.93***
Log likelihood -2749.3686 -2720.97 -161663.07 -153380.7 -214007.52 -2022210.1
Number of observations 25,764 25,764 931,694 931,694 1,477,566 1,477,566
Controlled for: mother’s/father’s age, education and immigrant background; union status; number of children
***0.001 **0.05 **0.1
Risk of union separation for couples with
at least one child. Iceland, Norway and
Sweden. Odds ratios.
19
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0 2 4 6 8 10analysis time
No leave Up to quota
More than quota
Kaplan-Meier survival estimates - Sweden
Kaplan-Meier
survival estimates
of union
separation by use
of parental leave.
Iceland, Norway
and Sweden