new approach for assessment of climate change vulnerability for wetlands … · 2018-11-25 ·...

New Approach for Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability for Wetlands in the Mekong Basin

Nguyen Van Duyen 1 and Chavalit Vidthayanon 2

1 EP Coordinator 2 Senior Aquatic Ecology Specialist

Mekong River Commission2nd Mekong Climate Change Forum

6 – 8 October 2014Siem Reap, Cambodia

Outlines Overview on Mekong wetlands, biodiversity and ecosystem services The project cycle and methodology Potential impacts of climate change on species/ habitats of wetland Process for adaptation management Approaching Wetland adaptation management Phasing adaptation wetland management planning Lessons Learned Conclusion

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Keywords: Mekong Basin, wetlands, climate change vulnerability assessment, adaptation



What is the point of all of this?

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Improved wetland conservation and management planning This methodology is not aimed at deep scientific study It aims to help wetland managers in how to adapt their

management plans to climate change Along with all the other threats that have to be managed It is a way of identifying the risks to the habitats and species

that make up the wetland



Regulating services

1. carbon sequestration

2. coast erosion protection

3. storm protection

4. water quality maintenance

5. flood control

6. natural disaster prevention

7. water purification

Provisioning services

1. Rice and other Agriculture2. Aquaculture3. Capture Fisheries4. Livestock5. Non-Timber Forest

Products6. Wildlife7. Wood for Construction8. Firewood and Charcoal9. Salt10. Hydropower11. Transportation12. Water Supply

Mekong Wetland Ecosystem Services

Including Supporting Servicesand Cultural Services

- Over 60 million of residents within in LMB- 80% of LMB population are in the rural areas- 40- 50 kg of fish as food per capita annually. - Over 3,600,000 mt/yr., more than entire USA

Freshwater fish products.- 62.6% main occupation related to aquatic system



Status of wetland management planning in LMB

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Most of the wetland sites in the Lower Mekong do not yet have active wetland management

Many sites are recognized as important Some have management plans that have not been

implementedAdaptation to climate change can provide a boost to

the development and implementation of better wetland management in the LMB



Ramsar Sites: Wetlands of International Importance

7 MRC’s Case study Wetland Sites

National Important Wetland Sites

Lower Mekong Basin’s Important Wetlands

Bueng Khong Long Ramsar Site

Tram Chim

Mui Ca Mau

Stung Treng Ramsar Site

Siphandon

Xe Champone Ramsar Site

Lower Stung Sen



Definition of adaptation plans

p

Projected baseline to 2050, considering other

developmentsp

Project concept and process



Three Phases to the approach

Sub-catchments

Basin wide

Wetland sites

Downscaling climate change scenarios and hydrological predictions

Case studies –vulnerability and adaptation

Upscaling of vulnerabilities & adaptation measures

1. Down-scaling from basin wide to sub-basin and local

2. Case studies of wetlands at local level

3. Up-scaling back to basin level

Workshop 1

Workshop 2

Workshop 3



The process for assessing the vulnerability and planning adaptationof wetlands to climate change



Identifying key vulnerability to wetlands from Climate Change

Wetland species are vulnerable to CC due to:• Their specialized habitat degradation• Their narrow environmental tolerances• CC disrupt environmental conditions which are crucial to their life cycles and • Many species have poor ability to avoid or move to new or more suitable range.

Vulnerability of Wetland Habitats:

• Flooded forests , grasslands and marshes are highly vulnerable when hydrographic behavior is disrupted by CC. • Sea level rise impacts lowland freshwater wetlands, mangroves and human livelihood directly• Higher altitude wetlands, as well as their species, are more vulnerable to temperature rise.• The ecosystem services decrease or cease wetland health degrades



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Vulnerability assessment process – exposure x sensitivity = impact.

