new mobilities, new agrarian forms? migration and agrarian transformations in southeast
DESCRIPTION
Jonathan Rigg from the Geography Department of the National University of Singapore describes how the migration patters are changing, how mobile living has evolved, how the life course of migrants has changed, how all of this has affected farming, how the household is changing, what the differences between first and second-generation migrants are and how the urbane villager can be defined.TRANSCRIPT
NEW MOBILITIES, NEW AGRARIAN FORMS?
Migration and agrarian transformations in Southeast
Jonathan Rigg Geography Department
Na0onal University of Singapore
Development writ small: Two villages, 77 households, 25 years
Ban Non Tae, Northeast Thailand: 1982
Ban Non Tae, Northeast Thailand: 1994
Ban Non Tae, Northeast Thailand: 2008
!1. Majority of households dependent on non-‐farm work & individuals
increasingly mobile 2. Despite 25 years of profound change, tracked down 77 of original 81
households 3. Large majority of households con0nued to own and farm land
Three surprises here
Trends vs. turbulence
Household code Amount of money earned
Mobile living: counHng and catching the new normal
!Vietnam • 12-‐16 million, or 13-‐18% of the country’s total popula0on in 2010 (UNDP
2010: 5) !
!China • 130 mio. rural-‐urban migrant workers • largest migra0on stream in human history; including rural-‐rural migrants • total number on the move at the end of 2008: 225 mio. !!Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines • several million migrants in each of these countries
‘FloaHng populaHons’ in Vietnam and China
„For the most part, migration data remain patchy, non-comparable and difficult to access. … !
Despite our ability to establish these broad contours of movement, what we know is dwarfed by what we don’t know. Unfortunately, migration data remain weak. It is much easier for
policy makers to count the international movements of shoes and cell-phones than of nurses and construction workers.“
(UNDP 2009, 28)
‘FloaHng populaHons’ in Vietnam and China
Known unknowns: Ban Khokmayom: Gauging the populaHon of a village in Thailand
!10
Households PopulaHonUthai district census bureau (2005) -‐ 378
Tambon data (Kor Chor Chor 2 Khor 2003)
Tambon health staHon (2005)Survey esHmate (2005)
!11
Known unknowns: Ban Khokmayom: Gauging the populaHon of a village in Thailand
!12
Households PopulaHonUthai district census bureau (2005) -‐ 378
Tambon data (Kor Chor Chor 2 Khor 2003) 126 425Tambon health staHon (2005)Survey esHmate (2005)
Known unknowns: Ban Khokmayom: Gauging the populaHon of a village in Thailand
Households PopulaHon
Uthai district census bureau (2005) -‐ 378
Tambon data (Kor Chor Chor 2 Khor 2003) 126 425
Tambon health staHon (2005) 288 1,257Survey esHmate (2005) -‐ 3,000
!13
Households PopulaHonUthai district census bureau (2005) -‐ 378
Tambon data (Kor Chor Chor 2 Khor 2003) 126 425Tambon health staHon (2005) 288 1,257Survey esHmate (2005)
Known unknowns: Ban Khokmayom: Gauging the populaHon of a village in Thailand
!14
Known unknowns: Ban Khokmayom: Gauging the populaHon of a village in Thailand
Households PopulaHonUthai district census bureau (2005) -‐ 378
Tambon data (Kor Chor Chor 2 Khor 2003) 126 425Tambon health staHon (2005) 288 1,257Survey esHmate (2005) - 3,000
Ban Khokmayom
Ban Khokmayom
Everyday poliHcal economies: Ban Khokmayom
Ban Khokmayom
Land-‐grabbing/global enclosure in Laos
rubber in the north
Mobility, the life course and era-‐defining change
0,0000
25,0000
50,0000
75,0000
100,0000
10-19
years
20-29
years
30-39
years
40-49
years
50-59
years
60 ye
ars +
10-19
years
20-29
years
30-39
years
40-49
years
50-59
years
60 ye
ars +
Farming 1989Non-farm work 1989
Teasing out era, life course and generaHonal changes !
Gender, genera0on and occupa0on in a Northeastern Thai village
Rite of passage?
