natural gas, three systemswecmex.org.mx/presentaciones/2012_mexico-gas.pdfnatural gas, three systems...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 2: NATURAL GAS, THREE SYSTEMSwecmex.org.mx/presentaciones/2012_Mexico-Gas.pdfNATURAL GAS, THREE SYSTEMS Jean-Marie BOURDAIRE jmbourdaire@sfr.fr Colegio de México May 21, 2012 CONTENT](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042217/5ec0e5c5d7f40317b962cd9c/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
CONTENT
• World generalities• North-East Asian LNG imports• Europe PPL & LNG imports• North America balance• Conclusions
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WORLD GENERALITIES
BP reserves, demand and supplyAIE Perspectives to 2035
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With this world market structure, gas is in competition with regional referenceswithout mutual price adjustment and thus no international gas price marker
WESTERN EUROPE
EUROPE
JAPAN / SOUTH KOREA
EAST ASIA
REGIONAL NATGAS MARKETS• Natural gas trade is limited by rigid, costly infrastructures, which
limit trade over very long distances• No world gas market but various national and regional gas markets• Three Main Regional Gas Markets with Marginal Links
NORTH AMERICA
UNITED STATES
NorwayRussiaAlgeria
IndonesiaAustralia
Middle EastCanada
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NATURAL GAS CHAIN
Transport Sector(“oil products”)
Transport Sector(“oil products”)
Flared Gas
GrossProduction
Re-injected Gas
Processing
DistributionNetwork
DistributionNetwork
LiquefactionPlant LNG Tanker
RegasificationTerminal
Transportation Pipeline
PropaneButanePentane & Heavy Fractions
IndustrySector
Commercial Sector
ResidentialSector
Power ProductionSector
PetrochemicalsSector
Transport Sector(CNG)
IndustrySector
Commercial Sector
ResidentialSector
Power ProductionSector
PetrochemicalsSector
Transport Sector(CNG)
Dry SweetNatural GasDry Sweet
Natural Gas
GTL plant
High Quality LiquidsNaphtha
Kerosene, Gasoil
High Pressure
Low Pressure
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WORLD GAS CONSUMPTION (BCM/Y)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Asia-Pacific
Africa
Middle-East
Former Soviet Union
EUROPE OCDE
S-C America
North America
Recent averagegrowth rate2,3%/y
WORLD GAS CONSUMPTION (BCM/Y)
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WORLD GAS CONSUMPTION (BCM/Y)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Asia-Pacific
Africa
Middle-East
Former Soviet Union
EUROPE OCDE
S-C America
North America
Recent averagegrowth rate2,3%/y
WORLD GAS PRODUCTION (BCM/Y)
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Regional Natural Gas & LNG Prices - Feb 2012
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20Ja
n-04
Jul-0
4
Jan-
05
Jul-0
5
Jan-
06
Jul-0
6
Jan-
07
Jul-0
7
Jan-
08
Jul-0
8
Jan-
09
Jul-0
9
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
$/MMBtu
NBP IFERC HH Monthly Japan avg LNG European Gas Contract
REGIONAL GAS PRICES ($/kcf)A growing disconnection among the four price systems
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NORTHEAST ASIA LNG
High JCC-indexed prices andincreasing quantities
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Traditional v. Emerging Asian LNG Importers
-
5
10
15
20
2520
07
2008
2009
2010
2011
BCFD
Emerging Traditional
Japan, South Korea, Taiwan
China, India, Kuwait, Dubai & Thailand
EAST OF SUEZ LNG IMPORTERS
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ASIA-PACIFIC LNG IMPORTS (BCF/D)
5
10
15
Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
China, Japan,South Korea,and Taiwan(interpolatedbetween end-02 and end-07)
LNG imports fellbecause of the
economic crisis
FAR-EAST LNG IMPORTS (BCF/D)
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JAPANESE CRUDE COCKTAIL OR JCC ($/B)
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
JAPANESE CRUDE COCKTAIL ($/B)
LNG was first imported in Japan,to replace the blend of regionalwaxy heavy low-sulfur crudesused for direct burning in theindustrial and power boilers.
