nm west las vegas municipal school dist. 1,...west las vegas school district 1, nm's (a3)...

U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE

CREDIT OPINION7 June 2019

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West Las Vegas Municipal School Dist. 1,NMUpdate to credit analysis

SummaryWest Las Vegas School District 1, NM's (A3) credit profile is generally stable. Over the pastseveral years, financial performance is somewhat inconsistent, but most recently, in fiscal2017 and fiscal 2018, the district managed to report surpluses despite enrollment lossand mid-year cuts to state aid. Fiscal 2019 is expected to close with another addition tofund balance. Headcount continues to decline, which has potential to pressure operations;however, management is investing in new technology with the hopes of attracting newstudents and retaining current students. The tax base is modestly-sized, but stable, andcontinues to expand due to positive reappraisals. The direct debt burden is manageable, andwill remain as such given rapid principal payout. We note that resident income indices areweak, and poverty levels are high. As a participant in ERB, a statewide, cost-sharing plan, thedistrict's pension burden is elevated, and annual contributions remain unfavorably below thetread water level.

Credit strengths

» Stable tax base

Credit challenges

» Historic trend of enrollment declines

» Very weak wealth indices

» Elevated pension and fixed cost burdens

Rating outlookMoody's generally does not assign outlooks to local government credits with this amount ofdebt outstanding.

Factors that could lead to an upgrade

» Significant increases to the district’s fund balance and reserves

» Tax base expansion, economic diversification and improvement of wealth indices

» Material reductions to the pension and fixed cost burdens

http://www.surveygizmo.com/s3/1133212/Rate-this-research?pubid=PBM_1177413

https://www.moodys.com/credit-ratings/West-Las-Vegas-Municipal-School-Dist-1-NM-credit-rating-800042107

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE

Factors that could lead to a downgrade

» Deterioration of fund balance and reserves

» Material tax base contraction

» Increases to the pension and fixed cost burdens that are not in line with peers

Key indicators

Exhibit 1

West Las Vegas Municipal School Dist. 1, NM 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Economy/Tax Base

Total Full Value ($000) $521,246 $527,021 $558,410 $562,519 $569,452

Population 9,723 9,626 9,533 9,774 9,774

Full Value Per Capita $53,610 $54,750 $58,577 $57,553 $58,262

Median Family Income (% of US Median) 56.0% 45.9% 45.9% 40.8% 40.8%

Finances

Operating Revenue ($000) $15,843 $16,642 $15,817 $15,571 $15,714

Fund Balance ($000) $1,849 $2,956 $1,529 $2,742 $3,969

Cash Balance ($000) $2,010 $2,197 $1,988 $1,680 $3,512

Fund Balance as a % of Revenues 11.7% 17.8% 9.7% 17.6% 25.3%

Cash Balance as a % of Revenues 12.7% 13.2% 12.6% 10.8% 22.3%

Debt/Pensions

Net Direct Debt ($000) $8,200 $7,830 $7,260 $7,310 $8,435

3-Year Average of Moody's ANPL ($000) $55,600 $51,499 $50,586 $54,658 $58,132

Net Direct Debt / Full Value (%) 1.6% 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% 1.5%

Net Direct Debt / Operating Revenues (x) 0.5x 0.5x 0.5x 0.5x 0.5x

Moody's - adjusted Net Pension Liability (3-yr average) to Full Value (%) 10.7% 9.8% 9.1% 9.7% 10.2%

Moody's - adjusted Net Pension Liability (3-yr average) to Revenues (x) 3.5x 3.1x 3.2x 3.5x 3.7x

Source: District's audits; Moody's; US Census (MFI)

ProfileLocated approximately 120 miles northwest of Albuquerque (GO Aa2 negative), West Las Vegas School District serves the City of LasVegas (ILT A2) and surrounding areas within San Miguel County. The district manages 11 schools and provides K-12 education servicesto approximately 1,400 students.

Detailed credit considerationsEconomy and tax base: rural economy northwest of AlbuquerqueThe tax base will remain stable over the medium-term driven by positive reappraisals of existing property. Located 70 miles east of theCity of Santa Fe, the district serves the City of Las Vegas and unincorporated potions of San Miguel County. Assessed value (AV) hasbeen very stable with just one decline in the past ten years (3.7% decline in fiscal 2014). Fiscal 2019 AV is $196.9 million, derived froma full value of $591 million. The top five taxpayers account for a moderate 10.3% of fiscal 2019 AV and are reportedly stable.

