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Page 1: NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor Date: 16 …...• India’s rice exports likely to jump 22 per cent in 2017 to a record 12.3 million tonnes as neighbouring Bangladesh ramped up

0

Date: 16-01-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor

HOME

• Cotton • Sugar • Soyben • RM Seed • Castor seed • Turmeric • Jeera

NCoMM

NCML COMMODITY MARKET MONITOR

Cotton | Sugar | Soybean | RM Seed | Castor seed | Turmeric | Jeera

OUTLOOK

OTHER DATA Sowing progress | Advance estimates | Kharif and rabi MSP

ANSWERS & LUCKY WINNER OF PREVIOUS WEEK’S

QUIZ

NCoMM NCML COMMODITY MARKET MONITOR

ANSWERS & LUCKY WINNER OF PREVIOUS WEEK’S QUIZ

WEEKLY ONLINE QUIZ Click on the link above to participate

Participate in our weekly quiz and get a chance to win Amazon gift coupons. Winners will be announced in next report and

rewarded.

Cotton • Sugar • Soyben • RM Seed •Castor seed • Turmeric • Jeera

Page 2: NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor Date: 16 …...• India’s rice exports likely to jump 22 per cent in 2017 to a record 12.3 million tonnes as neighbouring Bangladesh ramped up

0

Date: 16-01-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Sugar prices are reeling under fundamental supply pressure. The high

levels of anticipated production and, enough to meet the domestic

demand this year is keeping the prices subdued. The developments like

removal of stock holding limits are not helping the prices much.

Technically the bearishness in the prices will prevail in short to medium

term and the southwardly movement is expected in the months to come.

Below Rs 3300 Rs 3130 looks to the immediate support zone where the

prices can halt its declining streak. However, a slip below it will increase

the chances of a further drawdown towards Rs 2850 off levels.

• ISMA has pegged sugar output of India at 25.1 mn tonnes in 2017-18,

23.6% higher than 20.3 mn tonnes in the previous year.

• The estimated output is just enough to meet India’s annual sugar

consumption of about 25 mn tonnes.

• India’s sugar output rose by 26% to 103.26 lakh tonnes in the 2017 Oct-

Dec period from 81.91 lakh tonnes in same period last year.

• The increase is mainly from UP (38.80 lakh tonnes in Oct-Dec vs 26.78

lakh tonnes last year) & Maharashtra (38.24 vs 25.35 lakh tonnes).

• Persistent supplies from mills are currently keeping the sugar prices in

India pressurised.

• Given the comfortable S&D situation, government withdrew stock

holding and turnover limits on sugar dealers in December.

• Sugar season 2017-18 started with an opening stock of around 3.876

mn tonnes, lowest ever in the last several years.

• The closing stock would be tight at 4 mn tonnes at the end of the

ongoing 2017-18 (Oct-Sep) season. Thus, as per ISMA, there would be

no scope for sugar exports this season.

• Pakistan is planning to give a subsidy to export its surplus sugar. The

Indian government might hence hike the import duty on sugar from

the current 50% to check cheaper shipments from Pakistan.

• India’s 2017-18 sugarcane production is pegged at 3377 lakh tonnes

against 3067.2 lakh tonnes produced last year.

• Southern mills (AP, Telangana & TN) are however reeling under low

production & very low crushing capacity utilisation due to drought.

• India’s cane and sugar output are expected to jump next season.

• Preparing for the potential glut, Indian government will ask Sri Lanka &

Bangladesh to lower their import tariffs for sugar exports from India.

• Indonesia is also keen to import sugar from India in 2018-19.

• USDA estimates world sugar production at 185 mn tonnes in 2017-18

from 172 mn tonnes last year, with consumption rising to 174 mn

tonnes.

• Record production in Brazil (up 1.1 mn tonnes to a record 40.2 mn

tonnes), expected recoveries in output in India & Thailand, the end of

production quotas in the European Union (EU), & area expansion in

China are contributing factors for global sugar surplus.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

12-01-2018 05-01-2018 %Change

Muzzafarnagar 3312.25 3348.1 -1.07

Kanpur 3423.8 3426.55 -0.08

Delhi 3385.5 3340.25 1.35

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

2850 3130 3312 3400 3580

Outlook: The prices are expected to trade under pressure and might slip towards Rs 3130 if falls below Rs 3300.

