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NIIT Technologies Ltd. BUY - 1 of 21 - Wednesday 23 rd September, 2015 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. STOCK POINTER Target Price `644 CMP `448 FY17E P/E 9.7x Index Details NIIT Tech has undertaken several initiatives which, in our opinion, are expected to put it on the growth trajectory again. The acquisition of Incessant Technologies” besides providing traction to revenues and profitability will help it bolster the fast growing digital services business and make inroads into new accounts. The significant reinforcement and changes in front end leadership functions and a new sales incentive policy are aimed at rewarding improved performances and we believe, lead to a resurgent work force. We initiate with a BUY coverage on NIIT Tech Ltd with a Price Objective of `644 (potential upside of ~44% over a period of 18 months), implying a P/E multiple of 14x on its FY17E EPS. At the CMP of `448, the stock is trading at 9.7x its EPS for FY17E. Our optimism stems from the fact that: NIIT Tech is looking forward to expanding its presence in the international markets (revenue share estimated to increase from 87% in FY15 to 91% in FY17) by acquiring 17 new logos in various verticals to bolster revenue growth and improve its margins. International revenues are expected to grow at a CAGR of 14% to ` 2,734 crores leading to an overall revenue growth of 12% CAGR to ` 2,996 crores by FY17 driven by: Boost to the Travel and Transportation business which is estimated to grow at a 12% CAGR to `1,195 crores. Accentuation of revenues from the BFSI vertical to `1,058 crores (2 year CAGR of 17%). Expansion of business from IMS service line to `578 crores growing at a CAGR of 28%. The conscious de-focus from government business in India should lead to a sharp improvement in operating margins by 380 bps to 18% while DSO days are also set to improve to 80 days from the current 93 days. Sensex 25,823 Nifty 7,846 BSE 500 10,315 Industry IT Consulting Scrip Details Mkt Cap (` cr) 2,6744 BVPS (`) 222 O/s Shares (Cr) 6.1 Av Vol (Lacs) 0.3 52 Week H/L 539/332 Div Yield (%) 1.8 FVPS (`) 10 Shareholding Pattern Shareholders % Promoters 30.9 DIIs 24.0 FIIs 28.1 Public 17.0 Total 100.0 NIIT Tech vs. Sensex 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 16-Sep-14 16-Oct-14 16-Nov-14 16-Dec-14 16-Jan-15 16-Feb-15 16-Mar-15 16-Apr-15 16-May-15 16-Jun-15 16-Jul-15 16-Aug-15 16-Sep-15 NIIT Tech Sensex Key Financials (` Cr.) Y/E Mar Net Sales EBITDA PAT EPS (`) EPS Growth (%) RONW (%) ROCE (%) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) 2014 2305 354 231 38.0 8.5 19.1 31.7 11.8 7.1 2015E 2372 336 114 18.7 -50.8 8.5 26.2 24.0 7.4 2016E 2659 439 203 33.3 78.1 14.3 31.9 13.5 5.8 2017E 2996 540 281 46.0 38.3 17.7 34.9 9.7 4.2

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Page 1: NIIT Technologies Ltd. - Powerchats.moneycontrol.com/plus/upload_pdf_file/NIITTech_PYT.pdfNIIT Technologies Ltd. BUY - 1 of 21 - Wednesday 23rd September, 2015

NIIT Technologies Ltd.

BUY

- 1 of 21 - Wednesday 23rd

September, 2015

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

ST

OC

K P

OIN

TE

R

Target Price `644 CMP `448 FY17E P/E 9.7x

Index Details NIIT Tech has undertaken several initiatives which, in our opinion, are expected to put it on the growth trajectory again. The acquisition of “Incessant Technologies” besides providing traction to revenues and profitability will help it bolster the fast growing digital services business and make inroads into new accounts. The significant reinforcement and changes in front end leadership functions and a new sales incentive policy are aimed at rewarding improved performances and we believe, lead to a resurgent work force. We initiate with a BUY coverage on NIIT Tech Ltd with a Price Objective of `644 (potential upside of ~44% over a period of 18 months), implying a P/E multiple of 14x on its FY17E EPS. At the CMP of `448, the stock is trading at 9.7x its EPS for FY17E. Our optimism stems from the fact that:

NIIT Tech is looking forward to expanding its presence in the international markets (revenue share estimated to increase from 87% in FY15 to 91% in FY17) by acquiring 17 new logos in various verticals to bolster revenue growth and improve its margins. International revenues are expected to grow at a CAGR of 14% to ` 2,734 crores leading to an overall revenue

growth of 12% CAGR to ` 2,996 crores by FY17 driven by:

Boost to the Travel and Transportation business which is estimated to grow at a 12% CAGR to `1,195 crores.

Accentuation of revenues from the BFSI vertical to `1,058 crores (2 year CAGR of 17%).

Expansion of business from IMS service line to `578 crores growing at a CAGR of 28%.

The conscious de-focus from government business in India should lead to a sharp improvement in operating margins by 380 bps to 18% while DSO days are also set to improve to 80 days from the current 93 days.

