ncomm ncml commodity market monitor date: 16 …...• india’s rice exports likely to jump 22 per...
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Date: 16-01-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
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• Cotton • Sugar • Soyben • RM Seed • Castor seed • Turmeric • Jeera
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OUTLOOK
OTHER DATA Sowing progress | Advance estimates | Kharif and rabi MSP
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Cotton • Sugar • Soyben • RM Seed •Castor seed • Turmeric • Jeera
0
Date: 16-01-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Sugar prices are reeling under fundamental supply pressure. The high
levels of anticipated production and, enough to meet the domestic
demand this year is keeping the prices subdued. The developments like
removal of stock holding limits are not helping the prices much.
Technically the bearishness in the prices will prevail in short to medium
term and the southwardly movement is expected in the months to come.
Below Rs 3300 Rs 3130 looks to the immediate support zone where the
prices can halt its declining streak. However, a slip below it will increase
the chances of a further drawdown towards Rs 2850 off levels.
• ISMA has pegged sugar output of India at 25.1 mn tonnes in 2017-18,
23.6% higher than 20.3 mn tonnes in the previous year.
• The estimated output is just enough to meet India’s annual sugar
consumption of about 25 mn tonnes.
• India’s sugar output rose by 26% to 103.26 lakh tonnes in the 2017 Oct-
Dec period from 81.91 lakh tonnes in same period last year.
• The increase is mainly from UP (38.80 lakh tonnes in Oct-Dec vs 26.78
lakh tonnes last year) & Maharashtra (38.24 vs 25.35 lakh tonnes).
• Persistent supplies from mills are currently keeping the sugar prices in
India pressurised.
• Given the comfortable S&D situation, government withdrew stock
holding and turnover limits on sugar dealers in December.
• Sugar season 2017-18 started with an opening stock of around 3.876
mn tonnes, lowest ever in the last several years.
• The closing stock would be tight at 4 mn tonnes at the end of the
ongoing 2017-18 (Oct-Sep) season. Thus, as per ISMA, there would be
no scope for sugar exports this season.
• Pakistan is planning to give a subsidy to export its surplus sugar. The
Indian government might hence hike the import duty on sugar from
the current 50% to check cheaper shipments from Pakistan.
• India’s 2017-18 sugarcane production is pegged at 3377 lakh tonnes
against 3067.2 lakh tonnes produced last year.
• Southern mills (AP, Telangana & TN) are however reeling under low
production & very low crushing capacity utilisation due to drought.
• India’s cane and sugar output are expected to jump next season.
• Preparing for the potential glut, Indian government will ask Sri Lanka &
Bangladesh to lower their import tariffs for sugar exports from India.
• Indonesia is also keen to import sugar from India in 2018-19.
• USDA estimates world sugar production at 185 mn tonnes in 2017-18
from 172 mn tonnes last year, with consumption rising to 174 mn
tonnes.
• Record production in Brazil (up 1.1 mn tonnes to a record 40.2 mn
tonnes), expected recoveries in output in India & Thailand, the end of
production quotas in the European Union (EU), & area expansion in
China are contributing factors for global sugar surplus.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
12-01-2018 05-01-2018 %Change
Muzzafarnagar 3312.25 3348.1 -1.07
Kanpur 3423.8 3426.55 -0.08
Delhi 3385.5 3340.25 1.35
IMPORTANT LEVELS
S2 S1 CMP R1 R2
2850 3130 3312 3400 3580
Outlook: The prices are expected to trade under pressure and might slip towards Rs 3130 if falls below Rs 3300.