2,100

2,400

2,700

3,000

3,300

3,600

3,900

Jan

-14

Jun

-14

No

v-14

May

-15

Oct

-15

Mar

-16

Se

p-1

6

Feb

-17

Jul-1

7

Jan

-18

Sugar - M-grade : Muzaffarnagar

SUGAR FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5) *

Persistent supplies from mills, particularly UP and Maharashtra

Bearish 25% 2

23.6% y-o-y increase in 2017-18 sugar output of India expected due higher cane production

Bearish 35% 2

Removal of stock holding and turnover limits

Bullish 20% 4

Seasonal demand of sugar

Bullish 10% 4

Tight closing stock expected due to production just meeting consumption

Bullish 10% 4

Overall fundamental score

2.8

*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5. Bullish

Fundamentals

Technical Price Analysis

SUGAR

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0

Date: 16-01-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Wheat prices have not shown much of the movement lately. Government

is optimistic about the record production this year however the acreage

numbers are suggesting otherwise. There is a lack of clarity in the

expected outlook of wheat prices. We expect prices to trade sideways till

some fresh developments from the fundamental front. Rs 1872-1770 will

the expected range and the prices will hover within this range for the near

term. Close vicinity to the upper band will invite correction and a move

towards the lower band of the range will support prices and push it higher

keeping the ongoing range intact.

• In the current Rabi sowing season, India’s wheat acreage till 12th

January 2018 stands at 295.53 lakh hectares, 4.67 per cent lower as

compared to 309.99 lakh hectares sown last year till the same date.

• The area under wheat came down in many States, but was most in

Madhya Pradesh. As farmers in drought-hit parts of Madhya Pradesh

preferred to sow pulses over wheat which require less water.

• According to the agriculture secretary, India wheat production may

reach an all time of over 100 million tonnes in the current 2017-18 crop

year due to likely increase in acreage and yields. He is hoping wheat

area will cover up in the coming days as sowing got delayed as fields

were not free for planting of the wheat crop.

• However, severe cold wave and ground frost conditions are expected

to return to North & North-west India which may raise concerns over

the standing wheat crop. The current weather condition is seen to be

conducive for the wheat crop, which is still in vegetative stages. Had

the crop reached flowering stage, this weather could have impacted it.

• As per first advance estimate of Government, India wheat production

target estimate is reported at 97.50 million MT for 2017-18. India

recorded a bumper crop of 98.38 million tonnes in 2016-17 against 92.2

million tonnes in 2015-16.

• According to the market participants, the government may increase

the import duty on wheat to protect domestic farmers from cheaper

wheat imports. Currently there is 20 per cent duty on imported wheat.

According to trade, over 5 lakh tonnes of imported wheat is lying in

various Indian ports in the south, with no major buyers as prices have

crashed in the domestic and global market.

• Wheat buffer stock with government agencies as on 1st January 2018 is

19.562 million MT which is 42.30 per cent higher than stock of 13.747

million MT at the same time last year. Higher buffer stock with

government agencies may let prices to move northward direction.

• As per the latest USDA report, Global wheat output is estimated at

757.01 million MT for 2017-18 against 750.54 million tonnes for 2016-17,

while the ending stocks are projected higher at 268.02 million tonnes

against 252.72 million tonnes last year.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

12-01-2018 05-12-2018 %Change

Delhi 1812.9 1813.7 -0.04

Indore 1723.15 1705 1.06

Kanpur 1670 1630 2.45

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

1720 1770 1808 1845 1872

Outlook: The prices are expected to trade in the range of Rs1872-1770 on the coming few weeks.

