NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Agro/Biofuels- more than a red herring
- a climate disaster in the making
Biofuelwatch
introduced by Dr Andrew Boswell, biofuelwatch and UK Green Party councillor on Norfolk County Councl
NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Summary• Climate Change background -
urgency to avoid catastropic climate change
• The “Green Fuel” hype and drivers• Agrofuels are accelerating climate
change• Descending the transport emissions
curve - Demand reduction is key
NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Emission sources• Deforestation, agriculture and peat• Anthropogenic energy
From Stern
Report
NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
How much warming / ghgs is safe?
• None! Present ‘Radiative forcings’ already over safe levels
• Total Greenhouse Gases – 460 ppm CO2e (CO2 - 384 ppm)
• Total positive radiative forcing from humans – 560ppm CO2e
• 2˚C warming is maximum to avoid runaway climate change – most scientists think 450-550 ppm C02e equivalents is limit
• Jim Hansen (NASA) says 1.8˚C max.- Siberian Tundra close to melting
- C02 already emitted but not forced=0.6˚C• We are experiencing effects from 30 years ago
NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
1950 2000 20501900 2100
Rest of World
India
ChinaAnnex 1 (non-OECD)
OECD minus USA
USA
Contraction and Convergence
Business as Usual (BAU) = Expansion and Divergence
Emissions are contracting
Converging to per capita level
Continue to contract to post carbon era
2000
NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Runaway Climate Change• Speed up of Arctic Ice Melt• Siberian Tundra melt (Methane)• Deep Ocean Methane Hydrates• Melting of Greenland Ice Sheet• Melting / break up of West Antartica
Ice Sheet• Switching off of Gulf Stream• Loss of Ocean/Biosphere Carbon
sinks
NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Rest of World
India
ChinaAnnex 1 (non-OECD)
OECD minus USA
USA
The issue is not can we stop climate
change BUT can we stop
catastopic runaway climate change?
NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39
Deep cuts needed – EU, US, China etc
UK emissions
---- Government target____ Friends of the Earth Big Ask 3% annually ____ George Monbiot near linear >4% (90% by
2030) ____ George Monbiot 7% front-loaded (90% by 2030)____ George Monbiot 10% front-loaded (90% by 2030)
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
1990 2000 2010 2020
2050 Govt. target : 60% reduction
2010 Govt. target : 20% reduction
The GAP which must be closed
NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
The Green fuel hype
Can agrofuels in road transport AND now rail and aviation make a significant impact to GHG levels?
Exponential Growth
NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
US / EU Policy – going off the graph
EU – 10% by 2020 (1% now)
2010 2020
US – 20% by 2020 (4% now)
NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Mega-scale Agrofuel drivers• Government and corporate subsidy and
promotion• Fits “Business as usual” policies and paradigms
– Year-on-year economic growth– Avoid unpopular “demand reduction” politics
• Short term “energy security” fix– Less pressure on Oil hotspots – Mid-East/Iraq– Stabilising Oil price?– EU / US “Oil independence”
• New global mega-industry and infrastructure– agribusiness, biotech, and chemical sectors – refining, tankage and shipping sectors – commodity markets (eg Palm Oil, sugar, corn)
NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Do Agrofuels save emissions?• Agrofuel infrastructure is built on
Fossil Fuel infrastructure– Intensive agriculture – fossil fuel based –
fertilisers, farm equipment, Nitrous oxide emissions (300* CO2), soil carbon emissions
– Feedstock transport, shipping, ports– Refining (coal, gas fired plants!) ;
process chemicals
NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Incomplete agrofuel life-cycle studies • Ignores
– Land-use change– Soil erosion– N2O emissions – chemical fertilizer
impact greater in tropics
• Micro studies – don’t scale up– Fuel stock transport miles– Economic/market effects – rape seed oil
in EU is blended with Palm Oil
NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Poor savings even in isolation• Corn Ethanol – 13% savings –
Berkeley 2006 study– Patzek – actually 50%-100% more CO2
for ethanol than for fossil fuels
•The Red herring or the vegetarian car?! – Consumers conned about making
significant carbon ‘savings’
NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Massive land-use change in global South, and crop commodity traffic
Massive emission exports from industralised nations to global South
NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Emission trickery
Exporting emissions from Northern
transport to Southern agriculture and
landuse
NB: Soil + Peat not included
Agrofuels are accelerating climate change
Deforestation for oil palms, Colombia
Fires to clear land for palm oil, KalimantanPhoto by Nordin, Save our Borneo
NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Peat drainage and destructionDrainage • Dry peat - oxidises and, over time, emits
all its carbon as CO2. 42-50 billion tonnes of carbon stored in those SE Asian peatlands.
Fires • Many set by plantation companies, greatly
accelerate the loss of carbon.
• Of the 27.1 million hectares of peatland in South-east Asia, 12 million hectares are deforested and mostly drained.
NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Agrofuels as a new driver of peatland destruction
Indonesia plans 20 million hectares new oil palm plantations to meet biodiesel demand.
$17.4 billion investment deals in Indonesian palm oil agreed this year.
According to 2006 FAO report, growth in European rapeseed oil biodiesel has significantly pushed up global palm oil prices.
NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Peat Destruction 2
•
NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Deforestation• “with partial deforestation the entire
landscape could become drier and a domino effect could occur producing a ‘tipping point’ affecting the whole forest”.
Conclusion of recent scientific conference
• Amazon drying out – die-back threat increasing - 120 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide
NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Amazon Deforestation and Drought
Deforestation in Novo Progreso, Brazil ; Alberto Cesar/Greenpeace/AP
Amazon drought 2005, Lake Rei
NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Bio-agrofuels are nonsense at the system level
• THE DILUTION FACTOR - 1% biofuels today– Assume 10% C emissions savings litre for litre– Total saving = 0.1% saving globally
• Most optimistic 2020 : 5% BFs – 0.5% savings
• Same savings can be made by:– Each driver driving 0.5% less (ie 50 miles for UK driver)– OR Each driver goes 2 mph slower– OR Tyres inflated properly
• 20% - 50% DEMAND REDUCTION transport sector savings could be achieved in 10-20 years– Sustainable transport, modal shift, social planning - work-home
relocation etc
NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Descending the transport emissions curve - Demand reduction is key
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
1990 2000 2010 2020
Reduce vehicle emissions by 50%
- smaller, more efficient vehicles
Reduce journeys – planning, modal shift, decouple transport
from economy
Reduce liquid fuel – plug-in hybrids
Change Supply - Concentrating Solar
Power ?
Current EU energy policy
90% carbon emission reduction needed
URGENTLY!
NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
The Climate Context• 1st generation biofuels
– Very little climate benefit – Often a climate disaster
• Eg Indonesian peat lands• Deforestation tropics• Yet mass-scale infrastructure and investment
ready for• 2nd generation biofuels
– 15-20 years to develop– BUT emissions must be cut now– Biohazards (even now in R&D)– Deforestation boreal and temporate
Transport sector DEMAND REDUCTION
NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Networking• What factsheets, lobbying support would be useful for your
organisation?
• Show solidarity with communities in the global South, please sign the call for an immediate moratorium on EU incentives for agrofuels, EU imports of agrofuels and EU agroenergy monocultures. http://www.econexus.info/biofuels.html
• Sign up to the biofuelwatch yahoo group - send a blank email to [email protected]
• www.biofuelwatch.org.uk ALERTS and RESOURCES eg:– Supporting Paraguayan communities– write to Tesco – Uganda’s Mabira rainforest - sugar cane plantations
• Email us at [email protected] if you would like to get more involved in the campaign.