national fuel gas distribution corporation 53.64 (c) … · commercial 584,075 91,754 492,321 421...

53.64 (c) ('13)

NATIONAL FUEL GAS DISTRIBUTION CORPORATION

PGC Exhib it No. 15 of 31

Identification and support for any peak day methodology utilized to project future gas demands and any studies supporting the validity of such methodology.

National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation's ("Distribution") projected 2015

peak day gas demands under an extreme temperature scenario can be found

on page 4. The calculations and supporting documentation can be found on

pages 5 through 31.

An extreme peak day analysis is performed by Distribution for allocating costs

to customer classes as well as for capacity planning. Use of the term "extreme

peak day", by Distribution, refers to a calculated level of gas usage based on the

day in a winter season that has the highest number of degree days, i.e., the day

with the lowest average temperature for which Distribution plans gas supplies

and pipeline capacity. A peak day, in contrast, is an historical day of greatest

gas usage in a winter period, which may not have occurred on the coldest day

of the year. The peak may not occur on the coldest day of the year for several

reasons. For example, if the coldest day was not a business day and many

businesses were not operating, the peak day might not be the coldest day.

Data for extreme days of 74 degree days are provided because this level of

degree days was used for extreme peak day planning purposes as explained in

PGC Exhibit No. 24. Based on the experience of the most recent 30 years, the

Pennsylvania Division has experienced extreme degree days of 74. Therefore, it

is realistic to expect similar extreme days to occur in the future.

In addition to planning for a degree day level of 74 degree days, other factors

that affect capacity planning were considered such as the volatility of gas price.

In as much as there is a relationship between gas price .and usage, this gas price

volatility is a concern for capacity planning. Distribution needs to retain

capacity in order to serve additional requirements expected due to a decline in

current gas prices. In addition, an adjustment was made to account for the

standard error of the regression .

PGC Exhibit No. 15 of 31


Pages 5 through 15 are the workpapers to compute the extreme peak day

requirements. Page 5 shows the base case extreme peak day calculation. For

the heat sensitive classes (both retail sales and transportation service),

residential, commercial, public authority and Small Volume Industrial Service

Distribution utilizes a method of extracting a base load volume and I

computing a daily heating volume for the temperature used in the extreme

peak day analysis (74 degree days). The daily base load volume is added to

the daily heating volume to determine the base case peak day sales. Gas

usage of customers in the industrial classes; Intermediate Volume Industrial

Service, Large Volume Industrial Service, Large Industrial Service and Daily

Metered Large Manufacturing Transportation Service generally is not sensitive

to temperature, therefore, the extreme peak day sales are computed based on

an operating schedule. For the Intermediate Volume Industrial Service class,

Distribution utilizes an operating schedule of 21 working days in a month . For

the Large Volume Industrial Service, Large Industrial Service and Daily Metered

Large Manufacturing Transportation Service classes, Distribution utilizes the

actual operating schedule of each individual company, as shown on pages 8 and

9. The extreme peak day Company Use represents an average day.

Page 6 shows the monthly requirements used to develop the extreme peak

day. Page 7 shows the winter seasonal retail requirements for 2014-2015. The

methodology employed to project the level of requirements is similar to the

methodology used in Distribution's last base-rate proceeding docketed at R-

00061493.

Pages 8 and 9 show the peak day calculation forthe LVIS, LIS and DMLMTS

classes. Gas usage of customers in the LVIS, LIS and DMLMTS categories

generally is not sensitive to temperature, therefore, the peak day sales are

computed based on the customer's operating schedule. Pages 8 and 9

calculate peak day sales by customer using each individual operating schedule.

For example, customer 1 on PGC Exhibit No. 15, page 8 operates 3 shifts, 6 days

per week. Customer l 's peak day consumption of 912 Mcf is equal to 23,458

Mcf of monthly consumption divided by an operating schedule factor of 25.7

days ((6 days per week multiplied by 4.286 weeks (30 days divided by 7 days in

the week)). Customer 2 operates 3 shifts, 7 days a week. Customer 2's peak

day consumption of 497 Mcf is equal to 14,902 Mcf of monthly consumption



divided by an operating schedule factor of 30 days ((7 days per week multiplied by 4.286 weeks (30 days divided by 7 days in the week)).

Page 10 shows the calculation of the peak day capacity adjustment. The peak day

capacity adjustment includes an adjustment for price changes (through the price

elasticity) and model error. Pages 11-12 show the calculation of the price

elasticities for the residential and commercial classes. These adjustments reflect

the estimated increase in consumption if the projected gas price decreased 30%.

The current methodology uses the degree day coefficient from the econometric

model (Column B) multiplied by 74 degree days for a Heat per Account (Column D).

The price elasticity shown in Column E is multiplied by the 30% price decrease

(Column F) to compute the usage per account due to a 30% price decrease (Column

G). The price elasticity adjustment shown in Column I is the result of multiplying

Column G by the projected number of accounts in Column H. The need for the price elasticity effect is to recognize that actual prices may be different from those

forecasted in the Company's study. Actual prices may result in different

consumption behavior by customers than forecasted. Since the consequences of

having inadequate capacity are so severe, the Company believes it is reasonable to include a price elasticity adjustment in the peak day calculation.

The peak day estimate included in this proceeding is based on a statistical

econometric forecast model. The peak day estimate using such models is therefore, subject to statistical uncertainty. Pages 13 through 15 show the

calculation of the standard error of the regression models for the residential I

commercial and public authority classes, respectively. The Company believes that

it is important to recognize this statistical uncertainty in its peak day planning. The

standard error adjustment recognizes that there is a range around the peak day

projection. By using the standard error adjustment, the Company is 95% certain

that the actual peak day at 74 HOD will not exceed projected usage. The Company believes, for peak day planning, that the high end of the range be used since the

consequences of inadequate supplies on extremely cold days would be detrimental for customers and the Company.

Pages 16 through 20 show the residential variables, pages 21 through 25 show the commercial variables and pages 26 through 30 show the public authority variables used in the econometric models. Page 31 shows the extreme degree days for the most recent 30 years.

Natlonal Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation

Pennsylvania Division 2015 Peak Day for Capacity Allocation Volumes In Mcf

Retall Sales

Resldentlal

Commerclal Small Volume Industrial Service

Intermediate Volume lndustrlal Service

Public Authority

Company Use Total Retall Sales

Retall Shrinkage (0.15%)

Total Retall Sales Requirements

Transportation Service

Small Aggregation Transportation (SATC)

Resldentlal Commerclal

Small Volume Industrial Service Intermediate Volume Industrial Service

Public Authority Small Aggregation Transportation (SATC) Service

Small Aggregation Transportation (SATC) Shrinkage (0.15%)

Small Aggregation Transportation (SATC) Requirements

Monthly Metered Transportation (MMT)

Residential

Commerclal Small Volume Industrial Service Intermediate Volume Industrial Service

Large Volume Industrial Service

Large Industrial Service

Public Authority Monthly Metered Transportation (MMT) Service

Monthly Metered Transportation (MMT) Shrinkage (0.15%)

Monthly Metered Transportation (MMT) Requirements

Daily Metered Transportation (DMT)

Commerclal Intermediate Volume Industrial Service Large Volume Industrial Service

Large Industrial Service Dally Metered Large Manufacturing Transportation (DMLMT) Service Public Authority Daily Metered Transportation (DMT) Service Dally Metered Transportation (DMT) Shrinkage (0.15%) •

Dally Metered Transportation (DMTI Requirements

T9,tal Transportation Service

Total Transportation Service Shrinkage (0.15%) • Total Transportation Service Requirements

