Date: 08-08-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

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NCML COMMODITY MARKET MONITOR

Sugar | Cotton | Soybean | RM Seed | Castor seed | Turmeric | Jeera | Groundnut

OUTLOOK

OTHER DATA Sowing progress | Monsoon Situation | Advance estimates | Kharif MSP

ANSWERS & WINNERS OF PREVIOUS WEEK’S QUIZ

WEEKLY QUIZ QUESTIONS 1. The price of which commodity in this report is currently at its lowest level since October

2016? Write India’s total production of this commodity in 2016-17. 2. The government has recently set an upper limit of two lakh metric tonnes on import of which

commodity? Name any 2 countries from where India mainly imports this commodity.

Participate in our weekly quiz based on this report. Email precise answers at research@ncml.com and get a chance to win Amazon gift coupons.

Winners will be announced in next report and rewarded.

Date: 08-08-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Fundamentals- Domestic & International

Price Trend & Technicals

14000

16000

18000

20000

22000

24000

No

v-15

De

c-15

Feb

-16

Ap

r-16

Jun

-16

Jul-1

6

Se

p-1

6

No

v-16

Jan

-17

Mar

-17

Ap

r-17

Jun

-17

Au

g-1

7

Cotton - 29 mm - Rajkot

Cotton - 29 mm - Rajkot

COTTON

Cotton prices remained lacklustre during the last couple of weeks

as well. Higher sowing acreage and higher production expectations

is preventing prices from showing any positivity and lower stocks

and crop damage expectation will be limiting the downside in the

days ahead. Ra 20190 – 20600 is the trading band which the price

has to breach on either side to show further momentum. In coming

couple of weeks prices are expected to trade with a sideways

undertone witin this range. A push from the fundamental front is

required for prices to gather any fresh movement. News of crop

damage from Gujarat can infuse some positivity to the prices

pushing it towards Rs 20600-21000 levels.

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

19800 20190 20389 20650 21000

Outlook: Prices will trade sideways witin the range of Rs 20600-20200.

• With the extent of crop damage due to floods yet unclear, the industry continues to be positive about the cotton output and estimates a rise of

atleast 10% in cotton production over last year on back of high acreage. India’s 2016-17 cotton production stood at 33.63 million bales in 2016/17.

• As per the August press release of International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), India is expected to remain the world’s largest producer in

2017/18 with output increasing by 6% to 6.1 million tons (approx. 36 million bales).

• The trade sources however have added that the stock position of cotton is weak at present and if fresh arrivals don't start in time during

September, the prices can show short term rally despite a good production outlook.

• India’s cotton exports in 2016-17 are estimated to have declined by 17% over 2015-16. CAI has estimated the exports to touch 60 lakh bales in the

ongoing cotton season against 72 lakh bales of cotton exported in 2015-16 due to China shifting its imports to US, whose exports are rebounding

on a weaker dollar. The ICAC has projected a marginal recovery of 2% in India’s cotton exports in 2017-18. Overall export of cotton textiles from

India too declined in 2016-17 compared to the previous two fiscals.

• Higher production forecasts of other countries as well as a strong rupee mean that the chances of significant recovery in exports are less. India’s

cotton imports, estimated at an all-time high of 30 lakh bales in 2016-17 against 20 lakh bales in 2015-16 are likely to fall in the coming season.

• ICAC has projected the world cotton production to increase by 8% to 24.9 million tons due to an 8% expansion in world cotton area to 31.7 million

hectares. After falling by 6% in 2016/17, China’s production is projected to rebound by 7% to 5.2 million tons. Production in the United States is

expected to rise significantly by 10% to 4.1 million tons due to increase in cotton area by 18% to 4.5 million hectares.

• Overall score of 2.9 shows consolidation in the cotton prices.

Fundamental Summary

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5)*

Significantly higher cotton area sown Bearish 25% 2

Floods in Gujarat that may affect the cotton crop Bullish 10% 4

Increase in output expected despite erratic weather Bearish 20% 2

Weak stock postion of cotton and lower production estimates of 2016-17

Bullish 20% 4

Strong mill demand Bullish 15% 4

Weak export prospects due high US and global production estimates in 2017-18 and strong rupee

Bearish 10% 2

Overall fundamental score 2.9

*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5.Bullish

• Heavy rains and floods in Gujarat have left an estimated 50,000 cotton

farms waterlogged. Even as waters recedes and resowing commences in

damaged areas, chances of pest attacks have increased due to excess

moisture content. Infrastructure damage has added to the farmer woes.