1500

1700

1900

2100

2300

2500

Feb

-16

May

-16

Au

g-1

6

No

v-16

Jan

-17

May

-17

Au

g-1

7

Oct

-17

Jan

-18

Wheat: Standard mill quality : Delhi

WHEAT FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5) *

Lower sowing acreage in current Rabi season

Bullish 25% 4

Higher domestic production estimate

Bearish 20% 2

Unfavourable weather condition

Bullish 10% 4

Higher import duty Bullish 20% 4

Higher buffer stock position with government

Bearish 25% 2

Overall fundamental score 3.1

*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5. Bullish

Fundamentals

TECHNICAL PRICE ANALYSIS

WHEAT

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0

Date: 16-01-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor

With a likely drop in the kharif output and expected rise in exports this year

on demand from Bangladesh the prices are expected to remain

underpinned in the near term. Rs 3050 is seen as the immediate support

and the prices in the short term are unlikely to fall beyond that level unless

some major fundamental development takes place. We expect prices to

continue its recovery pushing prices towards the nearest standing

resistance level of Rs 3500 and fresh wings to the prices will be seen

beyond that resistance. For the coming couple of weeks the prices are

likely to trade within the price band of Rs 3230 and 3500 with underlying

positivity. Any significant drawdown is highly unlikely.

• Rice acreage during current Rabi season increased at 20.57 lakh

hectares as against 15.04 lakh hectares same period last year. Thus 5.53

lakh hectares more area is covered compared to last year. The higher

acreage was reported from Tamil Nadu at 3.75 lakh hectares, Andhra

Pradesh with 1.20 lakh hectares, Telangana around 0.75 lakh hectares.

• According to the FCI's latest data, Rice purchase in Punjab has reached

176.61 lakh tonnes in October-December of this season. The state has

already surpassed its target of 115 lakh tonnes.

• In Haryana, Rice procurement has reached 59.20 lakh tonnes,

exceeding the target of 30 lakh tonnes given for the entire season.

• Rice purchase in Chhattisgarh has reached 33.32 lakh tonnes so far,

while the target is 48 lakh tonnes for the season.

• In Uttar Pradesh, 25.96 lakh tonnes of Rice has been procured in

October-December period of the current season against the total

target of 37 lakh tonnes. In Andhra Pradesh, 13.92 lakh tonnes has

been procured, while 9.91 lakh tonnes in Odisha so far this season.

• As per advance estimates, India's Kharif rice output 2017-18 is likely to

fall by 1.9 million tonnes to 94.48 million tonnes from the record 96.39

million tonnes Kharif production in 2016-17.

• India’s rice exports likely to jump 22 per cent in 2017 to a record 12.3

million tonnes as neighbouring Bangladesh ramped up purchases after

flooding hit its crops.

• As per USDA monthly report, Global 2017-18 Rice supplies are increased

by 1.3 million tonnes to 622.8 million tonnes, primarily on larger crops

for the Philippines and Pakistan. World 2017-18 consumption increases

1.0 million tonnes to 481.8 million on higher expected usage in China,

Ecuador, Nigeria, Vietnam, and the United States. Global 2017/18 trade

is raised to 45.8 million tonnes on higher exports by China and India

more than offsetting lower U.S exports. World ending stocks are

projected at 141.1 million tonnes for 2017-18.

• With overall fundamental score of 2.7 prices are likely to remain steady

as higher crop arrival in markets likely to check any significant uptrend.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

12-01-2018 05-01-2018 %Change

Ghaziabad (1121 Pusa)

3225 3180 1.41

Hanumangarh (1121 Pusa)

3300 3250 1.53

Kaithal (1121 Pusa)

3400 3330 2.10

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

3050 3230 3300 3340 3500

Outlook: The prices are expected to trade with mild positive undertone towards Rs 3500 on a breach of 3340.

1600

2000

2400

2800

3200

3600

Jun

-15

Oct

-15

Feb

-16

Jun

-16

Oct

-16

Feb

-17

Jun

-17

Oct

-17

Jan

-18

Paddy - 1121 pusa : Hanumangarh

RICE/PADDY FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5) *

Higher acreage during current Rabi season

Bearish 15% 2

Increase in procurement by Food Corporation of India

Bearish 25% 2

Decline in 2017-18 Rice production estimates

Bullish 25% 4

Higher exports demand from Bangladesh & Srilanka

Bullish 20% 3

Increase in arrivals in domestic markets

Bearish 15% 2

Overall fundamental score 2.7

*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5. Bullish

Fundamentals

TECHNICAL PRICE ANALYSIS

RICE/PADDY

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0

Date: 16-01-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor

The acreage of chana this year has shown an uptick of over 7%.