Sensex 25,823

Nifty 7,846

BSE 500 10,315

Industry IT

Consulting

Scrip Details

Mkt Cap (` cr) 2,6744 BVPS (`) 222

O/s Shares (Cr) 6.1

Av Vol (Lacs) 0.3

52 Week H/L 539/332

Div Yield (%) 1.8

FVPS (`) 10

Shareholding Pattern

Shareholders %

Promoters 30.9

DIIs 24.0

FIIs 28.1

Public 17.0

Total 100.0

NIIT Tech vs. Sensex

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

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-15

NIIT Tech Sensex

Key Financials (` Cr.)

Y/E Mar Net

Sales EBITDA PAT

EPS (`)

EPS Growth (%)

RONW (%)

ROCE (%)

P/E (x)

EV/EBITDA (x)

2014 2305 354 231 38.0 8.5 19.1 31.7 11.8 7.1

2015E 2372 336 114 18.7 -50.8 8.5 26.2 24.0 7.4

2016E 2659 439 203 33.3 78.1 14.3 31.9 13.5 5.8

2017E 2996 540 281 46.0 38.3 17.7 34.9 9.7 4.2

Page 2: NIIT Technologies Ltd. - Powerchats.moneycontrol.com/plus/upload_pdf_file/NIITTech_PYT.pdfNIIT Technologies Ltd. BUY - 1 of 21 - Wednesday 23rd September, 2015

- 2 of 21- Wednesday 23rd

September, 2015

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

McKinsey expects global spending on digital services to grow from the current 9% to 36% by FY18. Given NIIT Techs thrust on this segment and the acquisition of Incessant (51% stake) augurs well for the company. Besides plugging a vital gap in its service offering the Incessant acquisition is expected to improve new client adds and revenue potential through cross selling. Incessant Technologies revenues (~ $17 Mn in FY15) are estimated to grow at a robust 20% CAGR over FY15-17. Also, it operates at significantly high margins of ~25%.

The company has undertaken a list of new operating initiatives such as:

Identifying ‘Must have Accounts’ and growing top accounts Reinforcement and changes in key leadership positions Introduction of new sales incentive policy

These measures are expected improve its efficiencies and reduce its employee cost / sales by 140bps to 55.1%.

Page 3: NIIT Technologies Ltd. - Powerchats.moneycontrol.com/plus/upload_pdf_file/NIITTech_PYT.pdfNIIT Technologies Ltd. BUY - 1 of 21 - Wednesday 23rd September, 2015

- 3 of 21- Wednesday 23rd

September, 2015

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Company Background

NIIT Technologies was established as a software services arm of NIIT in 1981. It demerged in 2004 and there onwards, NIIT Tech has expanded in various geographies through various verticals and provides a number of IT Based Services. Its Revenue Breakup is charted below:

Revenue Breakup FY15

Source: Ventura Research

Revenues

`2,372 Crores

America

44%

EMEA

36%

India

13%

Others

7%

ADM

61% SI & PI

7%

BPO

6%

IMS

17%

IP Based

9%

Others

15%

Govt

5%

Transportation

40%

Mfg

7%

BFSI

33%

Service Line Wise

Vertical Wise

Geography Wise

Margins wise Classification

Service Lise Wise Vertical Wise Geography wise

IP Based Transportation USA

IMS BFSI Europe

ADM Manufacturing MEA

SI & PI Others Others

BPO Govt India Source: NIIT Tech, Ventura Research

High Margins Low Margins

Page 4: NIIT Technologies Ltd. - Powerchats.moneycontrol.com/plus/upload_pdf_file/NIITTech_PYT.pdfNIIT Technologies Ltd. BUY - 1 of 21 - Wednesday 23rd September, 2015

- 4 of 21- Wednesday 23rd

September, 2015

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Key Investment Highlights

Focus on international operations and scaling down of India government

business to boost revenues and profitability

Revenues of NIIT Tech have grown at a CAGR of 23% from FY11-FY14 led by

growth across all its verticals in various geographies. However, FY15 saw a

paltry growth of 4% due to de-growth in its US BFSI segment led by a slowdown

in two of its clients.

At the end of FY2011, developed markets (US and Europe) accounted for 63%

of the overall revenue (the US and Europe markets had an almost equal share).

However, with the US geography offering better margins, gradually the revenue

mix tilted in favour of the US business with its revenue share increasing from

31% in FY11 to 44% in FY15. Further, reduction of the domestic business has

led to the share of the international business growing from 76% in FY11 to 87%

in FY15.

Revenues to grow at a 2 year CAGR of 12%

0.00

500.00

1000.00

1500.00

2000.00

2500.00

3000.00

3500.00

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E

` Crores

Source: NIIT Tech, Ventura Research

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- 5 of 21- Wednesday 23rd

September, 2015

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Post 2008, to de-risk itself from the global melt down NIIT Tech had increased

its exposure to domestic business (primarily government sector). In FY11,

revenues from Indian operations accounted for 24% of the revenue pie, with ~

1/3rd of it coming from the government business. However, marred by delays in

project completion, high DSOs and low margin Purchase for Resale segment

(~2/3rds of Government business) stretched the balance sheet and marred

profitability.

