national weather service protecting lives and property red river of the north 2009 record flood...
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Red River of the North2009 Record Flood Synopsis
Red River of the North2009 Record Flood Synopsis
Scott DummerNorth Central River Forecast Center
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2009 Flood Background Conditions:2009 Flood Background Conditions:
Colder than normal fall and winterWetter than normal late summer into fall
freeze upGreater than normal snow pack (but less
than 97)Quick initial melt: warm rain on snow
eventForecasted well by WFO for short term
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GoToMeeting Jan. 8, 2009 Addressed Significant Threat for Major FloodingGoToMeeting Jan. 8, 2009 Addressed Significant Threat for Major Flooding
CR, NOHRSC, NCRFC, WFO FGF, USACE, MN DNR, USGS, FEMA, NDSWC, Manitoba Water Resources, Wilkin County EM, Red Lake River Watershed District
Reviewed Red River Valley Current Conditions Discussed snow depths, frozen ground, soil
moisture Issued request for SWE Measurements As a result of Meeting, NCRFC issued early suite of
probabilistic forecasts for Red River Valley
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Fargo January 14 - April 30
Top 5 Climate Yrs19791969196519971975
Early Outlook prepared for GoTo Meeting presented Jan. 8, 2009; updated to AHPS web Jan. 9, 2009
1897 Record Flood 40.1 ft.
2009 Crest 40.8 ft
Large Shift – Key Indicator of Risk
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Modeling DifficultiesModeling Difficulties Lack of accurate and reliable gage data
Temperature Precipitation (radar and gage)SWE – Especially Manual SurveysAutomated river gages – Freeze-ups Ice affected stages – Ice Jams & induced Shifts
Temporary storage of runoff until conduits thaw (culverts, ditches, drainage tiles) - WaffleSnow mods used to retain volume artificially
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Modeling DifficultiesModeling Difficulties Inter-basin flows – “Break-outs”
Snow melt timing and rates
Frozen soil
Significant rating shifts and loops common
Hydraulic effects – “Valley” formed by GlacialLake Bed (slope six inches per mile)
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Unique ChallengesUnique ChallengesEarly spring rains
Ice affected stages during 1st crest
Complex Melt Scenario
Significant snow storm in middle of event
Overland flow became sheet ice
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Unique ChallengesUnique ChallengesSpecial issuance of probabilistic forecasts for
“Second Crest”
Unexpected quick warm up in far north basins (Pembina)
National Media Circus
“Uncharted territory” above top of rating
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Service SuccessesService Successes High participation rate on daily conf. calls
Data collecting coordination (SWE, etc) with states and local partners
Flow measurement Coordination (USGS, DNR)
Close USACE and USGS coordination through in-office liaisons
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Service SuccessesService SuccessesMedia brief workload distributed between
four offices – MPX SSH assisted SCH
“Katrina-like” planning done for service backup of WFO FGF at MPX
Early “heads-up” given to communities and local government officials in January
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Service SuccessesService SuccessesDaily coordination with NOHRSC allowed
quick data gaps closure via data acquisition and field reconnaissance.
Public-private partnership - Private sector coordination with those working for local communities in flood fight
Webinar briefings
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Service Short-fallsService Short-falls Partners received Forecast information at times
arrived before NWS EOC Staff
Mayor openly disagreeing w/ NWS crest forecasts hurt NWS credibility (psychology/local politics)
Continued dissatisfaction with and misuse of probabilistic outlooks.
Time Crunch - Difficulty producing timely information for the morning EOC briefings
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Unique & Innovative Techniques
Unique & Innovative Techniques
Aggressive outreach started early January (e.g. GoTo meetings, on-site meetings)
Predator B Live Video Feed - NOAA UAS Program
Hi-Res Satellite Imagery “Departure From Hydro-climatologic
Normal” outlooksNWSChat Interagency chat room
Major Flooding Departure From Hydro-Climatologic Normal
(CS – HS = “Departure”)
Major Flooding Departure From Hydro-Climatologic Normal
(CS – HS = “Departure”)
[13:30:45] <nws-andrea.holz…> Greg Kruse: what‘s your recent measurement at Alvarado?
[13:47:42] <nws-andrea.holz…> Also Roseau if you've got it[14:55:59] <nws-andrea.holz…> usgs-steve.m.robinson: crew visited the grafton
gage, dcp needs a -3.76 ft correction @ (04:17:52 PM) usgs-steve.m.robinson: the pressure sensor for the Grand Forks gage is drifting a bit due to the high flows. Apply a +.4 correction to the stage reading from the pressure transducer
[17:09:23] <usgs-james.d.fallon…> We have a technician shaking loose ice from frozen stilling well floats today at Hawley, Plummer, and Thief River Falls. Stage readings should be called in to NWS as each gage visited.
[17:11:17] <nws-andrea.holz…> Thank you James Fallon[17:36:16] <usgs-lorraine.d.leblanc…> 05101000 Tongue River At Akra,Today at
1025, Q=192, GH=10.41, Shift=+.56 ft, Clear[17:42:35] <nws-andrea.holz…> Thanks Lorraine
NWSChat Coordination Examplencrfcagencies chat room
NWSChat Coordination Examplencrfcagencies chat room
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Unique & Innovative Techniques
Unique & Innovative Techniques
Extended 6 day QPF for 1st crest forecasts worked well – Extended lead time to a week+
Extended temperatures 10 day forecast from Grand Forks WFO14 day NAEFS mean/median temperature
forecastRating extensions developed prior to
flooding
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SuccessesSuccessesUnprecedented interagency coordination
Federal, State, Municipal, Private ConsultantsExtended January probabilities through
April 30Advanced lead time > 30 days beyond normal
90 day outlookRecognized extreme & unique situation
where extended 6 Day QPF and Fcst Temps paid off Improved accuracyextended lead time to > week
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SuccessesSuccessesCoordination with NOHRSC pilots
Multiple gamma surveys conducted upon request
Daily coordination with Customs & Border Patrol Predator Live video feed extremely valuableExcellent visible imagery provided detailed
info at key points
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What did not work wellWhat did not work well Updated probabilities vs. updated deterministic –
2nd crest scenario identified immediate need for HEFS capability
User experience with major floods doesn’t match probability Recent major floods have crested near 10% exceedence User comments “we’re going to use 10% from now on”
for crest prediction Perceived lack of reliability in probabilistic outlooks
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What did not work wellWhat did not work well Rating extensions somewhat unreliable and
increased uncertainty Extensions established well in advance of flood did
not perform well
Lack of adequate preparation forinteragency liaisons Need to have logistics coordinated in advance
Lack of observed frost depth reports
SWE estimates
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What did not work wellWhat did not work wellRe-freezing of overland flow
Major factor in Fargo second crestCommon problem e.g. 1997 floodSac-HT shows possible improvement
DSS: “Scheduling of talking points”Coordination with CR EOC staff and HSD
restricted open interagency communication in morning operations
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Fargo April 1 ESP1997 39.5 ft 2009 40.8 ft
Fargo April 1 ESP1997 39.5 ft 2009 40.8 ftGreater than 60% chance of exceeding 40.8 ft. on second crest
Observed crest 34.0 ft April 16
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2009 Flood Ambient Conditions:Snow Depth Departure from Normal - March 12
2009 Flood Ambient Conditions:Snow Depth Departure from Normal - March 12
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