Historic enrollment trends are negative, but fiscal 2019 shows some signs of stabilization. Fiscal 2019 headcount is 1,431, a modestincrease from prior year's 1,415. The district is focused on recruiting and retaining new students by offering updated technology,including new chromebooks, and faster internet services. Officials expect enrollment to remain at 1,400 students over the medium-term.

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page onwww.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

2 7 June 2019 West Las Vegas Municipal School Dist. 1, NM: Update to credit analysis

https://www.moodys.com/credit-ratings/Albuquerque-City-of-NM-credit-rating-21015

https://www.moodys.com/credit-ratings/Las-Vegas-City-of-NM-credit-rating-600027498

https://www.moodys.com/credit-ratings/Las-Vegas-City-of-NM-credit-rating-600027498


The district's income levels are below average, according to the 2017 American Community Survey estimate. Median family income is40.8% of US, and the poverty rate is high at 40.5%. San Miguel County’s unemployment rate is 5.3% (May 2019), which is higher thanboth the state (4.6%) and nation (3.9%).

Financial operations and reserves: financial position shows improvementDespite enrollment declines, which negatively impact state aid, the district has managed to report surpluses, and this trend is expectedto continue into fiscal 2019. Fiscal 2018 ended with a $776,000 surplus, increasing General Fund balance to an improved $2 million, or14.7% of revenues. Management was able to carve $586,000 from the expenditure budget, the main driver in the addition to reserves.Operating fund balance, including the General Fund and Debt Service Fund, is $4 million, or 25.3% of operating revenues.

Fiscal 2019 is expected to end with at least $2 million in fund balance. Similar to prior year, staffing levels were maintained, anddepartments underspent.

The fiscal 2020 budget is flat, and does not assume use of reserves for any purpose. State aid increased by close to 20% year over year,thus, assuming the district manages expenditures, fiscal 2020 should end in another addition to fund balance.

LIQUIDITYGeneral Fund cash tracks fairly closely to fund balance. Fiscal 2018 ending cash was $1.6 million, or 11.6% of revenues. General Fundbalance is higher as it incorporates a $455,000 receivable associated with state and federal grants. In practice, many New Mexicodistricts float grant funds with operating dollars, being reimbursed in July at the start of the next fiscal year.

Operating fund cash is $3.5 million, or 22.3% of operating revenues. Included in fund balance is annual debt service, which is due inAugust.

Debt and pensions: manageable direct debt burden, but elevated pension burdenDespite plans to issue in the mid-term, the district’s debt burden will likely remain manageable given steady tax base expansioncoupled with rapid principal amortization. At 1.6% of fiscal 2019 full value, the district's debt burden is slightly above state and nationalmedians. Positively, principal payout is rapid, with 96.4% retired in ten years. Management plans to seek authorization for GO bonds in2021. Debt service is front-loaded, allowing for the layering in of additional bonds without adjustments to tax rates.

DEBT STRUCTUREThe district has $9.4 million in outstanding, fixed-rate obligations.

DEBT-RELATED DERIVATIVESThe district is not party to any derivative agreements.

PENSIONS AND OPEBThe district has a high employee pension burden, based on unfunded liabilities for its share of the Educational Employees RetirementSystem (EERS), a cost sharing plan administered by the state and managed by the Educational Retirement Board (ERB). West Las Vegas'annual contributions into the plan have been at the statutorily required amount, which is well below the actuarially required amount, asituation which has driven the large unfunded liability. Moody's fiscal 2018 adjusted net pension liability (ANPL) for the district, underour methodology for adjusting reported pension data, is $59.5 million, or an elevated 3.78x operating revenues.

In addition to high ANPL to revenue ratio, the district's tread water gap has widened over the last several years to 4.5% in fiscal 2018.The “tread water” indicator measures the annual contributions required to prevent the reported net pension liability from increasing.That is, it is the amount that the district would have to pay on an annual basis to ensure the unfunded liability does not increase. Infiscal 2018, pension contributions of $1.3 million were below the tread water indicator of $2 million, a credit negative. Currently, thedistrict is able to pay the statutorily-required contribution without impairing operations.