Government is also expecting an increased production this year which will

result in weighing down prices of chana in the days ahead. This indicates

that the lethargic movement in the chana prices will continue and there

won’t be any significant recovery in Chana prices in short to medium term.

The trading will be seen around the current levels only. As the

fundamentals are weak but the prices are already trading at a very low

levels chances of any drop in prices from here on are also nor a strong

possibility. Rs4120 will act as a floor to the prices and won’t let prices fall

any further. On the other side also any sharp rise is unlikely and any

recovery will be capper around Rs 4275 levels keeping the overall trading

range narrow.

• According to the latest sowing report, as on 12th January all India

chana acreage is reported at 105.61 lakh hectares in 2017-18 which is

7.87 per cent higher than 2016-17 acreage of 97.90 lakh hectares at the

same time period. Chana acreage has increased in 2017-18 due to

increase in MSP and farmers sifting to chana crop as domestic prices

were firm throughout the year.

• The central government has increased the minimum support price

(MSP) of chana for the crop year 2017-18 to Rs 4400 per quintal from

Rs 4000 per quintal in 2016-17.

• To protect the interest of farmers, the central government has

imposed 30 per cent import duty on chana. Chana production is

expected to be higher this season due to higher sowing acreage and if

cheap imports are allowed it might adversely affect the farmers.

• Despite higher import duty on chana, regular imports from Australia

are coming. As of 15th January, Australian chana is being traded at Rs

3901 per quintal in Mumbai market and Rs 3951 per quintal at Mundra

port.

• According to the first advance estimates released by the government,

India’s chana production target estimate for 2017-18 is 9.75 million MT

which is slightly higher than 2016-17 fourth advance estimates of 9.33

million MT. However, market participants are expecting some yield

loss in Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Naidu.

• According to the latest report of Australian Bureau of Agricultural &

Resource Economics & Sciences(ABARES), Australian chana

production estimate has been reduced by 47.85 percent to 1.045

million tonnes from 2.004 million tonnes last year due to lower yield

expectation. Despite higher sowing chickpea acreage, production

decreased due to hot and dry weather condition in major producing

region.

• Overall fundamental score of 2.8 shows mild bearishness.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

12-01-2018 05-12-2018 %Change

Delhi 4300 4350 -1.15

Bikaner 5000 5000 0.00

Latur 3750 3750 0.00

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

4050 4120 4175 4275 4460

Outlook: The prices are expected to trade in the narrow range of Rs 4275-4120.

3800

5300

6800

8300

9800

11300

12800

Se

p-1

6

No

v-16

Jan

-17

Mar

-17

May

-17

Jul-1

7

Se

p-1

7

No

v-17

Jan

-18

Chana -Rajasthani desi : Delhi

CHANA FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5) *

Higher sowing acreage Bearish 20% 2

Government imposed 30% import duty

Bullish 20% 4

Regular imports from Australia

Bearish 20% 2

Higher domestic production estimate

Bearish 20% 2

Lower production estimate of Australia

Bullish 20% 4

Overall fundamental score 2.8

*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5. Bullish

Fundamentals

TECHNICAL PRICE ANALYSIS

CHANA

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0

Date: 16-01-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor

For the coming fortnight the Tur prices are expected to continue trading

with sluggish to mildly supportive undertone and will move closer to the

nearest resistance mark of Rs 4400. Any fresh technical strength will be

seen only on a conclusive breach of the mentioned level which will infuse

some temporary positivity to the prices pushing it northwards towards Rs

4625 mark in the following weeks. However a failure to breach Rs 4000 will

result in some technical supply pressure at those levels dragging prices

down and keeping it once again with the ongoing range of Rs 3800-4400.

• According to the first advance estimate of kharif crops, tur

production is expected to decline by 16.5% from 47.8 lakh tonne in

2016-17 to 39.9 lakh tonne in 2017-18.

• The bearish trend in Tur has however extended into the new year as

the market harvest and arrivals of tur gained momentum.

• The prices of tur are ruling about 20% below the MSP level of Rs 5,450

per quintal across major markets in the key growing regions such as

Maharashtra and Karnataka where arrivals are coming in.

