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Victor Logatskiy, Leading Expert, Energy Programmes, Razumkov Centre, Kyiv, Ukraine
NEW ENERGY STRATEGY
OF UKRAINE TILL 2035:SECURITY, ENERGY EFFICIENCY, COMPETITIVE ABILITY
2
Energy Sector of Ukraine at a Glance in 2016
THE STRUCTURE AND CAPACITY OF THE ЕNERGY SECTOR OF UKRAINE (2016)*
FUEL ELECTRIC POWER INDUSTRY
OILNATURAL
GAS COAL
BIOMASS TO FUEL NUCLEAR THERMAL HYDRO
NON-HYDRO RES
Proven reserves: 1104 bcm
Production:20 bcm
NATURAL GAS TRANSPOR-TATION AND
STORAGE
CRUDE OIL TRANSPOR-TATION AND
STORAGE
REFINERY
Proven reserves
(incl. HGL): 250 mt
Production:2,2 mt
Reserves: 33873 mt
Production:41 mt
(33 mt - energy coal incl.)
Avai lable resources: 33 mt o.e.
Used: 2,5 mt o.e.
Transit capacity: 140 bcm/year
Total length of main gas pipelines: 38550 km
Natural gas compressor stations: 72
Underground natural gas storage faci lities: 12 with
31 bcm of storage working capacity
Total length of natural gas distribution networks:
367000 km
Natural gas transit:82 bcm (growth 22%
from 2015 year)
Output capacity: 56,3 mt/year
Total length of main oil pipel ines: 4767 km
Oil pumping stations: 51
Reservoir parks: 11 with total storage capacity of 1083
thousand cm
Sea oi l terminal Pivdenny with total handling capacity of
14,5 mt/year
Crude oil t ransit: 15,2 mt
Design capacity (crude oil)
of 6 biggest refineries:
51,1 mt/year
In operation: only 1 from 6 biggest
Crude oil and HGL processed: 2,5 mt
POWER ELECTRICITY NETWORK
Installed capacity of 15 power units (reactors):
13835 MW-e (25%)
Electrici ty production:81 mMWh (52%)
Installed capacity including cogeneration plants: 34314 MW-e
(62%)
Electrici ty production:63,2 mMWh (41%)
Installed capacity: 6221 MW-e (11%)
Electrici ty production:9,1 mMWh (6%)
Installed capacity of RES power stations:
962 MW-e (2%)
Including:
- Solar – 458 MW-e
- Wind – 439 MW-e
- Biomass fi red – 65 MW-e
Electrici ty production:1,6 mMWh (1%)
Length of main power transmission lines:
29190 km
136 basic substations with total transformation capacity of
78632 MVA.
Length of electrical distribution grids: about 1 mi llion km
about 200 thousand 6-150 kV local transformer substations.
Electrici ty transportation:153 mMWh
Export of electr icity:4 mMWh (91% in EU)
Ukrainian energy sector
in key estimations:
• Ranks in the top 10 in
Europe
• Ranks in top 30 in the
World
• Occupies ~ 30% of national
economy
• Provides transportation
~ 20% of annual EU natural
gas consumption
• Requires adaptation to new
challenges, market
conditions and
modernization, and state
policy for development
* Razumkov Centre’s analysis
New Energy Strategy
3
Hierarchical Structure of the New Energy Strategy of Ukraine
tIll 2035: the goals, tasks, mechanisms and algorithms
Legend: * Source: Razumkov Centre’s presentation Goals Tasks Mechanisms Algorithms
4
Temporal Vector: the Main Phases of the Energy Strategy
Till 2020
Till 2025
Till 2035
Ph
ase
1
Energy Sector Reforms on the basis of EU Legislation Implemen-tation P
ha
se
2
Optimization and Innovative Development of the Energy Infrastructure EU-Ukraine Energy Markets Integration
Ph
as
e3
EnsuringSustainable Energy DevelopmentAdjusting the energy policy in line with the European and global tendencies
5
Phase 1. Energy Sector Reforms: Key Tasks
Completion of the implementation of the 3rd EU Energy Package; modern energy markets formation
Institutional reforming of the state energy companies and integration to ENTSO-G
Increasing of domestic natural gas production
Progressive decreasing of GDP energy intensity
Increasing of the RES share and investments in regard to Emissions Reduction National Action Plan
6
Phase 2. Optimization and Innovative Development
of the Energy Infrastructure: Key Tasks
Integration to ENTSO-E
Modernisation of the energy grids infrastructure, smart-grids implementation
Development of heating infrastructure depending on local resources and regional specifics
Country’s achievement to self-provision with natural gas from domestic production
Follow-up increasing of the RES share and investments in regard to Emissions Reduction National Action Plan
7
Phase 3. Ensuring Sustainable Energy
Development: Key Tasks
Innovative development and CHP plants and NPP construction instead of disposal or obsolete units
Extensive implementation of smart-grids and client-oriented networks
Adaptation of the gas transportation system to the actual demands of the all-European gas market
Increasing domestic natural gas production
Follow-up increasing of the RES share up to 25% of GES and investments to further emissions reduction
8
Forecast of the Structure of the Primary Energy Supply
* Термальна енергія довкілля та скидні ресурси техногенного походження
27
1814 13 12
26
24 27 28 29
10,5
9,58 7,5 7
23,0
24 28 2724
2
46 8
11
Solar and wind; 0,1 Solar and wind; 1 Solar and wind; 2 Solar and wind; 5
Solar and wind; 10
Hydro; 1
Hydro; 1Hydro; 1
Hydro; 1
Hydro; 1
Heat and geothermal; 0,5
Heat and geothermal; 0,5
Heat and geothermal; 1
Heat and geothermal; 1,5
Heat and geothermal; 2,0
90,1
82
87
91
96
75
80
85
90
95
100
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
mln. t.o.e.
Coal Natural gas Oil productsNuclear Biofuels and wastes Solar and windHydro Heat and geothermal Total
30 2216,1 14,3 12,5
28,929,3
31,030,8
30,2
11,6
11,5
9,28,2
7,3
25,5
29,3
32,229,7
25,0
2,24,9
6,9
8,8
11,5
Solar and wind; 0,1
Solar and wind; 1,2
Solar and wind; 2,4
Solar and wind; 5,5
Solar and wind; 10,4
Hydro; 1,1 Hydro; 1,2 Hydro; 1,1 Hydro; 1,1 Hydro; 1,0
Heat and geothermal; 0,6
Heat and geothermal; 0,6
Heat and geothermal; 1,1
Heat and geothermal; 1,6
Heat and geothermal; 2,1
4
8
12
17
25
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
%
Coal Natural gas Oil products
Nuclear Biofuels and wastes Solar and wind
Hydro Heat and geothermal - RES
9
Strategy’s Benchmark Indicators
A. Energy Efficiency Approaching 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
GDP energy intensity (t.o.e. /’000 $PPP 2005) 0,28 0,20 0,18 0,15 0,13
Losses share in electricity grids (%) >12 10 9 8 <7,5
B. Expansion of the RES 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
RES share in the Total Primary Energy
Supply (%)4 8* 12 17 25
* RES share in the final energy consumption is estimated 11% of the total final energy consumption in 2020.
Thank you for your attention!
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