• Meanwhile the area sown under cotton has climbed to 114.34 lakh ha till 4

Aug 2017, 18% higher than 96.48 lakh ha sown till the same date last year &

7.11% higher than normal area till date. The acreage mainly gained from the

loss in Tur & oilseeds.

BACK TO TOP

Mandi Price in Rs/ Qtl.

04-08-2017 28-07-2017 %change

Akola (29 mm) 12035 12120 -0.70

Rajkot (29 mm) 11992 12016 -0.20

Abohar (28 mm) 11192 11196 -0.04

Date: 08-08-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Price Trend & Technicals

2100

2400

2700

3000

3300

3600

3900

De

c-13

Ap

r-14

Au

g-1

4

De

c-14

Ap

r-15

Au

g-1

5

De

c-15

Ap

r-16

Au

g-1

6

De

c-16

Ap

r-17

Au

g-1

7

Sugar - M-grade : MuzaffarnagarPrices after slipping from the highs stabilized after testing the short

term support levels of Rs 3680. Now this level can be considered as the

short term floor to the prices. The modest recovery that the prices have

seen over tha past week will continue till the time the level of Rs 3680 is

not taken out convincingly. In the coming couple of weeks we can see

the prices moving towards the immediate resistance of Rs 3825.

Fundamental factors like festive demand may push further support

recovery. Recently made low of Rs 3677 will act as the near term

support and the prices are not expected to breach that in the very short

term.

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

3625 3675 3735 3825 3900

Outlook: last week’s recovery might continue pushing prices close to Rs 3825.

• According to market sources, over half of India currently faces sugar deficit

despite high carryover stocks from the previous year. The stock of sugar

which was pegged by ISMA at 7.7 mn MT on 1 oct 2016, may fall precariously

low by 30 Sep 2017. Although the closing stock is pegged to 4.5 mn tonnes in

2017, trade sources fear that stocks may fall below 3 mn tonnes by Sep 2017.

• While India consumes 25 mn tonnes of sugar annually, ISMA has estimated an

output of 25.1 mn tonnes of sugar during the 2017-18 sugar season, while ICRA

has estimated the sugar output at 24 mn tonnes, higher than last year’s 20.3

mn tonnes. The 2016-17 output was down 19% from 2015-16.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

04-08-2017 28-07-2017 %Change

Muzzafarnagar 3738 3733.75 0.11

Kolhapur 3725 3714.2 0.29

Delhi 3785 3795 -0.26

• In next season 2017-18, sugar production may rise by 72% in Maharashtra to 72 lakh tonnes, while Karnataka may show a growth of 31% to 27 lakh

tonnes, as monsoon for this season is seen in deficit in Karnataka, as on date. UP may show a rise of 16% to 102 lakh tonnes of sugar.

• As per the latest sowing estimates, as on 4th August 2017, sugarcane was sown in 49.71 lakh hectares against the normal of 49.05 and 45.64 last

year till the date, on back of FRP hike. However the monsoon has been erratic and deficient rainfall in south has once again has threatened

recovery in sugar production this season, pushing sugar prices to a three-month high in the past few weeks.

• Sugar companies in Tamil Nadu are facing an acute sugarcane shortage in 2017-18 owing to extended dry spells in recent years. The state has

planned to in raw sugar from UP in North India to keep operations viable in the coming season. The standing sugarcane crop in the state is

estimated to provide for sugar production of less than 6 lakh tonnes in 2016-17. Consequently, mills’ capacity utilisation will drop below 20%.

• Currently, increased buying by stockists and rising demand from retailers and bulk consumers in India in view of festive season at the door is

lending bullishness to sugar prices. The government has directed all sugar associations to order their mills to improve supply to curtail prices.

• On the import front, the government in June had allowed duty free import of 0.5 mn tonnes of sugar fearing shortage. Some participants were

of view that this quantity was not sufficient. Post this, the global prices fell sharply following bumper production in Brazil. The government

then raised the import duty of sugar to 50% from 40% to prevent dumping of sugar in India and help sugar mills clear cane arrears to farmers.

• The government is now considering allowing imports of 3-5 lakh tonne at a concessional duty of 25% to boost sugar supplies for festive season.

• Overall fundamental score of 3.2 shows bullishness in sugar prices for short term until government takes a step to elevate availability.

