nevada labor market briefing: september 2014

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency

Nevada Labor Market Briefing:September 2014

Department of Employment, Training & Rehabilitation

Don Soderberg, Director

Dennis Perea, Deputy Director

Bill Anderson, Chief Economist

Prepared by the Research and Analysis Bureau


State Unemployment Rate

7.3% Unemployment Rate (SA1) Down 0.3 percentage point from August; down from

9.6% a year ago Off from a recession peak of 13.9% The unemployment rate has declined or held steady, relative

to the prior month, for 39 straight months Lowest reading since July 2008

Compares to a 5.9% rate for the U.S.—1.4 points higher Lowest differential since mid-2008

1seasonally adjusted


Unemployment Rate at 7.3%; Lowest Since July 2008NV vs. the U.S. Unemployment Rate (SA)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

NV U.S.


Long-Term Unemployment Half of PeakNevadans Unemployed for 27+ Weeks (CPS data; 12-month moving average)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14


Unemployment Rates Down in Every County Over RecoveryRatio of Sept. 2014 Rate to Sept. 2010

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Eureka

Mineral

Lincoln

Elko

Pershing

Humboldt

Lander

White Pine

Carson City

Churchill

Lyon

Nevada

Douglas

Washoe

Clark

Nye

Storey

Esmeralda


FT Employment Rises; PT Holds SteadyFull-Time vs. Part-Time Employment (CPS data; 12-month moving average)

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

Full-Time Part-Time


State Employment (SA)

Non-Farm Job Levels Up 38,200 Relative to a Year Ago 3.2% gain compares to 1.9% in the nation 45 consecutive months of year-over-year gains

Down -1,800 Over the Month 8,600 (NSA2) jobs were expected to be added based

upon historical trends, but 6,800 were actually added, resulting in the seasonally adjusted decline

2nd consecutive monthly decline…estimation model may be correcting for over-estimates during prior months

2not seasonally adjusted


NV Adds 38,200 Jobs Relative to Year-Ago; Trending up for 45 monthsNonfarm Jobs in Nevada (SA)

1,000,000

1,050,000

1,100,000

1,150,000

1,200,000

1,250,000

1,300,000

1,350,000

1,400,000

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14


Job Growth Hovering in 3-4% Range the Past Year; Some Signs of EasingJob Growth (SA; year-over-year)

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S

2012 2013 2014

perc

ent c

hange

jobs

Jobs Pct. Change


NV on Pace to Add Close to 100K Jobs Since 2010Nevada Job Growth Since 2010

Total(Private+Public) Private Sector

2010 Baseline 1,117,800 964,000

Calculation of 2011 Growth2011 1,125,700 975,500Growth from 2010 7,900 11,500

Calculation of 2012 Growth2012 1,144,800 995,500Growth from 2011 19,100 20,000

Calculation of 2013 Growth2013 1,175,700 1,024,700Growth from 2012 30,900 29,200

Calculation of 2014 Year-to-Date Growth2013 Year-to-Date (through September) 1,167,600 1,017,5002014 Year-to-Date (through September) 1,209,400 1,058,800Year-to-Date Growth from 2013 41,800 41,300

Total Growth Since 2010 (2011 Growth + 2012 Growth + 2013 Growth + 2014 YTD Growth) 99,700 102,000


Job Gains > Losses in 13 Straight Qtrs.Business Employment Dynamics: Private Sector Gross Job Gains vs. Gross Job Losses (SA)

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13

gross job gains gross job losses


Opening Gains > Closing LossesBusiness Employment Dynamics: Gross Job Gains vs. Gross Losses in New & Closing Establishments (SA)

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13

gains from openings losses from closings


Nearly All Sectors Contributing; PBS Leads the Way; Construction up 6,100YTD Job Growth by Sector

-2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000

Mining & Logging

Government

Other Services

Financial Activities

Manufacturing

Education & Health Services

Construction

Trade, Transportation, & Utilities

Leisure & Hospitality

Professional & Business Services


Seasonal Holiday Hiring Could Approach Last Year’s 13,500September-December Growth in Trade/Transportation Jobs

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13


NV Jobs up 3.6% Through First 9 mos. This Year; Double Growth in the USJob Growth (year-over-year)

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 YTD

NV U.S.


Job Growth Stronger Than in 48 StatesQCEW Job Growth Rankings (# of states with slower private sector job growth than NV; 2014 YTD through IQ)

50 49

46

14

20 0

14

24

38

48

0

10

20

30

40

50

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 YTD


Small Business Adding Employment Since 2010Employment in Establishments with less than 100 Workers

450,000

470,000

490,000

510,000

530,000

550,000

570,000

590,000

610,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


Affordable Care Act: No Anecdotal Evidence that Businesses are ShrinkingBusinesses Crossing the 50-Employee Threshold (2013-2014)

Business Size Relative to the 50-Employee ACA Threshold Number of BusinessesStayed Above 3,773 Stayed Below 52,764 Fell Below 271 Rose Above 345 Total 57,153


For Additional Information, Please Contact:

Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation

Research and Analysis Bureau

Bill Anderson

Chief Economist

[email protected]

(775) 684-0450

http://www.nevadaworkforce.com

follow us on Twitter @nvlabormarket

nevada labor market briefing: september 2014

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