NCEP’s Environmental Modeling Center’s Marine Modeling Branch

– Collaboration with Navy, US Army Corps of Engineers:

• US Navy: wave ensemble and ocean modeling (Backbone).

• USACE: wave modeling (possibly + surge).• Co-development of wave model physics

(WAVEWATCH III) through NOPP• Co-development of real-time ocean forecast model

(HyCOM) through NOPP

Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Modeling System

Promote closer ties between research and operations

Develop an advanced mesoscale forecast and assimilation system

Concept:

Design for 1-10 km horizontal grids

Portable and efficient on parallel computers

Well suited for a broad range of applications

Community model with direct path to operations

Collaborators: NCEP/EMC, NCAR, AFWA, NOAA/ESRL, U. Okla.

NCEP creates 4 specific lat/lon grids (see figure) of its North American Model (NAM) output for AFWA on an operational basis (4 times per day out to 84 hours)

The NAM is the 12 km Non-hydrostatic Model version of the WRF.

Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Modeling System

Land Information System (LIS)• NOAA-NASA-USAF collaboration

– M. Ek (NOAA)– C. Peters-Lidard (NASA)– J. Eylander (USAF)

• LIS hosts – Land surface models– Land surface data assimilationand provides– Regional or global land surface conditions for use

in • Coupled NWP models• Stand-alone land surface applications

Analysis--------------

Ocean-------------

Wind Waves--------------

LSM--------------

AQ--------------Ens. Gen.--------------Ecosystem--------------

Etc

Physics(1,2,3)

ESMF Utilities(clock, error handling, etc)

Bias CorrectorPost processor & Product Generator

VerificationResolution change

1-11-21-32-12-22-3

ESMF Superstructure(component definitions, “mpi” communications, etc)

Multi-component ensemble+

Stochastic forcing

Coupler1Coupler2Coupler3Coupler4Coupler5Coupler6Coupler7

Etc.

Dynamics(1,2)

Application Driver

NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS)(uses standard ESMF compliant software)

* Earth System Modeling Framework (NCAR/CISL, NASA/GMAO, Navy (NRL), NCEP/EMC), NOAA/GFDL

2, 3 etc: NCEP supported thru NUOPC, NASA, AFWA or NOAA institutional commitmentsComponents are: Dynamics (spectral, FV, NMM, FIM, ARW, FISL, COAMPS…)/Physics (GFS, NRL, NCAR, GMAO, ESRL…)

Atmospheric Model

The NUOPC Concept: A Cooperative Effort

NOAA

NAVY

AIR FORCE

R&D COMMUNITY

NUOPCNASA

OAR NSF

ONR

NUOPC Description

• The NUOPC partnership exists to enable a Tri-Agency joint global atmospheric ensemble forecast system

• NUOPC is an integration of ongoing efforts coordinated by a Tri-agency management organization

• NUOPC is not:– An R&D or acquisition project– A unified management system for operations

or acquisition– A unification of agency missions

Focused Single National EffortThrough Coordination

NSF

Navy & NOAA R&D

AMS

Academia

OtherAgencies

NASANCEP FNMOCAFWA

NUOPC

Operational Centers

NUOPC Vision (2015)• Tri-Agency partnership to address common

operational global NWP needs• National NWP system with interoperable

components built on common standards and framework (ESMF)

• Managed operational ensemble diversity • Joint ensemble

– Most probable forecast -- e.g. high impact weather

– Mission Specific ensemble products• National global NWP research agenda to

accelerate science and technology infusion

The NUOPC Partnership• Coordinated technology development for future systems

• Interoperable model architecture to allow for exchange of technology at the component level

• Common Developmental test structure with available tools, support and access to data, data assimilation and developmental models (DTC or VTC)

• Prioritization of common operational needs

• Aligned transition processes

• Joint ensemble system with managed diversity

– Share operational computing costs

– Maintain capability of each agency to meet Agency unique operational requirements through driving downstream applications

– Significant acceleration in operational performance

• Project Manager responsible to Tri-Agency Executive Steering Group (ESG)

NUOPC Implementation ScheduleFY2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Prelim Phase I

Implementation Phase II FOC

Beta Test Phase III

STAFFING

CODE CONV.

MGMT REPORTG MOA

INIT.STANDARDS SOFTWARE CONVERSION

OPERATIONS

OUTREACH

MAINTAIN

Full Staff

Common Rqmts, Rsch Agenda DTC/VTC

ENS OPS TESTCONOPS, COMMS, IA

DECISION BRIEF TO PRINCIPALS EXTERNAL RESEARCH WORKSHOP

FOC

Quarterly Updates to Principals

STANDARDS

PARTICIPATION

TT PM, TEMPS

IOC-2IOC-1

PROTOTYPE OPS