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Newsletter Contents:

Letter from the President, Terje Aven

Photos from the 2017 SRA Annual Meeting

Submit your abstracts for the Fifth World Congress on Risk

Upcoming SRA Webinars

Register for the 2018 SRA Asia Conference

Register for the 2018 Benelux Chapter Meeting

OHSSG Congratulates their 2017 Best Abstract Winner

ERASG visited the US Botanic Garden (recap & photos)

Recap of the OHSSG 2017 Business Meeting

Interested in having an event co-sponsored by SRA?

Are you a regular contributor to a blog or online publication? We want to hear from you!

Greetings to all Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) members and all others who have an interest inrisk analysis, and many thanks to those who attended the 2017 SRA Annual Meeting in Arlington! It is with great honour that I have taken on the position of President of SRA. I will do my best toserve SRA and the field and science of risk analysis. I am highly motivated and will follow up thegreat work done by the previous presidents, the SRA Council and other SRA officers andmembers, to further develop SRA as an international organisation. A main task for me will be tolead the work on developing an SRA strategic plan. Strategic planning has been on the SRACouncil agenda since its start and conducted quite extensively through the years. However,systematic strategic planning has not been conducted. Today, SRA encompasses a large number ofactivities, involving many people and units from different scientific domains and applications, aswell as regions. This makes it difficult to manage the organisation and set directions andpriorities. Simplified, a strategic plan expresses where we are heading and how we will get there.

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It will help set direction and priorities, drive alignment, support the decision-making, andimprove the communication of the ‘SRA message’. It is highly relevant that we considerfundamental changes and improvements, in view of the significantly reduced membershipnumbers we have experienced in recent years. Measures are required. In particular, we need toreach out to more students and young professionals. It is my strong belief that, for its outreach and leverage to be increased, risk analysis needs to befurther developed as a field and science. When risk analysis is addressed in relation to, forexample climate change issues, engineering problems and occupational safety, the science of riskanalysis should be able to deliver authoritative guidance on how to conduct risk knowledgegeneration and treat the risk problem. We are not there yet. There is an urgent need for suchguidance, expressing what good principles and approaches are in risk analysis. We have alreadymade some contributions. I am proud of the new SRA glossary we have developed and hope youfind it useful in your work. See also discussion papers on fundamentals and key principles of riskanalysis at www.sra.org/resources. Risk analysis professionals and users of risk analysis need to be guided by the best people, andSRA can and should play a leading role. The current situation strongly hampers the furtherdevelopment of risk analysis, for example by reducing the possibilities of obtaining researchfunding and of young scholars having opportunities to pursue a career in risk analysis. Whyshould statistics, for example, have thousands of academic positions in our universities, while riskanalysis has hardly any? This does not make sense. It represents a serious problem and we need todo something about it. For me, the long-term vision is for risk analysis to be broadly recognized asa distinct science – only then can risk analysis really grow and have societal impacts. I look forward to working with President-elect Katherine McComas, past President MargaretMacDonell and the entire Council. I am confident that, through hard work and focus, importantresults can be obtained. At the same time, I am humble in relation to this job, knowing that thereare many challenges and that I can do little without your strong backing. Please contact me if youhave ideas or suggestions on how risk analysis and SRA can be further developed.

Highlights of the 2017 SRA Annual MeetingParticipants at the Annual Meeting differ in many ways, and what John considers a highlight isnot necessarily one for Ruth. For many of you, your own presentation and related discussion isthe peak event. From the perspective of the organiser, I would like to draw attention to somefacts:

