Nebraska Sustainability Leadership Workshop

Energy:How Our Future Will Look Different,

and What We Can Do About It.

Daniel LawseEnergy Outreach Associate

Neighborhood Center, Omaha

www.lastoilshock.comwww.lastoilshock.com

Oil producers (98)

• After peaking of global oil production, After peaking of global oil production, exports cease exports cease in only nine yearsin only nine years, far faster , far faster than overall oil production.than overall oil production.

• Exports decline at an Exports decline at an accelerating rateaccelerating rate, , starting at about -13% and ending at about starting at about -13% and ending at about -48%, averaging about -29% per year over -48%, averaging about -29% per year over the 8 years of decline.the 8 years of decline.

• Only about 10% of the oil produced after the Only about 10% of the oil produced after the peak is ever exported!peak is ever exported!

• It’s not the size of the tank which matters, It’s not the size of the tank which matters, but the size of the tap.but the size of the tap.

• We are now at, or “close enough” to the We are now at, or “close enough” to the peak.peak.

• Oil production in the U.S. is well past its Oil production in the U.S. is well past its peak and is in long-term decline.peak and is in long-term decline.

• Oil shale: the fuel of the future…and it Oil shale: the fuel of the future…and it always will be.always will be.

• ANWR and the continental shelf are no ANWR and the continental shelf are no panacea.panacea.

• Oil prices aren’t all about us.Oil prices aren’t all about us.• Depletion is relentless.Depletion is relentless.• Expectations for the future are shrinking.Expectations for the future are shrinking.• Improved technology cannot move the peak.Improved technology cannot move the peak.

— —Chris Nelder,Chris Nelder,Steve AndrewsSteve Andrews

ASPO-USAASPO-USA

““Predictions are always difficult, Predictions are always difficult, especially about the future.”especially about the future.”

——Neils BohrNeils Bohr

Quantum physicistQuantum physicist

““The world has never faced a problem The world has never faced a problem like this. Without massive mitigation…like this. Without massive mitigation…

the problem will be pervasive and will not the problem will be pervasive and will not be temporary. Previous energy transitions be temporary. Previous energy transitions

were gradual and evolutionary. were gradual and evolutionary. Oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary.”Oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary.”

The Hirsch ReportThe Hirsch ReportU.S. Department of EnergyU.S. Department of Energy

February 2005February 2005

““It is quite likely that the time interval before It is quite likely that the time interval before the global peak occurs will be briefer than the global peak occurs will be briefer than

the period required for societies the period required for societies to adapt themselves painlessly to adapt themselves painlessly to a different energy regime.”to a different energy regime.”

——Richard HeinbergRichard HeinbergPeak Everything:Peak Everything:

Waking Up to a Century of DeclinesWaking Up to a Century of Declines

• Expect oil prices to be in dynamic movement.Expect oil prices to be in dynamic movement.• Conservatively, plan for US$100/barrel by 2010, Conservatively, plan for US$100/barrel by 2010,

but don't be surprised if a recession somewhere but don't be surprised if a recession somewhere drops price back to US$50, for a short while, or drops price back to US$50, for a short while, or sudden war in the Middle East sends prices sudden war in the Middle East sends prices skyrocketing.skyrocketing.

• Expect the fundamentals of fading supply Expect the fundamentals of fading supply growth and growing demand to push prices ever growth and growing demand to push prices ever higher in the 5 year horizon, perhaps well higher in the 5 year horizon, perhaps well beyond US$200/barrel.beyond US$200/barrel.

““We have at most ten years—not ten years We have at most ten years—not ten years to decide upon action, but ten years to alter to decide upon action, but ten years to alter

fundamentally the trajectory of global fundamentally the trajectory of global greenhouse emissions.”greenhouse emissions.”

——James HansenJames HansenDirectorDirector

Goddard Institute for Space Studies, NASAGoddard Institute for Space Studies, NASA

““The second half of the Age of Oil now dawns The second half of the Age of Oil now dawns and will be marked by the decline of oil and and will be marked by the decline of oil and

all that depends on it, including financial all that depends on it, including financial capital. It heralds the collapse of the present capital. It heralds the collapse of the present

financial system, and the related political financial system, and the related political structures… I am speaking of a second Great structures… I am speaking of a second Great

Depression.”Depression.”

Colin Campbell, Ph.D.Colin Campbell, Ph.D.ASPO Conference 2003ASPO Conference 2003

““The world oil production peak represents an The world oil production peak represents an unprecedented economic crisis that will wreak unprecedented economic crisis that will wreak

havoc on national economies, topple havoc on national economies, topple governments, alter national boundaries, governments, alter national boundaries, provoke military strife, and challenge the provoke military strife, and challenge the

continuation of civilized life.”continuation of civilized life.”

James Howard KunstlerJames Howard KunstlerThe Long EmergencyThe Long Emergency

PEAK OILPEAK OIL

GLOBALGLOBALWARMINGWARMING

ECONOMIC ECONOMIC INSTABILITYINSTABILITY

CHALLENGESCHALLENGES

&&

OPPORTUNITIESOPPORTUNITIES

American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA) Opportunities for Public Power in Energy Efficiency

Jeff Genzer Duncan, Weinberg, Genzer & Pembroke, P.C.1615 M Street, N.W., Suite 800Washington, DC 20036(202) 467-6370jcg@dwgp.com

Introduction

Key contacts:• Department of Energy, in charge of stimulus:

– Matt Rogers• Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Office at DOE:

– Gil Sperling

The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA) provides billions of dollars in new funding for energy efficiency and smart grid programs.