Fundamental Summary

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5) *

High domestic demand from stockists and retailers to cater to festive sugar demand

Bullish 25% 4

Sugar stocks expected to fall lower than officially estimated due to significantly lower production in 2016-17

Bullish 15% 4

Hike in sugar import duty to 50% from 40% Bullish 20% 4

Well progressed sowing of sugarcane for 2017-18 season Bearish 20% 2

Higher sugar production estimate for 2017-18 Bearish 20% 2

Overall fundamental score 3.2

*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5. Bullish

Fundamentals- Domestic & International

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

02-06-2017 26-05-2017 %Change

Muzzafarnagar 3915 3892.5 0.58

Kolhapur 3837 3847.5 -0.27

Delhi 3932.55 3920 0.32

Fundamentals- Domestic & International

SUGAR

BACK TO TOP

Date: 08-08-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Price Trend & Technicals

2700

2930

3160

3390

3620

3850

4080

4310

Jan

-15

Mar

-15

May

-15

Jun

-15

Au

g-1

5

Oct

-15

De

c-15

Feb

-16

Ap

r-16

Jun

-16

Au

g-1

6

Oct

-16

De

c-16

Feb

-17

Ap

r-17

Jun

-17

Au

g-1

7

Soybean : IndoreWe hold our previous week’s view in soybean that any rise from here

would struggle to sustain the higher levels. For the coming weeks we

expect some more sideways to slightly downward movement in the

counter. The support is seen at Rs 2915 and then at Rs 2860 and the

immediate resistance stands at Rs 3010 and then at Rs 3100. Though

the sowing numbers are below last year’s average but higher

production estimates and higher carryover stocks for next year will

be seen weighing on the prices in the near term. Improved mandi

arrivals will also pressurize prices.

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

2865 2915 2956 3010 3100

Outlook: Prices will mild neagative undertone towards Rs 2915.

• According to the latest sowing report, soybean sowing acreage for 2017-18

is recoded at 98.97 lakh hectares which is 10.39 per cent lower than last

year’s acreage of 110.45 lakh hectares at the same period. Lower sowing

acreage report may have bullish impact on the prices.

• Appreciation of Indian currency against US dollar had a negative impact on

India’s soymeal exports. India’s soymeal exports in the month of June 2017

were 41.32 thousand MT, lower by 15.50 per cent as against of 48.90

thousand MT in May 2017.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

04-08-2017 28-07-2017 % change

Indore 2951 2972 -0.71

Kota 2807.5 2818.75 -0.40

Nagpur 3055.25 3080.5 -0.82

• According to the latest weekly USDA crop progress report, soybean blooming is reported at 80% which is down from 82% of the corresponding

period last year. Soybean crop setting pods are reported at 48% which is down from 51% of the corresponding period last year. Unfavourable

weather condition in US may have slightly bullish impact on the spot prices.

• According to agmark, all India soybean crop mandi arrivals in the fifth week of July were around 97.93 thousand tonnes which were 53.84

percent higher than the 45.20 thousand MT arrivals in the same corresponding week last year. Higher arrivals in the mandis may have a slightly

bearish impact on the prices.

• According to the trade sources, India would have over 2 million tonnes of soybean left as carryover stocks in the beginning of November 2017.

Higher carryover stocks of soybean may have bearish impact on the domestic prices.

• As per third advance production estimate of 2016-17, India’s soybean production is estimated at 14.008 million metric tonne which is slightly

lower than second advance production estimate of 14.125 million metric tonne. However, it is 64.81 per cent higher than last year production

estimate of 8.57 million metric tonne. Higher production estimate will have bearish impact on the prices.

• The overall fundamental score of 2.7 shows range bound to slightly bearish movement in the coming days.

Fundamental Summary

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5) *

Lower sowing acreage data Bullish 20% 4

Appreciation of Indian currency Bearish 20% 2

Unfavourable weather condition in US Bullish 15% 4

Higher carryover stock Bearish 30% 2

Higher production estimate of 2016-17 Bearish 15% 2

Overall fundamental score 2.7

*1. Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5.Bullish

Fundamentals- Domestic & International SOYA BEAN

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Date: 08-08-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Price Trend &Technicals

3,500

3,750

4,000

4,250

4,500

4,750

5,000

5,250

Jun

-15

Au

g-1

5

Oct

-15

De

c-15

Feb

-16

Ap

r-16

Jun

-16

Au

g-1

6

Oct

-16

De

c-16

Feb

-17

Ap

r-17

Jun

-17

Au

g-1

7

Rapeseed & Mustard-Black - 42% oil content : JaipurSufficient availability of stocks, lower meal export numbers, higher

oil imports and higher arrivals are the factors which can collectively

weigh heavily on the prices but as the export price are competitive

we might see some recovery in prices in the near future. Technically

also the prices are in mild recovery phase and supply pressure can

be seen if price comes in close proximity with the resistance mark of

Rs 4040. On the downside Rs 3750 will act as a hurdle against any

further fall from that level. However a breach of Rs 3750 will result

in some more fall in prices towards rs 3680 which at the current

juncture looks unlikely.