This is why LNG is JCC-indexed
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ASIA-PACIFIC PRICING SYSTEM
• For the Asia-Pacific LNG imports, prices are based on LT contracts indexed on the JCC
• JCC was the fuel at the margin for Japanese large boilers because HFO imports were forbidden (to protect the refinery industry) and low sulfur fuels were required (for environmental reasons)
• To protect the LNG producers when JCC was low, a premium floor was added with, as a counterparty, a JCC multiplying factor smaller than 1
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LNG IMPORTS IN CHINA (MT/MONTH)
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
Still small but rising rapidly
CHINA LNG IMPORTS
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AVERAGE LNG PRICE IN CHINA VERSUS JCC
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-130,0
0,3
0,6
0,9
1,2
1,5
1,8
JCC in $/MBtuAverage LNG priceGas as a % of JCC
Average imported LNG price versus JCCsuggeste a smoothed "collar" formulawith a low price-cap and ~3-month lag
PRICE OF CHINESE LNG IMPORTS
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JAPAN LNG IMPORTSLNG IMPORTS IN JAPAN (MT/MONTH)
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
Fukushima
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AVERAGE LNG PRICE IN JAPAN VERSUS JCC
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-130,0
0,3
0,6
0,9
1,2
1,5
1,8
JCC in $/MBtuAverage LNG priceGas as a % of JCC
Average imported LNG price versus JCCsuggeste a smoothed "collar" formulawith a low price-cap and ~3-month lag
PRICE OF JAPAN LNG IMPORTS
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LNG IMPORTS IN KOREA (MT/MONTH)
0
1
2
3
4
5
Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
KOREA LNG IMPORTS
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AVERAGE LNG PRICE IN KOREA VERSUS JCC
0
5
10
15
20
25
J-01 J-02 J-03 J-04 J-05 J-06 J-07 J-08 J-09 J-10 J-11 J-12 J-130,5
0,8
1,1
1,4
1,7
2,0
JCC in $/MBtu
Average LNG price
Gas as a % of JCC
Average imported LNG price versus JCCsuggeste a smoothed "collar" formulawith low price-cap and ~3 months lag
PRICE OF KOREA LNG IMPORTS
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LNG IMPORTS IN TAIWAN (MT/MONTH)
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
TAIWAN LNG IMPORTS
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AVERAGE LNG PRICE IN TAIWAN VERSUS JCC
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-130,3
0,6
0,9
1,2
1,5
1,8
JCC in $/MBtu
Average LNG price
LNG versus JCC
LNG/JCC$/MBtu
PRICE OF TAIWAN LNG IMPORTS
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LNG Production vs Capacity
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40Ja
n-08
May
-08
Sep-
08
Jan-
09
May
-09
Sep-
09
Jan-
10
May
-10
Sep-
10
Jan-
11
May
-11
Sep-
11
Jan-
12
Bcf/d
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Nameplate Production Utilization
LNG PRODUCTION VS. CAPACITY
The LNG marketis tightening
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LNG SHIPPING RATESThe LNG shipping
market is alsotightening
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Asia Pacific Contracts signed since March '11
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0Ja
pan
Kore
a
Chin
a
Indi
a
Taiw
an
Sing
apor
e
Mal
aysi
a
Thai
land
Paki
stan
MTA
SPA HOA Share MOU Framework S-T
NEW LNG CONTRACTS SINCE FUKUSHIMA (MARCH-11)
Japan and India dominate
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CONCLUSIONS ASIA-PACIFIC
• Some countries like Korea did succeed to lower their LNG supply cost but oil-indexation will likely remain, especially in the post-Fukushima context
• The nuclear crisis will add new LNG requirements in Japan and Western Europe (e.g. in Germany) to replace nuclear, pushing LNG prices up