Male Female
0,0000
25,0000
50,0000
75,0000
100,0000
10-19
years
20-29
years
30-39
years
40-49
years
50-59
years
60 ye
ars+
10-19
years
20-29
years
30-39
years
40-49
years
50-59
years
60 ye
ars +
Farming 2000Non-farm work 2000
Or era-defining change?
0,0000
25,0000
50,0000
75,0000
100,0000
Farming 1989Non-farm work 1989
Male Female
Residency classificaHon
Number of interviewees
% of sample Average length of Hme in Hanoi (years)
KT1 6 20 20
KT2 3 10 20
KT3 7 23 14
KT4 9 30 13
No registraHon 2 7 9
Unknown 3 10 6
Total 30 100 14
Residency classificaHon of interviewees Hanoi, Vietnam (2010)
Note: KT3 and KT4 are temporary registra0ons; these interviewees do not have urban residency or ho khau
MulH-‐sited households, mulH-‐sited livelihoods
Household footprints, Northeast Thailand
Income sources Ban Dong Daeng, Northeast Thailand: 1981 & 2002 (%)
Source: data extracted from Funahashi 2009: 3.
0102030405060708090
100
!Village-based,!
agricultural
!Village-based, !
non-agriculturalNon-village based,!
wages and remittances
40:60 agricultural/non-‐agricultural
60:40 in situ/ex situ
0102030405060708090
100
!Village-based,!
agricultural
!Village-based, !
non-agriculturalNon-village based,!
wages and remittances
Source: data extracted from Funahashi 2009: 3.
Income sources Ban Dong Daeng, Northeast Thailand: 1981 & 2002 (%)
40:60 agricultural/non-‐agricultural
60:40 in situ/ex situ15:85 agricultural/non-‐agricultural
20:80 in situ/ex situ
Sub-‐livelihood landholdings: few are becoming landless; many are becoming land poor
% (
n=77
)
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
40,0
45,0
Categories of farmholding (rail)
None 1-2 3-5 6-9 10-19 20-50 >50
1982/832008
The % of landless households in 25 years has risen from 5% to 15% -‐ 85% sHll own (some) land
Villages sustained through absence (Thanh Hoa, Vietnam, 2010) ‘remieance landscapes’ (McKay)
MigraHon and farming
MigraHon, dissociaHon and the geriatrificaHon of farming
Ageing farmers
Farming 83,6 35,7 35,0 51,7 54,8 58
Casual wage work 5,1 42,1 39 12,5 39,3 39
Government employment 3,6 34,2 35 11,2 38,5 37
Private employment 1,8 20,2 18 9,9 35,0 34
Entrepreneurs 0,7 37,5 37,5 9,1 39,9 36,5
Others 5,1 23,6 22 5,6 33,8 32
% (N=275) Mean!! Median % !
(N = 232) Mean MedianOccupation categories
Age (1982/1983) Age (2008)
GeriatrificaHon of farming & reproducHon of farm household (Average age of household heads risen from 47 to 60 years old)
• Mechanisa<on • Geriatrifica<on of farming • Disintensifica<on • Land use change • Cropping changes (transplant – broadcast rice culture) • Idle land
In Japan • Average size of farm = 1.9 ha • 85% of farmers are part-‐<me • Between 1960-‐2004 number of farmers dropped from 12.2 million to 2.2 million • In 2009, 66,000 people took up farming; just 1,850 were from non-‐farming
backgrounds • The average age of farmers exceeded 65 for the first <me in 2010 (65.8 years) • In many areas, just 10% of farmers have a son/daughter willing to take over the farm
The household and the reproducHon of the farm household
Household footprints, Northeast Thailand
Demographic characterisHcs1982/83 2008
Baseline Re-‐study
Household head or relaHonships to household head (%)
Household head 15.7
Spouse of HH head 13.6
Child of household head 54.2
Spouse of child of HH head 3.9
Grandchild of HH head 9.2
Spouse of grandchild of HH head 0.2
Nephew/nieces of HH head 0.2
Parent of HH head/spouse 1.0
Sibling of HH head/spouse 1.6
Other extended family members 0.4
Household complexity, Maharsarakham, Thailand
Demographic characterisHcs1982/83 2008
Baseline Re-‐study
Household head or relaHonships to household head (%)
Household head 15.7 21.3Spouse of HH head 13.6 13.0Child of household head 54.2 22.7Spouse of child of HH head 3.9 8.8Grandchild of HH head 9.2 21.3Spouse of grandchild of HH head 0.2 0.0Nephew/nieces of HH head 0.2 2.5Parent of HH head/spouse 1.0 1.4Sibling of HH head/spouse 1.6 2.2Other extended family members 0.4 6.9
Household complexity, Maharsarakham, Thailand
Two issues: 1. What is ‘the household’ (No longer a co-‐
residen<al dwelling unit) 2. How will the farm household be
reproduced?
