ngo roundtable meeting 25 th july 2007 agro/biofuels – a climate disaster in the making...
TRANSCRIPT
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NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Agro/Biofuels- more than a red herring
- a climate disaster in the making
Biofuelwatch
introduced by Dr Andrew Boswell, biofuelwatch and UK Green Party councillor on Norfolk County Councl
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NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Summary• Climate Change background -
urgency to avoid catastropic climate change
• The “Green Fuel” hype and drivers• Agrofuels are accelerating climate
change• Descending the transport emissions
curve - Demand reduction is key
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NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Emission sources• Deforestation, agriculture and peat• Anthropogenic energy
From Stern
Report
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NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
How much warming / ghgs is safe?
• None! Present ‘Radiative forcings’ already over safe levels
• Total Greenhouse Gases – 460 ppm CO2e (CO2 - 384 ppm)
• Total positive radiative forcing from humans – 560ppm CO2e
• 2˚C warming is maximum to avoid runaway climate change – most scientists think 450-550 ppm C02e equivalents is limit
• Jim Hansen (NASA) says 1.8˚C max.- Siberian Tundra close to melting
- C02 already emitted but not forced=0.6˚C• We are experiencing effects from 30 years ago
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NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
1950 2000 20501900 2100
Rest of World
India
ChinaAnnex 1 (non-OECD)
OECD minus USA
USA
Contraction and Convergence
Business as Usual (BAU) = Expansion and Divergence
Emissions are contracting
Converging to per capita level
Continue to contract to post carbon era
2000
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NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Runaway Climate Change• Speed up of Arctic Ice Melt• Siberian Tundra melt (Methane)• Deep Ocean Methane Hydrates• Melting of Greenland Ice Sheet• Melting / break up of West Antartica
Ice Sheet• Switching off of Gulf Stream• Loss of Ocean/Biosphere Carbon
sinks
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NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Rest of World
India
ChinaAnnex 1 (non-OECD)
OECD minus USA
USA
The issue is not can we stop climate
change BUT can we stop
catastopic runaway climate change?
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NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39
Deep cuts needed – EU, US, China etc
UK emissions
---- Government target____ Friends of the Earth Big Ask 3% annually ____ George Monbiot near linear >4% (90% by
2030) ____ George Monbiot 7% front-loaded (90% by 2030)____ George Monbiot 10% front-loaded (90% by 2030)
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
1990 2000 2010 2020
2050 Govt. target : 60% reduction
2010 Govt. target : 20% reduction
The GAP which must be closed
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NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
The Green fuel hype
Can agrofuels in road transport AND now rail and aviation make a significant impact to GHG levels?
Exponential Growth
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NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
US / EU Policy – going off the graph
EU – 10% by 2020 (1% now)
2010 2020
US – 20% by 2020 (4% now)
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NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Mega-scale Agrofuel drivers• Government and corporate subsidy and
promotion• Fits “Business as usual” policies and paradigms
– Year-on-year economic growth– Avoid unpopular “demand reduction” politics
• Short term “energy security” fix– Less pressure on Oil hotspots – Mid-East/Iraq– Stabilising Oil price?– EU / US “Oil independence”
• New global mega-industry and infrastructure– agribusiness, biotech, and chemical sectors – refining, tankage and shipping sectors – commodity markets (eg Palm Oil, sugar, corn)
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NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Do Agrofuels save emissions?• Agrofuel infrastructure is built on
Fossil Fuel infrastructure– Intensive agriculture – fossil fuel based –
fertilisers, farm equipment, Nitrous oxide emissions (300* CO2), soil carbon emissions
– Feedstock transport, shipping, ports– Refining (coal, gas fired plants!) ;
process chemicals
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NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Incomplete agrofuel life-cycle studies • Ignores
– Land-use change– Soil erosion– N2O emissions – chemical fertilizer
impact greater in tropics
• Micro studies – don’t scale up– Fuel stock transport miles– Economic/market effects – rape seed oil
in EU is blended with Palm Oil
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NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Poor savings even in isolation• Corn Ethanol – 13% savings –
Berkeley 2006 study– Patzek – actually 50%-100% more CO2
for ethanol than for fossil fuels
•The Red herring or the vegetarian car?! – Consumers conned about making
significant carbon ‘savings’
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NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Massive land-use change in global South, and crop commodity traffic
Massive emission exports from industralised nations to global South
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NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Emission trickery
Exporting emissions from Northern
transport to Southern agriculture and
landuse
NB: Soil + Peat not included
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Agrofuels are accelerating climate change
Deforestation for oil palms, Colombia
Fires to clear land for palm oil, KalimantanPhoto by Nordin, Save our Borneo
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NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Peat drainage and destructionDrainage • Dry peat - oxidises and, over time, emits
all its carbon as CO2. 42-50 billion tonnes of carbon stored in those SE Asian peatlands.