• High LNG prices make unconventional attractive but the lack of liquids in “dry” gas such as Australian CBM, and controlled domestic prices reduce the incentives
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NWE EUROPE: PPL & LNG
THE UK SPOT MARKET (LNG) ANDTHE CONTINENTAL LT PPL CONTRACTS
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SEASONAL PROFILES
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LOAD PROFILE PER GAS SECTOR
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RUSSIA: REGIONAL RESERVES
528,1453,6
90,4 90 80,536,5 31,6 28,1 10,712,4
Kara-Yamal
West Siberia
Volga-Urals Timan-Pechora
Sakhaline & Okhotsk
Caspian North Caucasus
Pre CaspianEast Siberia Barents
-600,0
-500,0
-400,0
-300,0
-200,0
-100,0
0,0
100,0
200,0
300,0
400,0
500,0
600,0
Tcf
Already extracted
Remaining (2P+PVR)
496
0,1 6,4 24,914,551,4 2,3
(Tcf)A lot of available reserves when
EU gas demand will increase
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Barentssea
Balticsea
Blacksea
Karskoye Sea Laptevsea
BeringseaSea of Okhotsk
Sea of Japan
East Siberiansea
Chukchi Sea
Azov sea
Caspian sea
Tyumen
Krasnoyarsk
Irkutsk
Komsomolsk-na-AmureVolgograd
Moscow
St. Petersburg
Kazan
Perm
Novosibirsk
Petrovsk Orenburg
Ukhta
Yamal
Yamburg
Surgut
UrengoiNoyabrsk
Yakutsk
Novokuznetsk
Kemerovo
Sakhalin
Far EastEast Siberia
Astrakhan
FIELDS TO BE DEVELOPED
Shtokman Production from: 2013Reserves: 3,6 tcm
Kharasavejskoe Production from: 2014Reserves: 1,3 tcm
BovanenskoeProduction from: 2011Reserves: 4,4 tcm
S.-Kamennomyskoe Production from: 2015+Reserves: 0,4 tcm
MedvezhjeProduction from: 1972Reserves: 0,5 tcm
UrengojskoeProduction from: 1978Reserves: 5,1 tcm
OrenburgskoeProduction from: 1974Reserves: 0,7 tcm
AstrahanskoeProduction from: 1987Reserves: 2,4 tcm
KomsomolskoeProduction from: 1993Reserves: 0,4 tcm
Zap. TarkosalinskoeProduction from: 1996Reserves: 0,4 tcm
GubkinskoeProduction from: 1999Reserves: 0,4 tcm
Vost. TarkosalinskoeProduction from: 1998Reserves: 0,35 tcm
Kovyktinskoe5
Production from: 2017 Reserves: 2 tcm
ChayndinskoeProduction from: 2016 Reserves: 0,4 tcm
Lunskoe (Sakhalin 2)3
Production from: 2008Reserves: 0,6 tcm
Severo Urengojskoe1
Production from: 2001 Reserves: 0,3 tcm
BolshehetskayaProduction from: 2004Reserves: 0,4 tcm
Kamennomyskoe MoreProduction from: 2015+Reserves: 0,5 tcm
YamburgskoeProduction from: 1986 Reserves: 3,7 tcm
ZapolyarnoeProduction from: 2001Reserves: 3,1 tcm
YurharovskoeProduction from: 2003 Reserves:0,65 tcm
Yuzno-Russkoe4
Production from: 2008Reserves: 0,8 tcm
Beregovoe2
Production from: 2003Reserves: 0,3 tcm
Planed for 2010
Planed forafter 2010
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PLANNED 2010 EUROPE SUPPLY
Egypt 10(LNG)
Source: Total
Qatar 34Oman 3
(LNG)
2010
Libya 9(LNG 1)
Nigeria 17(LNG)
Production(inc. Norway)
317
Demand650
Import Pipe (Contracted) 260
ContractedLNG 90
Of whichNorway Pipe 124
Iran 8
Azerbaijan 5
Algeria 76(LNG 22)
Europe = EU 35Alternative
LNG
in BcmPipelines
Russia 186
Norway 2(LNG)
Export US 4
Trinidad 4(LNG)
For illustrative purpose only
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EUROPEAN NET IMPORTSEUROPEAN NET IMPORTS (BCF/D)
10
15
20
25
30
J-01 J-02 J-03 J-04 J-05 J-06 J-07 J-08 J-09 J-10 J-11 J-12 J-13
Note the strong winter seasonalityNote the strong winter seasonality
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UK GAS DECOUPLED SINCE 2009UK 12-MONTH STRIP AND BRENT ($/MBTU)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
NBP spot price
Brent weekly
UK 12-month strip
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UK GAS FUTURES ($/MBTU)
0
5
10
15
20
25
May-03
Nov-03
May-04
Nov-04
May-05
Nov-05
May-06
Nov-06
May-07
Nov-07
May-08
Nov-08
May-09
Nov-09
May-10
Nov-10
May-11
Nov-11
May-12
Nov-12
May-13
5-May-03
6-Oct-03
5-Apr-04
5-Jul-04
4-Oct-04
7-Mar-05
