vsmpo-avismacorporation · 2018. 4. 14. · 2035. source: bp energy outlook 2035 *million tonnes...
TRANSCRIPT
VSMPO-AVISMA Corporation
Joint Venture
an
A World Leader in Titanium
2
Industrial Titanium Demand Forecast 2015
Kevin J. CainPresident
Uniti Titanium LLC
Overview & 5 Year Forecast
Near Term Market Influences
3
• A 50% drop in oil prices and the rapid reduction in capital spending.
• Energy mix changes; away from coal and oil to natural gas and renewables.
• New sources of energy have emerged.• Demand shifts between the various global markets.• New government policies are being created to address
climate change.
Global Population Growth & GDP Forecast
4
Global Population Growth Continues7.35 billion now ~ 10.16 billion by 2050
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
Wor
ld P
opul
atio
n (B
illio
ns)
OECD
Non-OECD
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision
Regional GDP Growth
Source: IMF 5 year forecast: April 2015 (growth at constant prices)
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
China
India
United States
European Union
Middle East and NorthAfricaWorld
Industries for Ti consumption
5
• Energy• Chemical Processing• Desalination
World Energy Consumption
6
Energy
7
Energy Outlook• Oil & Gas• Power Generation
8
0500
1000150020002500300035004000
Worldwide Rig Count
Source: Baker Hughes
Oil & Gas
Demand for Oil Over the Next 20 YearsIncreases 15-20%
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
2500
2600
2700
2800
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Source: BP Energy Outlook 2035
*million tonnes oil
9
Natural Gas Production Will Increase by 40-50% Over the Next 20 Years
0500
100015002000250030003500400045005000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
*million tonnes oil equivalent
10
Oil & Gas; Long Term View
11
• Demand for oil is forecasted to increase by 15% to 20% over the next 20 years (Exxon Mobil)
• Natural gas is likely to increase 45-50%. Growth in unconventional supplies to account for 60% of the increase.
• Use of titanium Deepwater platforms FPSO’s (Floating Production, Storage & Offloading Vessel) LNG plants Floating LNG plants Water filtration / purification plants Heat transfer equipment
• 2015 is estimated to drop by 20% to 25% from 2013/14 levels. Expansion is forecasted to occur in 2017 and beyond.
Source: www.offshoreenergytoday.com
• Gas Treatment Remove condensales,
brines, hydrogen sulfides & carbon dioxide
• Liquefaction
• Transport
• Statistics 495 meters long x 75
meters wide Process 6-7 million tons
per annum of LNG Location: W.Austalia
12
Exxon, BHP Billiton Get Approval for Scarborough FLNG
Energy
13
Energy Outlook
• Oil & Gas• Power Generation
World Net Electricity Generation
14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Trill
ion
kWh
OECD Americas
OECD Europe
OECD Asia
Europe and Euraisa
Source: Energy Information Administration – International Energy Outlook 2013
Forecast CAGR
3.2%
Forecast CAGR
1.3%
Forecast CAGR
3.5%
Power Generation as a % of Worldwide Primary Energy Consumption
- 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000
2013
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Total EnergyConsumptionInputs to PowerGeneration
*Energy production comprises commercially traded fuels, including modern renewables used to generate electricity. *Energy consumption comprises commercially traded fuels, including modern renewables used to generate electricity.Source: BP Energy Outlook 2035
*million tons of oil equivalent
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Energy Demand – Global Power Generation
8%
21%
43%
19%
9%
2000 DATA
OilGasCoalNuclearRenewables
144 Quadrillion BTUs
Source: Exxon Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040
3%
28%
33%
19%
17%
2040 FCST
OilGasCoalNuclearRenewables
291 Quadrillion BTUs
16
Power Generation
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GW Forecast by Fuel Type – new on-line capacity
59 67 75 82 90
172195
202 206213
22
2527
2929
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
GW
Gas Coal Nuclear
Source: BP Energy Outlook 2035 & Uniti Titanium Marketing Intelligence
Energy Demand by Type
38%
21%
22%
6%
13%
2000 DATA
OilGasCoalNuclearRenewables
418 Quadrillion BTUs
Source: Exxon Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040
32%
26%
19%
8%
15%
2040 FCST
OilGasCoalNuclearRenewables
717 Quadrillion BTUs
18
Power Generation: Ti demand
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Electricity: Titanium Demand
• Approximately 6000MT will be consumed per year over the next 5 years.
