netflix stock forecast for 2015 based on a predictive algorithm
TRANSCRIPT
Netflix Stock Forecast For
2015
Seeking Alpha Article
Company History
Founded in 1997 and introduce monthly subscription rate in 1999
Introduced video on demand in 2007 at a time of increased broadband capability and the growth of streaming-capable devices.
The stock price increased from around $35 in March 2009 to $304.79 in July of 2011
Announced decision to split up DVD shipping and streaming services, amounting to price increase of 60%
Lost 800,000 subscribers in next quarter, causing stock price to fall to about $75 in October of 2011
International expansion and content costs ate into profitability, making stock price stagnant
Recent Events
Stock price skyrocketed in 2013 after halting international expansion and
original content earning critical acclaim
Company raised streaming price in May 2014, causing 3Q earnings report to
come in below expectations
Resumed international expansion and investors became worried about content
costs once again
Stock price fell 20% much like in 2011
Price increase not as severe, international expansion starting to pay off
Content costs necessary evil to be market leader
I Know First Prediction
Learn how to read the forecast
The signal is positive in all three time horizons
How To Read The Prediction
Two indicators:
Signal – Predicted movement of the asset
Predictability Indicator – Historical correlation between the prediction and the
actual market movement
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Conclusion
Netflix has a positive signal in the one-month, three-month, and one-year time
horizons
The recent drop in the stock price is strikingly similar to the one it experienced
in 2011
When consumer growth returns to regular growth, the stock price will rebound
The profit margins will be held down by international expansion and content
costs, but these will pay off in the long run
I Know First is bullish for Netflix in the long-term, believing the stock price will
reach and surpass its previous price level
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Netflix Stock Forecast For 2015 Based On A Predictive Algorithm
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