newsletter - sustainable population...

– SPA Newsletter No 82, October, 2008 Printed on 100% recycled paper.

Sustainable Population Australia IncFormerly Australians for an Ecologically Sustainable PopulationNo. 82

October, 2008 Patrons:Professor Frank Fenner Professor Ian LoweProfessor Tim Flannery Dr Mary WhiteDr Paul Collins

NEWSLETTER

WHERE IS AUSTRALIA’S POPULATION GOING?

The latest projections from the Bureau of StatisticsThe latest population projections for Australia from the Bureau of Statistics. based on 2006 Census data are not

encouraging. These projections show the changes in population that would occur if certain assumptions based on recent trends apply.. Three sets of assumptions have been modelled and the results indicate the population if these assumptions hold true. Model A uses a higher net overseas migration (220,000) than our latest figures (184,000) and a higher fertility rate (2.0) than we have today with raised life expectancy at birth values. These estimates of Australia’s population at year 2056 range from 30.9 million to 42.5 million.

From the viewpoint of this organization, Series A projections are our worst nightmare with a population of 42.5 million in 2056. Series B reflects more closely current trends in fertility, life expectancy at birth and net migration. This could be described as ‘the Business as Usual Model’. Series C uses a lower Fertility rate and lower net migration with life expectancy values meeting current trends. Obviously this would be our preferred option.

In the last two years Australia‘s growth rate increased from its average 1.3% to 1.5% with Net Overseas Migration overtaking Natural Increase as the major contributor, but both contributors to growth have increased. In 2006-07,

there were 274,300 births and 134,800 deaths in Australia. This resulted in a natural increase of 139,500 people, while NOM contributed 177,600 people to Australia’s population.

In contrast to the previous (2004) projections, no series shows a decline in Australia’s population before the end of the century. For Series C, deaths would outnumber births by 2048 giving a natural decrease in population but im-migration more than makes up the decline and population growth simply increases at a slower rate. Natural decrease in Series B is only reached in the year 2101. The message is clear. Without a change in government policies or some


natural calamity, Australia’s population growth is set to continue for a long time.POPULATION AGING

The median age of the population is projected to increase from 36.8 years in 2007 to between 38.7 and 40.7 years in 2026 and between 41.9 and 45.2 years in 2056. (These are the extreme values for series A and C projections.)

In 2007, the 13% of the population aged 65 and over in 2007 is projected to grow to between 23 to 25% in 2056. The proportion of the population under 15 years, would decline from 18% in 2007 to between 14 to 17% in 2056. Eighty five year olds and over would increase from 344,100 or 1.6% of the population to between 4.9 to 7.3% in 2056.

THE STATES AND TERRITORIESAll States and Territories except Tasmania are projected to have continuing growth up to 2056. Tasmania’s popu-

lation is projected to increase slowly before levelling out by around 2040 and then decreasing marginally from 2051 onwards.

Queensland shows the greatest growth and rate of growth (109%) by 2056 and would become the second most populous state in 2050 overtaking Victoria. New South Wales and Victoria each gain over 3 million by 2056. The next highest growth rates occur in WA (104%) and the Northern Territory (87%).

Urbanization continues to increase with the growth of capital cities greater than growth in their regions. The total population in these cities projected to increase from 64% to 67% of the total population by June 30 2056.

POPULATION GROWTH OF CAPITAL CITIESSeries B assumptions see Sydney remaining the most populous city in Australia. (Series A model projects

Melbourne overtaking Sydney in 2039 due largely to the greater interstate migration out of Sydney.) Perth is projected to experience the greatest percentage growth (116%) followed closely by Brisbane (114%). Darwin is also projected to double in size.#

Population size of States: (observed and projected Series B) (30th June figures for Series B projections with increases for 2056 compared to 2007)

Population size of capital cities: (observed and projected Series B)(30th June figures for Series B projections with increases for 2056 compared to 2007)


Paid Maternity Leave: Your opportunity to comment.

Working women will receive 18 weeks pay from the government at the minimun wage under a recent proposal from the Productivity Commission. They would be eligible for this after 12 months’ service. Partners would get two weeks’ paid leave, but if they are the primary carer would be able to share the maternity leave. Employers would pay the superannuation contribution. Mothers not in work would get $5,000.

The report may be downloaded from the inquiry website at: http://www.pc.gov.au/projects/inquiry/parental-support .

The Commission’s working paper, “Recent Trends in Australian Fertility” (http://www.pc.gov.au/research/

staffworkingpaper/fertility-trends ) provides some interesting information. With the recent strong growth in fertility the report estimates that the Total Fertility Rate (num-ber of children a female would bear in her life-time) will be around 1.93 in 2007, up from 1.81 in 2006 and the highest fer-tility rate since the early 1980s. With no other change this higher fertil-

ity rate would retard labour force per capita growth over the next 30 years and aggravate fiscal pressures. The report concludes that even with fertility rates as high as the 3.1 of the baby boom and with zero net overseas migration, Australia’s population would grow to unsustainable levels. Significant if muted aging would still occur. Fertility values from 1.7 to 2.1 are regarded as being in the ‘safe range’ of Anglo-Saxon and Nordic countries.