Starting in fiscal 2020, legislative changes to ERB will go into effect, including an increase to employer contributions. Positively, thestate has appropriated additional funds, thus, districts will be insulated from the cost hike.



Management and governance: institutional framework score of BaaThe district is governed by a five-member board of trustees who serve four-year terms. The board performs policy-making andsupervisory functions and delegates administrative responsibilities to the superintendent of schools, who is the chief administrativeofficer of the district.

New Mexico School Districts have an Institutional Framework score of Baa, which is low. Institutional Framework scores measure asector's legal ability to increase revenues and decrease expenditures. The sector's major revenue source, state aid or SEG, is subjectto a cap, which cannot be overridden (in that, the State determines annual appropriations based primarily on student enrollment).Reliance on state funding limits revenue-raising ability; school districts do not collect property taxes for operation. Unpredictablerevenue fluctuations tend to be moderate, or between 5-10% annually. Across the sector, fixed and mandated costs are generally lessthan 25% of expenditures. However, New Mexico School Districts enter into annual teaching contracts, which can limit the ability tocut expenditures over the near-term. Unpredictable expenditure fluctuations tend to be moderate, between 5-10% annually.

Rating methodology and scorecard factorsThe US Local Government General Obligation Rating Methodology includes a scorecard, a tool providing a composite score of a localgovernment’s credit profile based on the weighted factors we consider most important, universal and measurable, as well as possiblenotching factors dependent on individual credit strengths and weaknesses. Its purpose is not to determine the final rating, but rather toprovide a standard platform from which to analyze and compare local government credits.



Exhibit 2

West Las Vegas MSD, NM

Rating Factors Measure Score

Economy/Tax Base (30%) [1]

Tax Base Size: Full Value (in 000s) $591,216 A

Full Value Per Capita $60,489 A

Median Family Income (% of US Median) 40.8% Ba

Notching Factors:[2]

Institutional Presence

Regional Economic Center

Economic Concentration

Outsized Unemployment or Poverty Levels Down

Other Analyst Adjustment to Economy/Taxbase Factor: Down

Standardized Adjustments [3]

: N/A

Finances (30%)

Fund Balance as a % of Revenues 25.3% Aaa

5-Year Dollar Change in Fund Balance as % of Revenues 14.5% Aa

Cash Balance as a % of Revenues 22.3% Aaa

5-Year Dollar Change in Cash Balance as % of Revenues 9.7% A


Outsized Enterprise or Contingent Liabliity Risk

Unusually volatile revenue structure

Other Analyst Adjustment to Finances Factor:

Management (20%)

Institutional Framework Baa Baa

Operating History: 5-Year Average of Operating Revenues / Operating Expenditures (x) 1.0x Aa


State Oversight or Support

Unusually Strong or Weak Budgetary Management and Planning

Other Analyst Adjustment to Management Factor (specify):


: N/A

Debt and Pensions (20%)

Net Direct Debt / Full Value (%) 1.6% Aa

Net Direct Debt / Operating Revenues (x) 0.6x Aa

3-Year Average of Moody's Adjusted Net Pension Liability / Full Value (%) 9.8% Baa

3-Year Average of Moody's Adjusted Net Pension Liability / Operating Revenues (x) 3.7x Baa


Unusually Strong or Weak Security Features

Unusual Risk Posed by Debt Structure

History of Missed Debt Service Payments

Other Analyst Adjustment to Debt and Pensions Factor (specify): Down


: N/A

Other

Credit Event/Trend Not Yet Reflected in Existing Data Sets:

Scorecard-Indicated Outcome A3

Assigned Rating A3

(1) Economy measures are based on data from the most recent year available.(2) Notching Factors are specifically defined in the US Local Government General Obligation Debt methodology dated December 16, 2016.(3) Standardized adjustments are outlined in the GO Methodology Scorecard Inputs Updated for the 2018 publication.Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, State CAFRs, Moody's



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nm west las vegas municipal school dist. 1,...west las vegas school district 1, nm's (a3)...

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