2,100
2,400
2,700
3,000
3,300
3,600
3,900
Jan
-14
Jun
-14
No
v-14
May
-15
Oct
-15
Mar
-16
Se
p-1
6
Feb
-17
Jul-1
7
Jan
-18
Sugar - M-grade : Muzaffarnagar
SUGAR FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5) *
Persistent supplies from mills, particularly UP and Maharashtra
Bearish 25% 2
23.6% y-o-y increase in 2017-18 sugar output of India expected due higher cane production
Bearish 35% 2
Removal of stock holding and turnover limits
Bullish 20% 4
Seasonal demand of sugar
Bullish 10% 4
Tight closing stock expected due to production just meeting consumption
Bullish 10% 4
Overall fundamental score
2.8
*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5. Bullish
Fundamentals
Technical Price Analysis
SUGAR
0
Date: 16-01-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Wheat prices have not shown much of the movement lately. Government
is optimistic about the record production this year however the acreage
numbers are suggesting otherwise. There is a lack of clarity in the
expected outlook of wheat prices. We expect prices to trade sideways till
some fresh developments from the fundamental front. Rs 1872-1770 will
the expected range and the prices will hover within this range for the near
term. Close vicinity to the upper band will invite correction and a move
towards the lower band of the range will support prices and push it higher
keeping the ongoing range intact.
• In the current Rabi sowing season, India’s wheat acreage till 12th
January 2018 stands at 295.53 lakh hectares, 4.67 per cent lower as
compared to 309.99 lakh hectares sown last year till the same date.
• The area under wheat came down in many States, but was most in
Madhya Pradesh. As farmers in drought-hit parts of Madhya Pradesh
preferred to sow pulses over wheat which require less water.
• According to the agriculture secretary, India wheat production may
reach an all time of over 100 million tonnes in the current 2017-18 crop
year due to likely increase in acreage and yields. He is hoping wheat
area will cover up in the coming days as sowing got delayed as fields
were not free for planting of the wheat crop.
• However, severe cold wave and ground frost conditions are expected
to return to North & North-west India which may raise concerns over
the standing wheat crop. The current weather condition is seen to be
conducive for the wheat crop, which is still in vegetative stages. Had
the crop reached flowering stage, this weather could have impacted it.
• As per first advance estimate of Government, India wheat production
target estimate is reported at 97.50 million MT for 2017-18. India
recorded a bumper crop of 98.38 million tonnes in 2016-17 against 92.2
million tonnes in 2015-16.
• According to the market participants, the government may increase
the import duty on wheat to protect domestic farmers from cheaper
wheat imports. Currently there is 20 per cent duty on imported wheat.
According to trade, over 5 lakh tonnes of imported wheat is lying in
various Indian ports in the south, with no major buyers as prices have
crashed in the domestic and global market.
• Wheat buffer stock with government agencies as on 1st January 2018 is
19.562 million MT which is 42.30 per cent higher than stock of 13.747
million MT at the same time last year. Higher buffer stock with
government agencies may let prices to move northward direction.
• As per the latest USDA report, Global wheat output is estimated at
757.01 million MT for 2017-18 against 750.54 million tonnes for 2016-17,
while the ending stocks are projected higher at 268.02 million tonnes
against 252.72 million tonnes last year.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
12-01-2018 05-12-2018 %Change
Delhi 1812.9 1813.7 -0.04
Indore 1723.15 1705 1.06
Kanpur 1670 1630 2.45
IMPORTANT LEVELS
S2 S1 CMP R1 R2
1720 1770 1808 1845 1872
Outlook: The prices are expected to trade in the range of Rs1872-1770 on the coming few weeks.
1500
1700
1900
2100
2300
2500
Feb
-16
May
-16
Au
g-1
6
No
v-16
Jan
-17
May
-17
Au
g-1
7
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Wheat: Standard mill quality : Delhi
WHEAT FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5) *
Lower sowing acreage in current Rabi season
Bullish 25% 4
Higher domestic production estimate
Bearish 20% 2
Unfavourable weather condition
Bullish 10% 4
Higher import duty Bullish 20% 4
Higher buffer stock position with government
Bearish 25% 2
Overall fundamental score 3.1
*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5. Bullish
Fundamentals
TECHNICAL PRICE ANALYSIS
WHEAT
0
Date: 16-01-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
With a likely drop in the kharif output and expected rise in exports this year
on demand from Bangladesh the prices are expected to remain
underpinned in the near term. Rs 3050 is seen as the immediate support
and the prices in the short term are unlikely to fall beyond that level unless
some major fundamental development takes place. We expect prices to
continue its recovery pushing prices towards the nearest standing
resistance level of Rs 3500 and fresh wings to the prices will be seen
beyond that resistance. For the coming couple of weeks the prices are
likely to trade within the price band of Rs 3230 and 3500 with underlying
positivity. Any significant drawdown is highly unlikely.