• The crop is of good quality, but the moisture content of fresh arrivals

is slightly high.

• A slight uptick in prices was noted in the second week of January due

to demand from retailers, however overall the prices are down.

• Procurement of tur has begun in Karnataka recently, where the State

announced a bonus of Rs550 per quintal over the Centre’s MSP of Rs

5450. The farmers will thus be get Rs 6000 per qtl. The Centre has

fixed a tur procurement target of 16.5 lakh qtl in Karnataka for the

2017-18 season.

• In Maharashtra, farmer registrations for tur procurement were to

continue till January 14 and tur procurement at MSP is set to begin

from January 15. 106 centres have been established across the

Telangana State too for procurement of Tur Dal.

• Government has restricted import quantity of tur up to 2 Lakh MT in

2017-18, of which most has been imported. As of 18th Nov, Burma

lemon tur is being offered at Rs 3500 per quintal in Mumbai market.

• In expectation that government may open up imports in lean season,

corporate buyers had booked 3-4 lakh tonnes of tur in Myanmar. They

are planning to store their inventory in Myanmar till the Indian

government lifts restriction on imports.

• Export ban on all types of pulses, including tur was removed.

• As per trade sources, central government is changing its policy of

buying pulses from the farmers. Now states will be buying pulses

according to their own requirement and central government may give

subsidy to the state government.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

12-01-2018 05-01-2018 %change

Latur 4500 4290 4.90

kanpur 3600 3700 -2.70

Akola 4520 4360 3.67

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

3570 3860 4087 4400 4625

Outlook: The prices are expected to move up towards Rs 4400 and will only gain further strength above that.

2500

6500

10500

14500

Jun

-15

Oct

-15

Jan

-16

May

-16

Au

g-1

6

No

v-16

Mar

-17

Jun

-17

Oct

-17

Jan

-18

Lemon tur FAQ-Myanmar origin : Mumbai

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5) *

Harvest and arrivals of crop gaining momentum

Bearish 40% 1

Onset of procurement in Karnataka and Maharashtra

Bullish 25% 4

Removal of export ban

Bullish 15% 4

Lower production estimate

Bullish 10% 4

Importers booked tur in Myanmar for the lean season

Consolidation

10% 3

Overall fundamental score 2.7

*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5. Bullish

Fundamentals

TECHNICAL PRICE ANALYSIS

TUR

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0

Date: 16-01-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor

With a rise in the crude prices the export demand of guar has seen a sharp

spike. This has translated into higher guar prices since the lows of

November 2017. This positivity with strengthen if the crude prices continue

to soar from the current high levels which will induce more export demand

for guar in the coming days as well. Technically the prices are seen

overstretched and are due for some correction in the near term. However,

any such correction will be temporary in nature and may not last long

giving way to fundamental positivity to prevail. Rs 4075 – 4120 is the

support band which the prices are not expected to breach considering the

current trend. On the higher side a crack of Rs 4360 will give way to prices

for testing Rs 4500 levels in the weeks to follow.

• Guar seed and Guar gum continued to trade firm in domestic spot

markets across the country due to increased demand from crushers

and stockists and also strong crude oil prices. Profit booking at the

higher levels limited the uptrend for Guar futures even as firmness in

Crude oil prices likely to support market sentiments.

• According to traders, Stocks of Guar seed is depleting at faster pace

and ending stocks this season could drop to multi year low due to

rising demand for Guar gum from international market.

• Traders are expecting Guar seed and Guar gum to remain firm in

coming days due to decreased arrival pressure and good export

demand. Traders are holding stocks and are targeting price of around

Rs. 4750 to Rs. 4850 per quintal in upcoming months.

• According to First advance estimates released by Department of

Agriculture Rajasthan, 2017-18 Guar seed production is estimated 16.76

lakh tonnes as against 14.04 lakh tonnes.

• As per the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export

Development Authority’s (APEDA) report, Guar gum exports during

2017-18 (April–November) stood at 3.21 lakh tonnes as compared to

2.26 lakh tonnes in 2016-17 (April–November).