4-Jul-05
31-Oct-05
15-May-06
13-Nov-06
18-Dec-06
3-Sep-07
05-Nov-07
21-Jan-08
17-Mar-08
30-juin-08
04-Aug-08
17-Nov-08
9-Mar-09
15-Jul-09
11-nov-09
17-feb-10
3-nov-10
2-mars-11
13-juil-11
30-nov-11
28-mars-12
THE STORY OF UK FUTURES
Prices fell as cheapQatar spot LNG wasplenty, but less spot
availability has drivenspot prices up recently
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BRENT VS. CONTINENTAL AND UK NATURAL GAS PRICES ($/MBTU)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
Weekly spot price at NBP
Average CIS-NL-NW price
Average continental price
Weekly spot price of Brent
source: WGI
BRENT VS. UK SPOT ANDLT CONTINENTAL GAS PRICES
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EU GAS DECOUPLED SINCE 2009EU AVERAGE MONTHLY BORDER PRICE ($/MBTU)
0,0
2,5
5,0
7,5
10,0
12,5
15,0
17,5
J-02 J-03 J-04 J-05 J-06 J-07 J-08 J-09 J-10 J-11 J-12 J-13
Average imported European gas price
75% of 5-month lagged Brent(smoothed over 5 months)
Note the discoupling thanks to the coming
of cheap spot LNG
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EUROPEAN SPOT NATURAL GAS PRICES ($/MBTU)
0
5
10
15
20
Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
Spot UK price (NBP)
Spot prices at Zeebrugge
Spot gas price at Bunde (NL)
Monthly Continental Europe Average
Monthly NBP UK spot price
Average CIS-NL-NW price
EU GAS DECOUPLINGLong term contracts (red, orange)
and spot prices in the UK, Belgium and the NL (blue and green) diverge
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ZEEBRUGGE LESS NBP DIFFERENTIAL ($/MBtu)
-1,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
Positive differential if gas flowsfrom the continent to the UK and
capacity (25 Bcm/y) is lacking
Negative differential if gas flowsfrom the UK to the continent and
capacity (20 Bcm/y) is lacking
0,15 $/Mbtu = IUK tariff
0,15 $/Mbtu = IUK tariff
ZEEBRUGGE-NBP DIFFERENTIALDriven by pipeline tariffs and bottlenecks
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IMPACT OF THE LOW US PRICES
• Natural gas is not impacted by the low oil price as their markets are specific with no competition
• UK NBP was down thanks to the economic crisis and the LNG abundance (no more cargoes to the US)
• Continental Europe spot prices followed the trend and Russian contracts were renegotiated
• But, in the post-Fukushima context, the LNG spot market and the LNG shipping market tighten
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NORTH AMERICA
A NEARLY AUTONOMOUS REGIONWITH PRODUCTION UP AND PRICES DOWN
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30 YEARS OF US GAS STORYHENRY HUB SPOT PRICE OF NATURAL GAS ($/MBTU)
0
5
10
15
j-80 j-82 j-84 j-86 j-88 j-90 j-92 j-94 j-96 j-98 j-00 j-02 j-04 j-06 j-08 j-10 j-12 j-14
Up to 1985,long-termcontracts
1986-96, "bubble":spot pricing,
partly against coal
1996-00, spotcompetitionagainst HFO
2000-08, prices are up because
of scarcity
2008-11 shale gasup & price
down
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US STORY OF FOSSIL FUELSGULF COAST INTER-FUEL COMPETITION ($/MBTU)
0
5
10
15
20
25
j-86 j-88 j-90 j-92 j-94 j-96 j-98 j-00 j-02 j-04 j-06 j-08 j-10 j-12 j-14
Natural gas at Henry hub
WTI/6, a proxy for heating oil
WTI/10, a proxy for heavy fuel oil
Coal (brought from Ohio to Texas)
1954 (Phillips)-1978 (NGPA): Price controls & shortages1978-1986 (oil counter shock): Contract prices falter1986-1992: Spot prices compete with coal in the South1992-2008: Spot prices between heating oil & HFO2009-2011: Shale gas "revolution" and price collapse
Natgasis now
cheaperthan coal
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US NATGAS MONTHLY BALANCEUS NATGAS SEASONAL CONSUMPTION
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
Bcf/d
Finaldemand
Marketedproduction
Netimports
Storagewithdrawals