It is worth remembering some findings of the 2007 OECD report “Babies and bosses - Reconciling Work and Family Life; A synthesis of findings for OECD countries.” (http://www.oecd.org/document/45/0,3343,en_2649_34819_39651501_1_1_1_1,00.html )

Australia’s public expenditure on families has risen in recent years and now is amongst the highest in the OECD. Most spending is on Family Tax Benefit with large con-tributions also for Lone Parent Benefit and for parenting payments to jobless couples with children.

The question remains. Should some or all of these benefits, including paid parenting leave be restricted to the first two children only or alternatively reduced for births beyond the second child?

Public submissions on the draft report.are invited. These must reach the Productivity Commission by Friday 14 November. Public hearings will be held in the three

weeks beginning Monday 10 November. Dates and locations will be advised on the inquiry website during October. The final report will go to Government on 28th February, 2009.#

Economic growth needed to employ im-migrants”

Interview with Dr Shane Oliver (SO), Chief Econo-mist, AMP Capital Investors

http://www.abc.net.au/rn/breakfast/tories/2008/2353855.htm For some time now we have been told that we need

immigrants to this country to fill the enormous number of job vacancies left unfilled. However, it seems we have been fed ‘spin’ by the business leaders and economic con-sultants. The story line goes that the gowth in immigration from 171,000 in 2007-08 to a forecast 203,000 in 2008-09 is required to support the economy. The benefits to the country have been modelled and mount into the billions of dollars over 20 years.

Imagine my surprise when listening to an interview by Fran Kelly (FK) with Shane Oliver the other day, discussing the economy and in particular the impact of the latest interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank and the expected slowdown in the ABS GDP figures for the April -June quarter on employment. Here we have Shane Oliver telling us that now we have to maintain a high level of economic growth (3.5%) to enable the country to pro-vide jobs to employ the large number of immigrants we have coming into the country. Its the ‘smartest’ about face I think I have ever seen.

<snip> FK If growth has slowed further, if we find that out

in the National Accounts today, what will that mean for unemployment?

SO Well, the bottom line is that Australia needs to have (GDP) growth of between 3 to 31/2% each year to absorb the new entrants to the labour force and those new entrants are coming from natural growth in the popula-tion and pretty high immigration levels. So if we’ve got (GDP) growth running way below that and through the first half of this year average growth will be something of the order of about 2% if you average the March and June quarters, then that suggests that unemployment will start to rise and in a year’s time I think we’ll see unemployment well above 5%, maybe 51/2% and even though the labour force figures don’t yet show that, all the labour force fig-ures show is a slowdown in employment growth. There is a lot of anecdotal evidence out there with a whole range of companies over the last couple of months announcing layoffs including Holden, Ford, IAG, Qantas, National Australia Bank, and the list goes on, so I think we will see rising unemployment.

<snip> (ABC Radio National “Breakfast” with Fran Kelly (FK), 3rd September 2008 )

(Transcription terminated.)#


Good work Senator Brown!by Paddy Weaver

Three SPA members, Jill Quirk and Peter Schlesinger of the Victorian Branch and Tom Nilsson from Tasmania have recently talked to Greens Senator Bob Brown con-cerning Australia’s population growth. Their discussions followed a question from Senator Brown to Senator Chris Evans representing the Prime Minister on June 23rd 2008.

Following the SPA representative’s discussions Senator Bob Brown asked further population questions on September 23rd.

The account below is taken from Hansard, no one’s fa-vourite reading we know. But this is important, Bob Brown reports that where-ever he goes he is asked , ‘What about population growth?’ and states that this is an issue that “so many Australians want .. debated.”

Not only is this encouraging news that the population issue is coming to the fore but it is an issue where every member can take effective action. Bob Brown faces con-siderable opposition on population from within his own party. He needs support and encouragement to extend his efforts and members of the Australian Greens party need to know that this is an important issue for voters. Write or Email your support (address of the party in your telephone directory or email <[email protected]>).

The Australian Greens now have a passable popula-tion policy but you could suggest improvements. (http://greens.org.au/node/792 )

From Hansard, Tuesday, 16 September 2008Senator BOB BROWN (2.33 pm)—My question with-

out notice is to Senator Evans, representing the Prime Minister.

Does the government have a population policy? Can the minister tell the Senate whether population growth is essential for economic growth, or is that assumption just plain wrong? If population growth is inevitably needed, is

that not an ultimate recipe for planetary breakdown?Senator CHRIS EVANS—I think population policy is

an important issue confronting Australia and we actually need to have a mature debate over the next couple of years about the development of population policy.

