new york city council hearing on doe capital plan 2015-2019 charts to accompany testimony leonie...

NEW YORK CITY COUNCIL HEARING ON DOE CAPITAL PLAN 2015-2019

CHARTS TO ACCOMPANY TESTIMONY

Leonie Haimson, Executive Director

Class Size Matters

March 18, 2014

Summary of capital plan vs. needs for seats• Current capital plan has (at most) 38,754 seats

• DOE admits need of 49,245 (though doesn’t explain this figure).

• Official enrollment projections estimate increase of 60,000-70,000 students by 2021

• At least 30,000 more seats needed for districts currently above 100%

• This figure does not fully capture need for new seats at neighborhood level, including Kindergarten waiting lists of 2,361

• Does not capture need to replace trailers with capacity of about 12,000 seats

• Also, DOE utilization figures underestimate actual overcrowding according to most experts and Chancellor, who has appointed a taskforce to improve them.

• Revised utilization formula in “Blue Book” should be aligned to smaller classes, dedicated rooms for art, music, special education services, and more.

• Actual need for new seats probably >100,000

School Utilization Rates at critical levels

• Citywide, elementary schools avg. building utilization rates at 96.8%; high schools are not far behind at 94.8%.

• High ES rates in all boroughs, including D10 and D11 in the Bronx 108% and 105.6%, respectively.

• In Queens, D24 (120.6%), D25 (109.7%), D26 (110%), D27 (106.1%), and D30 (107.3%) all extremely overcrowded.

• At the MS level, D20 in Brooklyn, D24, and D25 in Queens have building utilization rates over 95%.

• Queens high school buildings have avg. utilization rate of 110.7% and Staten Island high school buildings 103.2%.

• Data source: Blue Book target utilization rates 2012-2013

Average School Utilization Rates City-Wide

*Calculated by dividing building enrollment by the target capacity

Source: 2012-2013 DOE “Blue Book”

Elementary Schools Middle Schools High Schools70.0%

75.0%

80.0%

85.0%

90.0%

95.0%

100.0%

96.8%

80.9%

94.8%

Manhattan Average Building Utilization Rates by District 2012-2013

D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 High Schools0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

87.1%

97.9%95.3%

88.8%92.3%

94.3%

68.4%

86.9% 90.7%

75.8%78.5%

76.3%

0.894

ESMS


Bronx Average Building Utilization Rates by District 2012-2013

D7 D8 D9 D10 D11 D12 High Schools

-10%

10%

30%

50%

70%

90%

110%

86.6%

99.4%

88.9%

108.0%105.6%

93.9%

82.7% 82.2%

76.1%

91.0%

80.5%

70.9%

0.894

ESMS


Brooklyn Average Building Utilization Rates by District 2012-2013

D13 D14 D15 D16 D17 D18 D19 D20 D21 D22 D23 D32 High Schools

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

74.1%

79.6%

110.8%

66.5%

76.0%72.0%

81.4%

118.9%

95.5%

101.0%

70.0%

79.0%

68.7%65.1%

85.6%

59.1%

74.1%

62.3%

74.3%

96.4%

79.5% 80.0%

65.3%

60.0%

0.886

ESMS


Queens Average Building Utilization Rates 2012-2013 by District

D24 D25 D26 D27 D28 D29 D30 High Schools0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%120.6%

109.7% 110.0%106.1%

98.0%95.6%

107.3%

95.7%98.6%

89.5% 87.5%84.5%

75.3%

91.0%

1.107

ESMS


Staten Island Average Building Utilization Rates 2012-2013

Elementary Schools Middle Schools High Schools

-10%

10%

30%

50%

70%

90%

110% 108.0%

84.5%

1.032


# of Seats currently needed to bring buildings to 100% or less

QUEENS HS STATEN ISLAND HS0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

7,295

518

# of Seats Needed in all districts with building utilization rates higher than

100% at HS level

*These figures are the difference between capacity & enrollment in the organizational target # in 2012-2013 Blue Book

D10 D11 D15 D20 D22 D24 D25 D26 D27 D30 D310

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1,929

1,237

1,822

3,912

189

5,318

1,637

1,2311,451 1,476

2,279

# of Seats Needed in all districts with ES building utilization rates

higher than 100%


Enrollment projections suggest many MORE districts will require additional seats in future• The 2015-2019 capital plan has 31,754 seats plus 2,100 full-day pre-K seats

and 4,900 seats for class size reduction, if bond issue passes.

