nci asheville presentation final 11 10...

Norton Consulting The Impacts of Changing Demographics on Retirement Community Development and Marketing Messages

Richard Norton

Prepared for: The American Association of

Retirement Communities Conference Asheville, North Carolina

Thursday November 10, 2016

Norton Consulting

§  Market and Financial Feasibility Studies §  Master Plan Development Studies

§  Tourism Strategic Development Plans

§  Resort & Hospitality Consulting

§  Active Adult Communities

§  Assisted Living §  Recreational Amenities (golf, wellness, farm-to-table, etc.)

Where we completed market research studies…

Tell me about you….

§  Private sector developers ____ §  Public sector tourism & relocation ____ §  Marketing and sales _______ §  Media ____ §  Other? ____

Presentation Outline §  Emerging market demographics 60+ §  Where do they want to live? §  What are they looking for in a place to live? §  How large is the market opportunity? §  Community and amenity preferences §  Keys to the successful marketing of Baby Boomers §  Images to attract Baby Boomers

EMERGING MARKET DEMOGRAPHICS !

32,020

17,772

11,459

00

24,017

35,086

53,813

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2005 2010 2015 2020

SilentGenVsBabyBoomersAge60-74(Populationin000's)

Silents BoomersSource:U.S.CensusBureau,PopulationDivision,ProjectionsofthePopulationbyAgeandSexfortheUnitedStates:2015to2060,Census 2000SummaryFile1and2010CensusSummaryFile1

100%

43%

25%

0%0%

57%

75%

100%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2010 2015 2020

Silents&Boomersasa%ofAgeSegment60-74

Silents BoomersSource:U.S.CensusBureau,PopulationDivision,ProjectionsofthePopulationbyAgeandSexfortheUnitedStates:2015to2060,Census 2000SummaryFile1and2010CensusSummaryFile1

A dramatic shift is underway in the discretionary real estate

market. All long-term planning, design and marketing should

target the emerging buyer profile for the next decade:

Seeking Experiences Health Conscious

Less Formal Free Spirited More Diverse More Active

PSYCHOGRAPHIC SHIFT

Impacted by the Great Depression Civic minded

Witnessed use of nuclear weapons Japanese attack Pearl Harbor

Manhattan Project begins D-Day

Atomic Bomb dropped on Japan

Disciplined, Formal Conservative

Exclusivity and Prestige Visible Wealth

Structured routine Spent time close friends and family

Focus on family and community activities

Silents (1930-1945)

Boomers (1946-1965)

CULTURAL

LIFESTYLE

PERSPECTIVE

Post World War II The TV Generation John F. Kennedy assassination The Vietnam War Nixon resignation Woodstock Civil Rights Movement Rebellious, Casual Free-Spirited Inclusive and More Diverse Not showy, hidden wealth Seek out new experiences More active and diverse peer group Intense focus on health and wellness

Elvis Presley, Buddy Holly Frank Sinatra, Johnny Cash, Dean Martin

Louis Armstrong, Nat King Cole Duke Ellington, Count Bessie

Candid Camera, Who Said That? I love Lucy, Howdy Doody Show,

Mickey Mouse Club, Tarzan, The Ed Sullivan Show

Golf 2 – 3 times per week

Fishing and hunting Limited fitness

Silents (1930-1945)

Boomers (1946-1965)

MUSIC

FITNESS

PERSONA

The Beatles, Ozzy Osborne, Jimmy Buffet The Rolling Stones, Billy Joel, David Bowie, Tom Petty, The Beach Boys AC/DC, Jimi Hendrix, Bob Dylan Twilight Zone, Green Acres, Beverly Hillbillies, Adams Family, Lassie, American Bandstand, Dragnet, Andy Griffith, M.A.S.H., Bewitched, The Man from U.N.C.L.E. Biking, hiking, paddleboarding, surfing, Daily fitness routine Golf occasionally

TELEVISION

Average Actual and Projected Future Retirement Age

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000RetirementageofUSPopulation,(Year2000- 2040)

RetirementAge62-79 RetirementAge66-79Source:USCensusBureau,NortonConsulting,Inc.