Impact considered with adaptive capacity providesa measure of vulnerability



Amphibians and ReptilesClimate Change threat Exposure Sensitivity

Adaptive capacity

Vulnerability

Rana lateralis (Kiat leuang), Kokarit frog

Xe ChamphoneHotter dry conditions can result in

reduced soil moistureMEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM

Hoplobatracus rugulosus (Kop) (Chinese edible frog)

Xe ChamphoneLonger dry periods. Reduced

availability of suitable ponds for breeding

MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM

Polypedates leucomystax (khiat Tapad), White‐lipped treefrog,

SiphandoneLonger dry in early wet season when it breeds may have some impact on

its life cycle. MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM

Hoplobatracus rugolosus (Kop), East Asian bullfrog,


its life cycle. MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM

Calluella guttulata (Oung), Burmese squat frog,


its life cycle. LOW MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM

Varanus bengalensis (Len), Bengal monitor

Siphandone Increase in temperature MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM

Lieolepis reevessii (Ka thang), Butterfly lizard

SiphandoneIncrease in temperature; Increase in

extent of flooded areas MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM

WatersnakeLower Stung

Sen1) Increased extent of flooding 2)

Increased temperatureLOW LOW MEDIUM LOW

Siphandone

Dry years, late rains will be problematic. Stronger flood flows. Influence on sedimentation and

sandbars


Xe Champhone Increased temperature LOW MEDIUM LOW MEDIUMIndotestudo elongata, Yellow‐headed orElongated Tortoise

Xe Champhone Increased in flooded areas HIGH MEDIUM LOW HIGH

Crocodylus siamensis (Siamese crocodile)

Xe ChamphoneIncrease in temperature at end of

dry season, early wet seasonHIGH MEDIUM LOW HIGH

Amyda Cartilaginea (Pa fa ong), Asiatic softshell turtle,

Species

Amphibians

Reptiles

Amphibians generally medium vulnerability rising to high with other threats

Reptiles – medium vulnerability except for soft shell turtles and crocodiles which are highly vulnerable

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Results of species and habitat assessment



FishClimate Change threat Exposure Sensitivity

Adaptive capacity

Vulnerability

Species Site Name Description of key CC threats

Bagarius bagarius (Pakhe) Xe ChamphoneDelayed arrival of floods in river. Larger

extent of floodingMEDIUM LOW LOW HIGH

CyprinidsLower Stung

Sen

1) Increased extent of flooding; 2) Duration and timing of flooding; 3)

More sedimenationMEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM

Cirrhinus microlepis (Pruol) Stung Treng1) Increased dry seasons flow; 2) Changed flood pulse; 3) More

sediment associted with intense rainfall; MEDIUM MEDIUM LOW HIGH

Hemibagrus Wyckioides (Pakheung)

Xe ChamphoneDelayed arrival of floods in river. Larger

extent of floodingMEDIUM MEDIUM LOW HIGH

SiphandoneWater level does not always reach Tonle Sap in its spawn‐ing time, possibly a

bottle‐neckMEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM

Stung Treng1) Increased flow, esp in the wet season;

2) Change in timing of flood pulse; MEDIUM LOW MEDIUM LOW

Labio chrysophekadion (Paphia) Xe ChamphoneDelayed arrival of floods in river. Larger

extent of floodingMEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM

Micronema bleekeri (Gunther) Sheatfish

Songkhram river and floodplain

Increase in rainfall and rainfall intensity in wet season. Increase in temperature throughout the year. Longer hot period.

HIGH HIGH LOW HIGH

Pangasius sanitwongsei (Pa leuam) Chao Praya Giant catfish,

SiphandoneMigratory pathway via Khone Falls unlikely to be affected by CC..

LOW LOW MEDIUM LOW

Pangasianodon gigas (pa beuk), Giant catfish.

SiphandoneMigratory pathway of concern when

water level remains low in its migrat‐ory season


Probarbus jullieni (Pa eun ta deng), Golden carp,

SiphandoneMigratory pathway unlikely to be affect‐ted and has some adapt‐ive capacity

LOW LOW MEDIUM LOW

Probabus jullieni (Trasak) Stung Treng

1) Increased flow in both seasons; 2) Changed flood pulse and timing; 3) Changed rainfall; 4) Increased

temperature;

MEDIUM MEDIUM LOW HIGH

Wallago leerii (Pa khoun) SiphandoneMigratory pathway of concern when

water level remains low in its migratory season

LOW MEDIUM MEDIUM LOW

Channa spp. Snakehead fishLower Stung

Sen1) Increased extent of flooding; 2)

