Mekong Protected Areas Resilience to Climate

ChangeMay 2012

Protected area safeguard natural resilience to climate change in agro-ecological systems

“natural resilience” represents the capacity for species and natural habitats to maintain viable populations and avoid significant extinction risk despite climate change.

Bio-diverse systems are naturally resilient. Protected areas:• maintain viable populations of species;• conserve blocks of natural habitat large enough to resist large-scale

disturbances and long-term changes• provide refuges and migration corridors (ie room to move when

conditions change);

Other pressures constraint movement of species, habitat and genes.

Protected area are an essential economic development strategy for the agriculture sector with climate change

PA development footprint Zones of economic influence

Protected area development footprintProducts and services

Protected areas, agriculture and livelihoods

Protected areas and sustainable agriculture

Food security Genetic biodiversity of crops and animals (wild species, pollinators, and

crop wild relatives) Food and livelihood products (fish, NTFPs, timber etc) Safety net for livelihoods and subsistence during extreme events and

seasons.

Ecosystem services Water supply and regulation Microclimate maintenance and regulation Habitat for crop pollinators and crop pest predators Maintenance of soil biodiversity Natural buffer for extreme events

• Reducing vulnerability to floods, droughts and other weather-induced problems;

Protected areas in the Lower Mekong Basin

Key issues for resilience: Size Connections Representativeness

LMB PA trends

During the 1990’s:• The number of PAs increased rapidly• The total PA coverage as a % of national land area

increased rapidly

And since then• The increases in nationally established PAs halted • The number and coverage of locally established and

management PAs continues to increase• The national natural forest estate is shrinking - increasing

% of remaining natural forest falls within PAs • Relatively few PAs and little coverage in floodplains, deltas

and aquatic systems (fresh and marine)

Growth in Pas (% of national land area)

Proposed additions

Protected areas in the LMB

Cambodia

Lao PDR Thailand Vietnam

Pas as a % of land area

21% 21% 19% 8%

% of national PA system managed at local levels

1% 100% 2% 94%

Forests in existing and proposed PAs as a % of total forest area

40% 39% 65% 26%

KEY DRIVERS OF CHANGE TO PROTECTED AREAS

REDUCING NATURAL RESILIENCE

Forces reducing natural resilience

Drivers of change are:• Population pressures (land use activities, primarily livestock grazing,

hunting, logging, subsistence activities and encroachment)• Development pressures (roads, land conversion, irrigation, hydropower,

logging and fringe agriculture)

Threats to natural resilience in the Mekong region include: • Land clearing and fragmentation of core habitats and migration corridors;• Livestock grazing, hunting and logging; • Changed hydrology and extraction of water• Invasive weeds and animals;• Inappropriate fire regimes (intensities, frequencies and timings).

Population/agriculture - natural systems use cycle

% losses in area of original forest, wetlands and marine systems

Cambodia Lao PDR Thailand Vietnam

Forest 48% 46% 71% 75%

Wetlands 45% 30% 96% 99%

Mangroves 15% NA 84% 37%

Coral reefs*

100% NA 77% 96%

* Severely threatened by human activities

Only 2-10% of remaining original forests is relatively undisturbed

Protected areas and demographics

• Protected areas tend to fall in the least populated and less accessible locations (with roads and hyrdo-power this is changing rapidly)

• 80% of protected areas are situated in regions of medium to high poverty incidence;

• There is increasing migration towards protected areas and regions of biodiversity wealth;

• Populations within and around PAs are increasing along with natural resource demand and,

• There is a direct correlation between population density and the level of community pressure on protected areas.

15

Population per province – Lower Mekong Basin

16

Forests and wetlands – Lower Mekong Basin

17

Poverty incidence – Lower Mekong Basin

PROTECTED AREAS IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Protected areas and sea level rise

PAs and sea level rise

Potential effects of climate change

Biological effects (ecosystems, species dynamics): Increased or decreased growth related to temperature, CO2 and moisture

tolerances of individual species Change in ecosystem composition and local food webs Changes in biological processes – flowering times, reproductive cycles,

migration routes, Shifts in species distribution Opportunities for invasive species and pests to flourish Extinctions Disruption to ecosystem services such as pollination, soil conservation, water

supply and regulation, micro climate

TASK 2 APPROACH

Task 2 assessment steps

1. Document importance of protected areas to agro-ecological systems

2. Overlay climate change on LMB protected areas system

3. Identify protected areas most exposed

4. Assess impact of climate change on PA ecology (habitat and framework species?)

5. Assess impact on linked agro-ecological systems

6. Propose adaptation options

BUFFERING AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE

Buffering against climate change

• Identify and protect climate refugia; • Conserve large-scale migration corridors; • Maintain viable populations• Reduce threatening processes at the landscape scale; • Conserve natural processes and connectivity at the landscape

scale; and– Increase PA size to ensure populations can absorb higher

levels of disturbance; and– Enhance conservation outside PAs.

• Special interventions to avert extinctions.

Protected areas safeguard representative examples of biodiversity

1. Zone of original habitat

2. Zones of remaining habitat

3. Critical areas