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

3680 3750 3862 4035 4150

Outlook: Prices can see some initial recovery but selling pressure will emerge from around Rs 4000.

• The government informed the Supreme Court that a decision on the

commercial release of genetically modified mustard seeds is likely to be

taken in September. However, in reply the court told that if the decision is

in favour of the release, then court would hear a plea against the

commercial launch of GM mustard in the second week of September.

• Higher inventories of mustard seed are sufficient to fulfil the present

demand mustard oil. Higher inventory of mustard seed may have a

bearish impact on the spot prices.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

30-06-2017 23-06-2017 % change

Jaipur 3711.6 3656.45 1.51

Alwar 3690.25 3613 2.14

Sriganga Nagar 3218 3215 0.09

• gher imports of vegoils may have marginal bearish impact on the prices.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

04-08-2017 28-07-2017 % change

Jaipur 3842.95 3859.5 -0.43

Alwar 3767.5 3819 -1.35

Sriganga Nagar 3300 3425 -3.65

• According to AGMARK, all India Mustard crop mandi arrivals in the fifth week of July are around 30.58 thousand tonnes which is 2.71 per cent

higher than second week of July arrivals of 29.77 thousand tonnes. Arrivals have slightly increased as compare to the previous week which might

have a marginal bearish impact on the prices.

• According to the latest report, Canadian canola sowing is reported at 22.8 million acres in 2017 which is 12.1 per cent higher than the 20.4 million

acres reported in 2016.

• India’s mustard meal exports in the month of June 2017 were `44.07 thousand MT, lower by 21.44 per cent against 56.10 thousand MT in May

2017.As on 6th July, mustard meal fob price of Kandla was recorded at $230 (ready) against $227 Hbg ex.mill (July) making India’s mustard meal

competitive in the international market. Export demand of Indian meal may increase in the coming days which may have a marginal bullish

impact on the prices.

• India’s vegetable (edible and non-edible) oil imports of June 2017 is 13.45 Lakh MT which is 15.05 per cent higher than imports of 11.69 Lakh MT in

the corresponding month last year. Cheap imports of vegetable oils are exerting pressure on domestic edible oil and oilseed prices.

• As per third advance production estimate of 2016-17, India’s mustard production is estimated at 7.977 million metric tonne which is slightly higher

than second advance production estimate of 7.912 million metric tonne. However, it is 17.36 per cent higher than last year production estimate of

6.797 million metric tonne. Higher production estimate may have a marginal bearish impact on the prices.

• The overall fundamental score of 2.6 shows range bound to slightly bearish movement in the coming days.

•

• Overall score of 2.8 shows prices may trade range bound with downward pressure on the market.

Fundamental Summary

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5)*

Higher Stocks Bearish 20% 2

Higher arrivals in the mandis Bearish 20% 2

Higher Canadian canola sowing report Bearish 10% 2

Competetive mustard meal fob prices Bullish 30% 4

Higher oil imports Bearish 20% 2

Overall fundamental score 2.6

* 1. Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5.Bullish

Fundamentals- Domestic & International RM SEED

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Date: 08-08-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Fundamentals- Domestic & International

Price Trend &Technicals

2500

2900

3300

3700

4100

4500

4900

5300

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar

-16

May

-16

Jun

-16

Au

g-1

6

Se

p-1

6

No

v-16

De

c-16

Feb

-17

Mar

-17

May

-17

Jun

-17

Au

g-1

7

Castor - Deesa

CASTOR SEED

Clarity on the quantum of damage due to recent rains in Gujarat to

the existing stock and sowing which has been done will decide the

near term trend of Castor prices. As per the current situation and

latest sowing numbers some negative movement will be seen in

the coming weeks. We expect prices to moderate initially and test

the support of Rs 4350 which will cap further downside.

Fundamental updates on crop loss and sowing progress will

influence the prices in the days ahead. Some rebound can be seen

from Rs 4350 levels. However if rice manages to breach Rs 4350 it

can slip further to Rs 4310 mark.

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

4310 4350 4455 4505 4660

Outlook: Prices can slip initially towards 4350 where the movement will stabalize.

• According to the latest sowing report, kharif castor sowing acreage for

2017-18 is recoded at 2.72 lakh hectares which is 77.78 per cent higher than

the 1.53 lakh hectares in the same corresponding period last year. Higher

sowing acreage may have slightly bearish impact on the prices.