—I actually think it is a serious issue. It was discussed at the 2020 conference and raised by a lot of the delegates and it is an issue that the government has been engaging on, particularly in relation to the Treasurer’s role, the housing minister’s role and of course the environment and climate change ministers’ roles. We are working together to try and bring together a broader policy approach in this area. In terms of my own area, on coming to office I found that the previous government set the immigration planning levels on an annual basis. They just picked a figure annually and there was no context to the selection of the figure and no longer term planning. In our first budget this year the cabinet agreed to my bringing forward next year a longer term planning framework for immigration to this country, which is in part an attempt to deal with that broader population question. We think we need a longer planning cycle. We think we need to deal with those broader considerations. At the moment we have a skills shortage in this country as a result of the previous gov-ernment’s failure to invest in education and training and we are looking to build our capacity by training our own people, but in the short term we do have a need for labour and we are trying to address that. One of the things I would point to is the changing demographics of the nation. We know that over the period 2010 to 2020 more people will retire than will join the workforce. If you like, 2010 marks the tipping point in the retirement of the baby boomers, and that will exceed the numbers of young people enter-ing the workforce. That is not a temporary thing; this is a longterm demographic shift. It will not rectify itself. We will have a shrinking native-born labour force to supply a growing economy and an ageing population. So there are big challenges in the demographics area, and part of the solution to that will be an increase in migration and, I think, an increase in the overall population, because we will need more workers to support the population and we will need more workers to provide services to those age-ing as the cohort of those ageing increases. But there are issues about environmental sustainability that need to be taken into account and there are issues about housing that need to be taken into account.

I suppose your question, Senator Brown, implied that somehow we should respond in a negative way. I think the way to respond is to say that we have a climate change problem and we have to address that problem. Whatever the size of the population, we will have a climate change problem. This government is immediately trying to tackle that climate change problem.

We are trying to tackle the problem of water. All of those things need to be taken head-on. Those problems are not fixed by reducing our population or ending immigra-tion to this country. We are serious about housing, we are

http://bob-brown.greensm

ps.org.au/


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serious about climate change and we are serious about the environment, but we face other challenges about the workforce and about our demographics.

What we are trying to do is bring all that together so that the government has a broad view about these chal-lenges and how we respond. I think we are making good progress on that, and certainly in my portfolio we are very much focusing on those broader issues.

Senator BOB BROWN—Mr President, I have a supple-mentary question. I thank the minister for the seriousness with which he answered that question. I return again to core question that I asked: is economic growth predicated upon population growth or is that a myth?

Senator CHRIS EVANS—That is a pretty big question to answer in one minute. What I would say to you is that I think economic growth is vital to Australia’s future. I think that in the medium term we will need a larger popu-lation than we currently have. I think we will have to run an immigration program to deal with the demographic shift and the drop in the workforce. But we also need to tackle those pressing environmental and other problems. The Greens keep raising with me, for instance, the ques-tion of climate change refugees and what we are doing to accommodate them. To accommodate them we would have to increase our immigration program. All these things are clearly linked. We are very much focused on the broader population policy issues, but I think we will need continuing economic growth, and I think we will see a continuing modest increase in our population levels over coming years.

Population PolicySenator BOB BROWN (Tasmania—Leader of the Aus-

tralian Greens) (3.30 pm)—I move: That the Senate take note of the answer given by the Minister for Immigration and Citizenship (Senator Evans) to a question without notice asked by Senator Bob Brown today relating to economic and population growth.

I am grateful to Senator Evans for responding to a question that is very rarely raised in this parliament let alone taken on and answered at some length—and that is the question of the role of population in our future.

The former Treasurer, Peter Costello, said that popu-lation is destiny. I would agree with that, although I think I am coming from a different point of view. We are on a planet in which there are now 6 1/2 thousand million people, whereas when I was a lad it was half that amount. At the change from the 19th century to the 20th century there were 2,000 million people, which is less than a third of today’s population. And we know that by mid-century the population is going to be 9,000 million to 10,000 million people. The world advice is that that simply cannot be sustained. We are now looking at rapidly deteriorating food stores on the planet. We are down to fewer than 50 days of flow-on food availability to meet any great emer-gency, and the number of people facing starvation around the planet right now is in the millions and increasing rapidly, particularly in Africa but also in parts of Asia,

like North Korea. Because energy drives agriculture, and with the onrush of climate change, the very slow growth in productivity compared to population, and peak oil, we will be facing a mammoth, chaotic social outcome of too many people with too few resources on the planet in the lifetime of some of us here and certainly in the lifetime of our children. We are obliged to look at this. That is why I asked the government whether it had a population policy, and I do not believe it does. I do not believe the opposition does. The Greens have one which is very general.

I think it is incumbent upon us all to say what we think about the fundamental supposition that the economy needs a growing population if it is to be sustainable. I think that is a fundamental error but it drives all economic policy-making at government level around the world at the mo-ment. If you take the idea that you must have a growing population to have a healthy economy then the planet will implode because the logic of that is that, if the numbers of humans on the planet keep increasing—and we are the biggest, most marauding group of mammals there has ever been on the planet—to just bring other people up to our level of consumption our current population projections say that we will need not one but three or four planets with the resource base of the earth to sustain human population by mid-century. I am talking about 40 years away. It is simply not sustainable. We as responsible politicians and representatives of the interests of the future of this nation, if not the planet, have to debate this matter.

I believe we have to come to the conclusion that we have to devise economic growth that is not predicated on population growth. If not, we have to state at what level we will stop growing the economy because there are too many people. That is an inevitable outcome of the theory that you must have population growth if you are going to have economic wellbeing. It is a fundamental part of the politi-cal discourse and yet it is missing from public debate. One of my major reasons for raising this question is that I get asked about it all over the country. It does not matter what you are talking about, when you go into any size audience somebody will come up and say, ‘What about population growth?’ So here I am asking that question in the Senate because so many Australians want it debated.

