nbc news surveymonkey toplines and methodology 6 13-6 19

7/26/2019 NBC News SurveyMonkey Toplines and Methodology 6 13-6 19

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NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll

Embargoed for release Tuesday, June 21, 2016 at 6:00AM

The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll tracks voter preferences and attitudes on a weekly basis throughout

the 2016 election cycle. Results are released every Tuesday at 6:00AM and are among registered voters.

Results for the week of June 13, 2016 through June 19, 2016 are among a national sample of 18,208 adults aged 18 and over,including 16,135 registered voters (+/- 1.1%), 4,364 registered Republican voters (+/-2.0%) and 5,492 registered Democratic voters

(+/-1.8%). Complete error estimates can be found in the methodology section below.

TOPLINE RESULTS

Which one of the following issues matters MOST to you right now?

Foreign

Policy

The

environment Terrorism Immigration

Health

care

Jobs and the

Economy Education Other

No

answer

6/136/19 4 8 23 7 14 29 9 5 -

6/66/12 4 9 12 7 17 37 10 5 1

5/306/5 4 8 12 7 17 35 11 5 -

5/235/29 4 8 13 7 15 36 10 5 1

5/165/22 4 8 13 6 16 36 12 5 1

5/95/15 4 9 12 7 16 35 11 5 1

5/25/8 4 9 12 7 15 36 12 5 1

4/25-5/1 4 9 14 7 16 33 11 6 1

4/18-4/24 4 9 14 8 15 32 11 6 1

4/11-4/17 4 8 16 7 15 32 11 5 1

4/44/10 4 8 17 8 14 31 11 6 1

3/284/3 5 8 19 7 15 32 10 5 1

3/213/27 4 8 18 7 13 32 10 5 1

3/143/20 4 9 12 7 15 36 11 5 1

3/73/13 4 8 13 8 16 35 10 6 1

2/293/6 4 9 13 7 16 35 11 5 1

2/222/28 5 8 14 7 16 34 10 5 12/152/21 5 8 16 7 15 33 10 5 1

2/82/14 4 8 16 8 14 34 10 5 1

2/12/7 5 9 15 7 16 32 10 5 -

1/251/31 5 9 17 8 13 32 10 5 -

1/181/24 4 8 19 7 15 33 10 5 1

1/111/17 5 8 21 8 13 29 10 4 1

1/41/10 5 8 23 8 13 28 8 5 1

12/28-1/3 6 8 23 8 14 27 9 5 1


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Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove No answer

6/136/19 30 21 12 37 1

6/66/12 29 22 12 36 1

5/306/5 27 24 12 37 1

5/235/29 27 23 12 37 -

5/165/22 27 23 13 36 1

5/95/15 28 23 13 35 15/25/8 28 23 12 36 1

4/255/1 27 24 13 36 1

4/18-4/24 26 24 13 37 1

4/11-4/17 28 24 12 37 1

4/44/10 27 23 13 37 1

3/284/3 28 24 13 35 1

3/213/27 27 24 13 35 1

3/143/20 27 24 13 35 1

3/73/13 27 23 13 36 1

2/293/6 27 23 12 37 1

2/222/28 27 23 12 37 1

2/152/21 26 22 12 39 -

2/82/14 26 24 12 38 1

2/12/7 27 23 12 38 1

1/251/31 25 22 12 40 1

1/181/24 26 24 14 36 -

1/111/17 26 22 12 40 1

1/41/10 23 22 12 42 1

12/281/3 23 25 12 40 1

In politics today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent? Republican Democrat Independent No answer

6/136/19 28 34 36 2

6/66/12 28 35 36 1

5/306/5 29 35 36 1

5/235/29 28 33 37 15/165/22 29 34 35 1

5/95/15 28 35 35 1

5/2 - 5/8 32 35 31 2

4/25-5/1 28 36 35 1

4/18-4/24 28 35 36 1

4/11-4/17 29 34 35 1

4/44/10 30 34 35 1

3/284/3 29 35 35 2

3/213/27 30 33 36 2

3/143/20 30 36 32 2

3/73/13 31 35 33 2

2/293/6 32 36 31 2

2/222/28 31 35 33 2

2/152/21 31 35 33 12/82/14 30 35 33 2

2/12/7 30 35 33 2

1/251/31 31 34 33 2

1/181/24 28 34 36 1

1/111/17 31 34 33 2

1/41/10 33 32 34 2

12/281/3 30 34 34 2


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As of today, do you lean more to the Republican Party or more to the Democratic Party? [AMONG IND OR DONT KNOW FOR

PARTY]Republican

Party

Democratic

Party Neither No answer

6/136/19 32 28 36 4

6/66/12 33 28 36 3

5/306/5 33 26 37 3

5/235/29 32 28 37 3

5/165/22 31 29 37 3

5/95/15 33 28 36 3

5/25/8 32 32 35 1

4/25-5/1 32 27 38 3

4/18-4/24 35 27 35 3

4/11-4/17 33 30 34 3

4/4 4/10 33 28 35 4

3/284/3 31 29 38 2

3/213/27 31 28 37 4

3/143/20 31 28 39 2

3/73/13 31 27 41 2

2/29

3/6 32 29 36 22/222/28 34 28 36 2

2/152/21 38 28 33 2

2/82/14 34 28 35 3

2/12/7 35 30 33 2

1/251/31 34 26 37 3

1/181/24 33 27 39 2

1/111/17 36 26 37 2

1/41/10 36 26 36 1

12/281/3 37 24 37 1

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates, for whom would you vote?