• Cotton farmers in key growing regions like Saurashtra and North Gujarat

may turn to castor or pulses crop as recent flood in Gujarat has affected

the cotton crop. Castor acreage in Gujarat may increase if farmers switch

to castor which may have slightly bearish impact on the prices.

•

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

04-08-2017 28-07-2017 % change

Kadi 4340 4335 0.12

Palanpur 4000 4000 0.00

Deesa 4400 4500 -2.22

• According to the agmark, castor arrivals in the mandis have decreased as compared to last year. In the last week of July all India castor crop

arrivals were recorded at 1.13 thousand MT which were 693.59 percent lower than the 9.00 thousand MT arrivals in the same corresponding

week last year. Lower arrivals may have bullish impact on the prices.

• Recent rains and flood in Gujarat may have affected the stocks of castor with stockiest.

• India’s castor meal exports in the month of June were 62.52 thousand MT, higher by 226.64 per cent against 19.14 thousand MT in May 2017.

India’s castor meal exports in the period April-June 2017-18 were 93.08 thousand MT as against 80.81 thousand MT during the same period in

2015-16. Good export demand & expectation of increase in price in the coming days may have marginally bullish impact on the domestic prices.

• India’s castor oil export in the month of May is recorded at 43.97 thousand MT which is 20.84 percent lower than export of 55 .55 thousand MT

of April 2017. However, castor oil export demand is expected to increase in the coming days due to lower spot prices. Higher export demand

may have marginal bullish impact on the prices.

• According to the government’s third advance estimate, Castor seed production is estimated at 15.54 lakh metric tonne for 2016-17 which is 11.30

per cent lower than the final production estimate of 17.52 lakh metric tonne of 2015-16. Moreover, according to SEA, all India castor seed

production is estimated at 10.61 Lakh MT for 2016-17 which is 25.43 per cent lower than last year production estimate of 14.23 Lakh metric

tonnes. Lower production estimate might have bullish impact on the prices.

• Overall score of 3.3 shows range bound to slightly firm movement in the coming days.

Fundamental Summary

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5)*

Higher sowing area coverage Bearish 35% 2

Lower Arrivals Bullish 20% 4

Stocks affected by floods in Gujarat Bullish 20% 4

Higher castor meal export demand Bullish 15% 4

Higher castor oil export demand Bullish 10% 4

Overall fundamental score 3.3

*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5.Bullish

BACK TO TOP

Date: 08-08-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

x

Price Trend &Technicals

13000

14000

15000

16000

17000

18000

19000

20000

Feb

-16

Ap

r-16

May

-16

Jul-1

6

Se

p-1

6

No

v-16

De

c-16

Feb

-17

Ap

r-17

Jun

-17

Au

g-1

7

Cumin Seed (Kala Jeera) - UnjhaPickup in the export demand and lower carryover stocks is creating

a supply crunch in the market. We might see the effect of that on

the prices in the weeks to come. The recovery may resume in the

Jeera prices nad and if the prices manage to move beyond Rs 19580

and trade sustainably above that we might see some fresh

momentum pushing prices higher towards Rs 20000 mark. Minor

support is seen around Rs 19075 and a crack of it will result in some

drawdown in prices towards Rs 18800.

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

18830 19075 19312 19580 20000

Outlook: A breach and sustained trading above Rs 19580 will push prices higher towards Rs 20000.

• Jeera futures and spot markets remained range bound tracking

subdued trading activities due to heavy rainfall resulting in flooding in

most of the parts in Gujarat and also Rajasthan. But, the downside in

Jeera prices is limited in the near term due to thin stocks. Farmers and

stockiests are releasing their stocks at higher levels.

• According to Unjha based traders, strong demand is likely to be

witness in the coming months as the stock left with farmers and

stockiest is limited followed by upcoming festival season.

Approximately, 12-15 lakhs bags (55kg each) Jeera stock is left with

farmers and stockiest.

Mandi

Jeera: Price in Rs/ Quintal

04-08-2017 28-07-2017 % change

Unjha 19464 19433 0.16

Patan 17000 16750 1.49

Jodhpur 18142 17963 1.00

• Export demand is said to be good and likely to remain strong in 2017-18 as India is the main supplier of Jeera in the world market. Jeera export

during April-May 2017 declined to 27,379.80 metric tonnes as compared to 35,123.86 metric tonnes exported same period year ago. The major

buyers were Vietnam with 5,898 tonnes, UAE 3,134.64 tonnes, Bangladesh 3,345 tonnes, USA 1,528.96 tonnes and Brazil 1,310 tonnes. India Cumin

seed export during 2016-17 was higher at 122,992.91 metric tonnes compared with 94,352.47 metric tonnes previous year.