Question agreed to.#


Note: The graph (above) shows how steadily global greenhouse emissions (plotted in gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent per year) have tracked population (plotted in 100 million persons).

Its author John Coulter remarks: ‘Over this time per capita global emissions have actually fallen by around 3.4%. Thus, all other factors remaining unchanged, if population had been stabilized total emissions would have fallen by this amount.

While this broad global comparison hides consider-able variation between countries, it does establish that population growth has been one of the principal drivers of growth in emissions.’#

SPA Delegation visit to the Office of the Minister for Climate Change

Dr Peter Schlesinger, Mr Mark O’Connor and Dr David Denham from SPA met with Ministerial Advisor Ms Kristina Hickey, Assistant Secretary Multilateral Ne-gotiations Branch Mr Robert Owen-Jones and Assistant Mr Andrew Ure in the Dept of Climate Change office, Canberra on September 11, 2008.

The discussion centred around the following 3 propos-als from SPA representatives.

ProposalsThat when the government prepares its White Paper on

the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme it factors in the population factors that determine emissions. And that the Minister should include the population factor in public statements on emissions.

That the Australian Government make a motion onto the agenda of this year’s UNFCCC Posnan meeting of the Kyoto Protocol to include debate on the impact of regional and global population growth on regional and global carbon emissions, and also, move to debate consideration for management of regional and global population growth.

That the government reject the unfair proposal, implicit in the recent Garnaut interim report, that countries which fail to control their population growth, or seek to increase it, should be rewarded down the track with increased emission quotas.

RationaleThe population issue is on the boil. In Victoria John

Brumby has admitted “We are at the limits of [population] growth”. Australia’s population, like Victoria’s, is now growing at 1.6% annually (latest ABS figures) a rate that is almost off the first world scale. The UN is concerned at Asia’s average of 1.1%, and Indonesia’s 1.3%; but Aus-tralia combines the world’s highest per capita greenhouse footprint with the highest growth in ‘capitas’, and the highest per capita immigration, of any large first-world na-tion. Even Canada averages only1.1% population growth in the last 5 years.

Ross Garnaut’s brief was to work out how to reduce emissions without interfering with population and economic growth. Yet even painful per capita cuts of 30% or more are rapidly outrun by population growth. SMH summarized: ‘Australia’s high level of immigration, [Garnaut] says, meant it cannot realistically cut emissions as much as other wealthy nations.’ Nor can Australia argue that this migration merely shifts emissions. Birrell and Healy point out that Australia emits about 26 tonnes of carbon dioxide a head.

A discussion ensued in which Mr Owen-Jones stated that the population issue is already a factor of consideration by the Government and is incorporated into their total sustainability package. We pointed out that the popula-tion factor was not given enough weight, and is not really factored into management protocols as a major variable with it’s profound multiplier effect.

Mr Owen-Jones discussed the structure of the Kyoto Protocol, and that the main thrust of action in the multi-lateral agreement revolved around the key determinants: Adaptation and Mitigation.

The meeting was an attempt to present what we deem to be an essential but under-weighted causal factor in the carbon emission/climate change Australian and global circumstance. We discussed the issue with the knowledge that the participants were key figures close to the Minister of Climate Change, and that our message would be relayed to the Minister, with the hope of drawing a ministerial response.#


Letters

On July 28th 2008 an article entitled Premier John Brumby warns of dangers in growing too fast appeared in the Melbourne Herald Sun about Premier John Brumby's concerns about the stresses of population growth on trans-port and health systems. He was quoted as saying "I think we are at the limits of growth."

On the strength of this on July 29th I, as President of the Victorian Branch of Sustainable Population Australia sent a letter stating the Aims and Objectives of SPA and naming our patrons with brief resumes of each requesting a meeting with the Premier ,

The following reply from Mr. Brumby's chief of staff was dated and post marked September 10th.

“Thank you for your letter to the Premier of 29 July 2008 regarding Victorian population growth. I am re-sponding on his behalf.

Immigration has been an important part of Victoria's past and will continue to play a critical role in the State's future. It is one of Victoria's key strengths and gives us a distinct advantage socially, culturally and economically.

The Government continues to emphasise the impor-tance of migration, multiculturalism and strong population growth in Victoria. This contributes to our diversity and flexible skills base giving us an economy that is more in-novative and competitive.

In this context, the Victorian Government is comfort-able with the current population growth rate of 1.6 per annum.

Thank you again for your letter to the Premier.Yours SincerelyDan O'BrienChief of Staff #

John Brumby’s reply to Jill Quirk (or what the Premier of Victoria really thinks of

the Population issue).

Migrant surge at record levelsCarol Nader and Jason Dowling The Brisbane

Times, September 25, 2008

THE push to lure skilled workers to Australia and the increase in foreign students have raised migration into the country to a record high.

Australian Bureau of Statistics figures reveal that net overseas migration to Australia boosted the population by almost 200,000 in the year to March, outstripping births in contributing to population growth.

And with the Federal Government adding to the migra-tion intake in this year's budget, demographers predict the numbers will swell.

The population of Australia reached 21.3 million at the end of March, and 59% of that growth was due to net overseas migration — that is, the difference between overseas arrivals and departures.

