new directions in disaster studies
TRANSCRIPT
The Game Changes
David AlexanderUniversity College London
Prepare for our world as it is.
Alan Kurdi 2015
Science encourages us to look at realityselectively, not holistically: and yet
we must look at all sides of the problem.
Humanmisery
povertydisease epidemicsconflictdisplacementdisasters
Migrationcrisis
Disaster('natural',
technological, social. intentional)
What if...?
Disturbing trends
DISASTER
Destructiondamage casualties
Capital Labour
(fast) reformation (slower) repopulation
temporary boomin employmentReconstruction
Recoverycapital displaces labour
unemployment andsocial consequences
Slump
Recklesslending
Recklessborrowing
DEBT DEMOCRACY
Austerity
Inequality
Marginalisation
Disaffection
Disasterimpacts
Growingvulnerability
London would be a very resilient city wereit not for the high price of property.
• housing agenda over-influencedby foreign investment companies
• shortage of housing that isnot for investment purposes
• large portion of disposable income spenton housing, less for other purposes
• poor quality and vulnerable housingis a feature of the property market
• personal and family security reduced.
This situation leavespeople living on the margins of society.
For whom is resilience?
"Resilience" viewed as a form of oppressionNew Orleans, post-Katrina
the agenda of neo-liberal urbanism.
Capital is winning against labour:when will the tide turn?
Tax havens and world trade, inequality.
Mobilising Science toImplement the Sendai
FrameworkJan. 2016
• consolidate power structures
• augment profits, concentrate wealth
• allow introduction of convenientlyrepressive measures
• permit gratuitous social engineering.
The economic and socialVALUE of disasters
• it is not necessarily harmed by disaster
• does capital safeguard people or itself?
The cheapness and redundancy of labouris a form of disenfranchisement.
Capital as a resource fordisaster mitigation and recovery
The alternative economy• black: mafia, drugs, people trafficking,
armaments, vice, illegal investment• grey: person to person
Displacementand migration
Climate changeadaptation
Disaster responseand mitigation
Migrants
• refugees of war, conflict,torture and oppression
• "economic migrants"
• the displaced
• "opportunists" – e.g. myself.
Human mobility
Migration• voluntary (incentive)• induced (imperative)• forced [trafficked]
Human mobility• temporary (time-limited, limit unknown)• semi-permanent (time limit unknown)• permanent (emigration/immigration)• statelessness.
• a reaction to global hegemony
• wars and proxy wars -the struggle for power
• globalisation of productionand the exploitation of labour
• a reaction to the mobilityand concentration of capital.
Human mobility
Have we passed a threshold towardsa new organisation of society in whichhuman mobility is much more central
and important?
Time to re-examine notionsof geographical inertia.
Places remain, people move.
welfare mobility
sovereignty identity
entitlementproxy wars
?
What is welfare?
The provision ofcare to a minimumacceptable standardto people who areunable adequately to look afterthemselves.
But we also needto focus on what welfare is NOT...
Remittances: alternative welfareHaiti, Nepal, the Philippines
XenophobiaDistrust ofunfamiliar
people
CompassionDesireto helprefugees
RejectionismIt is not
our problemDistancingNot in myback yard
The role of mass cognitive dissonance
CharityWillingnessto donate
• prevalence of myths and misassumptions
• migration and evacuation
• informal settlements
• precarious livelihoods
• crises of leadership.
Some parallels between disaster risk reduction (DRR) and human mobility
Currently the links between DRR andhuman mobility are relatively slight.There are abundant opportunities forthem to become more significant and
powerful.
Antecedents: 1980 southern Italianearthquake and Italian Governmentpolicy on induced migration
Disaster and forced migration- in a surprising variety of contexts
Climate change Terrorism
Displacementand migration
Pandemicsand epidemics
Population increase
Env
iron
ment
al ch
ang
eConflict
Technologicaldisasters and
major incidents
'Natural'disasters
Justice system
Rights Responsibilities
Moral
Ethical
Legal
Constitution Disaster
Context of disaster
Conclusions
Since 1970 the world has changed indirections not mirrored in the concurrent
development of disaster theory.
Disaster Risk Reduction
or disaster risk creation?
• disaster risk reduction and climatechange adaptation will partially merge
• global mobility will become a majorfactor in disaster risk reduction
• resilience acquires a double meaning
• vulnerability remains a key concept
• sustainable DRR, sustainable lives.
The future
Three axioms
Axiom 1Disaster risk reduction (DRR) is about
vulnerability reduction and development.So is human mobility.
Riskamplification
factors
Riskmitigationfactors
Totalvulnerability
Risk perceptionfactors- +
positivenegative
DIALECTIC
BENIGN (healthy)at the service of the people
MALIGN (corrupt)at the service of vested interests
interplay dialectic
Justification Development
[spiritual, cultural, political, economic]
IDEOLOGY CULTURE
Axiom 2Climate change adaptation (CCA) is
about adapting to changing vulnerability.So is disaster risk reduction.
Axiom 3Climate change will be asource of human mobility.In a situation of general
instability, so will disaster.
Disaster as anegative windowof opportunity
But at the bottomthere was hope...
"Pandora's box"theory of disasters