Outstanding attendance: About 800 participants registered this year, one of the highestever attendances.International attendees: Close to 200 came from outside the USA, from about 40 countriesfrom all reaches of the globe.Global leaders: Among the distinguished attendees were Yasunobu Maeda, President ofSRA Japan; Rosa María Flores Serrano, President of SRA Latin America; Sandra Seno-Alday, President of SRA Australia and New Zealand; Seda Kundak, President of SRAEurope; Marja Ylönen, President of SRA-Nordic, and James H. Lambert, Mary Gulumian,Igor Linkov, Patricia Nance and Sasa Jovanovic, the co-chairs of the upcoming Fifth WorldCongress on Risk.Abstracts submitted: More than 550; 110 sessions, 22 roundtables. A special track ofroundtables with topics of broad interest. A roundtable with representatives of the SRAregional organizations, and a roundtable with representatives from the various SpecialtyGroups.Workshops: 13 continuing education workshops were held on the Sunday preceding theannual meeting and Thursday – also new ones, related to fundamental issues of risk

analysis. Plenary panels with discussion related to the theme of the conference: Risk Analysis: theprofession, the practitioners, the research. See below for some comments. Images of Risk Competition, with Seth Guikema and Roger Flage as the winners. Plenary lunch events with awards and talks addressing, among other topics, the challengeof teaching children about risk and risk analysis. Awardees: Chauncey Starr – RobynWilson; Distinguished Achievement – Akihiro Tokai; Distinguished Educator – ScottFerson; Distinguished Lecturer – Seda Kundak; Outstanding Service – Kuen-Yu Wu;Outstanding Practitioner – Cristina McLaughlin; and Fellow: Rob Goble, Frank Hearl andTrina von Stackelberg.A poster reception with great atmosphere and food.A board with creative and cool statements on why we love being risk analysts.A raffle at the t-shirt giveaway, with Divinia Ries from Michigan, USA, winning a trip toNorway.

Risk analysis: An obsolete profession? This was an interesting Monday morning panel discussion, with Pamela Williams, MichaelDourson, Seth Guikema, Ragnar Löfstedt, Kimberly Thompson and Terje Aven. There was broadagreement that risk analysis is not an obsolete profession but also that we face some seriousproblems; see slides of talks at http://sra.org/2017-annual-meeting. I, personally, was happy tosee that a large proportion of the audience – probably more than 50% – considered their mainfield and science as risk analysis and also viewed risk analysis as a distinct science. This gives mehope that it may be possible to lift risk analysis to a new and higher level of scientific quality andsocietal impact.

Evidence and knowledge-based decision-making in a risk analysis setting: Desired reality ormisconception? On Tuesday morning, the theme of the plenary panel was evidence-based decision-making andrisk analysis: a hot topic which created an energetic discussion among the panelists, Joe Árvai,Nancy Beck, Frederic Bouder and Lisa A. Robinson, and the audience – with Sally M. Kane asmoderator and Terje Aven introducing the theme. See slides of talks at http://sra.org/2017-annual-meeting. As risk analysts, we are aware that evidence is related to not only facts but alsobeliefs and concerns that need to be taken into account in risk management and regulation. Weare also aware that, as a basis for decision-making, value judgements are equally important, as isevidence in the form of data, information and justified beliefs. Science in general is aboutbalancing ‘confidence’ (for example expressing that smoking is dangerous and climate change ismainly man-made) and ‘humbleness’ (reflecting that there are uncertainties), and risk analysis iscritical for finding this balance and understanding the ‘humbleness’ part and seeing the strengthsand limitations of the ‘confidence’ part. The panelists demonstrated examples of how this balanceis obtained in different settings and what the challenges are in relation to ensuring the balance. Inmy view, some of the problems we face today concerning the role of science in society, with‘alternative facts’ and lack of authority, can be traced back to the ‘humbleness’: this part has notbeen given the scientific attention it deserves. The result is often poor science. By strengtheningrisk analysis, we thus also strengthen other sciences. Many other topics were addressed at the Annual Meeting. Here are some press release headings,showing the diversity of themes at the meeting:

Risk Analysis and Emergency Management Vital to Cultural PreservationThe Society for Risk Analysis Presents New Research on Who Really Benefits from EnergyEfficient ManufacturingNew Studies Present Models and Strategies for Creating a More Resilient Power SystemThe Society for Risk Analysis Presents Research Solidifying the Need for Reformed ClimatePolicies

Society for Risk Analysis Presents New Research Examining Health Risks of VapingAging Water Systems Nationwide Pose Threats to HealthSociety for Risk Analysis to Discuss Issues Paramount to the Foundation of the Science ofRisk Analysis

Many people are involved in the organisation of the Annual Meeting; see the Program Committeeoverview in the annual program. I would like to thank all members of the Committee, in particularco-chair Stanley Levinson, Jennifer Rosenberg and Jill Drupa at the Secretariat, Big Voice, and allSpecialty Group Chairs and representatives. You all did a great job and made this meeting anunforgettable event.