NIIT Tech as part of its strategy consciously focused on de growing the India

business and focusing more on the international opportunity. Going forward, we

expect overall revenues to grow at a 2 year CAGR of 12% to `2,996 crores led

by expansion in international markets and strategic de-growth in its domestic

operations. By FY17, the share of overall revenues from the international

markets is expected to rise by 400 bps to 91% driven by:

International business expected to grow at a 2 year CAGR of 15% and account for 91% of FY17 revenues

3137 38 42 44 47 48

32

38 3937 35

36 36

24

1213

14 13 11 9

13 13 10 7 8 8 7

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E

America EMEA India Others

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E

` Crores

Source: NIIT Tech, Ventura Research

Post scaling down of India operations DSO days and margins set to improve

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E

DSO

10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0

14.0

15.0

16.0

17.0

18.0

19.0

20.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E

EBITDA %

Margins have bottomed out in 2015.

Source: NIIT Tech, Ventura Research

Page 6: NIIT Technologies Ltd. - Powerchats.moneycontrol.com/plus/upload_pdf_file/NIITTech_PYT.pdfNIIT Technologies Ltd. BUY - 1 of 21 - Wednesday 23rd September, 2015

- 6 of 21- Wednesday 23rd

September, 2015

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Boost to the Travel and Transportation vertical

Accentuation of revenues from BFSI

Expansion of business in its IMS service line

Conscious de-growth in government business

Boost to the Travel and Transportation Vertical: NIIT Tech strengthened its position in the Travel & Transportation (T&T)

segment with the acquisition of Softech GMBH in FY09. Later it consolidated its

position by another successful acquisition of Proyecta, Spain in FY12.

Revenues from T&T vertical grew at a robust 43% CAGR from FY11-FY13 to

`809 crore backed by large marquee client wins in the international markets. In

FY14 however the segment experienced slow growth on account of a weak

environment in Europe and slowdown of a large account in the US.

Travel and Transportation (T&T) segment currently forms the highest share of

revenues at 40% and among Indian peers it is the second leading player. Going

ahead, we expect revenues from T&T to grow at a 2 year CAGR of 12% to

`1,195 crores by FY17 on the back of:

10 new client wins in FY15 (with another in the process of finalizing by

Q2FY16).

Further almost half of revenues from this vertical come from international

airlines. Some consolidations of other airlines with the clients of NIIT

Tech like International Airlines Group could present NIIT Tech an

opportunity to add more business in this space..

T&T Revenues estimated to grow at a 2 yr CAGR of 12% to `1,195 Crs

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E

` Crores

Source: NIIT Tech, Ventura Research

Page 7: NIIT Technologies Ltd. - Powerchats.moneycontrol.com/plus/upload_pdf_file/NIITTech_PYT.pdfNIIT Technologies Ltd. BUY - 1 of 21 - Wednesday 23rd September, 2015

- 7 of 21- Wednesday 23rd

September, 2015

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Accentuation of revenues from BFSI vertical:

The BFSI segment accounts for 33% of the revenue share with more than a half

being contributed by the insurance vertical (17%). Within the insurance sub-

segment majority (2/3 rd) of the business is from the US geography (wherein it

facilitates implementation of third party software) with the rest being contributed

by UK (where it operates through its subsidiary NITL formed after acquisition of

Room Solutions).

Although during the period FY11-FY14, the BFSI segment grew at a robust

CAGR of 15%, FY15 witnessed a de-growth in revenues on account of a

slowdown in business from two of its BFSI clients in the US.

We expect the BFSI segment to resume its growth trajectory and scale

revenues to `1,058 crores by FY17 (2 year CAGR of 17%) on account of:

i) Launch of its new product - Advantage+ Suite which:

Aids in policy administration, exposure management and analytics,

Single platform for all insurance functions,

Driving underwriting productivity and profitability for clients.

ii) Foray into the fast growing digital space through acquisition of Incessant

Technologies:

Incessant Technologies, a Hyderabad based company, is engaged in

business process management and IT consulting with focus mainly on the

BFS vertical. NIIT Tech acquired a 51% stake in this company May, 2015.

BFSI Revenues estimated to grow at a 2 yr CAGR of 17% to `1,058 Crs

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E

` Crores

Degrowth 0.1%

Source: NIIT Tech, Ventura Research

Page 8: NIIT Technologies Ltd. - Powerchats.moneycontrol.com/plus/upload_pdf_file/NIITTech_PYT.pdfNIIT Technologies Ltd. BUY - 1 of 21 - Wednesday 23rd September, 2015

- 8 of 21- Wednesday 23rd

September, 2015

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The major benefits of this merger being:

Incessant provides digital services (mainly digital integration) majorly in

the BFS business in UK and APAC regions which enables NIIT Tech to

expand its footprint in those geographies.

