new zealand 2050
DESCRIPTION
A description of the key drivers that will shape the future of New Zealand in 2050 as part of the www.tourism2050.com projectTRANSCRIPT
1
New Zealand
Economic wealth : Is it good enough?
How we trade
Nothing is sacred: Defining resource use
Paying for the future: Fiscal responsibility or
irresponsibility
Knowledge capacity
Earthquake central: shocks
A sclerosis of governance or not
Climate change
Population structures and diversity
Identity, perception and culture
Population Structures and Diversity
Indicator 2010 2050
Population (thousands) 4 303 5 349
Male population (thousands) 2 126 2 661
Female population (thousands) 2 177 2 688
Population sex ratio (males per 100 females)
97.7 99.0
Percentage aged 0-4 (%) 6.8 5.5
Percentage aged 5-14 (%) 13.5 11.1
Percentage aged 15-24 (%) 14.6 11.4
Percentage aged 60 or over (%) 18.2 29.2
Percentage aged 65 or over (%) 13.0 23.2
Percentage aged 80 or over (%) 3.5 9.0
Percentage of women aged 15-49 (%)
48.8 40.7
Median age (years) 36.6 43.1
Population density (population per sq. km)
16 20
Indicator 2010 2050
Population (thousands) 4 303 5 349
Male population (thousands) 2 126 2 661
Female population (thousands) 2 177 2 688
Population sex ratio (males per 100 females)
97.7 99.0
Percentage aged 0-4 (%) 6.8 5.5
Percentage aged 5-14 (%) 13.5 11.1
Percentage aged 15-24 (%) 14.6 11.4
Percentage aged 60 or over (%) 18.2 29.2
Percentage aged 65 or over (%) 13.0 23.2
Percentage aged 80 or over (%) 3.5 9.0
Percentage of women aged 15-49 (%)
48.8 40.7
Median age (years) 36.6 43.1
Population density (population per sq. km)
16 20
3
Economic Wealth: Is it Good Enough?
Economic Wealth: Is it Good Enough?
Wealth Distribution Per Cohort (2007)
According Gareth Morgan (2006) New Zealand is on the brink of a retirement tsunami, a tidal wave of ageing baby boomers is about to swamp a dwindling number of taxpayers.
How We Trade
Trade and Enterprise (2010): Export Composition in 2009 ($58b)
Primary -Unprocessed
24%Primary - Processed
25%
Mfg - Simply Transformed
7%
Mfg -Elaborately
Transformed14%
Misc/Confidential Trade
4%
Tourism16%
Education3%
Services & Royalties
7%
NZ Exports 2009
6
How We Trade
Median Earnings $NZ by Sector 2008
$21,730 $21,700$13,170
$38,900
$24,010$33,170
01000020000300004000050000
Agric
ultu
re,
Fore
stry
and
Fish
ing
Reta
il Tr
ade
Acco
mm
odati
on
and
Food
Serv
ices
Tran
spor
t,Po
stal
and
War
ehou
sing
Arts
and
Recr
eatio
nSe
rvic
es
Tota
l Ind
ustr
y
Source: Statistics New Zealand (2010)
7
Paying For the Future
Population ageing is important fiscally because 25% of government spending is currently spent on the 12% of the population aged over 65.
Population ageing is likely to cause a slowdown in economic growth because of the shift to a relatively smaller working-age population.
Government debt as a % of GDP (Source: New Zealand Treasury)
8
Knowledge Capacity
Hungary
Czech
Republic
Portugal
United St
ates
Poland
Germany
United Kingdom
Switz
erland
Italy
Ireland
OECD avera
ge
Netherlands
Finland
France
Canada
Australia
Norway
Sweden
Denmark
New Zealand
-60
-30
0
30
60
90
Growth in percentage point between 1997 and 2007 Deviation from OECD-19 average 2007
Average relative earnings growth at the tertiary level of education between 1997 and 2007 and average relative earn-ings at the tertiary level of education deviation from the OECD average (2007)
%
Source: OECDDegrees in tourism, performing arts, visual arts, and graphic and design arts earned between 10 and 20 percent less than degrees in humanities. A tourism degree resulted in 11% more earning compared to non graduates in the same field, compared to the national average of 25% (Scott 2010)
9
Knowledge Capacity
Slovak RepublicMexico
AustraliaIceland
NetherlandsCzech Republic
NorwayPoland
GermanySpain
TurkeyNew ZealandLuxembourg
AustriaPortugalCanada
United StatesIreland
BelgiumDenmark
KoreaHungary
FranceSwitzerland
ItalyUnited Kingdom
FinlandJapan
Greece
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
78.86 59.52
56.21 54.92
53.86 52.69
51.10 49.69
48.22 48.22 48.02 47.77
46.66 46.35 46.10 45.65 45.52
43.92 39.64
37.08 37.04
36.21 35.60
32.71 31.25 30.63 30.61 30.46 30.06
Broadband average monthly subscription price, Oct. 2008, USD PPP
Listen to Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon discuss why consumers won’t wait here and the future of mobile technologies here
10
Identity Perception and Culture Please indicate how much you agree or disagree with each of the following statements about NZ in 2008