Increased temperatureLOW LOW MEDIUM LOW

Clarias batrachus (Walking catfish )

Kaeng La Wa

Increase in daytime temperature and number of hot days. Increase in rainfall and rainfall intensity.Longer & more

severe droughts

HIGH HIGH MEDIUM HIGH

Hampala dispar (Eye Spot Barb) Kaeng La Wa

Increase in daytime temperature and number of hot days. Increase in rainfall and rainfall intensity.Longer & more

severe droughts

HIGH HIGH LOW HIGH

Osteochilus hasseltiSongkhram river and floodplain

Increase in rainfall and rainfall intensity in wet season. Increase in temperature throughout the year. Longer hot period.

HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH

Fish Tram Chim

Increased TemperatureLow flood peaks

Increased erratic rainfallLate start of flood season

MEDIUM HIGH LOW HIGH

Non‐migratory fish (generalist + black fish)

Fish

Rank (High, Medium, Low)Migratory fish (white fish)

Henicorhynchus spp.(Pasoi, 3 sps.) (Trey Riel)

Migratory fish generally high to medium vulnerability

Non-migratory fish highly vulnerable

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Overall vulnerability of wetland types

High elevation moist

broadleaf forest

Mid elevation moist

broadleaf forest

Mid elevation dry broadleaf

forest

Low elevation moist

broadleaf forest

Low elevation dry broadleaf

forest

Floodplain or lake

Swamp forest Mangrove or

delta

Siphandone 2,3 Med (T)

Stung Treng 2,2 Med (T)

Lower Songkhram 2,1 B Med (P)

Xe Champhone 3,2 Med (T)

Lower Stung Sen 2,2 Med (T)

Tram Chim 2,1A Med (T)

Swamp/Woody scrub Lower Stung Sen 2,2 Med (T)

Kaeng La Wa 3,1 Low



Peat land Xe Champhone 3,2 Med (T)

Kaeng La Wa 3,1 Low


Xe Champhone (oxbo 3,2 Med (T)

Lower Songkhram 2,1B Med (P)



Saline Lakes > 8ha

Lower Songkhram 2,1B Med (P)


Lower Stung sen 2,2 Med (T)

Siphandone 2,3 Med (T)

Stung Treng 2,2 Med (T)

Saltmarsh

Intertidal lagoon

Watercourse (estuarine) Mui Ca Mau 2,1A Low

Estuarine & marine ‐ non‐vegetated Mui Ca Mau 2,1A Low

Mangrove (estuarine and marine) Mui Ca Mau 2,1A Low

Wetland type distribution Vulnerability

High

Medium

Low

Wet "Lands"

Open Water

Flowing water

Estuarine, coastal and marine

Wetland category Case studyClimate zone

Ecological Zone

Marsh and grassland

Flooded forest

Ponds <8ha

Lakes >8 ha

Climate change exposure

Wetland type not represented in ecozone

Wetland type small area in ecozone

Wetland type in ecozone, but not represented in case study site

Riverine ‐ natural channels (Mekong mainstream)

Riverine ‐ natural channels (tributaries)

The highest CC vulnerable habitats are:

•Dry broadleaf forests• Floodplains• Swamp forests• Mangrove and delta



Climate change entry points for Wetland threat and exposure

•Increase in flood magnitude and volume•Increase flood duration•Shortening of transition seasons•Increase in dry season water levels•Disaster flooding and drought will spread and promote invasive species to wider areas of wetlands

The hydrological regimeTemperature

Coastlines and deltas

Wetland Habitats

Identifying the key threats to wetlands from Climate Change



• Unsustainable practices (eg. overfishing, habitat destruction)

• Demographicpressures (eg. population growth)

• Conversion of land to other uses

• Pollution and water quality and quantity (eg. use of pesticide in some cases, drying up of some small stream in the dry season)

• Natural variability (eg. floods, droughts)

Stress (from sources to sea) identified include:

Multiple scenario of stress include:• Loss of access to common property resources,

Especially WATER

• Decline of fisheries: Food Security

• Loss of livelihoods opportunity

• Forest degradation

• Loss of biodiversity

• Food and water insecurity

• Health and diseases

Synergistic vulnerabilities



Understanding other impacts

1. Continue supporting management and research activities

2. Links to aquatic foodweb3. Links to livelihoods4. Trade-offs between ecosystem services and

development



Process for adaptation management

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Identifying the climate change threats

Existing climate – also use past extreme events

Existing hydrological functions

Application of climate models to downscale the climate predictions

Identifying the habitats, species and ecosystem services most at risk

Different wetland habitats within the site.