Peter McDonald, head of demographics at the Aus-tralian National University, said much of the rise was due to long-term temporary migration. This mainly comprises foreign students, temporary skilled workers who are here on 457 visas, and people on working holidays.

Monash University demographer Bob Birrell said migration was contributing more to population growth than births, and the trend was yet to peak.

"There's also a significant delay in the return of those temporary migrants," he said. "We're getting a surge of people coming here, but it takes some time before they finish their stay and return home."

Dr Birrell said the increasing population was adding pressure to the housing market, which was already under strain because of a reduction in the construction of units and houses. It was also increasing demand for hospital services and public transport and adding cars on roads.

A spokesman for Immigration and Citizenship Min-ister Chris Evans said the figures reflected the migration program levels set by the previous government.

He said this also reflected the strong growth in the number of foreign students and temporary skilled mi-grant workers coming to Australia. In 2007-08, more than 278,000 student visas and 110,570 457 visas were granted. Acting state Treasurer Tim Holding said Victoria had recorded its highest population growth in 37 years. This year's budget included $4.4 billion in new infrastructure investment, including for hospitals, schools and roads.#

Not sure what to do with your ‘Back Copies’ of the SPA Newsletter after

you have read them?Why don’t you take them along to your local Doctor’s, Dentist’s, Podiatrist’s Surgery and drop them among the ‘New Ideas’ in the waiting room? Spread the word!#


Overloading Australia now being printed

The long awaited book by Mark O’Connor and William Lines is now being printed and should be available by the end of October. The publisher is Envirobook, Canterbury NSW and the price is likely to be around $20.

Both authors are long standing members of SPA. Mark O’Connor is a past Vice President of this organization. Bill Lines is a well known author, with ‘Patriots’ probably being his work most familiar to SPA members. Mark, a

well known poet, Australia’s Olympic poet, is the author of “This Tired Brown Land’. This book now out of print is used as a ready reference on Australia’s population by many of our members. “Overloading Australia will be just as “valuable.

With Christmas not far away the book should be on every member’s gift list and be distributed widely to our Parliamentarians and through our community.

The 22 chapters (around 200 pages) include “The issues”, An overload of people, What over-population does, Overloaded Earth, Pyramid selling Australia, Fooling people, fooling nature, Immigration and the New Class, How green groups distort the population debate and A way ahead , or, why we should waste water.#

Migration of the Home Spun Kind!‘Heads-up’ provided by Ilan Goldman, SPA Victoria

through Popforum.There are almost a million Australians living and

working permanently overseas (http://ceda.com.au/public/publications/info_paper/ip_80.html ) and another 250,000-300,000 temporary emigrants at any given time. In the current meltdown of the overseas financial markets and the boom conditions in parts of Australia, it’s to be expected that some will be heading home and looking for work in Australia.

It is hoped that someone in Government is keeping

an eye on this, as the numbers of expats. being forced to return to Australia because of tight job markets overseas is starting to climb.

Jonathon Dart writing in WAToday.com.au highlights what is an increasingly growing phenomenon; our young Australians being forced out of the overseas job market and returning home. He reports that the ‘finance recruit-ment company “Michael Page” registered a 27% rise in the number of Australian white-collar expatriates looking to return home for work in August compared to the same month last year’ and a number of the banking giants such as Merrill Lynch and Barclays have frozen recruitment. The larger financial service companies such as Price Water-house Coopers, KPMG and Ernst & Young are reported to be cutting jobs with about 33% of companies in this sector expecting more redundacies before years end.(http://business.watoday.com.au/business/frozenout-expats-return-to-australia-for-jobs-20080928-4ppl.html)#

India’s population to reach 1.5 billion by 2025

India’s population is expected to to reach 1.5 billion by 2025 and to stabilise at 1.7 billion by 2060 said US Consul-General Henry Jardine while speaking at the Disas-ter Preparedness seminar. His projections were based on information provided by United Nations Economic and So-cial Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). About half the population will live in urban centres and cities with high densities suggesting that any disaster striking these areas will have a “massive human impact”. India already has at least four cities with at least 10 million people and over 35 cities of over 1 million people.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Indias_population_to_be_15_bn_by_2025/articleshow/2193372.cms#

Panel of Experts to Advise Minister on 457 Changes.

The creation of a Skilled Migration Consultative Panel to advise the Minister of Immigration and Citizenship on improving the Temporary Skilled migration program (457 visas) was announced in early July.

The panel will comprise representatives from NSW, Victoria, Queensland and WA State Governments, the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Australian Industry Group, Business Council of Australia, Council of Trades Unions and the Minerals Council of Australia.The terms of reference include:

Provide advice on the skilled Migration program,• Advise Barbara Deegan, IR Commissioner review-• ing the 457 Visa Program,Provide feedback on reform proposals for the 457 • program and the implications for the wider commu-nity. #


The Albedo Mirror? Can it help?John Weaver

How many times have you driven through the new and emerging suburbs (and for that matter the older suburbs) of your city and shaken your head in wonder at the number of dark roofs your neighbours have or are installing? It hap-pens all the time here in Perth where developers and home owners seem to prefer black roofs and the older suburbs are blessed with predominantly red tiled roofs. Often the newer houses will also have small or non-existent eaves in the style of Mediterranean building practice bathing the dark brick walls in sun for most of the day. Of course, the casual observer will remark, this is not -important as the houses are well insulated and air conditioned so the interior is maintained at an even and pleasant temperature for the householder.