Total Throughput Total Throughput Shrinkage (0.15%) • Total Requirements

* DMLMT Shrinkage= 0.5%

2015

74

Degree Days

158,148 20,505

333

701

1,404 49

181,140

272 181,412

44,004

6,636

50

50 224

50,964

77 51,041

2,336

35,808 154

10,965

2,047

409 23,177 74,896

112

75,008

5,667 4,569

11,662

18,211 9,577 1,644

51,330 110

51,440

177,190

299

177,489

358,330

571 358,901



Natlonal Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation

Pennsylvania Division 2015 Peak Day for Capacity Allocation Volumes In Mcf

BASE CASE l (A) {B) (C) (D)=(C)/1,170 (E)=(D)•74 (F)=(B)/31 (G)={E)+(F) JANUARY NORMAL DEGREE DAYS= 1,170 201S

Dally Dally Dally Monthly Monthly Heat Load Heat load Base load 74

Retall Sales Jan-lS Base Load Heatload @Normal DD @74DD @ Normal DD DEG DAYS

Residential 2,469,099 257,194 2,211,90S 1,891 139,898 8,297 148,195 Commercial 334,S36 52,552 281,984 241 17,835 1,695 19,S30 Small Volume Industrial Servlce-SVIS 7,061 3,663 3,398 3 21S 118 333 Intermediate Volume Industrial Servlce-IVIS 14,713 701 Public Authority 22,176 2,471 19,705 17 1,246 80 1,326 Coml!an~Use 1,511 49 Total Retail Sales 2,849,096 170,134 Retall Sales Shrinkage j0.15%) 4,280 2S6 Total Retall Sales Requirements 2,853,376 170,390

Transeortatlon Service Small Aggregation Transportation (SATC}

Residential 686,812 71,S42 615, 270 526 38,915 2,308 41,222 Commercial 108,246 17,005 91,241 78 5,771 549 6,319 Small Volume Industrial Service-SVIS 1,058 S49 509 0 32 18 50 Intermediate Volume Industrial Servlce-IVIS 1,047 50 Public Authori~ 3,5Sl 396 3,lSS 3 200 13 212 SATC Transportation Service 800,714 47,853 SATC Transeortatlon Shrinkage j0.15%) 1,203 71 SATC Transportation Requirements 801,917 47,924

Monthly Metered Transportation {MMT)

Residential 36,466 3,799 32,667 28 2,066 123 2,189 Commercial 584,075 91,754 492,321 421 31,138 2,960 34,098 Small Volume Industrial Servlce-SVIS 3,271 1,697 1,S74 1 100 SS 154 Inte rmediate Volume Industrial Servlce·IVIS 230,273 10,96S large Volume Industrial Service 55,364 2,047 large Industrial Service 12,277 409 Public Author!~ 366,177 40,794 325,383 278 20,580 1,316 21,896 M MT Transportation Service 1,287,903 71,758 MMT Transl!ortatlon Shrinkage (0.15%) 1,934 107 MMT Transportation Requirements 1,289,837 71,86S

Dally Metered Transportation {DMT)

Commercial 92,913 15,485 77,428 66 4,897 500 5,397 Intermediate Volume Industrial Servlce-IVIS 95,956 4,569 large Volume Industrial Service 281,027 11,662 l arge Industrial Service 533,166 18,211 Dally Metered Larae M1nuf1eturlng Transportation Service 287,293 9,577 Public Authori~ 26,016 2,970 23,046 20 1,4 58 96 11553 DMT Transportation Service 1,316,371 50,969 DMT Tra nsportation Shrinkage (0.15%) 1,546 62 DMLMTS Transeortatlon Shrinkage j0.5%) 1,444 48 DMT Transportation Requirements 1,319,361 Sl,079

Total Transportation Service 3,404,988 170,580 Transeortatlon Service Shrinkage 6,127 288 Total Transportation Service Requirements 3,411,115 170,868

Total Throughput 6,254,084 340,714 Total Shrinkage 10,407 544 Total Require ments 6,264,491 341,258

Retail Sales: Residential

Commercial Industrial Public Authority Subtotal Retail Sales Company Use Total Retail Sales Subtotal Retail Sales Shrinkage (0.15%)

Company _Use Shrin~ge (0.15%) Total Retail Sales Requirements

Transportation Service: Residential SATC Transportation Commercial. SATC Transportation Industrial SATC Transportation Public Authority SATC Transportation

Total SATC Service SATC Service Shrinkage (0.15%)

Total SATC Service Requirements

Residential MMT Transportation Commercial MMT Transportation

Industrial MMT Transportation Public Authority MMT Transportation

Total MMT Service MMT Service Shrinkage (0.15%) Total MMT Service Requirements

Nov-14

1,352,525

184,878 16,427

12,991 1,566,821

503 1,567,324

2,355 1

1,569,680

376,223 59,820

1,588 2,081

439,712 660

440,372

19,975 322,782 246,808 214,517

804,082 1,208

805,290

Dec-14

2,090,758

284,054 19,360 19,323

2,413,495 1,074

2,414,569

3,626 2

2,418,197

581,572 91,911

1,872 3,094

678,449 1,020

679,469

30,878 495,936 270,344 319,062

1,116,220 1,676

1,117,896

National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation - Pennsylvania Division

Projected Gas Requirements - Calendar Month

Jan-15

2,469,099 334,536

21,774 22,176

2,847,585 1,511

2,849,096 4,278

2 2,853,376

686,812 108,246

2,105 3,551

800,714 1,203

801,917

36,466 584,075 301,185 366,177

1,287,903 1,934

1,289,837

Feb-15

2,220,880 300,974

18,199 19,673

2,559,726 1,414

2,561,140 3,845

2 2,564,987

617,767 97,386

1,759 3,151

720,063 1,082

721,145

32,800 525,476 246,862 324,843

1,129,981 1,697

1,131,678

Volumes in Mcf

Mar-15

1,936,183 257,439

15,594 17,017

2,226,233 1,028

2,227,261 3,345

2 2,230,608

538,575 83,300

1,508 2,725

626,108 940

627,048

28,594 449,467 234,755 280,990 993,806

1,493 995,299

Apr-15

1,135,073 149,972

13,078 10,111

1,308,234 533

1,308,767 1,965

1 1,310,733

315,735 48,526

1,264 1,619

367,144 551

367,695

16,763 261,840 182,635 166,960 628,198

943 629,141

May-15

613,632 88,058 11,776 5,438

718,904 271

719,175 1,080

0 720,255

170,690 28,493

1,138 870

201,191 302

201,493

9,062 153,743 168,874 89,786

421,465

634 422,099

Jun-15

285,265 57,017

11,382 3,015

356,679 125

356,804 537

0 357,341

79,350 18,449

1,100 483

99,382

150 99,532

4,213 99,548

187,956 49,784

341,501

513 342,014

Jul-15

257,194

52,552 11,294

2,471

323,511 57

323,568 486

0 324,054

71,542 17,005

1,092 396

90,035

136 90,171

3,799 91,754

235,662

40,794 372,009

559 372,568

Aug-15

257,194

52,552 11,294

2,471 323,511

44 323,555

486 0

324,041

71,542 17,005

1,092 396

90,035

136 90,171

3,799 91,754

257,903 40,794

394,250 592

394,842

Residential DMT Transportation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 O O O Commercial DMT Transportation 63,175 89,770 92,913 80,705 62,005 36,051 21,687 lS,695 14,662 16,308 Industrial DMTTransportation 1,058,470 1,038,790 1,197,442 1,122,671 1,089,269 1,028,227 915,821 834,037 712,607 862,606 Public Authority DMTTransportation 16,272 23,908 26,016 22,780 19,S53 11.403 6,115 3,519 2,887 _ 3,052

Total DMT Service 1,137,917 1,152,468 1,316,371 1,226,156 1,170,827 1,075,681 943,623 853,251 730,156 881,966 DMT Service Shrinkage_ (0.15%) • 2,834 2,654 2,990 2,914 2,867 2,808 2,457 2~9 1,951 2,410 Total DMT Service Requirements 1,140,751 1,155,122 1,319,361 1,229,070 1,173,694 1,078,489 946,080 855,510 732,107 884,376

Residential Transportation Service Commercial Transportation Service Industrial Transportation Service

