National Wildland Fire Weather

Needs Assessment

National Wildland Fire Weather

Needs Assessment

Mr. Mike BabcockSenior Staff Meteorologist, OFCMCCAMS Meeting, October 30,

2007

Mr. Mike BabcockSenior Staff Meteorologist, OFCMCCAMS Meeting, October 30,

2007

OverviewOverview

Fires: An Increasing Threat Western Governors’ Assoc. Request Joint Action Group Assessment Process Nine Functional Areas Fire Weather and Climate Summary and Next Steps

Fires: An Increasing Threat Western Governors’ Assoc. Request Joint Action Group Assessment Process Nine Functional Areas Fire Weather and Climate Summary and Next Steps

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Fires: An Increasing ThreatFires: An Increasing Threat 2005 and 2005 and

2006 were 2006 were record years record years for acres for acres burnedburned

Acres burned Acres burned have trended have trended upwards upwards more than more than 100% since 100% since mid-80smid-80s

Source: National Climatic Data Center Climate of 2006 Wildfire Season Summary 3

Fires: An Increasing ThreatFires: An Increasing Threat 20062006

– 9.9 million acres 9.9 million acres burnedburned

– Set new recordSet new record

20072007– 8.2 million acres 8.2 million acres

burned as of burned as of 10/12/0710/12/07

– 41% above 10-year 41% above 10-year averageaverage

– 22% above 5-year 22% above 5-year averageaverage

The U.S. spends approximately $2.7B annually in wildland fire suppression, preparedness, fuels management, and other activities.The U.S. spends approximately $2.7B annually in wildland fire suppression, preparedness, fuels management, and other activities.

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WGA RequestWGA Request June 2005 WGA ResolutionJune 2005 WGA Resolution

– ““The Western Governors urge NOAA to: The Western Governors urge NOAA to: Complete a National Needs Assessment Complete a National Needs Assessment Report, by NOAAReport, by NOAA’’s Office of the Federal s Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology, of federal, Coordinator for Meteorology, of federal, state and local fire managers state and local fire managers needsneeds for for weather information in their wildfire and weather information in their wildfire and prescribed fire decision making prescribed fire decision making processes and a processes and a frameworkframework to meet to meet those needs by the NWS and Predictive those needs by the NWS and Predictive Services.”Services.”

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– DHSDHS FEMAFEMA U.S. Fire AdministrationU.S. Fire Administration

– DOCDOC NOAANOAA NISTNIST

– DODDOD– DOEDOE– DOIDOI

U.S. Fish and Wildlife ServiceU.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Park ServiceNational Park Service Bureau of Land MgmtBureau of Land Mgmt U.S. Geological SurveyU.S. Geological Survey Bureau of Indian AffairsBureau of Indian Affairs

– DOTDOT FAAFAA FHWA FHWA

– EPAEPA– HHSHHS– NASANASA– USDAUSDA

U.S. Forest ServiceU.S. Forest Service– Subject Matter ExpertsSubject Matter Experts

State ForestersState Foresters UniversitiesUniversities

Cochairs: Dr. Allen Riebau, USDA/FS Mr. Eli Jacks, DOC/NOAA/NWSRepresentatives from:

Cochairs: Dr. Allen Riebau, USDA/FS Mr. Eli Jacks, DOC/NOAA/NWSRepresentatives from:

JAG/NWFWNAJAG/NWFWNA

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JAG/NWFWNAJAG/NWFWNA

Two primary goalsTwo primary goals– Conduct a comprehensive review and Conduct a comprehensive review and

assessment of weather and climate assessment of weather and climate needs of providers and users in their needs of providers and users in their wildland fire and fuels management wildland fire and fuels management activities.activities.

– Assess the capabilities of the provider Assess the capabilities of the provider and research agencies to ensure that and research agencies to ensure that needed weather and climate information needed weather and climate information is available to fire and air quality is available to fire and air quality managers and other users.managers and other users.

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Obtained info via workshops and questionnairesObtained info via workshops and questionnaires

– Reached out to 2,100+ community membersReached out to 2,100+ community members

– Received input from 745, including reps from:Received input from 745, including reps from: National Association of State ForestersNational Association of State Foresters

National Interagency Fire CenterNational Interagency Fire Center

National Interagency Coordination CenterNational Interagency Coordination Center

National Wildfire Coordinating GroupNational Wildfire Coordinating Group

International Association of Wildland FireInternational Association of Wildland Fire

Many others (federal agencies, states, tribes, local Many others (federal agencies, states, tribes, local emergency managers, academia, private emergency managers, academia, private companies/industry, etc.)companies/industry, etc.)