Terje Aven

The Society for Risk Analysis invites your abstracts for presentations at the Fifth

World Congress on Risk in Cape Town, South Africa, May 6-8, 2019.

The Fifth World Congress on Risk will focus on “Development and Resilience” and aims to

stimulate dialogue and education on risk issues of worldwide interest. SRA welcomes

contributions on any topic related to risk assessment, risk characterization, risk perception, risk

communication, risk management, risk governance, and policy relating to risk, in the context of

risks of concern to individuals, to public and private sector organizations, and to society at a local,

regional, national, or global level.

SRA is particularly interested in receiving submissions from outstanding researchers doing work

in risk analysis from Africa, Asia, Oceania, Middle East or Latin America and will aim to support

their travel to present at the World Congress. The organizing committee welcomes proposals for a

variety of session formats: poster-platform presentation, oral presentation and symposium

presentation.

Click here for complete submission guidelines and to submit your abstract.

Register for the 2018 SRA Asia ConferenceMarch 13-14, 2018 at Kansai University, Osaka, Japan

The theme of the conference is "Communication and collaboration in diversity of researches in East

Asia." We have variety of risk issues to analyze: natural disasters, climate change, accidents by

science and technology, chemicals, radiation, EMF (electromagnetic field), food safety, insurance,

risk administration of governance and business, war, terrorism, consensus formation, and so on.

The regional SRAs in Asia each have their specialty. Natural disaster research in China, toxicology

in Korea, public health in Taiwan, and risk communication in Japan. The diversity in the regional

SRAs in Asia will be a trigger of our success, and we sincerely welcome all of you to the SRA Asia

Conference 2018.

Register here.

Register for the 2018 Benelux Chapter MeetingMarch 26, 2018 in Mol, Belgium

This conference provides a forum for exchanges between experts (researchers, students, professionals) on

the changing nature of risk analysis, management, and policy in the face of societal shifts (e.g.

institutional, technological, environmental). Theoretical, methodological and empirical perspectives on

these topics will be presented and debated. During this event, the following topics will be treated:

The changing nature of risk analysis, policy, and management in the face of societal shifts.

Risk research and understanding of risk analysis techniques and approaches.

Research and improving our understanding, and the practical application, of risk analysis and risk

management.

Issues common to Benelux countries in the field of risk research.

Register here before March 2, 2018. Attendance is free of charge but limited to 100 participants.

Save the Date!Upcoming Webinars

An additional email will be sent to all members

with a registration link

New Webinar Series: CoreSubjects of Risk Analysis

February 7 at 11am ET: Introduction &Overview: Fundamentals of Risk Analysis

with Terje AvenApril 9 at 10am ET: Risk Assessment

with Seth GuikemaComing in 2018:

Risk Perception & Communication with

Katherine McComas

Risk Management & Governance with Frederic

Bouder and Terje Aven

Solving Real Risk Problems & Issues with

Willy Røed

Risk, Causation and Decision with Tony Cox

Selected Topics in Risk Analysis with Ortwin

Renn

If you or your specialty group has an ideafor a webinar or is interested in hosting,please contact Scott Dotson. All of our

past webinars are available here for

The OHSSG congratulates Aubrey

Langeland, Ph.D. candidate at the

University of Michigan, on receiving the

2017 SC Award for Best Abstract. Her

winning abstract was entitled "Evaluation

of Risk of Occupational Injuries and

Hearing Loss Among Informal Electronic

Waste Recyclers."

Are you a member of another

organization that could benefit from

co-sponsoring an event with SRA?