Public Authority Transportation Service

Total Transportation Service

Total Transportation Shrinkage (0.1S%) • Total Transportation Requirements

Total Requirements

396,198 445,777

1,306,866

232,870

2,381,711

4,702 2,386,413

3,956,093

612,450 677,617

1,311,006

346,064

2,947,137 S,350

2,952,487

5,370,684

723,278 785,234

1,500,732

395,744

3,404,988 6,127

3,411,115

6,264,491

650,567 703,567

1,371,292

350,n4 3,076,200

5,693 3,081,893

5,646,880

567,169 594,772

1,325,532

303,268 2,790,741

5,300 2,796,041

5,026,649

332,498 346,417

1,212,126

179,982 2,071,023

4,302 2,075,325

3,386,058

179,752 203,923

1,085,833

96,n1

1,566,279 3,393

1,569,672

2,289,927

83,563 133,692

1,023,093

53,786

1,294,134 2,922

1,297,056

1,654,397

75,341 123,421 949,361

44,on 1,192,200

2,646 1,194,846

1,518,900

75,341 125,067

1,121,601

44,242 1,366,251

3,138 1,369,389

1,693,430

Sep-15

420,864

68,663

11,294 3,541

504,362

48 504,410

757

0 505,167

117,069 22, 217

1,092 567

140,945

212 141,157

6,217 119,881 261,393

58,474 44S,965

670 446,635

0 22,119

816,545 4,580

843,244 2,229

845,473

123,286 164,217

1,079,030

63,621 1,430,154

3,111 1,433,265

1,938,432

Oct-15 Total

800,665 13,839,332 114,133

12,448 1,944,828

173,920 6,884 125,111

934,130 16,083,191 213 6,_821

934,343 16,090,012 1,403 24,163

0 10 935,746 16,114,185

231,597 39,180

1,360 1,289

273,426

411 273,837

11,927 205,397 237,927 130,347

585,598

880 586,478

3,858,474 631,538

16,970 20,222

4,527,204

6,803 4,534,007

204,493 3,401,653 2,832,304 2,082,528 8,520,978

12,799 8,533,777

0 0 37,739 552,829

907,165 11,583,650 9,809 149,894

954,713 12,286,373 2,413 30,786

957,126 12,317,159

243,524 4,062,967 282,316 4,586,020

1,146,452 14,432,924

141,445 2,252,644

1,813,737 25,334,555 3,704 50,388

1,817,441 25,384,943

2,753,187 41,499,128

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National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation - Pennsylvania Division Projected Gas Requirements - ~alendar Month

Volumes in Mcf

I ---- --- - - -- ----

WINTER PERIOD - CALENDAR MONTH Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Total

Retail Sales

Residential 1,352,525 2,090,758 2,469,099 2,220,880 1,936,183 10,069,445

Commercial 184,878 284,054 334,536 300,974 257,439 1,361,881 Industrial 16,427 19,360 21,774 18,199 15,594 91,354 Public Authority 12,991 19,323 22,176 19,673 17,017 91,180 Subtotal Retail Sales 1,566,821 2,413,495 2,847,585 2,559,726 2,226,233 11,613,860 Company Use 503 1,074 1,511 1,414 1,028 5,530 Total Retail Sales 1,567,324 2,414,569 2,849,096 2,561,140 2,227,261 11,619,390 Subtotal Retail Sales Shrinkage (0.15%) 2,355 3,626 4,278 3,845 3,345 17,449

Company Use Shrinkage (0.15%) 1 2 2 2 2 9 Total Retail Sales Requirements 1,569,680 2,418,197 2,853,376 2,564,987 2,230,608 11,636,848

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Volumes in Mcf Consumption Month: January 2015

JANUARY 2015

LVIS Accounts No. of

SHIFT 1 SHIFT2 SHIFT3 SHIFTS MMT DMT

1 6.0 6.0 6.0 3 23,458

2 7.0 7.0 7.0 3 14,902

3 7.0 1:0 7.0 3 23,351

4 5.0 5.0 5.0 3 7,195

5 0.0 0.0 o.o 0 0

6 7.0 7.0 7.0 3 5,461

7 7.0 7.0 7.0 3 14,553

8 7.0 7.0 7.0 3 8,333

9 7.0 7.0 7.0 3 23,467

10 4.0 1.0 0.0 2 16,527

11 7.0 7.0 7.0 3 5,504

12 7.0 7.0 7.0 3 7,263

13 7.0 7.0 7.0 3 4,652

14 7.0 3.5 o.o 2 5,884

15 7.0 7.0 7.0 3 9,229

16 7.0 7.0 7.0 3 16,895

17 7.0 7.0 7.0 3 16,271

18 7.0 7.0 7.0 3 10,199

19 7.0 7.0 7.0 3 13,690

20 5.0 5.0 5.0 3 10,163

21 6.0 6.0 6.0 3 5,781

22 7.0 7.0 7.0 3 11,704

23 7 .0 7.0 7.0 3 10,058

24 7.0 7.0 7.0 3 8,292

25 5 .0 5.0 5.0 3 18,383

26 7 .0 7.0 7.0 3 10,117

27 5 .0 2.5 o.o 2 19,167

28 6 .0 6.0 6.0 3 19,989 59,459 281,029

PEAK DAY

TOTAL MMT DMT

23,458 912

14,902 497

23,351 778

7,195 336 0 0

5,461 182

14,553 485

8,333 278 23,467 782 16,527 1,543

5,504 183

7,263 242

4,652 155

5,884 262 9,229 308

16,895 563 16,271 542 10,199 340

13,690 456 10,163 474

5,781 225 11,704 390

10,058 335

8,292 276

18,383 858

10,117 337

19,167 1,193

19,989 777

340,488 2,047 11,662

• NOTE: Peak day forecast for Customer 8 is based on bypass agreement under which Customer 8 may nominate a maximum of 8,333 Mcf per month of service capacity.

TOTAL

912 497 778 336

0 182 485 278 782

1,543 183

242 155

262 308 563 542 340

456 474 225 390 335 276 858 337

1,193 777

13,709

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Volumes in Md Consumption Month: January 2015

LIS CUSTOMERS No. of

SHIFT 1 SHIFT2 SHIFT3 SHIFTS

1 7.0 7.0 7.0 3

2 7.0 7.0 7.0 3

3 7.0 7.0 0.0 2

4 6.0 6.0 3.0 3

5 7.0 7.0 7.0 3

6 7.0 7.0 7.0 3

7 7.0 7.0 7.0 3

8 7.0 7.0 7.0 3 9 6.0 6.0 6.0 3

10 7.0 7.0 7.0 3

11 7.0 7.0 7.0 3

12 7.0 7.0 7.0 3

DMLMTS CUSTOMERS No. of

SHIFT 1 SHIFT 2 SHIFT 3 SHIFTS

1 2

7.00

7.00 7.00

7.00 7.00

7.00 3 3

JANUARY 2015

MMT DMT TOTAL

12,277 12,277 22,866 22,866 22,516 22,516 20,860 20,860

139,684 139,684 42,852 42,852 25,830 25,830 30,458 30,458 29,070 29,070 41,584 41,584 75,868 75,868 81,578 81,578

12,277 533,166 545,443

JANUARY 2015

MMT DMT TOTAL

195,626 195,626 91,667 91,667

0 287,293 287,293

PEAK DAY

MMT DMT

409 762 751 973

4,656 1,428

861 1,015 1,131 1,386 2,529 2,719

409 18,211

PEAK DAY

MMT DMT

6,521 3,056

0 9,577

TOTAL

409 762 751 973

4,656 1,428

861 1,015 1,131 1,386 2,529 2,719

18,620

TOTAL

6,521 3,056 9,577

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National Fuel Gas Distributlon Corporation Pennsylvania Division Component Analysis

.. .., ......