But in a world where we are trying to reduce the amount of carbon emissions relying on air conditioning for instance, is madness. The Los Angeles Times (http://www.latimes.com/news/science/environment/la-na-warming26-2008sep26.0.193443.print.story) has reported that scientists have calculated that the GHG emissions for 2006/07, and instead of falling, rose 3%, putting the world on course for a ëworst case scenario thatís ìscaryî to contemplateí. The temperature rise of between 1.8 and 5.3 degrees C would create massive Greenland ice melting. It is not just the resulting rise in sea levels that is a concern but the loss of the icy reflective surface allows more solar energy to be absorbed. This causes more warming, more ab-sorption and an accelerating warming process. White roofs of course increase reflection of solar energy and reduce warming.

So, what can we do about it? A study by Hashem Ak-

bari et al. from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory suggests that if we were to whiten the roofs of all buildings in the worldís 100 biggest cities and use more reflective pavement we may be able to reverse this trend. Akbari and his fellow researchers calculated that replacing the dark roof on the average size US home with white material would offset 10 metric tons of Greenhouse gases.

The LA Times when reporting the study states that globally, ìroofs account for 25% of the surface of most cities, and pavement accounts for about 35%. If all were switched to reflective material in 100 major urban areas, it would offset 44 gigatonnes of greenhouse gases. That ís more than all the countries on Earth emit in a single year or ten years of emissions growth, even without slash-

ing industrial pollution. (http://www.latimes.com/news/sci-ence/environment/la-me-roofs10-2008sep10.0.4201474.print.story).

So what about it? Can we convince our local councils to change zoning restrictions on white roofs and to include reflective material in our pavements and roads? Akbari estimates that the changing albedo effect of cooling roofs alone worldwide would benefit communities by at least $600 billion with several times that amount accruing from energy savings. (For a discussion of the modelling and calcula-tions see http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/events/2008_confer-ence/presentations/2008-09-09/Hashem_Akbari.pdf#

The Editor’s “Good News Commendation”

With today’s en-vironmental prob-lems, it is easy to be-come overpowered by doom and gloom. In the midst of this mind numbing mo-rass are individual developments, small

projects perhaps but contributors to the very large changes required to ease the impact of today’s population.

Concrete is a huge contributor to green house gas emis-sions due to its cement component. Production of ordinary cement (Ordinary Portland Cement or OPC) involves mixing calcite (a source of calcium) with silicon at 1400 degrees centigrade. The huge energy requirement of this process generates about 0.4 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of cement and a further 0.6 tonnes comes from decomposi-tion of calcite. Making cement generates about 1 tonne of CO2 per tonne of cement.

A new product to replace OPC called E-crete reduces emissions by 80%. It was developed by a team led by Pro-fessor Jannie van Deventer at the Department of Chemical Engineering , Melbourne University, in 1995. By Febru-ary, 2008 Prof. van Deventer had developed the process to industrial scale and the world’s first 100% geopolymer concrete plant had its first sales in Melbourne.

E-crete replaces calcium with a (http://www.latimes.com./newes/science/environment/la-na-warming26-2008-sep26.0.193443.print.story) luminium, using alumino silicate from industrial by-products such as ash from coal burning and from iron slag. There is a double saving as there is no CO2 release and the processing is not as energy intensive. Cement production by the OPC process accounts for 5 to 8% of CO2, making it the third highest contributor to global greenhouse production. Concrete use accounts for 40 to 60% of emissions in building houses and freeways according to Peter Duxson, form the parent company Deobond Pty., Ltd.

The product earns the Editors Good News commenda-tion for our September Issue.


Victorian Branch Report

State Branch ReportsWest Australian Branch Report

Victoria continues to experience very high population growth (1.6% p.a.) with con-

comitant stresses on services such as public transport and roads.

Even Premier Brumby at the end of July was reported to express misgivings about the rate of population increase -at least to say that we were "at the limits of growth". Seeing this as opportune The Victorian branch of SPA requested a meeting with Mr Brumby but this was refused.

On August 11th Jill Quirk and Peter Schlesinger attended a meeting on Climate Change hosted by The Greens with guest speakers Brian Walters S.C. and Greens Senator Bob Brown. We met Bob Brown afterwards and were able to broach the subject of population and climate change with respect to Greens policy and focus.

Jill Quirk and SPA member Graham Parton had complementary letters published in "The Age" on 26th August in response to a report that the Leader of the Opposition in the Victoria Mr. Ted Baillieu had quashed population concerns from the Sandringham branch of his party. (Congratulations to Graham on a series of excellent published population related letters.)

In early September, Victorian committee member Peter Schlesinger (with 2 Canberra locals ) met Water and Climate Change Minister Penny Wong's advisor to discuss population with regard to climate change.

Peter Schlesinger with the Victorian branch have worked with national president John Coulter in an ongoing attempt to get population on the UNFCCC Kyoto Protocol meeting agenda in Poland later this year .