• According to market sources, Cumin seed production of around 12,000 to 15,000 tonnes is expected in Turkey, while Syria is likely to produce

around 30,000 to 40,000 tonnes this year. Adverse report on production and export front and low stocks from Turkey and Syria created

possibilities of export demand shifting further to India.

• Last year (2016-17) the total Cumin production in the country stood at 4.86 lakh tonnes as against 5.03 lakh tonnes 2015-16. Cumin production in

Gujarat for 2016-17 estimated at 2.12 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.38 lakh tonnes produced in 2015-16. As the Cumin sowing likely to start from

November the expectations of higher acreage has increased due to more than sufficient rainfall in key Jeera growing belts of Gujarat and

Rajasthan.

• New Jeera stocks at NCDEX approved warehouses as on 06th August 2017, declined significantly at 2497 tonnes as compared to 6355 metric

tonnes same period last year.

Fundamental Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5)*

Summary Improvement in trading activities in spot markets Bullish 25% 4

Higher export demand Bullish 20% 4

Lower stocks with Farmers & Stockiests Bullish 20% 4

Tight global demand supply position Bullish 15% 3

Profit booking at higher levels Bearish 20% 2

Overall fundamental score 3.4

*1.Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5.Bullish

Fundamentals- Domestic &International JEERA

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Date: 08-08-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Price Trend &Technicals

4800

5500

6200

6900

7600

8300

9000

9700

Jun

-14

Oct

-14

Jan

-15

May

-15

Se

p-1

5

Jan

-16

May

-16

Au

g-1

6

De

c-16

Ap

r-17

Au

g-1

7

Turmeric : Unpolished fingers : NizamabadAn expected decline in the acreage of turmeric for the coming year

due to farmers shifting to other crops in key producing regions.

Technically there has been a trend reversal in turmeric prices since

prices hit a low of Rs 5375. Prices are in strong uptrend but are very

near to its immediate resistance level of Rs 7810. Once that mark is

invalidated we might see another leg of fresh buying emerging

pushing prices higher towards the next key level of Rs 8270. The

chances of any sharp correction from here looks unlikely and the

support of Rs7360 will prevent and significant correction even if

some profit booking is triggered.

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

7200 7360 7683.4 7810 8270

Outlook: Prices will move up and gather more strength on a breach of Rs 7810 for fresh upside towards Rs 8270.

Fundamentals- Domestic & International TURMERIC

• Lower Turmeric acreage reports from Andhra Pradesh and Telangana,

declining stocks position and expectation of improved demand are

factors that are supporting Turmeric prices in spot as well as in futures

market. Lower rainfall in key Turmeric growing belts have also kept the

market sentiments firm. Turmeric acreage in few pockets of Maharashtra

likely to decline as farmers are likely to shift to sugarcane crop.

• Andhra Pradesh Markfed postponed Turmeric auction which was

scheduled on 1st week of August. The decision was taken considering

weakness in prices. They will announce new dates in September-October

as prices are likely to rise till then due to festive demand. Markfed had

planned phase-wise auction programme for sale of 48,500 tonne

Turmeric.

Mandi Turmeric: Price in Rs/ Quintal

04-08-2017 28-07-2017 % change

Nizamabad 7654 7242 5.69

Coimbatore 7700 7500 2.67

Cuddapah 7492 6632 12.97

• In Telangana, Turmeric acreage as on 26th July 2017, declined to 35,447 hectares as compared to 37,177 hectares same period last year. The

normal acreage is close to 47,177 hectares. As per the Department of Agriculture Andhra Pradesh, as on 26th July 2017, Turmeric acreage in the

state stood at 7356 hectares as against 8057 hectares same period last year.

• There are prospects of over all Turmeric acreage to decline in 2017-18 due to poor returns in earlier season. Beside lower prices, low rainfall in

key Turmeric growing regions may prompt farmers to go for less water intensive crops. As per the Spices Board of India, Turmeric production in

2016-17 in the country estimated at 10,51,160 tonnes as against 9,67,060 tonnes in 2015-16. Acreage under Turmeric in 2016-17 was 1,93,390

hectares in 2016-17.

• Turmeric exports during the first two month (April-May) of FY 2017-18 increased by 3.65 per cent at 24,999.54 metric tonnes as against 24,119.31

metric tonnes same period last year. The top three buyers were Iran with 3,380 Tonnes, Bangladesh with 2,575 tonnes and UAE 2,175.86 tonnes.