Agree % Disagree % Neither agree or disagree %
Strongly agree %
Strongly disagree %
NZ is a bit old-fashioned 15.59% 45.49% 21.28% 1.06% 16.02% NZ is a great place to raise a family
25.07% 0.73% 2.61% 70.80% 0.59%
NZ is like Britain in the 1950s 6.64% 35.48% 30.49% 1.09% 25.87% NZ lives in Australia's shadow 23.39% 40.44% 15.16% 2.51% 18.17% NZ is doing a great job seizing all its opportunities in the global economy
31.65% 21.74% 37.73% 5.12% 3.20%
Maori and Pacific Island cultures are an important part of what makes NZ unique
48.36% 4.00% 8.06% 38.32% 0.99%
NZ is strongly environmentally conscious as a country
48.86% 9.68% 12.36% 27.22% 1.39%
NZ puts too much emphasis on "work-life balance"
3.34% 50.94% 32.18% 0.99% 12.26%
NZ "punches above its weight" in global affairs
33.30% 23.42% 31.78% 7.93% 3.14%
NZ is too much of a career dead-end for the most talented Kiwis
38.32% 23.62% 26.69% 8.72% 2.35%
NZ isn't really doing as well as Kiwis give themselves credit for
26.99% 29.07% 36.37% 4.16% 2.97%
NZ is a great place to invest in business venture
27.22% 14.77% 53.12% 3.11% 1.26%
I'm optimistic about NZ's economic future
53.22% 10.14% 29.34% 6.21% 0.79
NZ is a great place to retire 37.23% 1.22% 4.29% 56.43% 0.30% NZ arts, film and literature are world-class
45.56% 7.73% 20.55% 24.51% 1.06%
NZ is doing a great job promoting its image in the rest of the world
52.82% 4.53% 10.80% 30.99% 0.53%
NZ has really moved ahead in the last 10 years
45.85% 6.31% 22.93% 22.93% 1.65%
Iden
tity Percep
tion
and
Cu
lture
11
Identity Perception and Culture
Too New Zealand, rugby is the symbol of national identity which is the cornerstone of conversations, stories, life and culture and some would say there isn’t anything else …and it is the All Blacks KaMate haka that is the symbol this identity (Yeoman 2010)
Some people might see a New Zealand identity in aspects of New Zealand history or in New Zealand achievements in sporting, artistic or other endeavours, while others might see it through a sense of national characteristics or traits, or through national symbols and icons. Mäori culture may form one aspect of national identity, since it is both unique to New Zealand and a part of our identity in the outside world (Cultural Identity 2009)
12
A Sclerosis of Governance
"There have been numerous attempts since the 1980s to make improvements to
regulatory processes. The problem is that politicians have poor incentives; they must get
re-elected, and the political cycle is short. Politicians are vulnerable to interest group
pressure, and at times invite that pressure by pandering to various interest groups in search of votes. It's unfortunate, but it's a fact of life
in a democracy” (Hide 2010)
13
A S
cler
osi
s o
f G
ove
rnan
ce
New Zealand’s Global Competitiveness Index Results (Source WEF 2010)
Pillars World Ranking Score
Institutions 5 6.03
Infrastructure 35 4.64
Macroeconomic Stability 33 5.24
Health and Primary Education 4 6.43
Higher Education and Training 11 5.49
Goods and Services Market Efficiency
8 5.20
Labour Market Efficiency 11 5.12
Financial Market Sophistication 3 5.69
Technological Readiness 23 5.24
Market Size 59 3.89
Business Sophistication 34 4.64
Innovation 23 4.10
14
Nothing is Sacred
California spends approximately $400 million annually running national parks and beaches. California’s budget deficit is now $24.3 billion and Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is proposing closure of 220 state parks to reduce this deficit (Young, 2009).
15
Earthquake Central
According to the ‘Its Our Fault’ project the major fault running through Wellington is 50% less likely to rupture than previously thought. New findings show the Wellington fault ruptures every 900 years and last ruptured about 300 years ago. Therefore, a catastrophic earthquake is predicted for 600 years (GNS Science, 2009).
Watch the TV programme, Aftershock which simulates an earthquake in Wellington
Climate Change
Direct effects………
• Shipping reasonably low value goods long distances
increasingly unsustainable.
• Potential emissions trading regime, bio fuels and
energy efficiency.
• Increases in temperatures of between 1.8 and 4.0
degrees.
• Extreme weather, rising sea levels and changed
rainfall patterns.
• Higher temperatures in the South may boost primary
sector productivity.
• Relatively favourable climate may mean NZ becomes
a preferred holiday destination (potential to attract
talented migrants)
• Strengthen competitive position but disrupt global
supply chains.