Fires • Many set by plantation companies, greatly
accelerate the loss of carbon.
• Of the 27.1 million hectares of peatland in South-east Asia, 12 million hectares are deforested and mostly drained.
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NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Agrofuels as a new driver of peatland destruction
Indonesia plans 20 million hectares new oil palm plantations to meet biodiesel demand.
$17.4 billion investment deals in Indonesian palm oil agreed this year.
According to 2006 FAO report, growth in European rapeseed oil biodiesel has significantly pushed up global palm oil prices.
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NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Peat Destruction 2
•
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NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
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NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Deforestation• “with partial deforestation the entire
landscape could become drier and a domino effect could occur producing a ‘tipping point’ affecting the whole forest”.
Conclusion of recent scientific conference
• Amazon drying out – die-back threat increasing - 120 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide
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NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Amazon Deforestation and Drought
Deforestation in Novo Progreso, Brazil ; Alberto Cesar/Greenpeace/AP
Amazon drought 2005, Lake Rei
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NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
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NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Bio-agrofuels are nonsense at the system level
• THE DILUTION FACTOR - 1% biofuels today– Assume 10% C emissions savings litre for litre– Total saving = 0.1% saving globally
• Most optimistic 2020 : 5% BFs – 0.5% savings
• Same savings can be made by:– Each driver driving 0.5% less (ie 50 miles for UK driver)– OR Each driver goes 2 mph slower– OR Tyres inflated properly
• 20% - 50% DEMAND REDUCTION transport sector savings could be achieved in 10-20 years– Sustainable transport, modal shift, social planning - work-home
relocation etc
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NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Descending the transport emissions curve - Demand reduction is key
160
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80
60
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20
1990 2000 2010 2020
Reduce vehicle emissions by 50%
- smaller, more efficient vehicles
Reduce journeys – planning, modal shift, decouple transport
from economy
Reduce liquid fuel – plug-in hybrids
Change Supply - Concentrating Solar
Power ?
Current EU energy policy
90% carbon emission reduction needed
URGENTLY!
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NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
The Climate Context• 1st generation biofuels
– Very little climate benefit – Often a climate disaster
• Eg Indonesian peat lands• Deforestation tropics• Yet mass-scale infrastructure and investment
ready for• 2nd generation biofuels
– 15-20 years to develop– BUT emissions must be cut now– Biohazards (even now in R&D)– Deforestation boreal and temporate
Transport sector DEMAND REDUCTION
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NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Networking• What factsheets, lobbying support would be useful for your
organisation?
• Show solidarity with communities in the global South, please sign the call for an immediate moratorium on EU incentives for agrofuels, EU imports of agrofuels and EU agroenergy monocultures. http://www.econexus.info/biofuels.html
• Sign up to the biofuelwatch yahoo group - send a blank email to [email protected]
• www.biofuelwatch.org.uk ALERTS and RESOURCES eg:– Supporting Paraguayan communities– write to Tesco – Uganda’s Mabira rainforest - sugar cane plantations
• Email us at [email protected] if you would like to get more involved in the campaign.