It is a relatively new company (~4 yrs old) with a consistent 20% top line

growth to $17 mn in FY15 (which is expected to scale up to $ 24.5 mn

by FY17) and operates at significantly high margins (~25%).

Opens doors to extensive cross-selling opportunities as Incessant is

scarcely present in the US, and also it brings in 15 new client

relationships.

iii) Acquisition of 5 new BFSI accounts (excluding Incessant) one of which

is a Top 10 Insurance company in the US.

Expansion of business in its IMS service line:

The Infrastructure Management Services business currently contributes ~17%

to the overall revenues. While the business has a steady state in nature, it

provides the company with non linear growth opportunities through cross selling

of services without incurring a corresponding growth in costs. The IMS business

was a star performing segment growing at a healthy 43% despite overall the

company experiencing a marked slowdown. Moving forward, we expect the

revenues of its IMS business to grow at a CAGR of 28% to `694 crores by FY17

mainly from the manufacturing vertical wherein the company has acquired a

new client.

Incessant’s revenues are expected to grow at a 2 yr CAGR of 20%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2014 2015 2016E 2017E

2014 2015 2016E 2017E

$ Mn

Source: NIIT Tech, Ventura Research

Page 9: NIIT Technologies Ltd. - Powerchats.moneycontrol.com/plus/upload_pdf_file/NIITTech_PYT.pdfNIIT Technologies Ltd. BUY - 1 of 21 - Wednesday 23rd September, 2015

- 9 of 21- Wednesday 23rd

September, 2015

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Conscious de-growth of the government business in India:

During the period FY12-14, NIIT Tech’s India business grew robustly from `189

crores to `308 crores (27% CAGR) driven by business procured from

government sponsored projects. Government business formed approximately

50% of the Indian geography. However, marred by delays in project completion,

high DSOs and wafer thin margins of the Purchase for Resale segment (~2/3rds

of Government business), it decided to scale down its operations in the

government vertical considerably.

In FY15 revenues from this segment de-grew by 36% to ` 118 crores. Over the

forecast period FY15-17, we expect the revenues from government to further

decline to `44 crores (2% of the overall revenues).

IMS expected to grow at a 2 year CAGR of 28%, while Manufacturing is expected to grow at 30% CAGR

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E

` Crores

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E

` Crores

Source: NIIT Tech, Ventura Research

Government Revenues expected to stand at `44 crores by FY17

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E

` Crores

Source: NIIT Tech, Ventura Research

Page 10: NIIT Technologies Ltd. - Powerchats.moneycontrol.com/plus/upload_pdf_file/NIITTech_PYT.pdfNIIT Technologies Ltd. BUY - 1 of 21 - Wednesday 23rd September, 2015

- 10 of 21- Wednesday 23rd

September, 2015

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Stable operations in other verticals:

NIIT Tech’s other verticals include Media, Distribution and GIS Technology. All

of which have healthy clients with a sustainable and stable order inflow.

Its media operations comprise of a JV which was signed with Morris

Communications, Georgia for a deal worth $85 Mn over a period of 5 years in

FY12, wherein NIIT Tech provides integrated IT and BPO services to Morris

Communications. After the period of initial agreement, the business foreseen

from the JV stands at ~$20 Mn per year.

In its services to the manufacturing and distribution vertical, it provides IMS

services to Holcim and for Toyota, its engagement includes setting up

dealership management systems, an association which has lasted for 15 years.

For the GIS business, NIIT Tech has set up a subsidiary in which Esri Inc, USA

has a minority stake of 11%. The subsidiary is a sole distributor of ESRI’s GIS

platform in India and it accounts for ~4% of its overall revenues.

Looking forward to gradual business growth in its other verticals, we expect the

revenues from other verticals to stand at `379 crores by FY17 (2 year CAGR of

3%.)

Revenues from other verticals are estimated to remain flattish

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E

` Crores

Source: NIIT Tech, Ventura Research

Page 11: NIIT Technologies Ltd. - Powerchats.moneycontrol.com/plus/upload_pdf_file/NIITTech_PYT.pdfNIIT Technologies Ltd. BUY - 1 of 21 - Wednesday 23rd September, 2015

- 11 of 21- Wednesday 23rd

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Operating Initiatives to drive efficiency and improve employee metrics:

NIIT has recently undertaken new initiatives as a part of its strategy to improve

operational efficiency, which includes

1) Identifying Must have Accounts and Growing Top Accounts:

Certain must have accounts have been identified while also growing its top

accounts with sticky deals wherein there are miniscule chances of clients

changing their IT partners. This in turn boosts revenue sustainability and

stability.

2) Reinforcement and change in Leadership:

Significant changes in leadership in key areas clearly spells out that NIIT Tech

is aggressively chasing growth and augurs well for the company.

3) New Sales Incentive Policy:

The company has designed a new incentive policy for improving efficiency of its

business heads. As per the new policy, the calculation of incentives will be

largely based on incremental business that is garnered from the same client

along with business from new MHAs. This can lead to creation of large

sustainable client accounts with continuous order inflow.