Retail Sales

Residential Commercial Small Volume Industrial Service-5VIS Intermediate Volume Industrial Service-IVIS Public Authority Company Use

rotal Retail Sales Total Retail Sales w/Shrinkage (0.15%)

Transeortation Service Small Aggregation Transportation eustomer (SA TQ Residential Commercial Small Volume Industrial Service-SVIS Inte rmediate Volume Industrial Service-IVIS Public Authority

ISATC Service SATC Service w/ Shrinkage (0.15%)

Monthly Metered Transportation (MMT) Residential Commercial Small Volume Industrial Service-SVIS Inte rmediate Volume Industrial Service-IVIS Large Volume Industrial Service large Industrial Service Public Authority

IMMT Transportation Service MMT Transportation w/Shrinkage (0.15%)

Daily Metered Transportation (DMT) Commercial Intermediate Volume Industrial 5ervice·IVIS Large Volume Industrial Service Large Industrial Service Dally Metered Lars• Manufacturing Transportation Servi<•

Public Authority

IDMT Transportation Service DMT Transportation Service w/Shrinkage

/Total Transportation service Total Transportation Service w/ Shrinkage

,.Total Throughput Total Throughput w/ Shrinkage

... , Base case Peak Dav

148,195 19,530

333 701

1,326 49

170,134 170,390

41,222 6,319

50 50

212 47,853 47,925

2,189 34,098

154 10,965

2,047 409

21,896

71,758 71,866

5,397 4,569

11,662 18,211

9,577 1,553

50,969 51,079

170,580 170,870

340,714 341,260

. -. .-. ·-, .-. . -. .. . . Peak Day

Degree Day Heatlng Heat/Acct Price 30"A. Price Coefficient Degree Days @74DD Elasticitv Decrease

0.01200 74 0.888 -0.101 -0.30 0.02493 74 1.845 -0.084 -0.30

0.02410 74 1.783 o.ooo -0.30

0.01319 74 0.976 -0.101 -0.30 0.02684 74 1.986 -0.084 -0.30

0.02923 74 2.163 0.000 -0.30

0.12735 74 9.424 -0.101 -0.30 0.21992 74 16.274 -0.084 -0.30

0.60071 74 44.453 0.000 -0.30

6.01072 74 444.793 -0.084 -0.30

19.69786 74 1,457.642 0.000 -0.30

. .... -... .- -. - .. .-. Heat/Acct Projected 30% Price 30".<. Price January 2015 Decrease Peak Model Decrease No. of Accounts Dav Impact Error%

0.027 157,306 4,247 3.85% 0.046 9,598 442 2.73%

0 O.OO"A.

0 0.00% o.ooo 698 0 5.85%

0 4,689 4,696

0.030 39,824 1,195 3.85% 0.050 2,884 144 2.73%

0 0.00% 0 0.00%

0.000 92 0 5.85% 1,339 1,341

0.286 219 63 3.85% 0.410 1,899 779 2.73%

0 O.OO"A. 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 O.OO"A.

0.000 462 0 5.85% 842 843

11.209 11 123 2.73% 0 0 0 0

o.ooo 1 0 5.85%

123 123

2,304 2,307

6,993 7,003

. .. . -Total

Model capacity Error Adlustment

5,706 9,953 533 975

0 0 0 0

78 78 0 0

6,317 11,006 6,326 11,022

1,587 2,782 173 317

0 0 0 0

12 12 1,772 3,111 1,775 3,116

84 147 931 1,710

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1,281 1,281 2,296 3,138 2,299 3,142

147 270 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

91 91

238 361 238 361

4,306 6,610 4,312 6,619

10,623 17,616 10,638 17,641

-2015 Peak Dav

158,148 20,505

333 701

1,404 49

181,140 181,412

44,004 6,636

50 50

224 50,964 51,041

2,336 35,808

154 10,965

2,047 409

23,177 74,896 75,008

5,667 4,569

11,662 18,211

9,577 1,644

51,330 51,440

177,190 177,489

358,330 358,901

-0 -0 DJ G')

O'Q () ct> m I-' x 0 ;;;;

0 a: ~ -· ~

~z 0 I-' IJ1

National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation Pennsylvania Division

Residential Price Elasticity = Price Coefficient * Mean of Price

PGC Exhibit No. 15 of31

Mean of Mcf /Account

Residential Price Elasticity = -0.927502 * 11.17978 102.7614

Residential Price Elasticity = -0.101

Dependent Variable: PARESMCFPERACCT Method: Least Squares Date: 11105/13 Time: 07:35 Sample: 1998M01 2012M12 Included observations: 180 Convergence a.chieved after 7 iterations

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic

c 43.97223 2.337239 18.81375 PADEGDAYS 0.014176 0.000169 83.90979

PARESPRICE(-10) -0.927502 0.162924 -5.692848 PATREND -0.140375 0.010145 -13.83647

AR(1) 1.602212 0.057940 27.65308 AR(2) -0.644400 0.058154 -11.08097

R-squared 0.999271 Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared 0.999250 S.D. dependentvar S.E. of regression 0.280060 Akaike Info criterion Sum squared resid 13.64748 Schwarz criterion Log likelihood -23.26275 F-St!ltiStiC Durbin-Watson stat 1.793615 Prob(F-statistic)

Inverted AR Roots .80-.05i .80+.05i . .

,Date: 11/05/13 . Time: 07:46 Sample: 1998M01 2012M12

PARESPRICE(-10)

Mean 11.17978 Median 10.15755 Maximum 16.14490 Minimum 8.686400 Std. Dev. 2.161518 Skewness 0.704733 Kurtosis 2.243569

Jarque-Bera 19.19087 Probability 0.000068

Sum 2012.360 Sum Sq. Dev. 836.3167

Observations 180

Prob.

. 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

102.7614 10.22428 0.325142 0.431574 47679.16 0.000000


Commercial Price Elasticity = Price Coefficient * Mean of Price


Mean of Md/ Account

Commercial Price Elasticity = -3.673905 * 10.63323 465.0102

Commercial Price E!.asticity = -0.084

Dep.endent Variable: PACOMMCFPERACCT Method: Least Squares Date: 11/05/13 Time: 08:13 Sample: 1998M01 2012M12 Included observations: 180 Convergence achieved after 15 iterations

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Stalistic

c 225.8189 12.26612 18.40997 PADEGDAYS 0.051614 0.001467 35.17741

PACOMPRICE(-10) -3.673905 0.660368 -5.563420 PATREND -0.263074 0.039218 -6.708056

AR(1) 1.026685 0.075467 13.60442 AR(2) ·0.115756 0.074865 -1.546206

R-squared 0.992974 Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared 0.992772 S.D. dependentvar S.E. of regressi9n 2.394987 Akaike info criterion Sum squared resld 998.0574 Schwarz criterion Log likelihood -409.5658 F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat 2.015143 Prob(F-statistlc)

Inverted AR Roots .90 .13

Date: 11/05/13 Time: 08:15 Sample: 1998M012012M12

PACOMPRICE(-10)

Mean 10.63323 Median 9.950650 Maximum 15.88260 Minimum 8.063800 Std. Dev. 2.070699 Skewness 0.726561 Kurtosis 2.709252

Jarque-Bera 16.47073 Probability 0.000265

Sum 1913.981 Sum Sq. Dev. 767.5150

Observations 180

Prob.