• Rice acreage during current Rabi season increased at 20.57 lakh
hectares as against 15.04 lakh hectares same period last year. Thus 5.53
lakh hectares more area is covered compared to last year. The higher
acreage was reported from Tamil Nadu at 3.75 lakh hectares, Andhra
Pradesh with 1.20 lakh hectares, Telangana around 0.75 lakh hectares.
• According to the FCI's latest data, Rice purchase in Punjab has reached
176.61 lakh tonnes in October-December of this season. The state has
already surpassed its target of 115 lakh tonnes.
• In Haryana, Rice procurement has reached 59.20 lakh tonnes,
exceeding the target of 30 lakh tonnes given for the entire season.
• Rice purchase in Chhattisgarh has reached 33.32 lakh tonnes so far,
while the target is 48 lakh tonnes for the season.
• In Uttar Pradesh, 25.96 lakh tonnes of Rice has been procured in
October-December period of the current season against the total
target of 37 lakh tonnes. In Andhra Pradesh, 13.92 lakh tonnes has
been procured, while 9.91 lakh tonnes in Odisha so far this season.
• As per advance estimates, India's Kharif rice output 2017-18 is likely to
fall by 1.9 million tonnes to 94.48 million tonnes from the record 96.39
million tonnes Kharif production in 2016-17.
• India’s rice exports likely to jump 22 per cent in 2017 to a record 12.3
million tonnes as neighbouring Bangladesh ramped up purchases after
flooding hit its crops.
• As per USDA monthly report, Global 2017-18 Rice supplies are increased
by 1.3 million tonnes to 622.8 million tonnes, primarily on larger crops
for the Philippines and Pakistan. World 2017-18 consumption increases
1.0 million tonnes to 481.8 million on higher expected usage in China,
Ecuador, Nigeria, Vietnam, and the United States. Global 2017/18 trade
is raised to 45.8 million tonnes on higher exports by China and India
more than offsetting lower U.S exports. World ending stocks are
projected at 141.1 million tonnes for 2017-18.
• With overall fundamental score of 2.7 prices are likely to remain steady
as higher crop arrival in markets likely to check any significant uptrend.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
12-01-2018 05-01-2018 %Change
Ghaziabad (1121 Pusa)
3225 3180 1.41
Hanumangarh (1121 Pusa)
3300 3250 1.53
Kaithal (1121 Pusa)
3400 3330 2.10
IMPORTANT LEVELS
S2 S1 CMP R1 R2
3050 3230 3300 3340 3500
Outlook: The prices are expected to trade with mild positive undertone towards Rs 3500 on a breach of 3340.
1600
2000
2400
2800
3200
3600
Jun
-15
Oct
-15
Feb
-16
Jun
-16
Oct
-16
Feb
-17
Jun
-17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Paddy - 1121 pusa : Hanumangarh
RICE/PADDY FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5) *
Higher acreage during current Rabi season
Bearish 15% 2
Increase in procurement by Food Corporation of India
Bearish 25% 2
Decline in 2017-18 Rice production estimates
Bullish 25% 4
Higher exports demand from Bangladesh & Srilanka
Bullish 20% 3
Increase in arrivals in domestic markets
Bearish 15% 2
Overall fundamental score 2.7
*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5. Bullish
Fundamentals
TECHNICAL PRICE ANALYSIS
RICE/PADDY
0
Date: 16-01-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
The acreage of chana this year has shown an uptick of over 7%.
Government is also expecting an increased production this year which will
result in weighing down prices of chana in the days ahead. This indicates
that the lethargic movement in the chana prices will continue and there
won’t be any significant recovery in Chana prices in short to medium term.