Results:Results:

– Identified 47 validated needs in 9 functional areasIdentified 47 validated needs in 9 functional areas

Assessment ProcessAssessment Process

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Assessment ProcessAssessment Process 9 Functional Areas9 Functional Areas

– Data collection and useData collection and use– Modeling, prediction, and data assimilationModeling, prediction, and data assimilation– Forecast products and servicesForecast products and services– Fire weather research and developmentFire weather research and development– Information dissemination and technologiesInformation dissemination and technologies– User response and decision supportUser response and decision support– Education, training, outreach, partnering, and Education, training, outreach, partnering, and

collaborationcollaboration– Socioeconomic factorsSocioeconomic factors– Funding and human resources (crosscutting)Funding and human resources (crosscutting)

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Fire Weather & ClimateFire Weather & Climate

Climate and climate variability cut across all aspects of the wildland fire weather problem

Needs identified:– More scientific understanding is a priority (R&D

functional area)– Need more information regarding long term forecasts

and climate outlooks (products and services functional area)

– Need more of the advances in modeling to be transferred into operational capability (modeling functional area)

– Need better modeling of fire potential, threat, and impacts associated with climate and climate change (modeling functional area)

Climate and climate variability cut across all aspects of the wildland fire weather problem

Needs identified:– More scientific understanding is a priority (R&D

functional area)– Need more information regarding long term forecasts

and climate outlooks (products and services functional area)

– Need more of the advances in modeling to be transferred into operational capability (modeling functional area)

– Need better modeling of fire potential, threat, and impacts associated with climate and climate change (modeling functional area)

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Fire Weather & ClimateFire Weather & Climate

More scientific understanding More scientific understanding

R&D Area % who rated as important

% who rated as sufficient quality

% who rated as sufficient quantity

Fire & Climate Change

83 29 29

Fire climatology

79 40 37

Drought modeling

76 53 44

Lightning climatology

72 53 4711

Fire Weather & ClimateFire Weather & Climate

Need more information regarding long-term forecasts and climate outlooks

Need more information regarding long-term forecasts and climate outlooks

P&S Area % who rated as important

% who rated as sufficient quality

% who rated as sufficient quantity

Seasonal Wx Outlooks

75 75 82

Drought forecasts

70 86 89

Monthly fire outlook

60 87 84

Hydromet Prods & Svc

18 88 8012

Fire Weather & ClimateFire Weather & Climate

Related needs– Users need model accuracy and confidence

info in understandable format– Need current training and reference materials– Need one-stop fire weather Internet presence– Need consistent dissemination of products and

services, available in multiple formats and bandwidth requirements

– Need better coordination among developer, delivery, and user communities for products and services

– Need real-time 4D characterization of the atmosphere and Earth surface

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Fire Weather & ClimateFire Weather & Climate

Feedbacks to climate community– Smoke and land surface changes as

climate drivers– Carbon sequestration effects– Mutual dependence on GOES Data

Communication System

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Summary and Next StepsSummary and Next Steps Summary: Summary:

– Assessment identified 47 validated needs within 9 functional Assessment identified 47 validated needs within 9 functional areasareas

– Climate, climate change, and climate services are important and Climate, climate change, and climate services are important and crosscutting concernscrosscutting concerns

Next Steps:Next Steps:

– Finalize detailed needs reportFinalize detailed needs report

– Form Working Group to move forwardForm Working Group to move forward

– Work with agencies and interagency groups on a gap Work with agencies and interagency groups on a gap assessment and a coordinated plan to close the gapsassessment and a coordinated plan to close the gaps

– Leverage existing and plannedLeverage existing and plannedcapabilities at all levels; buildcapabilities at all levels; buildvertical and horizontalvertical and horizontalpartnershipspartnerships

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Questions?Questions?

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BACKUP SLIDESBACKUP SLIDES

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ICMSSR Action Item, November 2005ICMSSR Action Item, November 2005– ““OFCM should move forward to form a Joint Action Group OFCM should move forward to form a Joint Action Group

(JAG) under the Committee for Environmental Services, (JAG) under the Committee for Environmental Services, Operations, and Research Needs (CESORN), to review Operations, and Research Needs (CESORN), to review the needs and requirements for wildland fire weather the needs and requirements for wildland fire weather information, to include identifying organizational information, to include identifying organizational responsibilities and addressing the following issues: responsibilities and addressing the following issues: data collection, fire weather research, weather forecast data collection, fire weather research, weather forecast services, data assimilation, air quality, information services, data assimilation, air quality, information dissemination, education and outreach, and user dissemination, education and outreach, and user response.”response.”

By Spring, 2006, OFCM formed the Joint By Spring, 2006, OFCM formed the Joint Action Group for the National Wildland Fire Action Group for the National Wildland Fire Weather Needs Assessment Weather Needs Assessment (JAG/NWFWNA)(JAG/NWFWNA)

OFCM ResponseOFCM Response

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CESORN ActionCESORN Action Recommend the CESORN establish a Working Recommend the CESORN establish a Working

Group for Wildland Fire. This WG should:Group for Wildland Fire. This WG should:– Monitor agency progress toward meeting the needs Monitor agency progress toward meeting the needs

identified by the JAG/NWFWNAidentified by the JAG/NWFWNA– Coordinate activities across agencies to ensure Coordinate activities across agencies to ensure

established needs are being efficiently addressedestablished needs are being efficiently addressed– Monitor the needs of the community to address Monitor the needs of the community to address

new and changing needs as they arise and developnew and changing needs as they arise and develop– Reach out to wildland fire and land management Reach out to wildland fire and land management

agencies at the state, tribal, and local level to: agencies at the state, tribal, and local level to: Ensure their needs are documented and addressedEnsure their needs are documented and addressed Help them meet their needs through Federal actionsHelp them meet their needs through Federal actions

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