0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.1239

465.0102 28.17018 4.617398 4.723830 4918.059 0.000000


Forecast Standard Error


Residential Forecast Standard Error= Residential Standard Error * 2 Standard Errors Residential Forecast

Residential Forecast Standard Error= 1.767194 * 2 Standard Errors 91.92100

Residential Forecast Standard Error= 3.85%

obs . PARESMCFSE PARESMCFPEF

2015M01 1.767194 91 .92100




Commercial Forecast Standard Error = Commercial Standard Error * 2 Standard Errors Commercial Forecast

Commercial Forecast Standard Error = 6.266715 * 2 Standard Errors 458.7130

Commercial Forecast Standard Error= 2.73%

obs PACOMMCFSE PACOMMCFPEF

2015M01 6.266715 458.7130



PGC Exhibit No. 15 of31

Public Auth Forecast Standard Error= Public Auth Standard Error * 2 Standard Errors Public Auth Forecast

Public Authority Forecast Standard Error = 55.98820 * 2 Standard Errors 1915.645

Public Authority Forecast Standard Error·= 5.85%

obs PAPUBNORSE PAPUBNORMF

2015M01 55.98820 1915.645

PGC Exhibit No . 15 of 31


Residential Model Variables January 1998 - December 2015

Actual Met/ Acct Degree Days Residential Price Trend Projection observation PARESMCFPERACCT PADEGDAYS PARESPRICE(-10) PATREND PARESMCFPEF

1998M01 125.467 6223 $8.8913 15 1998M02 121.660 6046 $9.1652 16 1998M03 120.138 6014 $9.2839 17 1998M04 116.702 5845 $9.3412 18 1998M05 112.617 5609 $9.3683 19 1998M06 110.814 5486 $9.3777 20 1998M07 110.755 5473 $9.3645 21 1998M08 110.630 5462 $9.3622 22 1998M09 110.213 5432 $9.3492 23 1998M10 109.529 5399 $9.3443 24 1998Mll 107.585 5299 $9.3575 25 1998M12 103.164 5028 $9.3743 26 1999M01 106.870 5280 $9.3348 27 1999M02 106.932 5266 $9.3254 28 1999M03 109.583 5408 $9.3302 29 1999M04 110.614 5488 $9.3163 30 1999M05 111.106 5549 $9.2870 31 1999M06 110.847 5551 $9.2661 32 1999M07 110.763 5561 $9.2555 33 1999M08 110.512 5560 $9.2502 34 1999M09 110.418 5571 $9.2879 35 1999M10 110.800 5633 $9.3996 36 1999Mll 109.856 5593 $9.3885 37 1999M12 110.621 5675 $9.4130 38 2000M01 108.202 5526 $9.3785 39 2000M02 112.075 5778 $9.3606 40 2000M03 107.975 5520 $9.3469 41 2000M04 107.656 5493 $9.3391 42 2000M05 108.442 5527 $9.3304 43 2000M06 108.996 5572 $9.3224 44 2000M07 108.992 5582 $9.3079 45 2000M08 109.274 5601 $9.2786 46 2000M09 109.488 5617 $9.2648 47 2000M10 109.577 5633 $9.2129 48 2000Mll 109.436 5639 $9.1538 49 2000M12 113.886 5953 $8.9735 50 2001M01 117.245 6209 $8.9306 51 2001M02 114.416 6064 $8.8564 52 2001M03 117.696 6322 $8.7915 53 2001M04 119.118 6439 $8.7463 54 2001M05 117.801 6355 $8.7123 55 2001M06 117.924 6369 $8.6873 56 2001M07 117.763 6359 $8.6864 57 2001M08 117.522 6343 $8.7248 58 2001M09 117.363 6346 $8.8151 59 2001M10 117.031 6332 $9.0316 60 2001Mll 116.594 6309 $9.3604 61 2001M12 109.540 5874 $9.9356 62 2002M01 104.775 5614 $10.5301 63



Resldentlal Model Variables January 1998 - December 2015

Actual Met/Acct Degree Days Resldentral Price Trend Projection observation PARESMCFPERACCT PADEGDAYS PARESPRICE(-10) PATREND PARESMCFPEF

2002M02 102.209 5465 $10.9803 64 2002M03 100.298 5340 $11.2550 65 2002M04 99.727 5291 $11.4133 66 2002M05 101.382 5417 $11.5012 67 2002M06 101.801 5449 $11.5568 68 2002M07 101.760 5444 $11.5664 69 2002M08 101.695 5445 $11.5861 70 2002M09 101.363 5408 $11.5697 71 2002M10 100.493 5346 $11.5916 72 2002M11 102.624 5510 $11.4712 73 2002M12 108.604 5900 $11.1010 74 2003M01 111.152 6037 $10.4635 75 2003M02 117.734 6477 $9.9481 76 2003M03 120.951 6738 $9.6736 77 2003M04 120.137 6740 $9.5009 78 2003M05 119.490 6723 $9.4062 79 2003M06 119.187 6724 $9.3502 80 2003M07 119.179 6723 $9.3366 81 2003M08 119.235 6722 $9.3144 82 2003M09 119.407 6735 $9.3000 83 2003M10 120.700 6826 $9.3245 84 2003M11 118.847 6698 $9.4302 85 2003M12 116.426 6530 $9.5619 86 2004M01 115.075 6471 $9.7718 87 2004M02 114.194 6444 $9.9487 88 2004M03 111.185 6241 $10.0437 89

. 2004M04 111.782 6258 $10.0886 90 2004M05 110.894 6169 $10.0997 91 2004M06 109.664 6063 $10.1127 92 2004M07 109.809 6087 $10.1314 93 2004M08 109.811 6101 $10.1837 94 2004M09 109.812 6112 $10.3182 95 2004M10 108.890 6059 $10.5588 96 2004M11 108.466 6060 $10.8647 97 2004M12 107.507 6061 $11.1667 98 2005M01 105.829 6026 $11.4094 99 200SM02 103.153 5905 $11.5312 100 2005M03 105.150 6094 $11.6048 101 2005M04 104.611 6112 $11.6411 102 2005M05 105.841 6268 $11.6428 103 200SM06 106.251 6339 $11.6397 104 2005M07 105.786 6309 $11.6350 105 2005M08 105.504 6292 $11.6525 106 2005M09 105.139 6264 $11~7143 107 2005M10 104.021 6187 $11.8967 108 2005Mll 103.522 6173 $1i.1577 109 2005M12 104.798 6318 $12.4076 110 2006M01 102.565 6204 $12.5131 111 2006M02 98.246 5938 $12.6224 112




Actual Mcf/ Acct Degree Days Residential Price Trend Projection observation PARESMCFPERACCT PADEGDAYS PARESPRICE(-10) PATREND PARESMCFPEF

2006M03 95.371 5784 $12.6701 113 2006M04 93.779 5717 $12.6798 114 2006M05 91.713 5604 $12.6808 115 2006M06 91.336 5588 $12.6824 116 2006M07 91.312 5597 $12.6945 117 2006M08 91.175 5598 $12.6088 118 ~006M09 91.310 5625 $12.6763 119 2006M10 92.371 5747 $13.1505 120 2006M11 93.504 5865 $13.8848 121 2006M12 89.992 5630 $14.6182 122 2007M01 87.776 5511 $15.3234 123 2007M02 92.450 5882 $15.7960 124 2007M03 94.084 5999 $16.0520 125 2007M04 95.394 6046 $16.1248 126 2007M05 96.698 6091 $16.1449 127 2007M06 96.573 6054 $16.1315 128 2007M07 96.636 6061 $16.0746 129 2007M08 96.745 6065 $16.1367 130 2007M09 96.702 6061 $16.0602 131 2007M10 95.269 5899 $15.7362 132 2007M11 93.807 5750 $15.1615 133 2007M12 96.090 5917 $14.4262 134 2008M01 98.322 6042 $13.8079 135 2008M02 95.881 5814 $13.3830 136 2008M03 96.235 5821 $13.1616 137 2008M04 96.051 5835 $13.0527 138 2008M05 94.973 5751 $12.9747 139 2008M06 95.839 5823 $12.9351 140 2008M07 95.720 5808 $12.9260 141 ~008M08 95.675 5805 $12.9454 142 2008M09 95.513 5791 $13.0151 143 2008M10 96.140 5860 $13.1042 144 2008M11 97.056 5933 $13.1788 145 2008M12 98.117 5988 $13.3520 146 2009M01 100.976 6192 $13.5017 147 2009M02 102.198 6316 $13.6053 148 2009M03 99.819 6167 $13.6781 149 2009M04 99.033 6134 $13.6826 150 2009M05 98.732 6143 $13.6748 151 2009M06 97.856 6103 $13.6950 152 2009M07 97.796 6118 $13.7406 153 2009M08 97.764 6122 $13.7933 154 2009M09 97.910 6144 $13.9054 155 2009M10 99.056 6262 $14.0555 156 2009M11 98.429 6258 $14.2164 157 2009M12 95.683 6120 $14.3132 158 2010M01 95.095 6148 $14.4150 159 2010M02 94.522 6154 $14.4679 160 2010M03 93.920 6166 $14.4356 161