ABS reports of population projections in early Septem-ber showed that by 2056 Melbourne could have a popula-tion of nearly 8 million and 9.8 million in Victoria. Sheila Newman had a pithy letter in response to this published in "The Age."

The population picture in Victoria certainly looks bleak.

The Victorian branch, intends to promote SPA at the Sustainable Living Festival in mid February 2009 for which we are now working on a banner. The SLF presence involves manning a stall for 3 days. We need volunteers. Please contact Jill Quirk on 04097429 or [email protected] if you can offer a morning or afternoon. Expres-sions of interest at this stage will help us to plan. #

Our November meeting will see the return of Professor Harry Recher, probably our most popular and frequently used speaker at WA

meetings. Since his retirement in 2006 to live in NSW, we have not had the opportunity to invite him again. One third of membership fees does not provide a budget that allows bringing speakers from interstate. As the Foundation Professor of Environmental Management at Edith Cowan University, Harry’s lectures often had students from other campuses attending.

Harry’s lectures were always stimulating and challenging. This time his talk is titled “Challenges for the environment movement” so invite your conservation and environment friends along, Issue your invitations now for November 23rd, 2pm, Lotteries House, Dehli St, W Perth.

Our September meeting presented both a challenge and a great opportunity. Dr Alexander Watson described the opportunity to preserve the Great Western Woodlands, now the largest temperate woodland in near pristine condition left on earth. Alexander described the conservation and historical value of the area and the threats such as fire, weeds, wild dogs etc that will be challenges to its survival.

The WA State election produced some interesting issues and results. Thanks to Greens party members Dee Margetts and Robin Chapple for publicizing the facts that WA is the recipient of only 17% of royalties that are reported to flow into the State. With the huge stream of immigrants, both long and short term, is it any wonder that every service and facility seems so vastly overloaded? On top of all the hospital problems, some GPs are now refusing to take more patients.#

SPA Membership NumbersMembership as at the end of August 2008 is as fol-lows. National 38 Canberra 136 N-QLD 45 NSW 323 SA 68 SE-QLD 101 TAS 22 VIC 170 WA 161 Total 1,064Now is as good a time as any to sign up your col-leagues and friends to SPA and help the organisa-tion make a difference, Every member helps!The total at the 31st of July was 1,016, so there have been 48 new members register.#


The ACT branch issued a press release for World Population Day calling for a cap

on Canberra’s population of 350,000 (10,000 more than present). Jenny Goldie did five radio interviews and one WIN TV News interview. The reporting was mostly sympathetic. The ABC, however, got the Chamber of Commerce to reply and they were still running their apoplectic reaction to the concept the next day. The branch committee considered a Cap Canberra Campaign at its subsequent meeting but shelved the idea for the moment because a new political group running for the ACT election has the acronym CAP. Coincidentally, CAP has an excellent population policy.

The AGM was held in June with the same committee re-elected. Then followed a public meeting with Bill Lines, co-author with Mark O’Connor of the forthcoming book ‘Overloading Australia’. We look forward to its publication in October.

A number of members have contributed to the Canberra Times letters page, notably branch secretary Giff Jones in a recent Saturday edition with a large headline: “Let’s look for ways around the ‘got to have growth’ path”. Bryan Furnass keeps getting published in the Guardian Weekly (along with Val Yule from Victoria). Bryan helped run a high profile Climate Change conference at ANU in June that included a brilliant paper by David Denham on population and climate change. David was the speaker at the September SPA quarterly meeting and was well received. Two former politicians - Greg Cornwell from the ACT and Barry Cohen, Minister for Environment in the Hawke Government - attended and participated in discussion. #

ACT Branch ReportState Branch Reports (Continued)

New South Wales Branch Report

2008 NSW Branch AGM will be held

2.00 PM on Saturday 18 October at the Sydney Mechanics' School of Arts,

280 Pitt Street, Sydney.

Members are encouraged to nominate for positions on the Committee.

Present branch President Gordon Hocking is not seek-ing re-election.

Following the AGM, and refreshments, there will be a series of short talks:

Graham Wood and Kris Spike will each talk about important messages from the March SPA Conference

(Dr John Coulter has collected the overhead slides used by Conference Speakers, and some of these will be screened);

David Williams will address the divide between politicians' and constituents' views on population and environment; and

Ralph Bennett will speak about economics and sus-tainability.

Diary Notes:Conservation Expo Hosted by Blue Mountains 1. Conservation Society and the National Trust.All day Saturday, October 25, 2008, Everglades Gardens at Leura in the Blue Mountains.Walk Against Warming Hosted by Nature Conser-2. vation Council of NSW, will be held on November 15. Thousands of Australians will walk on the day, giving an excellent opportunity for SPA members to talk to others about population and environment issues.

<http://nccnsw.org.au/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2508&Itemid=809> #

The Tasmanian Branch has enjoyed a successful period. In August Branch President, Tom Nilsson issued a media release calling for a

population cap of 500,000 for Tasmania. The release noted that Tasmania’s population is approximately 498,000, and will reach 500,000 in the very near future. It pointed out that the supposed causal relationship between population and economic growth is a fallacy, and highlighted the limitations on population growth in Tasmania, such as a finite water supply, inadequate infrastructure and lack of job-providing industries. The question was raised, if we keep increasing our population, will we need to keep on building more pulp mills to provide jobs for the extra people?