We expect the above initiatives to sustainably increase its Revenues/Billed

Employee while simultaneously lowering the employee cost.

Positions for which New Business Heads Appointed

Leadership Positions Sales and Marketing Positions New Position

Europe Head US BFS Head Digital Head

Global Marketing Head US Insurance head

NITL Head Sales Head - Europe and US (T&T)

Service Design Head Marketing Heads - Europe, US, APAC

Source: NIIT Tech, Ventura Research

Page 12: NIIT Technologies Ltd. - Powerchats.moneycontrol.com/plus/upload_pdf_file/NIITTech_PYT.pdfNIIT Technologies Ltd. BUY - 1 of 21 - Wednesday 23rd September, 2015

- 12 of 21- Wednesday 23rd

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Thrust on Digital Services augurs well for future growth

According to McKinsey, Digital services which are estimated to constitute 9% of

overall industry IT spend in CY2013 is expected to jump to 36% of the overall

spend by CY2018. NIIT Tech’s Digital Services span across all service lines

and contributed to 14% of the overall revenues in Q4FY15.

NIIT Tech has identified four functional areas for implementing its digital

services strategy viz

i. Digital experience

ii. cloud

iii. analytics, and

iv. digital integration.

Within these functional segments it has identified focus areas to build service

offering around.

Operating Efficiencies to Sustainably Improve Employee Metrics

2500000

2800000

3100000

3400000

3700000

4000000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E

Revenue/ Billed Employee (`)

54.0

54.5

55.0

55.5

56.0

56.5

57.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E

Employee Cost/Sales %

Source: NIIT Tech, Ventura Research

Digital Strategy to Bolster Growth across all Verticals

Digital Experience Cloud Analytics Digital Integration

Multi-Channel SFDC Digital Foresight

Mobility Azure Business Intelligence

Digital Marketing Infra as a Service Exact + Acumen (NITL)

BA.com Leading Adviser Network Fortune 500 Insurer Large APAC Pipeline

Carey SCCC Bankers Financial Leading Air Transport Provider

Accelerators for Wealth

Management Advisors

Risk Aggregation for

Underwriters

AWS GTM Partnership Digital Foresight

Focus Areas

Marquee Examples

BPM

Middleware

IncessantService OfferingsDigital Commerce

Connected Passenger

Source: NIIT Tech, Ventura Research

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- 13 of 21- Wednesday 23rd

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The acquisition of Incessant will help bolster its service offerings in the digital

integration space which was sorely missing.

Key Risks 1) Slowdown in global IT Spend:

According to Gartner, global IT Spend is expected to decline in 2015 by 5.5%

to $ 3,507 Bn driven by the strengthening dollar, albeit in constant currency

terms spending is expected to rise by 2.7%. However going forward, the

spending is estimated to increase at a 2 year CAGR of 2.6% to $ 3,692 Bn.

Increase in IT spending in constant currency terms holds the key. Any negative

movement in the IT budgets globally would be a downside risk.

2) Weakening of US $:

With NIIT’s growth story being mainly US geography dominant, USD/INR

remains a key factor to its revenue growth story. A weakening dollar would

mean low rupee convertibility, negatively affecting its revenues.

Global IT spending to grow at a 2 year CAGR of 2.6% to $ 3,692 Bn

3000

3100

3200

3300

3400

3500

3600

3700

3800

CY2012 CY2013 CY2014 CY2015E CY2016E CY2017E

CY2012 CY2013 CY2014 CY2015E CY2016E CY2017E

$ Bn

Source: Gartner, Statista, Ventura Research

Page 14: NIIT Technologies Ltd. - Powerchats.moneycontrol.com/plus/upload_pdf_file/NIITTech_PYT.pdfNIIT Technologies Ltd. BUY - 1 of 21 - Wednesday 23rd September, 2015

- 14 of 21- Wednesday 23rd

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3) Slowdown in world economy:

IMF in its World Economic Outlook, July 2015 has estimated the US and Euro

Zone economies to improve marginally while it expects Middle East and Asian

economies to maintain plateaud growth.

NIIT’s growth story depends on its International business whose share is

estimated to rise to 91% in FY17 from 87% in FY15. US and EMEA’s share is

estimated to rise to 84% in FY17 from 79% in FY15. Hence, any effect of

slowdown or downside in economies where NIIT Tech operates could have a

crippling effect on revenues.

Global GDP trend remains a key monitorable

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2014 2015 2016E 2017E

US Euro Area UK MEA (RHS) India (RHS)

%%

Source: IMF, Ventura Research

Page 15: NIIT Technologies Ltd. - Powerchats.moneycontrol.com/plus/upload_pdf_file/NIITTech_PYT.pdfNIIT Technologies Ltd. BUY - 1 of 21 - Wednesday 23rd September, 2015

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September, 2015

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Financial Performance

In Q1FY16, NIIT Tech reported a 9% Y-o-Y increase in revenues to `641.1

crores. On a Q-o-Q basis, revenues were up by 5%, mainly due to the

acquisition of Incessant. Ex-Incessant revenues were up by 1.5%. BFSI

revenues were up by 15%, while transportation recorded a growth of 1.5%. On

the other hand, manufacturing and government businesses were down by 15%

and 14% respectively. EBITDA grew 4.5% Y-o-Y to 104.2 crores in Q1FY16;

EBITDA margin remained flat Y-o-Y at 16.3%. Incessant had a positive impact

on margins and its acquisition has been EPS accretive.