• When compared to the enrollment projections by Statistical Forecasting and Grier Partnership through 2021, many districts will require more seats than the Capital Plan has allotted.

• Grier Partnership projects enrollment growth at 70,341, Statistical Forecasting at 60,230, and estimates from Housing Starts are 51,727.

• The following slides have citywide & district-by-district for enrollment growth from SF, GP & housing start estimates, compared to new seats in the capital plan.

City-wide Enrollment Projections K-8 vs. New Seats in Capital Plan *Statistical Forecasting does not include

D75 students; K-8 Seats in Capital Plan are categorized as Small PS and PS/IS and includes 4,900 seats for class size reduction if Bond issue passes.

Statis

tical

Forec

astin

g 20

11-2

021

Grier P

artn

ersh

ip 20

11-2

021

Housin

g Sta

rts, E

stim

ated

Gro

wth 2

012-

2021

Capita

l Plan

, New

Sea

ts 2

015-

2019

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

40,589

51,954

38,244 36,654

Source for Housing Starts: NYSCA Projected New Housing Starts 2012-2021, http://www.nycsca.org/Community/CapitalPlanManagementReportsData/Housing/2012-21HousingWebChart.pdf; Projected public school ratio, https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Education/Projected-Public-School-Ratio/n7ta-pz8k

http://www.nycsca.org/Community/CapitalPlanManagementReportsData/Housing/2012-21HousingWebChart.pdf



https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Education/Projected-Public-School-Ratio/n7ta-pz8k


City-wide Enrollment Projections HS vs. New Seats in Capital Plan

Statis

tical

Forec

astin

g 20

11-2

021

Grier P

artn

ersh

ip 20

11-2

021

Housin

g Sta

rts, E

stim

ated

Gro

wth 2

012-

2021

Capita

l Plan

, New

Sea

ts 2

015-

2019

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000 19,46118,387

13,483

3,102

*Statistical Forecasting does not include D75 students; HS Seats in Capital Plan are categorized as IS/HS and does not include seats for class size reduction







Manhattan Enrollment Projections K-8 by District vs. New Seats in Capital Plan

*Statistical Forecasting does not include D75 students

D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6

-4000

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

384

4,194

823

-592-449

-1,356

1,009

2,977

296

-1,008

-102

-3,737

198

4,840

620

164

628

110

3190

692

Statistical Forecasting 2011-2021

Grier Partnership 2011-2021

Housing Starts, Estimated Growth 2012-2021

Capital Plan, New Seats 2015-2019







Bronx Enrollment Projections K-8 by District vs. New Seats in Capital Plan


D7 D8 D9 D10 D11 D120

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

515

1,560

505

4,795

1,275

934

1,797

2,601

835

6,490

2,123 2,024

3,040

579

1,182 1,195

352

1,567

456 456

2192

640912











Brooklyn Enrollment Projections K-8 by District vs. New Seats in Capital Plan

D13 D14 D15 D16 D17 D18 D19 D20 D21 D22 D23 D32

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

1,035

-762

5,112

-62

-2,913-2,091

-1,216

10,381

3,156

-228

-1,090 -1,568

1,191

-599

7,826

763

-3,244

-1,656

-471

14,504

4,434

95

-1,097 -1,549

3,094

5,120

922420 528 120

1,010280

1,41694 203 136

1090 991

2192

4045

912456












Queens Enrollment Projections K-8 by District vs. New Seats in Capital Plan

D24 D25 D26 D27 D28 D29 D30

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,0007,737

3,730

1,742

997

2,411

-63

173

7,128

3,228

1,887

1,074

2,163

297

-985

208

2252

90

501

870

507

5277

4045

2309

960

456640

912 1000












Staten Island Enrollment Projections K-8 by District vs. New Seats in Capital Plan

-100

100

300

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,7001,520

1,659

720

912

*Statistical Forecasting does not include D75 students in its enrollment projections







Also Kindergarten Waitlists in many neighborhoods

Man Bronx Brooklyn Queens SI0

100200300400500600700800900

1000

751

112

679

883

163

462

211

720

942

47

569

114

622

946

110

# of Kids on waitlists for Kindergarten 2011-2013 by Borough

2011

2012

2013

2 3 4 5 6 8 9 101112131415161718192021222425262728293031320%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

38%33%

8%5% 5%

7%

18%

6%5%

43%

4%8%

37%

23%

7%

31%31%

14%

8%

15%

4%

31%

13%

% of Schools w/ Waitlists by District* 2013

Districts 1, 7, 23 not included as they are "choice districts")

2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

499

1885

2588 23822361

Zoned Kindergarten wait lists, citywide 2009-13

Unmet need in Queens HS especially acute

. DOE’s utilization figures indicate a shortage of 7295 seats in Queens HS currently

• These figures underestimate actual level of overcrowding, according to most principals.