For more information, and to apply for co-sponsorship, click here.

members.

2018 SRA Council

Are you a regular contributor to an online publication or blog?We want to help share your content! If you contribute to a publication, please email

Melanie Preve and we'll be sure to share your pieces on SRA's social media channels.

ERASG Visits the U.S. Botanic Garden

About 20 SRA members met up at the U.S. Botanic Garden in D.C. on the Sunday before the Annual

Meeting in December 2017 (Arlington, VA). The Ecological Risk Assessment Specialty Group (ERASG)

organized the trip, led by Amy Rosenstein, secretary, and supported by ERASG Chair Amanda Bailey and

Treasurer Diane Henshel. Dr. Susan Pell, the director of Science and Public Programming, welcomed our

group with a history of the establishment of the Botanic Garden, a description of the Garden's highlights,

and a summary of the Garden's scientific research and goals.

During the late 18th century, George Washington, Thomas Jefferson and James Madison shared the

dream of a national Botanic Garden and were instrumental in establishing one on the National Mall in

1820. The current site of the U.S. Botanic Garden has been in continuous operation since 1850 and has

been administered by the Architect of the Capitol since 1934, which means that Congress directly funds it.

Original collections were from the United States Exploring Expedition to the South Seas (the Wilkes

Expedition), which brought a collection of living plants from around the globe to Washington, D.C. Only a

very small portion of the plants that are maintained and raised by the Garden are on display at any one

time. A large research/storage facility called the Production Facility, which includes greenhouses of

85,000 square feet divided into 34 greenhouse bays and 17 environmental zones, is in southwest D.C., and

is usually open to the public only once a year (next open house is March 10, more information here).

The Garden's primary goals are to maintain a wide range of botanical species, to ensure conservation of

rare and endangered plant species from around the world, and to promote botanical knowledge. The

Christmas displays were magnificent, including a display of a huge variety of poinsettias, sculptures of

famous D.C. landmarks constructed of botanical materials, and, of course, model trains.

Top: Botanic Model of the U.S. Capitol; Bottom L: Dr. Pell addressing the ERASG; Bottom R: Botanic Model of the LincolnMemorial

The Occupational Health and Safety Specialty Group Business Meeting Recap

December 11, 2017

The new OHSSG officers are: President Scott Dotson, President Elect Mary O’Reilly, & Secretary Treasurer

Charles Redinger

The outgoing Chair, Tee Guidotti, and founder, Frank Hearl, emphasized to the new officers the need to

move quickly after the Annual Meeting due to SRA's annual cycle. It is important to launch any new

activities quickly after the holidays and to do them in the spring. The second half of the year is almost

entirely taken up with the Annual Meeting and little else gets done. As a consequence, this group really has

a window of only about 5 months to carry out a new initiative.

Frank Hearl completed the OHSSG's self-assessment, as requested by SRA President Terje Aven and

shared the report with the council. It summarized the state of the SG and intentions to increase activity

but also noted practical limitations in areas that figured prominently in OHSSG plans, such as webinar

development and scheduling.

A key accomplishment of the OHSSG this year was a very successful webinar presented on April 26, 2017,

on “Mental modeling for OH&S: Understanding influences on electricians’ occupational safety decisions,”

presented by Sarah Thorne (Decision Partners), Joel Moody (Electrical Safety Authority, ESA) and Laurel

Austin (Ivey Business School of Western University and Decision Partners). We learned a lot from putting

on this webinar and it will be a prototype for future events. The topic was chosen because it was cross-

cutting with the interests of other SGs and members outside of OH&S.

The members present discussed that for our SG to be successful within SRA, it is important that OHSSG

be appreciated as having value to the practicing risk science community outside of occupational health and

safety and that we emphasize the deep policy issues and commonalities of occupational health risk

management with other fields and seek co-sponsorships with other SGs rather than focusing on technical

details and what makes occupational health unique.

The rest of the meeting was given over to planning for OHSSG sessions at the 2018 SRA Annual Meeting

in New Orleans.

Tee Guidotti, Former Chair

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