Actual Mcf/ Acct Degree Days Residential Price Trend Projection_ observation PARESMCFPERACCT PADEGDAYS PARESPRICE(-10) PATREND PARESMCFPEF

2010M04 91.431 6013 $14.3988 162 2010M05 91.265 6022 $14.3753 163 2010M06 90.703 5953 $14.2797 164 2010M07 90.834 5949 $14.1087 165 2010M08 90.746 5944 $13.7973 166 2010M09 90.702 5942 $13.3549 167 2010M10 89.985 5892 $12.6823 168 2010M11 89.960 5889 $11.6334 169 2010M12 91.758 6002 $10.7337 170 2011M01 92.357 6020 $10.0845 171 2011M02 93.249 6064 $9.6455 172 2011M03 93.877 6088 $9.4081 173 2011M04 97.332 6313 $9.2969 174 2011M05 98.693 6373 $9.2190 175 2011M06 99.196 6394 $9.1938 176 2011M07 99.148 6385 $9.2187 177

· 2011M08 99.173 6384 $9.2745 178 2011M09 99.075 6375 $9.3216 179 2011M10 98.729 6318 $9.3046 180 2011M11 98.873 6298 $9.3256 181 2011M12 96.170 6084 $9.3551 182 2012M01 92.693 5829 $9.3858 183 2012M02 88.961 5538 $9.3345 184 2012M03 85.890 5255 $9.3261 185 2012M04 82.578 5013 $9.3211 186 2012M05 81.340 4965 $9.3116 187 2012M06 80.963 4952 $9.2910 188 2012M07 80.832 4949 $9.2643 189 2012M08 80.816 4950 $9.2406 190 2012M09 80.829 4953 $9.2252 191 2012M10 81.387 5020 $9.2833 192 2012M11 81.743 5067 $9.3739 193 2012M12 82.483 5124 $9.3875 194 2013M01 6147 $9.3295 195 96.877 2013M02 6147 $9.3095 196 96.666 2013M03 6147 $9.2598 197 96.442 2013M04 6147 $9.2187 198 96.190 2013M05 6147 $9.1826 199 95.927 2013M06 6147 $9.1440 200 95.668 2013M07 6147 $9.0907 201 95.431 2013M08 6147 $8.9965 202 95.243 2013M09 6147 $8.8818 203 95.088 2013M10 6147 $8.7913 204 94.923 2013M11 6147 $8.6881 205 94.783 2013M12 6147 $8.5764 206 94.664 2014M01 6147 $8.6239 207 94.408 2014M02 6147 $8.6577 208 94.176 2014M03 6147 $8.7107 209 93.935 2014M04 6147 $8.7244 210 93.739

PGC Exhibit No. 15 o f 31



Actual Md/Acct Degree Days Residential Price Trend Projection observation PARESMCFPERACCT PADEGDAYS PARESPRICE(-10) PATREND PARESMCFPEF

2014M05 6147 $8.7325 211 93.555 2014M06 6147 $8.7365 212 93.381 2014M07 6147 $8.7414 213 93 .211 2014M08 6147 $8.7787 214 93.016 2014M09 6147 $8.8447 215 92.798 2014M10 6147 $8.9038 216 92.589 2014M11 6147 $8.9719 217 92.374 2014M12 6147 $9.1137 218 92.094 2015M01 6147 $9.1406 219 91.921 2015M02 6147 $9.1546 220 91.762 2015M03 6147 $9.1543 221 91.617 2015M04 6147 $9.1471 222 91.480 2015M05 6147 $9.1372 223 91.346 2015M06 6147 $9.1272 224 91.212 2015M07 6147 $9.1183 225 91.078 2015M08 6147 $9.1098 226 90.944 2015M09 6147 $9.1069 227 90.806 2015M10 6147 $9.1135 228 90.658 2015M11 6147 $9.1273 229 90.504 2015M12 6147 $9.1400 230 90.352


Natlonal Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation Pennsylvania Division

Commerclal Model Variables January 1998 - December 2015

Actual Met/ Account Degree Days Commercial Price Trend Projection observation PACOMMCFPERACCT PADEGDAYS PACOMPRICE(-10} PATREND PACOMMCFPEF

1998M01 524.661 6223 $8.5833 3 1998M02 510.957 6046 $8.8390 4 1998M03 502.649 6014 $8.9655 5 1998M04 491.025 5845 $9.0202 6 1998M05 477.928 5609 $9.0582 7 1998M06 470.567 5486 $9.0751 8 1998M07 470.402 5473 $9.0735 9 1998M08 470.556 5462 $9.0777 10 1998M09 470.186 5432 $9.0700 11 1998M10 467.719 5399 $9.0701 12 1998M11 460.205 5299 $9.0859 13 1998M12 444.310 5028 $9.0887 14 1999M01 452.419 5280 $9.0499 15 1999M02 456.108 5266 $9.0310 16 1999M03 466.969 5408 $9.0228 17 l999M04 472.761 5488 $9.0094 18 1999MOS 474.949 5549 $8.9829 19 1999M06 475.571 5551 $8.9660 20 1999M07 475.503 5561 $8.9569 21 1999M08 474.470 5560 $8.9545 22 1999M09 474.021 5571 $8.9926 23 1999M10 474.955 5633 $9.0963 24 1999M11 473.995 5593 $9.1174 25 1999M12 473.199 5675 $9.1594 26 2000M01 467.784 5526 $9.1449 27 2000M02 480.166 5778 $9.1446 28 2000M03 469.848 5520 $9.1341 29 2000M04 464.752 5493 $9.1236 30 2000MOS 470.944 5527 $9.1134 31 2000M06 471.615 5572 $9.1038 32 2000M07 471.086 5582 $9.0913 33 2000M08 472.106 5601 $9.0654 34 2000M09 472.586 5617 $9.0453 35 2000M10 472.990 5633 $9.0141 36 2000M11 471.259 5639 $8.9682 37 2000M12 488.859 5953 $8.8097 38 2001M01 505.968 6209 $8.7642 39 2001M02 498.624 6064 $8.6991 40 2001M03 507.110 6322 $8.6268 41 2001M04 517.464 6439 $8.5942 42 2001MOS 510.235 6355 $8.5660 43 2001M06 510.572 6369 $8.5426 44 2001M07 510.369 6359 $8.5423 45 2001M08 509.466 6343 $8.s19s 46 2001M09 508.866 6346 $8.6700 47 2001M10 507.953 6332 $8.8921 48 2001M11 507.652 6309 $9.2207 49 2001M12 482.623 5874 $9.7793 so 2002M01 458.091 5614 $10.3786 51



Commercial Model Variables January 1998 - December 2015

Actual Met/Account Degree Days Commercial Price Trend Projection observation PACOMMCFPERACCT PADEGDAVS PACOMPRICE(-10) PATREND PACOMMCFPEF

2002M02 446.132 5465 $10.7986 52 2002M03 439.605 5340 $11.0727 53 2002M04 436.105 5291 $11.2022 54 2002M05 441.674 5417 $11.2778 55 2002M06 444.759 5449 $11.3360 56 2002M07 444.246 5444 $11.3464 57 2002M08 443.339 5445 $11.3630 58 2002M09 442.299 5408 $11.3521 59 2002M10 439.708 5346 $11.3750 60 2002M11 445.488 5510 $11.3450 61 2002M12 465.244 5900 $10.9791 62 2003M01 479.834 6037 $10.3156 63 2003M02 507.261 6477 $9.7800 64 2003M03 523.205 6738 $9.5077 65 2003M04 521.297 6740 $9.3454 66 2003M05 519.372 6723 $9.2531 67 2003M06 516.481 6724 $9.1908 68 2003M07 516.537 6723 $9.1748 69 2003M08 517.297 6722 $9.1501 70 2003M09 517.605 6735 $9.1334 71 2003M10 521.215 6826 $9.1675 72 2003M11 517.020 6698 $9.2648 73 2003M12 508.699 6530 $9.3934 74 2004M01 502.306 6471 $9.6248 75 2004M02 499.519 6444 . $9.7913 76 2004M03 488.766 6241 $9.8802 77 2004M04 489.362 6258 $9.9179 78 2004M05 486.943 6169 $9.9267 79 2004M06 483.712 6063 $9.9400 80 2004M07 484.037 6087 $9.9613 81 2004M08 484.156 6101 $10.0121 82 2004M09 484.463 6112 $10.1307 83 2004M10 481.961 6059 $10.3430 84 2004Mll 480.400 6060 $10.6421 85 2004M12 477.972 6061 $10.9390 86 2005M01 473.440 6026 $11.1446 87 2005M02 462.941 5905 $11.2582 88 2005M03 467.330 6094 $11.3147 89 2005M04 470.479 6112 $11.3371 90 2005M05 474.167 6268 $11.3336 91 2005M06 477.092 6339 $11.3297 92 2005M07 475.584 6309 $11.3101 93 2005M08 474.457 6292 $11.3188 94 2005M09 473.224 6264 $11.3628 95 2005M10 470.235 6187 $11.5236 96 2005M11 469.278 6173 $11.7684 97 2005M12 474.813 6318 $12.0259 98 2006M01 472.691 6204 $12.1522 99 2006M02 455.111 5938 $12.2533 100