Key takeaways from financial performance of FY15

The company had provided for some of its receivables and claims to the extent

of `49 crores from its government business in FY15 which is expected to reduce

gradually. Also an exceptional item to the tune `80 crores had to be expensed

out by the company on account of settlement of a dispute with one of its clients,

These have dragged its operating and PAT margins in FY15.

Quarterly Performance (` Crores)

Particulars Q1FY16 Q1FY15 FY15 FY14

Net Sales 641.1 611.2 2372.5 2305.0

Growth % 9.0 2.9

Total Expenditure 536.9 511.5 2036.6 1950.8

EBITDA 104.2 99.7 335.9 354.2

Margin % 16.3 16.3 14.2 15.4

Depreciation 27.6 24.2 91.6 61.9

EBIT (Excl. OI) 76.6 75.5 244.2 292.3

Other Income 7.9 -6.6 17.3 30.2

EBIT 84.5 68.9 261.5 322.5

Margin % 13.2 11.3 11.0 14.0

Finance Costs 1.6 0.9 5.7 4.2

Exceptional Item 0.0 80.0 -80.0 0.0

PBT 82.9 -12.0 175.9 318.4

Margin % 12.9 -2.0 7.4 13.8

Tax Expense 21.9 4.7 54.0 80.2

PAT 61.0 -16.7 121.9 238.2

Margin % 9.5 -2.7 5.1 10.3 Source: NIIT Tech, Ventura Research

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Financial Outlook Over FY15-FY17 we expect the company to clock a 12.3% CAGR in revenues

to `2,996 crores led by growth in its international revenue through its various

business verticals. On a constant currency basis, revenues are expected to

grow by 6.5% and 8% respectively for FY16 and FY17.

This is expected lead to a 2 year CAGR growth of 27% and 58% in its EBITDA

and PAT respectively. We expect the EBITDA and PAT margins to bounce back

to 18.3% (+410 bps) and 9.5% (+470 bps) by FY17.

Revenues expected to grow at a 2 year CAGR of 12.3% to `2,996 crores

0.00

500.00

1000.00

1500.00

2000.00

2500.00

3000.00

3500.00

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E

` Crores

Source: NIIT Tech, Ventura Research

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Improving profitability is expected to improve its RoCE and RoE which had taken

a dip in FY15 due to a muted growth in revenues along with provisions and write

offs. We expect RoCE to and RoE to stand at 35.1% and 17.8% respectively by

FY17 from 26.2% and 8.5% respectively in FY15.

EBITDA and PAT to grow at a 2 year CAGR of 27% and 58% by FY17 on the back of improving margins

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E

EBITDA EBITDA %

%` Crores

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E

PAT PAT %

` Crores %

Source: NIIT Tech, Ventura Research

Return ratios to improve on the back of rising profitability

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E

ROCE

%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E

ROE

%

Source: NIIT Tech, Ventura Research

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Valuation

We initiate coverage on NIIT Tech as a BUY with a Target Price of `644

representing a potential upside of ~44% on the CMP of `448 over a period of 18

months. Our target price implies a multiple of 14x over its FY17E EPS.

Peer Comparison

Y/E MarchSales

(` Crs.)

EBITDA

(` Crs.)

PAT

(` Crs.)

EBITDA

Margin (%)

PAT

Margin (%)ROE (%) P/E (x) P/BV (x)

EV/

EBITDA (x)