Shale gas push production up and net imports down
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NORTH AMERICANSHALE PLAYS
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US Wellhead Shale Production (MMcf/d)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Barnett Woodford Fayetteville Haynesville Eagleford Marcellus
2008200920102011
US SHALE PRODUCTION GROWTH
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NET IMPORTS ARE DOWN…TOTAL US NET IMPORTS (BCF/D)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
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US NET LNG IMPORTS (BCF PER YEAR)
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Fareast (exports)
Mideast
Africa
Europe
Trinidad & Tobago
…AS US NET LNG IMPORTS (BCF/Y)
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…EXPORTS TO MEXICO (BCF/D) UPUS NET EXPORTS TO MEXICO (BCF/D)
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,6
Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
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GOM PRODUCTION (BCF/D)GULF OF MEXICO MARKETED PRODUCTION (BCF/D)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
Little gas as the Gulf is a «cold kitchen» mostly oil-prone
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US MARKETED PRODUCTIONUS NATURAL GAS MARKETED PRODUCTION (BCF/D)
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
J-80 J-82 J-84 J-86 J-88 J-90 J-92 J-94 J-96 J-98 J-00 J-02 J-04 J-06 J-08 J-10 J-12
Impressive
growth now
ending
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US NATURAL GAS RIGS AND PRICES
0
5
10
15
20
Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
Smoothed gas rig number /100
Weekly 12-month strip in $/MBtu
Monthly HH price in $/MBtu
The rig countclosely followsthe price trend
NATGAS RIGS & PRODUCTION
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STORAGE FULL = PRICES TO FALL
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PRICES AND DIFFERENTIALS
• With the growth of shale gas, prices have fallen, as low as 2 $/MBtu for spot Henry hub price
• Such a low price is not exceptional: Price will fall again below 2 $/MBtu because storage is full
• Winter NE price differentials may surge because the high demand creates pipeline bottlenecks
• In spite of the growth of Marcellus shale in the region, the pipelines’ “last km” bottlenecks remain
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GC-NE DIFFERENTIALSAVERAGE NORTHEAST* - HH DIFFERENTIAL ($/MBTU)
0
1
2
3
4
5
Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
* Average of Boston city gate, NY city-gate, and Transco Z6-NY
The average differential movesup and down with the fuel costsfor moving gas in the pipelinesfrom the Gulf coast to the NE
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DIFFERENTIAL LESS FUEL COSTNE-HH DIFFERENTIAL LESS TRANSPORT FUEL COSTS (~6%
of HH price)
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
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US DEMAND IS IMPROVING• The economic momentum and the low prices
are pushing R-C consumption• International industrial competitiveness has
been re-established by the low gas prices• Gas is competitive for power in all regions
and pushing coal demand and price down • The new LNG plants (Sabine Pass in 2015)
will be an outlet available by 2015-16
Exports will be an incentive for boosting supply
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OVERALL CONCLUSIONS
AIE Perspectives to 2035
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IEA: REGIONAL NATGAS DEMAND
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REGIONAL NATGAS PRODUCTIONRussia will be the main supplier
for additional gas to WE and China
IEA
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IEA: NATURAL GAS DEMAND GROWS IN ALL SECTORS BY 50+%