State Energy Program• $3.1 billion provided for State Energy Program (SEP)

– SEP received $44 million in federal fiscal year 2008– Funds provided to state energy offices– Governors must send letter to Energy Secretary Chu regarding utility regulatory policies

on energy efficiency and upgrading of building energy efficiency codes

• Funding can be used for a wide variety of programs, projects & policies, including: – Energy efficiency– Renewable energy– Alternative transportation programs

• ARRA waived a 20% cost share for the states and also waived a regulatory provision that limited capital investments to 50% of SEP funds.

• Operated by the Office of Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs (OWIP) within the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE).

• Find your state energy director at www.naseo.org

Energy Efficiency and Conservation Block Grant• $3.2 billion is provided for the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Block Grant

(EECBG)– EECBG had not previously been funded

• $400 million of the $3.2 billion will be distributed through a competitive program among state, local and tribal entities

– Cooperative/coordinated proposals encouraged

• Of the remaining $2.8 billion, funds will be distributed:– 68% directly to over 1700 of the larger cities in the U.S.– 16% through the states to counties of under 200,000 and towns of under 35,000

• Funds must be distributed within 6 months of DOE approval of a plan

– 12% directly to state energy offices for SEP– 2% for competitive program, likely to be added to $400 million noted above– 2% available to tribes

• Operated by OWIP under EERE

• Contact your state energy office, and coordinate with your statewide Mayor’s group

Weatherization Assistance Program

• $5 billion is provided for the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP)– WAP received $227 million in federal fiscal year 2008

• ARRA statutory changes:– Amount that can be spent on each home increased from $2,500 to $6,500, to

allow more comprehensive energy efficiency measures to be implemented– Eligibility increased to 200% of poverty, from 150% of poverty

• Statutory preference for community action agencies to serve as delivery agents for WAP, but to expand the program, local government coordination and/or delivery is expected

• National Association for Community Services Programs (NASCSP) coordinates state-level program managers

• National Community Action Foundation (NCAF) represents community action agencies

Energy Star Appliance Rebates Program

• $300 million is provided to state energy offices to provide rebates to encourage consumers to purchase Energy Star appliances– Program has not previously been funded

• Program requires a 50% match

• Contact your state energy office

Smart Grid• $4.4 billion is provided for investments in the “smart grid,” as authorized

by Title XIII of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA)– Expected to include advanced metering and demand response equipment, as

well as other measures

• Funding open to utilities (including public power, cooperatives and investor-owned utilities) and “other parties” involved in smart grid development

• 50% cost-sharing requirement, including regional demonstrations, utility scale energy storage demonstrations, etc.

• Operated by the DOE Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability

• Additional $100 million allocated through this office for “Green Jobs” initiative

Energy RDD&D

• $2.5 billion is provided to the Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Division for Research, Development, Demonstration and Deployment Programs– $800 million for biomass – $400 million for geothermal– DOE is allocating funds for a variety of other uses (e.g.,

industrial energy efficiency programs)

• Potential source of matching funds

Green Jobs

• $500 million is provided for the “Green Jobs” initiatives created by Section 1001 and 1002 of EISA

• Funds to be spend on initiating a worker training program for energy efficiency and renewable energy

• Separate national and state energy training partnerships to be created

• Operated by the Department of Labor

• $100 million also provided for worker training under the Smart Grid initiative

HUD Assisted Housing• $2.25 billion is provided for the HOME Investment Partnerships

Program at HUD

• Funds are provided to state housing finance agencies for low-income housing

– The program encourages funding for energy efficient and environmentally friendly designs

• $250 million is provided for energy retrofit and green investments for certain kinds of low-income housing

• $2.25 billion is provided more generally for project-based rental assistance

• $1 billion provided is provided for the Public Housing Capital Fund for competitive grants

– Includes investments that leverage private sector funding or financing for renovations and energy conservation retrofit investments

Clean Cities and Plug-in Electric Vehicles

• $300 million is provided for the Clean Cities Program– Program has previously been funded at much lower levels– Funds available to states, local governments and metropolitan

transportation agencies for up to 30 geographically dispersed vehicle demonstrations

– Supports alternative fuel vehicles, neighborhood electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles, ultra low sulfur diesel vehicles, acquisition and installation of fueling infrastructure, etc.

– 50% cost-sharing requirement– Applications due March 31, 2009

• $400 million is provided for transportation electrification for local, metropolitan transportation agencies and state grants for qualified electric transportation projects– Can be used for truck stop electrification, etc.

Schools

• No specific funding for energy efficiency in schools– Suggests schools should be modernized

“consistent with a recognized green building rating system”

Federal Buildings

• $4.5 billion is provided to the General Services Administration for high performance green buildings

• $3.24 billion is provided to the Department of Defense to “repair and modernize facilities, restore and modernize real property and invest in the energy efficiency of facilities”

• $1 billion is provided to the Veterans Administration for “non-recurring maintenance including energy projects”

• $220 million is provided for military construction energy projects

• If you have any federal facilities in your service area, you may be able to work with those agencies on these projects

Taxes• Existing homes energy efficiency tax credit raised from 10% to

30%, capped at $1,500

• Clean Renewable Energy Bonds increased to $2.4 billion– 1/3 dedicated to qualified projects for public power

• Qualified Energy Conservation Bonds increased to $3.2 billion

• Credits for plug-in electric drive motor vehicles include:– 10% for low-speed vehicles (up to $2,500)– 10% for plug-in vehicles conversions using battery modules up to

4 kWh (up to $4,000)– Capped at $7,500