national security vs. energy independence in israel

21 May 2008 Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors

1

National Security vs. National Security vs. Energy Independence Energy Independence

in Israelin Israel

MK MG (Res.) Professor Isaac Ben-Israel

21 May 2008

Tel-Aviv University


2

Some Immediate ObservationsSome Immediate Observations

Israel has no oil.Israel’s energy supply is completely

dependent on import.Israel is surrounded by Arab countries with

only one open border: the Mediterranean Sea.

The Middle East is the main supplier of oil to the world.


3

Two Basic Strategic ProblemsTwo Basic Strategic Problems

Can Israel survive a war?– Can Israel be independent (energy-wise)?– Can Israel accumulate enough energy reserves

for emergency periods?

Can Israel stand against the “oil weapon” operated by the Arab oil producers?


4

Can Israel be energy independentCan Israel be energy independent??

Through renewable fuels: Not really, only relatively

Nuclear EnergyPossible Solution:

Short wars


5

Are renewable energy, bio-fuels etc. Are renewable energy, bio-fuels etc. not important for Israel Securitynot important for Israel Security??

It can decrease Israel dependence on import

It can reduce Arab global oil influence


6

“We have a unique military problem

– we are few while our enemies are

many... and the number -- you know,

is a major military factor, usually a

decisive factor. So what helped us to

survive till now and what will help us

in the future? Only our qualitative

advantage.”David Ben-Gurion, Uniqueness and Mission, 1948,

page 43.

David Ben-Gurion (1948)


7

Israel in the Middle East – Israel in the Middle East – Some RatiosSome Ratios

Israel vs. its direct neighbors: 1/15Israel vs. Arab world: 1/40Israel vs. Moslem World: 1/200


8

The True Aim of WarfareThe True Aim of Warfare

"War is thus an act of force to compel our enemy to do our will… Force is thus the means of war; to impose our will on the enemy is its object. To secure that object we must render the enemy powerless; and that, in theory, is the true aim of warfare“

(Clausewitz, On War, Book 1, Chap.1).


9

Three ObjectivesThree Objectives

"What is meant by disarming a country? We should at once distinguish between three things, three broad objectives, which between them cover everything: the armed forces, the country, and the enemy's will"

(Book 1, Chap 2).


10

A Rhetorical QuestionA Rhetorical Question

Can Israel have a victory over Egypt?Can it destroy its forces?Can it occupy its territory?Can it break the will of the Egyptian

people?


11

What is a "VictoryWhat is a "Victory?”?”

1967 – A clear and cut victory of Israel in the Six Days War.

1969 – Egypt launches the Attrition War.1973 – Egypt and Syria surprise Israel in Yom

Kippur War.


12

The Concept of “RoundsThe Concept of “Rounds”” Small countries cannot achieve final victory

over bigger ones. Hence, “victory” should be understood in a

context of military “rounds” (e.g. the Six Days War, Yom Kippur, Peace for Galilee)

In each “round” the enemy must be disarmed, i.e., put in such a condition that it can no longer carry on the fight.

The duration of a “round” < few weeks


13

Interim ConclusionsInterim Conclusions

Wars should be short (“rounds”)Each round must be won decisively


14

“We have a unique military problem

– we are few while our enemies are

many... and the number -- you know,

is a major military factor, usually a

decisive factor. So what helped us to

survive till now and what will help us

in the future? Only our qualitative

advantage.”David Ben-Gurion, Uniqueness and Mission, 1948,

page 43.

David Ben-Gurion (1948)

Decisive VictoryDecisive Victory


15

What is our “Qualitative EdgeWhat is our “Qualitative Edge?”?”

“Our human resources in general are no worse than any other country, with our moral and intellectual ability far exceeding our neighbors. This is our chief advantage. And for now it is virtually our only one. To exploit their role fully … they must be armed and equipped … with full exploitation of all innovative scientific and technological conquests for our defense.”David Ben-Gurion, Uniqueness and Mission, 1948, page 13.


16

The Right PrioritiesThe Right Priorities

“It does not even require mentioning that we must include scientific, technological and electronic development of innovative weapons at the top of our investment priorities.” Yigal Alon, Integrated Tools, page 103.


17

Israel’s inherent advantagesIsrael’s inherent advantages

EducationCombat experienceSmall is beautifulThe synergetic

combination of hi-tech and skilled people


18

Number of Engineers per 10000 capita

020406080

100120140160

The secret: The secret: Academic ReservesAcademic Reserves


19

The Basic ProblemThe Basic Problem

Industry

Inventors R&D Centers

Academy

?


20

Technology Transfer Challenges:Technology Transfer Challenges:Contrasting CulturesContrasting Cultures

UniversityIndustry/Corporate

Social responsibilitiesShareholders responsibilities

Basic researchApplied research

Create new knowledgeDevelop new products

Pure scientific driven researchSpecific objectives, product focused

Publications & collaborationsOwnership and secrecy

Sharing of materialControl of material


21

Private Investments vs. Government Private Investments vs. Government Investments (in US $K), 1991-2005Investments (in US $K), 1991-2005

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Government

Private


22

The Ultimate Key: ManpowerThe Ultimate Key: Manpower

For small countries the only way to compensate for numeric inferiority is by qualitative superiority

Quality = Skilled people Technology is a product of skilled people


23

A word of cautionA word of caution

Industry

Inventors R&D Centers

Academy

?


24

There are three possible roads to There are three possible roads to ruin - women, gambling and ruin - women, gambling and technology. The most pleasant is technology. The most pleasant is with women, the quickest is with with women, the quickest is with gambling, but the gambling, but the surest is with technology.surest is with technology.

Georges Pompidou Georges Pompidou

national security vs. energy independence in israel

Documents

victory of israel

israel security

israel dependence

syria surprise israel

days war

energy independent

attrition war

means of war