The trading will be seen around the current levels only. As the
fundamentals are weak but the prices are already trading at a very low
levels chances of any drop in prices from here on are also nor a strong
possibility. Rs4120 will act as a floor to the prices and won’t let prices fall
any further. On the other side also any sharp rise is unlikely and any
recovery will be capper around Rs 4275 levels keeping the overall trading
range narrow.
• According to the latest sowing report, as on 12th January all India
chana acreage is reported at 105.61 lakh hectares in 2017-18 which is
7.87 per cent higher than 2016-17 acreage of 97.90 lakh hectares at the
same time period. Chana acreage has increased in 2017-18 due to
increase in MSP and farmers sifting to chana crop as domestic prices
were firm throughout the year.
• The central government has increased the minimum support price
(MSP) of chana for the crop year 2017-18 to Rs 4400 per quintal from
Rs 4000 per quintal in 2016-17.
• To protect the interest of farmers, the central government has
imposed 30 per cent import duty on chana. Chana production is
expected to be higher this season due to higher sowing acreage and if
cheap imports are allowed it might adversely affect the farmers.
• Despite higher import duty on chana, regular imports from Australia
are coming. As of 15th January, Australian chana is being traded at Rs
3901 per quintal in Mumbai market and Rs 3951 per quintal at Mundra
port.
• According to the first advance estimates released by the government,
India’s chana production target estimate for 2017-18 is 9.75 million MT
which is slightly higher than 2016-17 fourth advance estimates of 9.33
million MT. However, market participants are expecting some yield
loss in Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Naidu.
• According to the latest report of Australian Bureau of Agricultural &
Resource Economics & Sciences(ABARES), Australian chana
production estimate has been reduced by 47.85 percent to 1.045
million tonnes from 2.004 million tonnes last year due to lower yield
expectation. Despite higher sowing chickpea acreage, production
decreased due to hot and dry weather condition in major producing
region.
• Overall fundamental score of 2.8 shows mild bearishness.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
12-01-2018 05-12-2018 %Change
Delhi 4300 4350 -1.15
Bikaner 5000 5000 0.00
Latur 3750 3750 0.00
IMPORTANT LEVELS
S2 S1 CMP R1 R2
4050 4120 4175 4275 4460
Outlook: The prices are expected to trade in the narrow range of Rs 4275-4120.
3800
5300
6800
8300
9800
11300
12800
Se
p-1
6
No
v-16
Jan
-17
Mar
-17
May
-17
Jul-1
7
Se
p-1
7
No
v-17
Jan
-18
Chana -Rajasthani desi : Delhi
CHANA FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5) *
Higher sowing acreage Bearish 20% 2
Government imposed 30% import duty
Bullish 20% 4
Regular imports from Australia
Bearish 20% 2
Higher domestic production estimate
Bearish 20% 2
Lower production estimate of Australia
Bullish 20% 4
Overall fundamental score 2.8
*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5. Bullish
Fundamentals
TECHNICAL PRICE ANALYSIS
CHANA
0
Date: 16-01-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
For the coming fortnight the Tur prices are expected to continue trading
with sluggish to mildly supportive undertone and will move closer to the
nearest resistance mark of Rs 4400. Any fresh technical strength will be
seen only on a conclusive breach of the mentioned level which will infuse
some temporary positivity to the prices pushing it northwards towards Rs
4625 mark in the following weeks. However a failure to breach Rs 4000 will
result in some technical supply pressure at those levels dragging prices
down and keeping it once again with the ongoing range of Rs 3800-4400.
• According to the first advance estimate of kharif crops, tur
production is expected to decline by 16.5% from 47.8 lakh tonne in
2016-17 to 39.9 lakh tonne in 2017-18.
• The bearish trend in Tur has however extended into the new year as
the market harvest and arrivals of tur gained momentum.
• The prices of tur are ruling about 20% below the MSP level of Rs 5,450
per quintal across major markets in the key growing regions such as
Maharashtra and Karnataka where arrivals are coming in.