Framework wetland species that characterize the site

Ecosystem services

Social, cultural and economic aspects

Use steps for assessing

Exposure

Sensitivity

Adaptive capacity

Clearly identifying the objectives for management of the wetland



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1. Review the most vulnerable assets

2. Lookng back to define the impacts which require

adaptation responses

3. Defining the adaptation options

4. Setting prioritities among options

5. Integrating adaptation priorities

6. Building adaptation packages

into plans and projects

Adaptation planning process

To identify (i) the assets which have been assessed as most vulnerable in the CAM VA process and (ii) the threats to which those assets are most vulnerable

For the most vulnerable assets ‐ identify the most significant impacts which will require adaptation responses

For each vulnerable assets define a range of adaptation options for the species group, habitats, ecosystems which address the most significant impacts

Defining which options (i) are most important, (ii) have the greatest chances of success, (iii) are feasible, (iv) do not have negative effects on other sectors or other adaptations (now or in future).

Also, identifying the order of adaptation and needed phasing – or what needs to be done now and what can be left to later

Identifying synergies and needed linkages between adaptation priorities.

For each priority define key activities

Integrate priorities as adaptation packages or projects

Prepare strategy for “mainstreaming” into development plans and policies.

Preparing Design Management Frameworks for each priority



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Dealing with “adaptation deficit”

Adaptation deficit includes those things which government or communities need to do to safeguard their assets against existing climate extremes and variability, in the light of past experience.



Adaptation Responses and Feedback

Approaching Wetland adaptation management



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Adaptation approaches

Act now for lifetime adaptation (New approach)

Plan for phasedadaptation over several management plan cycles

Progressive modification

Don’t act now ‐ repair later Cheapest up-front option but comes with the largest risk and potential cost.

Climate changes will force re-design costs and investments for reconstruction to avoid catastrophic failure.

Long term security is dependent on actual climate change not exceeding the prediction

Investment required during management planning cycle.

Expected implications

Four Approaches to Design of Adaptation Measures



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LONG‐TERMMEDIUM‐LONG TERMSHORT TERM

Operational and maintenance responses

Retrofitting and rehabilitation of existing infrastructures

Infrastructures retirement and new developmentProtective infrastructuresClimate‐appropriate energy & transport infrastructures

Phasing adaptation



Tasks of wetland management planning

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To identify the objectives of site management To identify factors that affect or may affect the wetland features To resolve conflicts To define monitoring requirements To identify and describe the management required to achieve the objectives To maintain continuity of effective management To obtain resources To enable communication within and between sites, organizations and

stakeholders To demonstrate that management is effective and efficient To ensure compliance with local, national and international policies.



• Habitat information lacking-: There is limited information and understanding about climate change and its impacts on the wetland ecosystems.• More biodiversity experts needed: because of the lack of habitat and species information.• Management issue: in some cases, the mandate for wetland management is not clear.• More comparative data needed: comparison between case study sites, and other wetlands currently under different climate or management regimes.• Species selected: should also include keystone and economically important species not just endangered species.• More time is needed: this was a complicated case study and even rapid assessments need time to study the literature and talk to the appropriate experts.

Lessons Learned for Mekong wetland and climate change assessment :



•. Wetland adaptation cannot be separated from wetland management

• Wetland adaptation is a progressive activity, consisting of small, planned precautionary steps

• National and provincial adaptation measures should focus on providing support at the local levels. Providing the appropriate policy and institutional frameworks that incorporates adaptation to CC.

• The Regional level, should focus on providing support and guidance for the national level agencies, through the development and standardization of methods, guidelines and manuals and the maintenance of databases.

Conclusions

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Thank you

new approach for assessment of climate change vulnerability for wetlands … · 2018-11-25 ·...

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