Where We Are Today

(2016)

We are at the beginning of a giant wave of Retirees!

Implications, Rapidly Growing Retirement-Age Population

•  Huge incremental growth! •  Creating strong demand for a variety housing types and

lifestyle accommodations §  Affordable §  Second Home §  Retirement Home §  Graduated Care / Assisted Living §  Hospitality / Resort Concepts

Where do they want to live?

63%

37%

MostStayingPut

DoNotPlantoMove PlantoMove

Most Baby Boomers plan to retire where they are currently living

Source: USA Today

62%

38%

AgeInPlace

HaveLivedInCurrentHomefor10+Years <than10years

Source: USA Today

For those that do want to move; where do they want to go and why?

12,342 15,929 11,85917840 15,452 12,308

18,477 15,86613,380

14,488 14,64013,553

20,724 19,78615,387

27,208 22,36517,848

37,924 37,056

28,339

39,011 43,911

29,781

38,514 38,681

32,820

95,678 100,328

79,185

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

2010 2011 2012

60-75YearOldsMovingintoState2010-2012(top10states)

Florida

Arizona

California

Texas

NC

Georgia

Ohio

Pennsylvania

SC

Nevada

Source: 2010, 2011, 2012 ACS 1 Year Survey

230,0

00 23

6,000

240,0

00

244,0

00

248,0

00

251,0

00

251,0

00

251,0

00

251,0

00

252,0

00

252,0

00

252,0

00

252,0

00

249,0

00

248,0

00

215,000

220,000

225,000

230,000

235,000

240,000

245,000

250,000

255,000

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

National New Home Demand Projection by Source Market from Households Ages 55-74 (2016-2030)

Source: US Census, ACS PUMS, RCLCO Source: US Census, ACS PUMS, RCLCO

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

$75-$99.9K $100-$124.9K $125-$149.9K $150-$174.9K $200K+

ChangeinNumberofHouseholdsbyIncomeandAgeCohort2016to2021

Ages55-64 Ages65-74 Ages75+Source: Nielsen, Claritas, 2016

Same City 22%

Same State, Different City

22%

Different State49%

Different Country

7%

Del Webb Baby Boomer Survey: If Household Were to Move, Where Would Home be Located?

4.58

4.3

4.05

4.01

3.95

3.87

3.83

3.4 3.6 3.8 4 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8

Living in a safe environment

Overall reputation of the area

Close proximity to quality doctors andhospitals

Proximity to shopping and restaurants

Having acess to a wide variety of amenities

A variety of housing options with differentprice points

Having access to water and nature

Criteria for Selecting a Retirement Location

Source: RCLCO Analysis of Survey Conducted December, 2012

Live South, which is more focused on Florida and SE Coastal communities, the Amenities that Rank Highest Among Baby Boomers were Walking, Retail, Beach, Swimming, and Bicycling

Baby Boomer Purchase Preferences (in Southeast)

Amenities/ Location % With a Preference

Walking 83%Shopping Close By 67%Beach 62%Swimming 60%Bicycling 51%Waterfront 46%Gardening 44%Golf 42%Boating 35%Gated Community 35%Private Golf Club 11%Housing % With a Preference

New Custom Home 46%Home Site/ Lot 29%Maintenance Free Home (attached) 28%

Note: Age Distribution of Respondents: 45-55 = 29%, 56+ = 69%Source: LiveSouth attendees January-March 2010

Preferred Amenities Retirement Location


3.8

3.55

3.45

3.44

3.35

3.34

3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9

Parks/ Green Spaces

Paved trail system for walking, jogging,biking, skating

Main Street Village Center with retailservices

Outdoor Resort-Style Pool

Cardiovascular equipment and freeweights for fitness training

Natural (unpaved) trail system for hikingand walking

How Important is Age Restricted


5%11%

25%

19%

40%

On a Scale of 1-5, Indicate How Important it is that Your Next Home Be Located in a Community

Restricted to Residents 55+

Very Important-5

4

Neutral-3

2

Not Important-1

How Important is Age Restricted


9%

43%48%

20%

35%45%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%

Prefer Age-Restricted Prefer All Ages No Preference

If You Were to Move, Which of the Following Best Describes Your

Preferences for a New Community?