Export demand is also likely to remain better in FY 2017-18 after good performance in FY 2016-17. The country shipped 116,500 tonnes Turmeric in

FY 2016-17. • Turmeric stocks at NCDEX approved warehouses on 06th August 2017 stood at 6037 tonnes as against 6057 tonnes same period last year.

Fundamental Summary

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5)*

Lower acreage reports Bullish 20% 3

Expectation of improved demand Bullish 25% 4

Lower rainfall in key Turmeric belts Bullish 20% 4

Higher Turmeric production in 2016-17 Bearish 15% 2

Profit booking at higher levels Bearish 20% 2

Overall fundamental score 3.1

* 1. Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5.Bullish

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Date: 08-08-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Fundamentals- Domestic & International

Price Trend & Technicals

3200

3600

4000

4400

4800

5200

5600

6000

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Ap

r-16

Jun

-16

Au

g-1

6

Oct

-16

De

c-16

Feb

-17

Ap

r-17

Jun

-17

Au

g-1

7

Groundnuts (in shell) : Junagadh

GROUND NUT

Higher production and comfortable stock positions are a

deterrent to any near term positivity of the groundnut prices.

However the damage from the recent rains and good export

demand are limiting the downside in the prices. Technically the

prices are looking under pressure and in the near term the

pressure will continue to weigh prices down. We expect prices to

drift towards Rs3380 in the coming weeks and a crack of it will

result in further moderation towards Rs 3310. On the higher side

the resistance stands at Rs 3625 and considering the current

factors the chances if it getting breached in the near term looks

weak. IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

3310 3380 3470 3630 3715

Outlook: Prices will trade with bearish undertone towards Rs 3380.

• Area in Gujarat is slightly higher by 0.414 lakh hectare over last year and in Rajasthan it is higher by 1.504 lakh hectares. The decline in area has

been driven by Andhra Pradesh where the area sown is down by 4.57 lakh hectare from last year. It is because of shift from pulses that the

acreage went up in Gujarat and Rajasthan, while in Andhra Pradesh area has increased under paddy.

• As per the third advanced estimates of the government, India’s 2016-17 kharif groundnut production stood at 62.64 lakh tonnes against 53.68

lakh tonnes in 2015-16. The rabi production was only marginally up at 13.86 lakh tonnes against 13.66 lakh tonnes in 2015-16. Overall, India’s

groundnut production in 2016-17 was 13.6% higher than the 2015-16 production.

• The MSP of Groundnut -in- shell for the season 2017-18 was rasied by 5.45% to Rs 4,450Qtl (including Rs 100 bonus) from Rs 4,220/Qtl last year.

• Exports of groundnuts in 2016-17 jumped by over a third on robust demand from countries such as Vietnam and Indonesia and a bigger domestic

crop. As per APEDA, India exported 7.265 lakh tonnes of Groundnut in 2016-17 against 5.378 lakh tonnes in 2015-16. Exporters attribute the rise in

seed exports to multiple factors, including increased availability, competitive prices in the international market and globally acceptable quality. Indian groundnuts are preferred over other origins such as China because of the high oil content.

• The surge in seed exports helped lift prices in Gujarat, which accounts for half of India’s output. On a bumper harvest, groundnut prices had

dropped to a low of Rs 2,750 a quintal in Gujarat during the October-November period last year, much below the MSP of Rs 4,220. However the

prices could show some recovery in Feb-April 2017 due to export demand.

• Overall score of 2.8 shows mild bearishness in Groundnut prices for now before the final area numbers start feeding into the prices.

Fundamental Summary

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5)*

Higher production of groundnut in 2016-17 and higher stocks Bearish 35% 2

Decline in area sown over previous year Bullish 15% 4

Floods affecting sowing in the major producing state of Gujarat Bullish 10% 4

Subdued domestic demand of Groundnut oil Bearish 25% 2

Strong seed export demand from far east countries of Vietnam and Indonesia due to competitive prices as well high oil content in Indian groundnut seeds

Bullish 15% 4

Overall fundamental score 2.8

*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5.Bullish

• Groundnut sowing in Gujarat has been adversely affected by the heavy

rains. Junagadh, Rajkot and Jamnagar are major groundnut growing areas

in the state. The torrential rains have impacted 30% of the cotton and

groundnut area where sowing had been completed.

• Although the progress of groundnut sowing was well advanced till the

previous week, as per latest sowing update on 4th August 2017, the area

sown under groundnut has fallen 12.9% below previous year till same date.

The area sown is 34.99 lakh ha against 40.21 lakh ha last year till 4th Aug &

34.09 lakh ha normal till date.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Qtl.

