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New England Governors
Eastern Canadian Premiers
Annual Conference
Stephen J. Rourke
Vice President, System Planning
July 11, 2011
Halifax, Nova Scotia
Examination of
Proposed
Renewables &
Clean Energy
Resources in 2008
Hydro Nuclear Landfill gas
Wind Biomass Fuel cells
• Eastern Canada– Large hydro and wind
• New England– Wind and small
dispersed resources
NEG/ECP
July 11, 2011
© ISO New England Inc2
New England Renewable Energy Production12% today, but 30% required by 2020
Biomass
Refuse
Hydro(not pump storage)
Other Small Generation*
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
.8%
GWH
% of Total 2010 Regional Production
(*Note: Other small generation includes: landfill gas, methane, solar, wind, and steam)Source: http://www.iso-ne.com/markets/hstdata/rpts/net_eng_peak_load_sorc/energy_peak_source.xls
5.7%
2.3%
3.0%
3
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© ISO New England Inc
105,000
110,000
115,000
120,000
125,000
130,000
135,000
140,000
145,000
150,000
155,000
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
CELT Energy before Netting Federal Appliance Standards
CELT Energy
CELT Energy Net PDRs
New Energy Efficiency & Appliance
Standards Temper Growth
4
Historical Use & 50/50 Peak Forecast
1.1%
annual growth rate
for electric energy
2011 - 2020
Appliance Standards Begin
CELT Energy before netting federal appliance standards
CELT Energy
CELT Energy net passive demand resources
NEG/ECP
July 11, 2011
© ISO New England Inc
New England Governors Adopt
Long-term Renewable Energy Vision in 2009
States’ Blueprint as guiding policy
and regulatory frameworkISO economic study as technical
support
5
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© ISO New England Inc
New
BrunswickQuébec
New
York
Wind Potential Areas; Benefits & Challenges
6
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© ISO New England Inc6
Areas with strong
wind potential
• Significant potential – Best in north and off-shore
• Wind Benefits:– Fuel diversity
– State renewable portfolio goals
– Fuel costs
• Challenges:– Higher capital costs
– Siting issues
– Intermittent/operational concern
– Cost of transmission investment
– Low natural gas prices
• Wind on System• +250 MW now
• +550 MW by end of 2011
ISO Completes Comprehensive Regional
Wind Study in 2010
• Large-scale wind integration achievable
with additional transmission investment
• Wind resources should be expected to
reduce fossil-fueled generation
– Including natural gas and oil
• Flexible resources needed to manage
variability– Additional regulation and operating reserves
needed
– Natural gas fleet may provide flexibility
• Centralized wind power forecasting
required
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NEG/ECP
July 11, 2011
© ISO New England Inc
Study Considers Several Potential Scenarios
PollutantApproximate
annual reduction
Approximate
reduction vs. no
wind
NOx 6,000 tons 26%
SOx 4,000 tons 6%
CO2 12,000,000 tons 25%
• Combination of on- and off-shore
development can produce 20% of
region’s energy need, reduce
emissions
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© ISO New England Inc
Conceptual Overlays ConsideredTransmission needed to access New England wind & imports from Canada
New tie to
Québec
New tie to
New
Brunswick
Each tie could
provide approx.
11% of New
England’s energy
Could provide
approx. 24% of
New England’s
energy
New high-voltage
transmission loop for
12,000 MW wind scenario
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© ISO New England Inc
Transmission ProgressingTransmission projects developed throughout region and
improved import capability
• Reliability improved
across region – Reduced congestion
– Minimized reliance on older
and less efficient units
– Economic dispatch of
generation
• Foundation set for
renewable resource
integration – but more
transmission needed
NW VT
Northeast
Reliability
Interconnect
SWCT Phase 1 & 2
New England
East-West
Solution
Maine Power
Reliability Program
Short & Long- Term SEMA
NSTAR Boston Phases 1 & 2
Monadnock
Area
In service
Construction
Study
VT
Southern
Loop
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© ISO New England Inc
Recent Shift in Regional Capacity Generation fleet historically dominated by nuclear & oil
• Region largely dependent on
oil & nuclear through 1990’s
• Efficient combined-cycle gas
units have displaced older oil-
fired generators
• Investments in transmission
system have reduced reliance
on older fossil units
• Renewable resources growing
in interconnection queue
5%
18%
41%41%
34%
21%
26% 18%
14%
12% 9%9%
6% 5%5%
10% 9% 9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990 2000 2010
Capacity
Hydro and other renewables
Pumped storage
Coal
Nuclear
Oil
Natural gas
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© ISO New England Inc
Shift in Regional Energy GenerationNatural Gas now dominant fuel
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22%
15%
Oil Natural Gas
2000
0.5%
46%
Oil Natural Gas
2010
% of Regional Generation
34%
6%
Oil Natural Gas
1990
Oil use down significantly last 20 years
Natural gas use up significantly last 20 years
Factors Likely to Result in More Changes?
• Market conditions– Relatively low cost of natural gas can displace other resources
• Upcoming US Environmental Protection Agency rules
• Aging fossil-fuel plants
– Clean Air Transport Rule – Utility Air Toxics Rule
– Cooling Water Intake Rule – Coal Combustion Residuals
Age as of 2030 Total MW of Coal and Oil Units
> 50 years old 8,600
> 60 years old 4,300
> 70 years old 1,200
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NEG/ECP
July 11, 2011
© ISO New England Inc
7,000 MWs of Projects Proposed for RegionMajority of proposed projects in Queue* natural gas or renewables
Coal 42Oil 42
Nuclear 42
Natural Gas 3,24147%
Pump Storage 100
Hydro 44
Wind 2,884
Biomass398
LandfillGas 34Solar 6
Renewables3,366 49%
*June 2011 FERC Jurisdictional Section of Generator Interconnection Queue
Renewables
by Type (MW)
Full Queue* (MW)
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© ISO New England Inc
Planning in New England and Beyond
Federal Energy
Commission Regulatory
• NOPR: transmission for
“public policy;” cost allocation;
interregional coordination
• Order expected this year
Eastern
Interconnection
Planning Collaborative
• Potential resource and
transmission scenarios
• Final report to US DOE
end of 2012
New England States
Committee on
Electricity
• Coordinated procurement
for renewables
• Identified almost 5,000
MW of potential
development
Inter-Area Interconnection-WideNew England
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© ISO New England Inc
Closing Thoughts …
• New England’s generation fleet has changed significantly
and will continue to evolve
• Renewables – specifically wind – can have expanded role
• New England Strategic Planning Initiative evaluating
potential loss of older fossil-fired generation and
integration of new resources, such as wind
• ISO will continue to get feedback from the states and
looks forward to the opportunity to provide updates to New
England Governor’s and Eastern Canadian Premiers
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© ISO New England Inc