50 Yrs Old 64 Yrs Old

Keys to Marketing to Baby Boomers What they want: §  Quick fixes that require little change and instant improvement. §  They do not like bureaucracy, §  But…. give them a cause to fight for and they will give their all. §  How to address price sensitivity §  Focus on building value and they will be less price sensitive if they

believe they are getting a superior product and good value. §  Boomers like §  Options and flexibility. §  Health is a major concern for this generation

Marketing to the Generations; Journal of Behavioral Studies in Business; Authors: Kaylene Williams and Robert Page

What they want: While the group may be aging, they do not want to be reminded of that fact, that is, they are focused on anti-aging and breaking the mold of what 50 looks like

In accordance, marketers should NEVER USE these seven words for Boomers: §  Senior Citizen §  Retiree §  Aging §  Golden Years §  Silver Years §  Mature and §  Prime Time of Life


What they want: §  Looking for the fountain of youth and slowing down weight gain are increasingly important, as are natural and organic foods.

§  They like things that are relevant to them and appropriate to their life stage, not age.

§  For example, family values are very important to this generation.

§  Many are becoming Empty Nesters in that children are leaving home, marrying, and having grandchildren.


What they want:

As the Sandwich Generation, many are caregivers of their aging parents and children.

§  Marketers should let them know that they are in charge of their own decisions.

§  Their focus is on “Me” and they feel entitled to a good life. Having a sense of fun, treating everyone differently, and understanding changing values are important to this generation.


What they want: Important products and services are §  Plastic surgery, botox, baldness treatments, Viagra, §  Health clubs and spas, cosmetics (male and female), hair coloring, and

health foods. §  For example, Progresso has launched a new high-fiber soup line. Another health-related product area revolves around hearing loss due to natural aging and loud music [43, 44]. They are very attracted to new products and technologies that will make their lives easier, save them time, and will not rip them off. Baby Boomers are a good market for travel and adventure vacations Experience Seekers!


What they want: In terms of communication, Baby Boomers like information presented in terms of §  Categories and options, i.e., simple facts with which to make a decision. §  Personal gratification and public recognition are important to this generation, that

is, they respond to statements such as “You’re important to our success”, “Your contribution is unique and important to us”, and “We need you.”

§  It is effective to use word-of-mouth communications from trusted advisors and friends to sell this generation. In addition, a marketer could hold an open house or a local health fair at their business or practice with food and drinks and give out health information.

§  Social gatherings and professional seminars can be used to create word-of-mouth advertising.

§  Use communication methods such as social and recognition events, professional advisors, direct mail, face-to-face conversation, and e-mail.


What they want: They are increasingly environmentally conscious and supportive of the green movement

§  Green products and services. However, they want cost savings from green products first

§  Followed by environmental benefits as a second payoff In terms of communicating to Baby Boomers, they like

§  The convenience and customization of the Internet, §  Especially for health information, online job sites, and joining social

networking sites. §  Internet Usage is very high; use the Internet as a communication vehicle. §  General uptake of mobile phone technology is high; text messaging;

high use of FaceTime, Skype calls to children and grandchildren §  Internet, social networks (Facebook is very effective as well as blogs).


IMAGES – TO ATTRACT BABY BOOMERS

TECNICAL SEO

GOOGLE FACEBOOK

Targeted marketplace for buyers

IMAGES TO ATTRACT BABY BOOMERS

THANK YOU !!!!

The American Association of Retirement Communities Conference; Asheville, NC

nci asheville presentation final 11 10...

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