The media release resulted in the greatest amount of media publicity since the Branch’s formation in 2004, including articles in The Mercury and The Advocate and interviews with Southern Cross Television (which

Tasmanian Branch Report

made it to the 6 pm Sunday news), HO FM and ABC Local Radio (Northern Tasmania). In response there was a critical editorial in The Advocate and a critical opinion article by Bruce Felmingham (an academic and economics commentator) in the Sunday Tasmanian. There were several letters published in The Mercury/Sunday Tasmanian, including two by Tom Nilsson.

Following on from this Tom and Branch Secretary, Rosemary Scott had a 45-minute meeting with the Leader of the Australian Greens, Senator Bob Brown. The Senator’s attitude towards the population issue was encouraging, and subsequently he made some positive statements in Parliament.

The Tasmanian Branch will hold its Annual General Meeting on Monday, 17 November at 6 pm, at 11 Jennings Street, New Town. For more information phone Tom Nilsson on 0410211155#.


DisclaimerWhile every effort has been taken to ensure

the reliability of the information contained in this Newsletter the opinions expressed are those of the various authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of either SPA or the Editors.#

Australian Demographic Statistics: for the Year from Mar 31 2007 to Mar 31 2008.

Release date 24th September 2008.Australia’s Resident Population 21,282,600• Population increase for the year 336,800• Rate of Increase 1.6% • (World average increase : 1.2%)Net Overseas Migration 199,100 • (immigrants – emigrants = 59% of total increase: 1,100 arrivals 620 departures/day)Natural Increase 137,700• (Births – deaths = 41% of total increase)

By State or TerritoryResident Population Growth Rates

NSW 6,947,000 1.1%• VIC 5,274,400 1.7%• QLD 4,228,000 2.2%• SA 1,598,000 1.1%• WA 2,149,000 2.6%• TAS 497,300 0.9%• NT 218,400 2.2%• ACT 342,700 1.4%•

From Australian Demographic Statistics, (Australian Bureau of Statistics Cat No. 3101.0)

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/3101.0?OpenDocument#

ABOUT SPAThe SPA Newsletter is mailed bi-monthly to members of Sustainable Population Australia Inc. Membership is open to all who agree with SPA’s aims and objectives. For further information, please contact the SPA National Office or your nearest SPA Branch.All membership applications, renewals and Newsletter contributions should be sent to the National Office.

Newsletter Editors: John & Paddy Weaver [email protected] Phone (08)9386 1890.

SPA NATIONAL OFFICE BEARERSPresident: Dr John Coulter Ph (08) 83882153 president@population.

org.auVice President: Dr Alan Jones Ph (02) 9982 9720

[email protected]: Jenny Goldie Phone and Fax (02) 6235

5488 [email protected]: Tomas Nilsson, Ph (03) 6225 4678

[email protected] SUSTAINABLE POPULATION FUND

TRUSTEESDr. Graham ChittleboroughMr. Ross Kingsland A.M.Dr. Bill Sorby

SPA NATIONAL OFFICEAdministrative Officer: Sarah ScritchleyPostal address: PO Box 3851 WESTON CREEK

ACT 2611Office: South West Wing, Weston Creek Public

School, Weston, ACT 2611Phone: (02) 6288 6810 Fax: (02) 6288 7195Email: [email protected]: http://www.population.org.au

REGIONAL BRANCHESNSW: President: Gordon Hocking. Ph (02) 9528

6091 PO Box 3070 DURAL NSW 2158, [email protected]

WA: President: Dr Harry Cohen A,M,. Ph (08) 93392952, PO Box 1397 SUBIACO WA 6904, [email protected]

VIC: President: Jill Quirk Ph (03) 95097429, PO Box 1173 FRANKSTON VIC 3199, [email protected]

S-E QLD: President: Simon Baltais Ph (07) 5530 6600, Fax (07) 5530 7795, PO Box 199 MUDGEERABA QLD 4213, seqld@ population.org.au.

NTH QLD: President: Dr David Kault Ph (07) 4721 0487 (ah), 18 Stagpole St. West End Townsville, QLD 4810. [email protected]

TASMANIA: President: Tomas Nilsson Ph (03) 6225 4678, 3/252 Churchill Av SANDY BAY TAS 7005, [email protected]

SA: President: Peter Martin Ph (08) 8178 0287, 16 Garnet Ave, Blackwood, SA 5051, [email protected].

ACT: President: Jenny Goldie Phone and Fax (02) 6235 5488 Baroona Rd Michelago 2620, [email protected] #

The Back Page

ABS Population ClockWorld Population projected to 29 September, 2008 by

the US Bureau of Census: 6,726,721,572

Australia’s resident population on the 29 September, 2008 is projected to be:

21,444,579This projection is based on the estimated resident

population at 31 March 2008 and assumes growth since then of:1 birth every 1 mins 51 secs1 death every 3 min 48 secs1 net international migrant every 2 min 55sAustralia’s overall population increase is one

additional person every 1 mins 37 secs. These assumptions are consistent with those used for Series B in Population Projections, Australia, 2006 to 2101 (cat. no. 3222.0).#

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