NIIT Tech

2014 2305.0 354.2 230.5 15.4 10.0 19.1 11.8 2.1 7.1

2015 2372.5 335.9 114.1 14.2 4.8 8.5 24.0 2.0 7.4

2016E 2659.4 438.9 203.2 16.5 7.6 14.3 13.5 1.8 5.8

2017E 2996.0 539.8 281.0 18.0 9.4 17.7 9.7 1.6 4.2

Comparable IT Players

Mindtree

2014 3031.6 610.2 451.0 20.1 14.9 30.5 22.0 7.2 16.9

2015 3546.1 720.0 532.2 20.3 15.0 28.1 21.2 5.4 15.3

2016E 4354.3 808.0 587.1 18.6 13.5 24.6 19.7 4.5 13.5

2017E 4962.2 969.4 675.1 19.5 13.6 23.6 17.1 3.7 11.3

Zensar Technologies

2014 2335.0 388.4 237.5 16.6 10.2 25.1 16.2 4.1 9.4

2015 2627.7 391.8 264.6 14.9 10.1 22.5 13.4 3.0 9.6

2016E 2998.3 486.7 327.8 16.2 10.9 22.7 11.0 2.6 7.7

2017E 3410.3 530.1 376.0 15.5 11.0 21.1 9.6 2.2 7.1

Top IT Players

TCS

2014 81809.2 25115.4 19325.4 30.7 23.6 34.5 27.3 9.4 18.5

2015 46954.5 10460.9 8652.8 22.3 18.4 22.9 16.7 3.6 12.0

2016E 51286.5 11265.1 9191.1 22.0 17.9 20.9 15.5 3.1 11.0

2017E 56562.3 12492.3 10173.0 22.1 18.0 20.3 14.0 2.7 9.5

Infosys

2014 50133.0 13636.2 10648.0 27.2 21.2 22.9 24.3 5.6 16.2

2015 53319.0 14901.0 12329.0 27.9 23.1 24.7 20.2 4.7 14.6

2016E 60252.3 16641.1 13262.1 27.6 22.0 23.3 19.0 4.3 13.3

2017E 68100.7 19143.0 15197.8 28.1 22.3 24.2 16.6 3.8 11.4

Wipro

2014 43754.9 10046.0 7840.5 23.0 17.9 20.9 18.1 4.1 12.4

2015 1682.1 167.7 133.7 10.0 7.9 28.0 12.5 3.4 11.4

2016E 1887.0 189.0 150.0 10.0 7.9 32.2 9.7 2.9 10.5

2017E 1919.0 221.0 173.0 11.5 9.0 31.8 8.4 2.5 9.1 Source: Ventura Research

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P/E

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15

CMP 5X 8X 11X 14X 17X

`

Source: NIIT Tech, Ventura Research

EV/EBITDA

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15

EV 2X 4X 6X 8X 10X

` Crores

Source: NIIT Tech, Ventura Research

P/BV

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15

CMP 0.5X 1.25X 2X 2.75X 3.5X

`

Source: NIIT Tech, Ventura Research

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Financials and Projections

Y/E March, Fig in ` Cr FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016e FY 2017e Y/E March, Fig in ` Cr FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016e FY 2017e

Profit & Loss Statement Per Share Data (`)

Net Sales 2305.0 2372.5 2659.4 2996.0 EPS 38.0 18.7 33.3 46.0

% Chg. 14.0 2.9 12.1 12.7 Cash EPS 26.6 48.4 37.5 58.7

Total Expenditure 1950.8 2036.6 2220.5 2456.3 DPS 9.02 9.51 10.17 10.88

% Chg. 15.5 4.4 9.0 10.6 Book Value 218 222 244 277

EBITDA 354.2 335.9 438.9 539.8 Capital, Liquidity, Returns Ratio

EBITDA Margin % 15.4 14.2 16.5 18.0 Debt / Equity (x) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Other Income 30.2 17.3 16.0 15.7 Current Ratio (x) 2.7 2.1 2.4 2.8

Exceptional items 0.0 -80.0 0.0 0.0 ROE (%) 19.1 8.5 14.3 17.7

PBDIT 384.4 273.2 455.0 555.5 ROCE (%) 31.7 26.2 31.9 34.9

Depreciation 61.9 91.6 130.4 123.0 Dividend Yield (%) 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4

Finance Costs 4.2 5.7 5.3 5.2 Valuation Ratio (x)

PBT 318.4 175.9 319.3 427.3 P/E 11.8 24.0 13.5 9.7

Tax Provisions 80.2 54.0 105.4 134.6 P/BV 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.6

Reported PAT 238.2 121.9 213.9 292.7 EV/Sales 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8

Minority Interest -7.6 -7.9 -10.7 -11.7 EV/EBIDTA 7.1 7.4 5.8 4.2

PAT 230.5 114.1 203.2 281.0 Efficiency Ratios

PAT Margin (%) 10.0 4.8 7.6 9.4 Inventory Days 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Employee Costs/Sales % 56.1 56.5 55.7 55.1 Debtors Days 89.4 93.2 85.0 80.0

Tax rate (%) 25.2 30.7 33.0 31.5 Creditors Days 63.3 83.5 76.7 69.4

Balance Sheet Cash Flow Statement

Share Capital 63.4 64.0 64.1 64.1 Profit Before Tax 318.38 175.91 319.28 427.34

Reserves & Surplus 1260.5 1293.3 1423.9 1627.2 Depreciation & Amortisation 61.9 91.6 130.4 123.0

Minority Interest 18.90 18.87 29.56 41.27 Working Capital Changes -116.0 125.9 -85.6 -33.9

Other Long Term Liabilities 31.0 33.9 37.0 41.3 Direct Taxes Paid & Others -102.5 -98.0 -135.1 -158.0

Total Loans 5.3 4.9 4.5 4.3 Operating Cash Flow 161.7 295.5 229 358

Total Liabilities 1379.0 1414.9 1559.1 1778.1 Capital Expenditure -149.7 -174.5 -208.2 -69.1