• DOE consultants project an increase in Queens high school enrollment of 12,567- 12,980 by 2021.

• Yet only 2,802 Queens HS seats proposed in five-year plan, a shortage of more than 17,000 seats.

Kindergarten Waitlists• 2,361 families in 2013 were on waiting lists for

Kindergarten in 105 schools across 23 school districts.

• Problem is most prevalent in Queens, where 946 students were placed on waiting lists in 2013, followed by Brooklyn at 622, and Manhattan at 569.

• Districts 2, 3, 15, 21, 24, 25, & 30 had 30% or more schools with waiting lists for Kindergarten.

• From 2009 -2013, number of children on waiting lists has increased by 373%.

2013 Kindergarten Waitlist: 105 Schools, 2,361 Children

http://mapalist.com/Public/pm.aspx?mapid=362276

•“Blue book” data & Utilization formula inaccurate & underestimates actual level of overcrowding

• Class sizes in grades 4-12 larger than current averages & far above goals in city’s C4E plan & will likely force class sizes upwards

• Doesn’t require full complement of cluster rooms or special needs students to have dedicated spaces for their mandated services

• Doesn’t properly account for students now housed in trailers in elementary and middle schools.

• Doesn’t account for co-locations which subtract about 10% of space for each.

• Redefines full size classroom only 500 sq. feet min., leading to building code/safety violations at many schools.

Comparison of class sizes in Blue book compared to current averages & goals

Grade levels UFT Contract class size limits

Target class sizes in "blue

book"

Current average class sizes

C4E class Size goals

How many students can 500 sq. ft classrooms hold acc to NYC building code

Kindergarten 25 20 23 19.9 14

1st-3rd 32 20 25.5 19.9 25

4th-5th 32 28 26 22.9 25

6th-8th 30 (Title I)

33 (non-Title I)28 27.4 22.9 25

HS (core classes) 34 30 26.7* 24.5 25

*DOE reported HS class sizes unreliable

Class sizes have increased for six years in a row

• In grades K-3 class sizes now largest since 1998; in grades 4-8 largest since 2002.

• In K-3 average class size is 24.9 (including general education, inclusion and gifted classes) compared to 20.9 in 2007, increase of 19% since 2006.

• In grades 4-8, the average class size is now 26.8, compared to 25.1 in 2007 – an increase of 7%.

• In HS “core” academic classes, DOE reports class sizes average 26.7, compared to 26.1 in 2007. Yet DOE’s way of measuring HS class sizes is inaccurate and their methodology changes nearly every year, so these estimates cannot be relied upon.

• Class sizes in K-8 have risen as the number of general education, CTT and gifted classes in these grades have dropped sharply, by about 2500 classes since 2007.

• The number of teachers decreased by about 4000 between 2007-2010, according to the Mayor’s Management Report, despite rising enrollment.

1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

24.90

23.25

22.3822.10

21.6821.5521.2821.1221.0020.90

21.40

22.10

22.90

23.8924.46

24.86

K-3 Class sizes are the largest since 1998 General ed, CTT and gifted: data from IBO

1998-2005; DOE 2006-2013

1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010-11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

28.1

27.527.2

27.4

27.0

26.726.4

25.9

25.6

25.125.3

25.8

26.3

26.6 26.7 26.8

4th – 8th grade Class sizes largest since 2002 Gened, CTT and gifted: data from IBO 1998-

2005; DOE 2006-2013

FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY 13

79,10979,021

76,795

74,958

72,787

73,844

Total no. of teachers dropped by 5,000 since 2007-8

data source: Mayor's Management Report

new york city council hearing on doe capital plan 2015-2019 charts to accompany testimony leonie...

Documents

seats doe

doe utilization figures

new seats

doe capital plan

building enrollment

blue book source

additional seats

high es rates