Mobility, the natal village and the middle income gap
Date of departure of first and second generaHon migrants, Thailand
0
10
20
30
40
74-7
980
-84
85-8
990
-94
95-9
900
-04
05-0
910
-12
1st genereation migrants2nd generation migrants
Source: survey, Nov-Dec 2012; n = 54 (1st generation migrants), n = 97 (2nd generation migrants)
First generaHon migrants in Bangkok, circa 1990
Migrants in Bangkok circa 1990
Second generaHon migrants in Bangkok circa 2005
MigraHon and return: the migrants of the 1980s departed as sojourning farmers; the migrants of the 2000s depart as school leavers with only a tenuous link to farming and the land
Migrants in Bangkok circa 1990
Second generaHon migrants in Bangkok circa 2005
EducaHonal status of first and second generaHon migrants on departure (Thailand)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Primary
Lower Secondary
Upper Secondary
Higher Education
Vocational Certificate
1st generation2nd generation
Source: survey Nov-‐Dec 2012; n=54 (first genera<on migrants) and n = 97 (second genera<on migrants
MigraHon signatures Northeast Thailand 1974-‐2012
020406080
100120140160
Migrants Total
Returnees Expected ReturneesMarriage Migrants Permanent labour migrantsTotal Migrants (current & returning)
MigraHon signatures Northeast Thailand 1974-‐2012
020406080
100120140160
Migrants Total
Returnees Expected ReturneesMarriage Migrants Permanent labour migrantsTotal Migrants (current & returning)
MigraHon signatures Northeast Thailand 1974-‐2012
020406080
100120140160
Migrants Total
Returnees Expected ReturneesMarriage Migrants Permanent labour migrantsTotal Migrants (current & returning)
MigraHon signatures Northeast Thailand 1974-‐2012
020406080
100120140160
Migrants Total
Returnees Expected ReturneesMarriage Migrants Permanent labour migrantsTotal Migrants (current & returning)
020406080
100120140160
Migrants Total
Returnees Expected ReturneesMarriage Migrants Permanent labour migrantsTotal Migrants (current & returning)
MigraHon signatures Northeast Thailand 1974-‐2012
22 migrants or 15% of total were permanent out-‐migrants !o 60% of first generaHon migrants found
their skills of liele use in the village o 75% of second generaHon migrants did so
Precarity in Thailand: the formalisaHon of employment, 1980-‐2000
0
20
40
60
80
100
19801985199019952000
20052006200720082009201020112012
Informal sector employmentFormal sector employment
Precarity in Thailand: the informalisaHon of the formal sector, 1980-‐2012
0
20
40
60
80
100
19801985199019952000
20052006200720082009201020112012
Informal sector employmentFormal sector employment
What is ‘urban’? The urbane villager
In the rural… but of the rural? The rural as socially urban, and also in terms of ameni<es and iden<<es – being urbane in the rural
In the rural… but of the rural? Thompson (2007): ‘socially urban’ Keyes (2010): ‘rural cosmopolitans’ Walker (2012): ‘middle income peasants’
The cosmopolitan peasant...? “Northeastern families today have become increasingly ‘cosmopolitan’ because they are linked to a global labor force, have sophis<cated understandings of Bangkok society, and yet s<ll retain long-‐standing resentment for being looked down on as country bumpkins” (Keyes 2010: 2 ).