Gross Block 750.8 933.6 1229.6 1294.6 Other Income Received 30.2 17.3 16.0 15.7

Less: Acc. Depreciation 297.5 375.7 506.1 629.1 Others 8 -20 -10 23

Net Block 453.4 557.9 723.5 665.6 Cash Flow from Investing -111.2 -177 -203 -31

Capital Work in Progress 128.6 120.3 32.5 36.6 Inc/(Dec) in Loan Fund -0.3 -0.5 -0.7 -0.4

Long Terms Loans and Advances 24.3 44.3 44.8 36.7 Interest Paid and Others -61.9 -70.2 -78.3 -77.8

Net Current Assets 719.2 623.3 711.1 1000.0 Cash Flow from Financing -62.2 -70.8 -79.1 -78.2

Deferred Tax Assets 22.3 38.6 18.8 12.3 Net Change in Cash -11.7 48.0 -52.7 249.7

Other Non-Current Assets 31.2 30.5 28.5 27.0 Opening Cash Balance 232.9 221.2 269.2 216.5

Total Assets 1379.0 1414.9 1559.1 1778.1 Closing Cash Balance 221.2 269.2 216.5 466.2

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Disclosures and Disclaimer Ventura Securities Limited (VSL) is a SEBI registered intermediary offering broking, depository and portfolio management services to clients. VSL is member of BSE, NSE and MCX-SX. VSL is a depository participant of NSDL. VSL states that no disciplinary action whatsoever has been taken by SEBI against it in last five years except administrative warning issued in connection with technical and venial lapses observed while inspection of books of accounts and records. Ventura Commodities Limited, Ventura Guaranty Limited, Ventura Insurance Brokers Limited and Ventura Allied Services Private Limited are associates of VSL. Research Analyst (RA) involved in the preparation of this research report and VSL disclose that neither RA nor VSL nor its associates (i) have any financial interest in the company which is the subject matter of this research report (ii) holds ownership of one percent or more in the securities of subject company (iii) have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this research report (iv) have received any compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months (v) have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in past twelve months (vi) have received any compensation for investment banking merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months (vii) have received any compensation for product or services from the subject company in the past twelve months (viii) have received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report. RA involved in the preparation of this research report discloses that he / she has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. RA involved in the preparation of this research report and VSL discloses that they have not been engaged in the market making activity for the subject company. Our sales people, dealers, traders and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein. We may have earlier issued or may issue in future reports on the companies covered herein with recommendations/ information inconsistent or different those made in this report. In reviewing this document, you should be aware that any or all of the foregoing, among other things, may give rise to or potential conflicts of interest. We may rely on information barriers, such as "Chinese Walls" to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas within us, or other areas, units, groups or affiliates of VSL. This report is for information purposes only and this document/material should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, purchase or subscribe to any securities, and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. This document does not solicit any action based on the material contained herein. It is for the general information of the clients / prospective clients of VSL. VSL will not treat recipients as clients by virtue of their receiving this report. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of clients / prospective clients. Similarly, this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation/circumstances and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investor's individual circumstances and objectives. Persons who may receive this document should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for his/ her/their particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional/financial advice. And such person shall be responsible for conducting his/her/their own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in the securities forming the subject matter of this document. The projections and forecasts described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the projections and forecasts were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results, and such variances will likely increase over time. All projections and forecasts described in this report have been prepared solely by the authors of this report independently of the Company. These projections and forecasts were not prepared with a view toward compliance with published guidelines or generally accepted accounting principles. No independent accountants have expressed an opinion or any other form of assurance on these projections or forecasts. You should not regard the inclusion of the projections and forecasts described herein as a representation or warranty by VSL, its associates, the authors of this report or any other person that these projections or forecasts or their underlying assumptions will be achieved. For these reasons, you should only consider the projections and forecasts described in this report after carefully evaluating all of the information in this report, including the assumptions underlying such projections and forecasts. The price and value of the investments referred to in this document/material and the income from them may go down as well as up, and investors may realize losses on any investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capital may occur. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. We do not provide tax advice to our clients, and all investors are strongly advised to consult regarding any potential investment. VSL, the RA involved in the preparation of this research report and its associates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. This report/document has been prepared by VSL, based upon information available to the public and sources, believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty, express or implied is made that it is accurate or complete. VSL has reviewed the report and, in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable, although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The opinions expressed in this document/material are subject to change without notice and have no obligation to tell you when opinions or information in this report change. 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The opinions and projections expressed herein are entirely those of the author and are given as part of the normal research activity of VSL and are given as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Any opinion estimate or projection herein constitutes a view as of the date of this report and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions, estimate or projection. This document has not been prepared by or in conjunction with or on behalf of or at the instigation of, or by arrangement with the company or any of its directors or any other person. Information in this document must not be relied upon as having been authorized or approved by the company or its directors or any other person. Any opinions and projections contained herein are entirely those of the authors. None of the company or its directors or any other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. The information contained herein is not intended for publication or distribution or circulation in any manner whatsoever and any unauthorized reading, dissemination, distribution or copying of this communication is prohibited unless otherwise expressly authorized. Please ensure that you have read “Risk Disclosure Document for Capital Market and Derivatives Segments” as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in Securities Market. Ventura Securities Limited

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