• The crop is of good quality, but the moisture content of fresh arrivals
is slightly high.
• A slight uptick in prices was noted in the second week of January due
to demand from retailers, however overall the prices are down.
• Procurement of tur has begun in Karnataka recently, where the State
announced a bonus of Rs550 per quintal over the Centre’s MSP of Rs
5450. The farmers will thus be get Rs 6000 per qtl. The Centre has
fixed a tur procurement target of 16.5 lakh qtl in Karnataka for the
2017-18 season.
• In Maharashtra, farmer registrations for tur procurement were to
continue till January 14 and tur procurement at MSP is set to begin
from January 15. 106 centres have been established across the
Telangana State too for procurement of Tur Dal.
• Government has restricted import quantity of tur up to 2 Lakh MT in
2017-18, of which most has been imported. As of 18th Nov, Burma
lemon tur is being offered at Rs 3500 per quintal in Mumbai market.
• In expectation that government may open up imports in lean season,
corporate buyers had booked 3-4 lakh tonnes of tur in Myanmar. They
are planning to store their inventory in Myanmar till the Indian
government lifts restriction on imports.
• Export ban on all types of pulses, including tur was removed.
• As per trade sources, central government is changing its policy of
buying pulses from the farmers. Now states will be buying pulses
according to their own requirement and central government may give
subsidy to the state government.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
12-01-2018 05-01-2018 %change
Latur 4500 4290 4.90
kanpur 3600 3700 -2.70
Akola 4520 4360 3.67
IMPORTANT LEVELS
S2 S1 CMP R1 R2
3570 3860 4087 4400 4625
Outlook: The prices are expected to move up towards Rs 4400 and will only gain further strength above that.
2500
6500
10500
14500
Jun
-15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
May
-16
Au
g-1
6
No
v-16
Mar
-17
Jun
-17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Lemon tur FAQ-Myanmar origin : Mumbai
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5) *
Harvest and arrivals of crop gaining momentum
Bearish 40% 1
Onset of procurement in Karnataka and Maharashtra
Bullish 25% 4
Removal of export ban
Bullish 15% 4
Lower production estimate
Bullish 10% 4
Importers booked tur in Myanmar for the lean season
Consolidation
10% 3
Overall fundamental score 2.7
*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5. Bullish
Fundamentals
TECHNICAL PRICE ANALYSIS
TUR
0
Date: 16-01-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
With a rise in the crude prices the export demand of guar has seen a sharp
spike. This has translated into higher guar prices since the lows of
November 2017. This positivity with strengthen if the crude prices continue
to soar from the current high levels which will induce more export demand
for guar in the coming days as well. Technically the prices are seen
overstretched and are due for some correction in the near term. However,
any such correction will be temporary in nature and may not last long
giving way to fundamental positivity to prevail. Rs 4075 – 4120 is the
support band which the prices are not expected to breach considering the
current trend. On the higher side a crack of Rs 4360 will give way to prices
for testing Rs 4500 levels in the weeks to follow.
• Guar seed and Guar gum continued to trade firm in domestic spot
markets across the country due to increased demand from crushers
and stockists and also strong crude oil prices. Profit booking at the
higher levels limited the uptrend for Guar futures even as firmness in
Crude oil prices likely to support market sentiments.
• According to traders, Stocks of Guar seed is depleting at faster pace
and ending stocks this season could drop to multi year low due to
rising demand for Guar gum from international market.
• Traders are expecting Guar seed and Guar gum to remain firm in
coming days due to decreased arrival pressure and good export
demand. Traders are holding stocks and are targeting price of around
Rs. 4750 to Rs. 4850 per quintal in upcoming months.
• According to First advance estimates released by Department of
Agriculture Rajasthan, 2017-18 Guar seed production is estimated 16.76
lakh tonnes as against 14.04 lakh tonnes.
• As per the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export
Development Authority’s (APEDA) report, Guar gum exports during
2017-18 (April–November) stood at 3.21 lakh tonnes as compared to
2.26 lakh tonnes in 2016-17 (April–November).