04-08-2017 28-07-2017 %change

Rajkot 3050 3500 -12.85

Jaipur 4174 4304 -3.02

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Date: 08-08-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

• India set for record kharif crop harvest News Link

• Sugar shortage: Government mulls import at lower duty of 25% News Link

• Basmati rice, guargum drive India’s April-June agri exports News Link

• Government launches e-RaKAM portal for selling agri produce News Link

• Gujarat farmers may turn to pulses, castor News Link

• Rice exporters ask Centre to correct GST anomaly on registered brands News Link

• FSSAI amends rule to make testing methods uniform and avoid variations News Link

• Spices Board chief lays stress on quality News Link

• Cardamom loses flavour as rains alter sentiment News Link

• Government caps toor daal imports to 2 lakh MT per annum News Link

• FCI let over 4 lakh tonne wheat rot away: CAG News Link

• Palm oil futures may rise again News Link

• FCI rice stocks balloon on export barrier, OMSS failure News Link

• GST impact on the logistics sector News Link

• Brazil a 'bigger threat' to US in corn exports, rather than soy - ADM News Link

.

7.68.7

-0.4

0.0

1.8

4.3

-0.7

-0.4

-0.7

0.3

-2.2

16.8

0.16

-3.02

-9.0 -4.0 1.0 6.0 11.0 16.0 21.0

Chana

Tur

Wheat

Paddy

Pepper

Guar

Soya

Mustard

Cotton

Sugar

Castor

Turmeric

Jeera

Groundnut

% age change since 28th July 2017

News corner

OFFICIAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES

Third advance estimates 2016-17 &

previous years’ estimates :

Third Advance Estimates

Link for commodity-wise and

market-wise prices and arrivals:

http://agmarknet.gov.in/PriceAndArrivals/

CommodityWiseDailyReport2.aspx

MSP in Rs /Qtl- Kharif 2017-18

Commodity 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18

Paddy Common 1410 1470 1550

paddy grade A 1450 1510 1590

Jowar Hybrid 1570 1625 1700

Jowar Maldandi 1590 1650 1725

Bajra 1275 1330 1425

Ragi 1650 1725 1900

Maize 1325 1365 1425

Tur 4625 5050 5450*

Moong 4850 5225 5575*

Urad 4625 5000 5400*

Groundnut 4030 4220 4450*

Sunflower seed 3800 3950 4100 #

Soyabean black

2775 3050

Sesamum 4700 5000 5300 #

Nigerseed 3650 3825 4050 #

Cotton(Medium Staple) 3800 3680 4020

Cotton(Long Staple) 4100 4160 4320

*includes bonus of Rs 200 per quintal

# includes bonus of Rs 100 per quintal

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MONSOON SITUATION

Date: 08-08-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Sowing progress: Kharif 2017-18- LINK

BACK TO TOP

Date: 08-08-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Advisory Team

Basant Vaid Head: TCIG basant.v@ncml.com

Sreedhar Nandam Vice President: SCM sreedhar.n@ncml.com

Research Team

Suresh Solanki Assistant Manager: TCIG suresh.s@ncml.com

Kamna Malhotra Economist: TCIG kamna.m@ncml.com

Akash Jaiswal Research Analyst: TCIG akash.j@ncml.com

Ansh Aggarwal Senior Officer: Trade Support ansh.a@ncml.com

For any research queries, contact us at research@ncml.com

Disclaimer:

This consultancy report has been prepared by National Collateral Management Services Limited (NCML) for the sole benefit of the addressee.

Neither the report nor any part of the report shall be provided to third parties without the written consent of NCML. Any third party in

possession of the report may not rely on its conclusions without the written consent of NCML. NCML has exercised reasonable care and skill in

preparation of this consultancy report but has not independently verified information provided by others. No other warranty, express or

implied, is made in relation to this report. Therefore, NCML assumes no liability for any loss resulting from errors, omissions or

misrepresentations made by others. Any recommendations, opinions and findings stated in this report are based on circumstances and facts as

they existed at the time of preparation of this report. Any change in circumstances and facts on which this report is based may adversely affect

any recommendations, opinions or findings contained in this report.

© National Collateral Management Services Limited (NCML) 2017

STOCK

Stock limits of States/UTs

Answers of NCoMM report dated 17 July 2017:

1. Names of commodities from report: Wheat, Rice (Paddy), Tur, Chana

2. Commodity which gets support from firmness in crude oil: Guarseed

Commodity whose exports increased by 132 per cent over last year: Guargum

Only the following people could give correct and complete answers in first go:

Divya Sukumaran R. Maheshkumar

Sandeep Shedge