• According to Industry sources, the country has shipped around 3.25

lakh tonnes of Guar gum during 2016-17 and expected to cross 4 lakh

tonnes in 2017-18. Guar seed total availability for the marketing year

2017-18 is estimated around 17 lakh tonnes against 22-23 lakh tonnes

year due to lower production and carry-over stocks.

• According to experts, Guar seed and Guar gum is expected to trade

positive ahead, however much will depend on rally in crude oil prices

followed by export demand for Guar gum.

• Brent crude oil hit a more than three-year high, breaking through the

psychologically important $70 a barrel level for the first time since

December 2014.

• Overall fundamental score of 3.1 indicates that prices might be

consolidating with slight bullish tone due to higher demand.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

12-01-2018 05-01-2018

%Change

Bikaner 4300 4150 3.61

Jodhpur 4407 4200 4.92

Deesa 4225 4075 3.68

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

4075 4125 4325 4360 4500

Outlook: On a closing above Rs 4360 the prices will test Rs 4500 in the coming weeks.

2,900

3,200

3,500

3,800

4,100

4,400

May

-16

Au

g-1

6

No

v-16

Feb

-17

May

-17

Au

g-1

7

No

v-17

Jan

-18

Guarseed : Bikaner

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5) *

Increased demand from crushers and stockists

Bullish 25% 4

Strength in crude oil prices

Bullish 20% 3

Decline in arrivals of new crop in spot markets

Bullish 20% 3

Higher exports during current season

Bullish 20% 3

Profit booking at higher levels

Bearish 15% 2

Overall fundamental score 3.1

*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5. Bullish

Fundamentals

TECHNICAL PRICE ANALYSIS

GUAR

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0

Date: 16-01-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Lack of any major fundamentals have led to sluggish movement in the

maize prices. Mild positivity was provided by the government expectation

of lower maize production in its advance estimates. However bumper

production in orissa has somewhat dampened the sentiments and

prevented any noticeable increase in prices. The ongoing sluggishness will

continue to prevent any sharp either-side move and the trading range will

be narrow in the coming couple of weeks. Rs1350 on the higher side and Rs

1280 on the lower side will the probable marks beyond which the prices are

unlikely to trade in the coming couple of weeks.

• As per the first advance estimates released by the government, the

kharif maize output for 2017-18 has been projected at 18.73 million

tonnes, lower than the high of 19.24 million tonnes in the previous

2016-17 season.

• As of 12th January the sowing in Maize has increased by about 3% to

15.26 Lakh Ha this year from 14.84 Lakh Ha Last year

• In the Davengere market a majority of the material is infested with

fungus which has led to the prices having a downward pressure on

market sentiments

• Starch feed makers have supported the Nizamabad spot market at

lower levels but could not have any major effect on prices.

• Maize crop from Tamil Nadu is expected to arrive soon which could

put pressure on market sentiments.

• Bumper production of maize in the state of Orissa has led to distress

selling at prices around 1100 which is well below the MSP of 1425 as

there is low demand of maize in the state and there aren’t many

purchasers in the mandis

• USDA in its 12th January report estimated the world corn production at

1044 MMT, about 3% lower from the 2016/17 output from 1075 MMt.

• USDA also lowered world’s corn ending stock estimates due to a

decrease in production estimate from 228 MMT to 206 MMT.

• US exports are projected to be lowered by about 17% to 48 MMT from

58 MMT this year.

• Overall fundamental score of 2.7 shows mild bearishness.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

12-01-2018 05-01-2018 %Change

Gullabbagh 1307.2 1302.5 0.36

Nizamabad 1300 1300 0.00

Delhi 1375 1330 3.38

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

1250 1280 1308 1330 1350

Outlook: Sideways trading will be seen in the range of Rs 1330-1280.