• According to Industry sources, the country has shipped around 3.25
lakh tonnes of Guar gum during 2016-17 and expected to cross 4 lakh
tonnes in 2017-18. Guar seed total availability for the marketing year
2017-18 is estimated around 17 lakh tonnes against 22-23 lakh tonnes
year due to lower production and carry-over stocks.
• According to experts, Guar seed and Guar gum is expected to trade
positive ahead, however much will depend on rally in crude oil prices
followed by export demand for Guar gum.
• Brent crude oil hit a more than three-year high, breaking through the
psychologically important $70 a barrel level for the first time since
December 2014.
• Overall fundamental score of 3.1 indicates that prices might be
consolidating with slight bullish tone due to higher demand.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
12-01-2018 05-01-2018
%Change
Bikaner 4300 4150 3.61
Jodhpur 4407 4200 4.92
Deesa 4225 4075 3.68
IMPORTANT LEVELS
S2 S1 CMP R1 R2
4075 4125 4325 4360 4500
Outlook: On a closing above Rs 4360 the prices will test Rs 4500 in the coming weeks.
2,900
3,200
3,500
3,800
4,100
4,400
May
-16
Au
g-1
6
No
v-16
Feb
-17
May
-17
Au
g-1
7
No
v-17
Jan
-18
Guarseed : Bikaner
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5) *
Increased demand from crushers and stockists
Bullish 25% 4
Strength in crude oil prices
Bullish 20% 3
Decline in arrivals of new crop in spot markets
Bullish 20% 3
Higher exports during current season
Bullish 20% 3
Profit booking at higher levels
Bearish 15% 2
Overall fundamental score 3.1
*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5. Bullish
Fundamentals
TECHNICAL PRICE ANALYSIS
GUAR
0
Date: 16-01-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Lack of any major fundamentals have led to sluggish movement in the
maize prices. Mild positivity was provided by the government expectation
of lower maize production in its advance estimates. However bumper
production in orissa has somewhat dampened the sentiments and
prevented any noticeable increase in prices. The ongoing sluggishness will
continue to prevent any sharp either-side move and the trading range will
be narrow in the coming couple of weeks. Rs1350 on the higher side and Rs
1280 on the lower side will the probable marks beyond which the prices are
unlikely to trade in the coming couple of weeks.
• As per the first advance estimates released by the government, the
kharif maize output for 2017-18 has been projected at 18.73 million
tonnes, lower than the high of 19.24 million tonnes in the previous
2016-17 season.
• As of 12th January the sowing in Maize has increased by about 3% to
15.26 Lakh Ha this year from 14.84 Lakh Ha Last year
• In the Davengere market a majority of the material is infested with
fungus which has led to the prices having a downward pressure on
market sentiments
• Starch feed makers have supported the Nizamabad spot market at
lower levels but could not have any major effect on prices.
• Maize crop from Tamil Nadu is expected to arrive soon which could
put pressure on market sentiments.
• Bumper production of maize in the state of Orissa has led to distress
selling at prices around 1100 which is well below the MSP of 1425 as
there is low demand of maize in the state and there aren’t many
purchasers in the mandis
• USDA in its 12th January report estimated the world corn production at
1044 MMT, about 3% lower from the 2016/17 output from 1075 MMt.
• USDA also lowered world’s corn ending stock estimates due to a
decrease in production estimate from 228 MMT to 206 MMT.
• US exports are projected to be lowered by about 17% to 48 MMT from
58 MMT this year.
• Overall fundamental score of 2.7 shows mild bearishness.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
12-01-2018 05-01-2018 %Change
Gullabbagh 1307.2 1302.5 0.36
Nizamabad 1300 1300 0.00
Delhi 1375 1330 3.38
IMPORTANT LEVELS
S2 S1 CMP R1 R2
1250 1280 1308 1330 1350
Outlook: Sideways trading will be seen in the range of Rs 1330-1280.