• Use of titanium Welded tubes Tube sheets Heat transfer equipment
Source: Internal estimate
Chemical Processing
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• Global investment in Asia and Middle East• Capital investment shifting to North America.
Natural gas liquids (NGL) $100b of incremental capital investment by 2025
• Global capital expenditures PTA (pure terephthalic acid); polyester film and filter production Urea/ammonia nitrate; crop fertilizer Chlorine/caustic soda Natural Gas Liquids (NGL), ethane and propane for use in plastics and
other building block chemicals.
BP Energy Outlook 2035, Exxon Mobile Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040
Photo — The multibillion dollar Baytown expansion will create 10,000 jobs at peak construction. Source: ExxonMobil “An interview with Neil Chapman”
Construction at Chevron Phillips Chemical’s Cedar Bayou 1-Hexene plant in Baytown will will be completed in early 2014. The expansion there and at other Chevron Phillips plants along the Gulf coast was prompted by low natural gas prices. (Chevron Phillips)Source: Chevron Phillips
SOURCE: Aerial image of furnace expansion progress at Equistar’s LaPorte steam cracker –
Bechtel-Linde Consortium to build Large-scale Ethylene Plant at ExxonMobil Baytown Complex 21
Chemical Processing
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• Titanium end-use applications General fabrication of tanks and vessels Piping systems Heat transfer equipment Fittings and fasteners Welded tubing
• It’s estimated that the average annual consumption of titanium in the chemical process industry will be10,000MT per year for the next 5 years.
Industries for Ti Consumption
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• Energy Oil and gas Power Generation
• Chemical Processing NGL’s PTA Urea Chlorine / Caustic
• Desalination
Desalination
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• Applications Removes salt from seawater for and potable end use Clean wastewater streams (ex. Frac flow back water from shale gas)
• Technologies Reverse osmosis (RO) Thermal (MSF and MED)
Desalination
25
Technology Split – 2013 to 2018
5% 6%
89%
million m3/d
MED
MSF
RO &ED/EDR
4,4006,100
58,700
Contract Value($ million)
MED
MSF
RO &ED/EDR
Source: Desaldata Forecast, June 2013
Desalination Forecast Drivers
26
• Industry rather than municipal is strongest driver• The Saudi Water Authority (SWCC) plans to invest $80b by
2025. (Arabianbusiness.com)
• Fastest growing economic regions also have the lowest amount of fresh water; India, China and the Middle East
• Copper (copper alloy desal tubes) release into the sea from Gulf Coast desal plants is becoming problematic and will drive future technology in favor of titanium.
• Titanium consumption is estimated to be in the 2000MT per year range with the possibility to grow to 3000MT by 2020.
Industries for Ti Consumption
27
• Energy Oil and gas Power Generation
• Chemical Processing NGL’s PTA Urea Chlorine / Caustic
• Desalination
Industries for Ti Consumption
28
• Others Mining Cathodic Protection Automotive Recreational Shipbuilding / Marine Architecture
Industrial Titanium Demand ForecastHistory and Forecast
29
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Met
ric T
ons
(x10
00)
Chemical Processing
Desalination
Oil & Gas
Power
Automotive
Metallurgy
Architecture
Shipbuilding
Rec & Other
* Does not include shipments within China and Russia.
Historical Forecast
VSMPO-AVISMA Corporation
Joint Venture
an
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