Hillary Clinton,the Democrat

Donald Trump,the Republican

Noanswer

6/136/19 48 42 10

6/66/12 49 42 9

5/306/5 48 44 9

5/235/29 47 45 8

5/165/22 47 43 9

5/95/15 48 45 7

5/25/8 49 44 7

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates for whom would you vote?

Donald

Trump, the

Republican

Hillary

Clinton, the

Democrat

Gary

Johnson,

the

Libertarian

Jill Stein,

the

Green

Party

No

answer

6/136/19 38 42 9 5 7

6/66/12 38 42 9 5 6

6/26/5 40 39 9 4 8


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Suppose President Obama were allowed to run for a third term. If these were the candidates in the presidential election this

November, for whom would you vote?

Who do you think will win the 2016 presidential election?

Hillary Clinton Donald Trump No answer

6/136/19 56 38 7

6/66/12 54 40 6

5/306/5 49 44 7

5/235/29 47 46 7

5/16-5/22 51 42 7

5/95/15 51 43 6

Whose endorsement of Donald Trump would matter the most to you?

Whose endorsement of Hillary Clinton would matter the most to you?

Do you think the Republican Party

Do you think the Democratic Party

Donald Trump Barrack Obama No answer

6/136/19 43 53 5

George W. Bush Paul Ryan John McCain Mitt Romney No answer

6/136/19 26 22 17 13 23

Bernie Sanders Barack Obama

Elizabeth

Warren

No

answer

6/136/19 39 25 12 24

Is united

now

Is divided now

but will unite

by November

Will still be

divided in

November

No

answer

6/136/19 7 27 61 5

5/235/29 9 34 55 3

Is united

now

Is divided now

but will unite

by November

Will still be

divided in

November

No

answer6/136/19 21 40 33 6

5/235/29 16 43 38 3


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Did you vote in the presidential primary or caucuses held in your state this year?

Which candidate did you vote for in your states Democratic primary or caucus? [AMONG THOSE WHO VOTED IN DEM PRIMARY]

Which candidate did you vote for in your states Republican primary or caucus? [AMONG THOSE WHO VOTED IN REP PRIMARY]

Yes: voted in

Democratic

primary/caucus

Yes: voted in

Republican

primary/caucus

No: didnt vote in

the presidential

primary or caucus

No

answer

6/136/19 35 30 32 3

Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders

Martin

OMalley

Another candidate

(please specify) No answer

6/136/19 53 42 1 1 2

Donald Trump Ted Cruz John Kasich Marco Rubio

Another candidate

(please specify) No answer

6/136/19 47 22 14 11 4 2


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METHODOLOGY

The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking data for the week of June 13, 2016 through June 19, 2016 was conducted online among a

national sample of 18,208 adults aged 18 and over, including 16,135 who say they are registered to vote. Respondents for this survey were selected

from the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Data for this week has been weighted for age,

race, sex, education, region, and voter registration status using the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor StatisticsCurrent Population Survey to

reflect the demographic composition of the United States.

Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error

can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and

measurement error.

To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap confidence interval to produce an error estimate.

The bootstrap confidence interval for this survey is plus or minus 1.0 percentage point for the full sample and plus or minus 1.1 percentage point

for registered voters.

To calculate the bootstrap confidence interval we use the weighted data to generate 5000 independent samples and calculate the 95% confidence

intervals for the weighted average. When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should be taken into consideration in

much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of sampling error.

Group Unweighted N Plus or minus

Total sample 18,208 1.0

Total RVs 16,135 1.1

Republican RVs 4,364 2.0

Democrat RVs 5,492 1.8

Very conservative 1,551 3.6

Conservative 4,314 2.0

Moderate 7,183 1.5

Liberal 3,143 2.3

Very liberal 1,494 3.4

Male 9,196 1.3

Female 9,012 1.4

18-24 1,132 3.8

25-34 2,181 2.7

35-44 2,763 2.5

45-54 3,975 2.1

55-64 4,522 1.9

65+ 3,635 2.2

White 13,494 1.1

Black 1,539 3.3

Hispanic 1,616 3.3

Other 1,559 3.4

Income:

nbc news surveymonkey toplines and methodology 6 13-6 19

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