1100
1250
1400
1550
1700
Ap
r-16
Jun
-16
Au
g-1
6
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Mar
-17
May
-17
Au
g-1
7
Oct
-17
De
c-17
Maize-Feed/Industrial Grade : Delhi
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5) *
Ongoing arrivals Bearish 25% 2
Lower kharif production for 2017-18
Bullish 20% 4
Higher acreage in rabi sowing
Bearish 20% 2
Muted demand Bearish 20% 2
Lower world production compared to last year
Bullish 15% 4
Overall fundamental score 2.7
*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5. Bullish
Fundamentals
TECHNICAL PRICE ANALYSIS
MAIZE
0
Date: 16-01-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Official Production Estimates
First advance estimates 2017-18 &
previous years’ estimates :
First Advance Estimates 2017-18
MINIMUM SUPPORT PRICE (Rs/Qtl.)
Commodity 2016-17 2017-18
KHARIF
Paddy Common 1470 1550
paddy grade A 1510 1590
Jowar Hybrid 1625 1700
Jowar Maldandi 1650 1725
Bajra 1330 1425
Ragi 1725 1900
Maize 1365 1425
Tur 5050 5450*
Moong 5225 5575*
Urad 5000 5400*
Groundnut 4220 4450*
Sunflower seed 3950 4100 #
Soyabean black 2775 3050
Sesamum 5000 5300 #
Nigerseed 3825 4050 #
Cotton(Medium Staple) 3680 4020
Cotton(Long Staple) 4160 4320
RABI
Commodity 2016-17 2017-18
Wheat 1625 1735
Barley 1325 1410
Gram 4000* 4400
Masur (Lentil) 3950* 4250
Rapeseed/Mustard 3700* 4000
Safflower 3700* 4100
Wheat 1625 1735
*includes bonus of Rs 200 per quintal
# includes bonus of Rs 100 per quintal
Trade body puts soyabean supply at
104 lakh tonnes
India rice exports surge to record
on Bangladesh's strong import
appetite
India's palm oil imports flat at 7.22
lakh tonne: SEA
Crop insurance scheme likely to get
Rs 13,000 crore in FY19 budget
Farm sector to expand over 4% in
FY18: Farm Minister Radha Mohan
Singh
Wheat holding up to fog, ground
frost; caution on pest attack
Finance Minister launches options
trading in guarseed NCDEX
Southern sugar mills operating at
25% capacity due to chronic cane
shortage
Bumper groundnut crop triggers
price crash; farmers hold on to
stock
THE WEEK THAT WAS
Commodity Today Fortnight ago Month ago Year ago
15 Jan 2018 1 Jan 2018 15 Dec 2017 15 Jan 2017
Tur 4055 4135 3955 4550
Wheat 1812.9 1805.8 1809.6 2128.55
Paddy 3300 3200 3150 2750
Maize 1307.2 1296.55 1306.6 1650
Guar 4300 4125 3865 3305
Chana 4175 4275 4144.1 6700
Sugar 3312.25 3346.2 3950.45 3434.75
PRICE TRACKER
Link for commodity-wise and market-wise prices and arrivals:
http://agmarknet.gov.in/PriceAndA
rrivals/CommodityWiseDailyReport
2.aspx
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Date: 16-01-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
RABI SOWING PROGRESS- Link
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Date: 16-01-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Advisory Team
Basant Vaid Head: TCIG [email protected]
Sreedhar Nandam Vice President: SCM [email protected]
Research Team
Suresh Solanki Assistant Manager: TCIG [email protected]
Kamna Malhotra Economist: TCIG [email protected]
Akash Jaiswal Research Analyst: TCIG [email protected]
Ansh Aggarwal Senior Officer: Trade Support [email protected]
For any research queries, contact us at [email protected]
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This consultancy report has been prepared by National Collateral Management Services Limited (NCML) for the sole benefit of the addressee.
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misrepresentations made by others. Any recommendations, opinions and findings stated in this report are based on circumstances and facts as
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© National Collateral Management Services Limited (NCML) 2017