1100

1250

1400

1550

1700

Ap

r-16

Jun

-16

Au

g-1

6

Oct

-16

Jan

-17

Mar

-17

May

-17

Au

g-1

7

Oct

-17

De

c-17

Maize-Feed/Industrial Grade : Delhi

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5) *

Ongoing arrivals Bearish 25% 2

Lower kharif production for 2017-18

Bullish 20% 4

Higher acreage in rabi sowing

Bearish 20% 2

Muted demand Bearish 20% 2

Lower world production compared to last year

Bullish 15% 4

Overall fundamental score 2.7

*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5. Bullish

Fundamentals

TECHNICAL PRICE ANALYSIS

MAIZE

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0

Date: 16-01-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Official Production Estimates

First advance estimates 2017-18 &

previous years’ estimates :

First Advance Estimates 2017-18

MINIMUM SUPPORT PRICE (Rs/Qtl.)

Commodity 2016-17 2017-18

KHARIF

Paddy Common 1470 1550

paddy grade A 1510 1590

Jowar Hybrid 1625 1700

Jowar Maldandi 1650 1725

Bajra 1330 1425

Ragi 1725 1900

Maize 1365 1425

Tur 5050 5450*

Moong 5225 5575*

Urad 5000 5400*

Groundnut 4220 4450*

Sunflower seed 3950 4100 #

Soyabean black 2775 3050

Sesamum 5000 5300 #

Nigerseed 3825 4050 #

Cotton(Medium Staple) 3680 4020

Cotton(Long Staple) 4160 4320

RABI

Commodity 2016-17 2017-18

Wheat 1625 1735

Barley 1325 1410

Gram 4000* 4400

Masur (Lentil) 3950* 4250

Rapeseed/Mustard 3700* 4000

Safflower 3700* 4100

Wheat 1625 1735

*includes bonus of Rs 200 per quintal

# includes bonus of Rs 100 per quintal

Trade body puts soyabean supply at

104 lakh tonnes

India rice exports surge to record

on Bangladesh's strong import

appetite

India's palm oil imports flat at 7.22

lakh tonne: SEA

Crop insurance scheme likely to get

Rs 13,000 crore in FY19 budget

Farm sector to expand over 4% in

FY18: Farm Minister Radha Mohan

Singh

Wheat holding up to fog, ground

frost; caution on pest attack

Finance Minister launches options

trading in guarseed NCDEX

Southern sugar mills operating at

25% capacity due to chronic cane

shortage

Bumper groundnut crop triggers

price crash; farmers hold on to

stock

THE WEEK THAT WAS

Commodity Today Fortnight ago Month ago Year ago

15 Jan 2018 1 Jan 2018 15 Dec 2017 15 Jan 2017

Tur 4055 4135 3955 4550

Wheat 1812.9 1805.8 1809.6 2128.55

Paddy 3300 3200 3150 2750

Maize 1307.2 1296.55 1306.6 1650

Guar 4300 4125 3865 3305

Chana 4175 4275 4144.1 6700

Sugar 3312.25 3346.2 3950.45 3434.75

PRICE TRACKER

Link for commodity-wise and market-wise prices and arrivals:

http://agmarknet.gov.in/PriceAndA

rrivals/CommodityWiseDailyReport

2.aspx

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Date: 16-01-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor

RABI SOWING PROGRESS- Link

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Date: 16-01-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Advisory Team

Basant Vaid Head: TCIG [email protected]

Sreedhar Nandam Vice President: SCM [email protected]

Research Team

Suresh Solanki Assistant Manager: TCIG [email protected]

Kamna Malhotra Economist: TCIG [email protected]

Akash Jaiswal Research Analyst: TCIG [email protected]

Ansh Aggarwal Senior Officer: Trade Support [email protected]

For any research queries, contact us at [email protected]

Disclaimer:

This consultancy report has been prepared by National Collateral Management Services Limited (NCML) for the sole benefit of the addressee.

Neither the report nor any part of the report shall be provided to third parties without the written consent of NCML. Any third party in

possession of the report may not rely on its conclusions without the written consent of NCML. NCML has exercised reasonable care and skill in

preparation of this consultancy report but has not independently verified information provided by others. No other warranty, express or

implied, is made in relation to this report. Therefore, NCML assumes no liability for any loss resulting from errors, omissions or

misrepresentations made by others. Any recommendations, opinions and findings stated in this report are based on circumstances and facts as

they existed at the time of preparation of this report. Any change in circumstances and facts on which this report is based may adversely affect

any recommendations, opinions or findings contained in this report.

© National Collateral Management Services Limited (NCML) 2017