Actual Met/ Account Degree Days Commercial Price Trend Projection observation PACOMMCFPERACCT PADEGDAYS PACOMPRICE(-10) PATREND PACOMMCFPEF

·2006M03 446.696 5784 $12.2774 101 2006M04 440.014 5717 $12.2748 102 2006M05 432.560 5604 $12.2663 103 2006M06 430.879 5588 $12.2622 104 2006M07 431.417 5597 $12.2808 105 2006M08 430.829 5598 $12.3079 106 '2006M09 431.157 5625 $12.4587 107 2006M10 434.573 5747 $13.0167 108 2006M11 439.176 5865 $13.7287 109 2006M12 428.496 5630 $14.4370 110 2007M01 415.109 5511 $15.1084 111 2007M02 429.980 5882 $15.5654 112 2007M03 442.378 5999 $15.8046 113 2007M04 446.614 6046 $15.8649 114 2007M05 454.540 6091 $15.8826 115 2007M06 453.834 6054 $15.8756 116 2007M07 453.495 6061 $15.8180 117 2007M08 454.190 6065 $15.7147 118 2007M09 454.337 6061 $15.4934 119 2007M10 450.380 5899 $14.9980 120 2007M11 443.659 5750 $14.3569 121 2007M12 453.058 5917 $13.5470 122 2008M01 463.328 6042 $12.8240 123

· 2008M02 459.879 5814 $12.3303 124 2008M03 456.666 5821 $12.0869 125 2008M04 457.042 5835 $11.9616 126 2008M05 450.183 5751 $11.8636 127 2008M06 452.862 5823 $11.8010 128 2008M07 452.666 5808 $11.7733 129 2008M08 452.350 5805 $11.7768 130 2008M09 451.932 5791 $11.8038 131 2008M10 453.489 5860 $11.8645 132 2008M11 458.109 5933 $11.9353 133 2008M12 462.231 5988 $12.0929 134 2009M01 473.558 6192 $12.2753 135 2009M02 482.493 6316 $12.3963 136 2009M03 474.725 6167 $12.4674 137 2009M04 469.348 6134 $12.4812 138 2009M05 469.881 6143 $12.4766 139 2009M06 466.993 6103 $12.5028 140 2009M07 467.524 6118 $12.5558 141 2009M08 467.977 6122 $12.6095 142 2009M09 468.605 6144 $12.7284 143 2009M10 471.522 6262 $12.8940 144 2009M11 470.490 6258 $13.0840 145 2009M12 457.705 6120 $13.2038 146

· 2010M01 456.092 6148 $13.3063 147 2010M02 451.665 6154 $13.3724 148 2010M03 449.752 6166 $13.3497 149




Actual Mcf/ Account Degree Days Commercial Price Trend Projection . !)bservation PACOMMCFPERACCT PADEGDAYS PACOMPRICE(-10) PATREND PACOMMCFPEF

2010M04 440.478 6013 $13.3063 150 2010M05 438.298 6022 $13.2807 151 2010M06 435.435 5953 $13.1806 152 ·2010M07 435.536 5949 $12.9908 153 2010M08 434.828 5944 $12.7096 154 2010M09 434.084 5942 $12.3007 155 2010M10 432.415 5892 $11.6622 156 2010M11 431.376 5889 $10.6058 157 2010M12 439.454 6002 $9.6444 158 2011M01 443.210 6020 $8.9558 159 2011M02 447.812 6064 $8.4984 160 2011M03 449.290 6088 $8.2668 161 2011M04 463.910 6313 $8.1747 162 2011M05 469.652 6373 $8.0918 163 2011M06 474.360 6394 $8.0638 164 2011M07 474.926 6385 $8.0883 165 2011M08 475.292 6384 $8.1342 166 2011M09 475.785 6375 $8.1737 167 2011M10 475.217 6318 $8.1680 168 2011M11 475.935 6298 $8.1931 169 ·2011M12 467.445 6084 $8.2328 170 ~012M01 451.083 5829 $8.2748 171 2012M02 434.708 5538 $8.2429 172 2012M03 423.267 5255 $8.2459 173 2012M04 405.492 5013 $8.2277 174 2012M05 401.753 4965 $8.2162 175 2012M06 398.979 4952 $8.1917 176 2012M07 398.516 4949 $8.1622 177 2012M08 398.390 4950 $8.1343 178 2012M09 398.165 4953 $8.1190 179 2012M10 399.562 5020 $8.1608 180 2012M11 400.894 5067 $8.2430 181 2012M12 405.911 5124 $8.2563 182 2013M01 6147 $8.1987 183 459.205 2013M02 6147 $8.1743 184 459.315 2013M03 6147 $8.1335 185 459.429 2013M04 6147 $8.1020 186 459.482 2013M05 6147 $8.0717 187 459.509 2013M06 6147 $8.0337 188 459.547 2013M07 6147 $7.9836 189 459.613 2013M08 6147 $7.9065 190 459.763 2013M09 6147 $7.8139 191 459.957 2013M10 6147 $7.7480 192 460.040 2013M11 6147 $7.6635 193 460.182 2013M12 6147 $7.5670 194 460.357 2014M01 6147 $7.5394 195 460.271 2014M02 6147 $7.4964 196 460.234 2014M03 6147 $7.4552 197 460.184 2014M04 6147 $7.3887 198 460.220




Actual Md/Account Degree Days Commercial Price Trend - Projection observation PACOMMCFPERACCT PADEGDAYS PACOMPRICE(-10) PATREND PACOMMCFPEF

2014M05 6147 $7.3276 199 460.230 2014M06 6147 $7.2643 200 460.244 2014M07 6147 $7.2015 201 460.251 2014M08 6147 $7.1625 202 460.167 2014M09 6147 $7.1418 203 460.012 2014M10 6147 $7.1328 204 459.811 2014M11 6147 $7.1397 205 459.548 2014M12 6147 $7.2044 206 459.070 201SM01 6147 $7.2357 207 458.713 2015M02 6147 $7.2514 208 458.411 2015M03 6147 $7.2523 209 458.161 201SM04 6147 $7.2477 210 457.930 2015M05 6147 $7.2415 211 457.703 201SM06 6147 $7.2349 212 457.476 2015M07 6147 $7.2290 213 457.246 2015M08 6147 $7.2230 214 457.015 2015M09 6147 $7.2225 215 456.762 2015M10 6147 $7.2313 216 456.475 2015M11 6147 $7.2489 217 456.154 2015M12 6147 $7.2670 218 455.831



Public Authority Model Variables January 1998 - December 2015

Normal Met/ Account Trend Projection observation PAPUBMCFPERACCT PATREND PAPUBMCFPEF

1998M01 2228.129 3 1998M02 2226.221 4 1998M03 2196.514 5 1998M04 2214.311 6 1998MOS 2188.569 7 1998M06 2193.594 8 1998M07 2179.143 9 1998M08 2178.349 10 1998M09 2178.766 11 1998M10 2170.324 12 1998M11 2163.617 13 1998M12 2165.226 14 1999M01 2151.680 15 1999M02 2158.002 16 1999M03 2179.334 17 1999M04 2146.062 18 1999M05 2158.929 19 1999M06 2141.566 20 1999M07 2135.774 21 1999M08 2133.132 22 1999M09 2137.215 23 1999M10 2147.345 24 1999M11 2149.761 25 1999M12 2140.112 26 2000M01 2154.070 27 2000M02 2128.563 28 2000M03 2140.183 29 2000M04 2148.280 30 2000MOS 2162.292 31 2000M06 2158.203 32 2000M07 2168.817 33 2000M08 2178.059 34 2000M09 2178.621 35 2000M10 2173.129 36 2000M11 2189.571 37 2000M12 2190.926 38 2001M01 2161.487 39 2001M02 2165.596 40 2001M03 2135.753 41 2001M04 2124.335 42 2001MOS 2110.943 43 2001M06 2116.631 44 2001M07 2117.250 45 2001M08 2116.022 46 2001M09 2143.226 47 2001M10 2144.453 48 2001M11 2143.910 49 2001M1Z 2148.389 so 2002M01 2143.147 51




Normal Md/ Account Trend Projection observation PAPUBMCFPERACCT PATREND PAPUBMCFPEF

2002M02 2169.443 52 2002M03 2183.975 53 2002M04 2208.036 54 2002M05 2218.710 55 2002M06 2228.675 56 2002M07 2220.200 57 2002M08 2211.339 58 2002M09 2172.299 59 2002M10 2162.955 60 2002M11 2131.491 61 2002M12 2101.169 62 2003M01 2094.308 63 2003M02 2045.825 64 2003M03 2002.128 65 2003M04 1977.862 66 2003M05 1957.933 67 2003M06 1940.696 68 2003M07 1951.405 69 2Q03M08 1955.620 70 2003M09 1961.167 71 2003M10 1967.370 72 2003M11 1977.197 73 2003M12 1994.883 74 2004M01 2018.015 75 2004M02 2020.919 76 2004M03 2048.219 77 2004M04 2055.062 78 2004M05 2071.734 79 2004M06 2079.787 80 2004M07 2071.047 81 2004M08 2069.421 82 2004M09 2066.556 83 2004M10 2063.249 84 2004M11 2055.491 85 2004M12 2035.770 86 2005M01 2005.539 87 2005M02 1992.123 88 2005M03 1973.035 89 2005M04 1957.373 90 2005M05 1944.616 91 2005M06 1942.621 92 2005M07 1938.784 93 2005M08 1936.639 94 2005M09 1934.816 95 2005M10 1935.855 96 2005M11 1933.233 97 2005M12 1945.947 98 2006M01 1953.480 99 2006M02 1984.692 100


National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation Pennsylvai:ila Division


Normal Met/ Account Trend Projection observation PAPUBMCFPERACCT PATREND PAPUBMCFPEF

2006M03 1989.353 101 2006M04 1995.370 102 2006M05 1984.868 103 2006M06 1984.046 104 2006M07 1987.951 105 2006M08 1986.849 106 2006M09 1985.059 107 2006M10 1980.329 108 2006M11 1980.464 109 2006M12 1960.007 110 2007M01 1950.374 111 2007M02 1930.891 112 2007M03 1938.791 113 2007M04 1939.016 114 2007M05 1956.887 115 2007M06 1954.450 116 2007M07 1953.920 117 2007M08 1956.583 118 2007M09 1961.385 119 2007M10 1964.839 120 2007M11 1974.192 121 2007M12 1986.980 122 2008M01 1994.954 123 2008M02 2012.779 124 2008M03 2022.514 125 2008M04 2021.194 126 2008M05 2026.001 127 2008M06 2036.793 128 2008M07 2036.728 129 2008M08 2036.920 130 2008M09 2041.583 131 2008M10 2052.817 132 2008M11 2051.338 133 2008M12 2060.631 134 2009M01 2067.493 135 2009M02 2052.284 136 2009M03 i048.343 137 2009M04 2054.108 138 2009M05 2047.324 139 2009M06 2033.886 140 2009M07 2036.380 141 2009M08 2035.941 142 2009M09 2029.551 143 2009M10 2014.813 144 2009M11 2011.536 145 2009M12 1987.405 146 2010M01 1972.978 147 2010M02 1970.536 148 2010M03 1949.050 149




Normal Md/ Account Trend Projection observation PAPUBMCFPERACCT PATREND PAPUBMCFPEF

2010M04 1922.593 150 2010M05 1912.396 151 2010M06 1922.476 152 2010M07 1923.699 153 2010M08 1919.629 154 2010M09 1916.132 155 2010M10 1915.057 156 2010Mll 1917.079 157 2010M12 1925.732 158 2011M01 1924.318 159 2011M02 1913.497 160 2011M03 1918.296 161 2011M04 1938.005 162 2011M05 1957.734 163 2011M06 1958.489 164 2011M07 1960.285 165 2011M08 1960.639 166 2011M09 1960.600 167 2011M10 1966.886 168 2011Mll 1960.527 169 2011M12 1964.570 170 2012M01 1963.799 171 2012M02 1980.937 172 2012M03 1986.373 173 2012M04 2004.208 174 2012M05 1980.796 175 2012M06 1982.005 176 2012M07 1980.263 177 2012M08 1979.315 178 2012M09 1978.543 179 2012M10 1973.427 180 2012Mll 1974.026 181 2012M12 1966.115 182 2013M01 183 1961.751 2013M02 184 1958.636 2013M03 185 1955.993 2013M04 186 1953.560 2013M05 187 1951.244 2013M06 188 1949.013 2013M07 189 1946.851 2013M08 190 1944.752 2013M09 191 1942.712 2013M10 192 1940.725 2013Mll 193 1938.790 2013M12 194 1936.903 2014M01 195 1935.061 2014M02 196 1933.262 2014M03 197 1931.502 2014M04 198 1929.780

observation

2014M05 2014M06 2014M07 2014M08 2014M09 2014M10 2014M11 2014M12 2015M01 2015M02 2015M03 2015M04 2015MOS 2015M06 2015M07 2015M08 2015M09 2015M10 2015M11 2015M12


Public Authority M.odel Variables January 1998 - December 2015

Normal Md/Account PAPUBMCFPERACCT

Trend Projection PATREND PAPUBMCFPEF

199 1928.093 200 1926.440 201 1924.818 202 1923.225 203 1921.660 204 1920.121 205 1918.606 206 1917.115 207 1915.645 208 1914.195 209 1912.765 210 1911.353 211 1909.957 212 1908.578 213 1907.214 214 1905.863 215 1904.527 216 1903.202 217 1901.889 218 1900.588


YEAR

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10 11

12 13 14 15 16 17

18 19 20 21 22 23 24 2S 26 27 28 29 30

National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation

Pennsylvania Division Extreme Degree Days

NOV-MAR EXTREME HEATING SEASON DEG DAYS

1983 - 1984 67 1984 - 1985 72 1985 - 1986 57 1986 - 1987 59 1987 - 1988 61 1988 - 1989 54

. 1989 - 1990 56 1990 - 1991 52 1991 - 1992 54 1992 - 1993 54 1993 - 1994 76 1994 - 1995 57 1995 - 1996 64 1996 - 1997 61 1997 - 1998 45 1998 - 1999 56 1999 - 2000 54 2000 - 2001 53 2001 - 2002 47 2002 - 2003 59 2003 - 2004 58 2004 - 2005 62 2005 - 2006 so 2006 - 2007 60 2007 - 2008 S6 2008 - 2009 64 2009 - 2010 SS 2010 - 2011 59 2011 - 2012 Sl 2012 - 2013 S4

PGC Exh ibit No. 15

Pag e 31 of 31

MEAN TEMPERATURE

-2 -7 8 6 4

11 9

13 11 11

-11 8 1 4

20 9

11 12 18

6 7 3

15 5 9 1

10 6

14 11

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