national conference - june 2018 · timberland investment management organization 3 • timos...
TRANSCRIPT
www.forestinvest.com
Forest Landowners Association National Conference - June 2018
Outline
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• TIMO - Timberland Investment Management Organizations• Why invest in timberland• What we thought we knew• Future considerations• Closing thoughts
What is a TIMO Timberland Investment Management Organization
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• TIMOs don’t own timberland
• TIMOs are investment management companies o Acquire, manage and sell timber and timberland on behalf
of institutional investors
• Top 30 firms manage portfolios comprising ~33 million acres
• By comparison, timber REITS (4) own ~ 18 million acres
• Founded in 1986, FIA employs a staff of 56. Known as a preferred employer and for strong culture. Employees own the company with 51 of the staff being shareholders.
• Operations span 18 U.S. states, Brazil and Chile, comprising 2.2 million acres of timberland valued at ~ $5 billion. Our client base is roughly 75% separately managed accounts and 25% commingled funds.
• FIA has acquired approximately 3.5 million acres and sold approximately 1.2 million acres
• Domestic footprint: South – 1.5 million acres; Pacific Northwest – 228,000 acres; North – 220,000 acres.
• In the past five years, we have acquired 246,000 acres in Brazil and Chile.
• Our sister company, AgVictus Capital Management, acquires and manages farmland and related assets, including row crops, citrus, alfalfa, blueberries and hazel nuts in the U.S. and abroad.
Forest Investment Associates (FIA)Registered Investment Advisor
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Forest Investment Associates’ Client Portfolio2,195,122 Acres Under Management
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The areas highlighted represent counties / countries in which FIA’s existing clients own timberland.As of March 31th, 2018
Location AcresAL 37,538 AR 240,796 FL 189,382 GA 189,479 LA 12,596 ME 66 MS 192,463 NH 707 NY 5,867 NC 109,749 OR 134,628 PA 128,385 SC 189,446 TX 235,375 VA 104,493 WA 93,400 WV 21,347 WI 63,347 Brazil 182,553 Chile 63,505Grand Total 2,195,122
Why TimberSummary of Benefits: Cash Yield, Inflation Protection, Low Correlation, Attractive Returns
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Benefits of Timberland in a Portfolio• Biological growth is the primary driver of returns
• Provides protection from inflation
• Exhibits low to zero correlation to other financial assets
• Attractive Risk-Weighted Returns
• Tangible real asset driven yield from harvesting operations
Biological Growth Provides Low Correlation Attractive Returns: Capital Markets Line 2003-2017
Return Drivers of a Timberland Investment 1992-2007
~ 57% Biological Growth~ 27% Timber Prices~ 17% Timberland Prices
S&P 500 Index
T-Bills (90 day)
US Timberland -Total
US Real Estate - NPI
NAREIT Equity REIT Index
BofA ML U.S. Corp. Bond Index
Barclays Capital Govt Bond
MSCI EAFE
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Com
poun
ded
Ret
urn
Standard Deviation
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$5
$10
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$25
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$35
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
NCREIF U.S. Timberland
S&P 500 Index
Barclays Capital Govt Bond
Real Estate
Consumer Price Index
Why TimberValue of One USD ($) – 32 years
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US Timberland
Sources: NCREIF, S&P 500 Composite, Barclays Capital Government Bond Index, CPI-All Urban Consumers, not seasonally adjusted
Timberland Markets & TransactionsWho is Buying Timberland?
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Note: Gray bar reflects impact of Caddo transaction and uncertainty surrounding classification of buyer(s)
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Tran
sact
ion
Valu
e (m
illio
ns)
Private
Institutional
Industrial
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Forest Investment Associates Transactions
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100,000
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700,00020
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2005
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2018
YTD
Acr
es
Annual Dispositions Annual Acquisitions
It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble; it’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.
~ Mark Twain
Three things we knew for sure that just weren’t so …
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The economy recovered painfully slow and housing is still well below expectations
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The economy and housing market will rebound quickly, similar to past recoveries ...
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2,000
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Cum
ulat
ive
Star
ts -
Thou
sand
s
2010 Forecast
Actual
Actuals are 69% of forecast, a cumulative gap of 4 million homes
Cumulative Housing Starts
Source: RISI, Forest Economic Advisors & U.S. Bureau of the Census
The historic tight correlation between timber and lumber prices has diverged
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When the economy recovers, pine sawtimber prices will track lumber prices, as they have done in the past …
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1Q1993 3Q1995 1Q1998 3Q2000 1Q2003 3Q2005 1Q2008 3Q2010 1Q2013 3Q2015 1Q2018
PST
Stum
page
Pri
ces
($/to
n)
Billi
on B
oard
Fee
t (BB
F)
U.S. South - Annualized Lumber Production
U.S. South - PST Stumpage
Source: Timber Mart-South & Forest Economic Advisors
Intensive silviculture has greatly improved forest productivity; coupled with deferred harvest volumes, and more efficient sawmill yields, growth now significantly exceeds harvest.
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Inventory accumulation from deferred sawtimber harvests in the South will be worked down quickly …
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Billi
on B
oard
Fee
t (BB
F) -
Tota
l Inv
ento
ry
Billi
on B
oard
Fee
t (BB
F) -
Gro
wth
& H
arve
st
Inventory
Growth
Harvest
Source: Forest Economic Advisors
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A combination of demand for export logs and domestic lumber has constrained Pacific Northwest forests
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Saw
timbe
r Inv
ento
ry -
Billi
on B
oard
Fee
t
Gro
wth
/ D
rain
-Bi
llion
Boa
rd F
eet
Growth
Drain
Sawtimber Inventory
Source: Forest Economic Advisors
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
NCREIF U.S. Timberland
S&P 500 Index
Barclays Capital Govt Bond
Real Estate
Consumer Price Index
Why TimberValue of One USD ($) – 15 years
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US Timberland
Sources: NCREIF, S&P 500 Composite, Barclays Capital Government Bond Index, CPI-All Urban Consumers, not seasonally adjusted
Recent timberland returns have “underwhelmed”NCREIF Timberland Property Index – As of 1Q 2018
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NCREIF – South: Annualized Performance
One Year 2.64%
Three Year 2.92%
Five Year 5.32%
Since Inception 8.87%
Source: Nationall Council of real Estate Investment Fiduciaries – Timberland Index
Note: U.S. South’s date of inception – 4Q 1986
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Saw
timbe
r ($/
ton,
stu
mpa
ge)
Lum
ber P
rodu
ctio
n (b
bf)
Lumber Production FEA Forecast Forisk Forecast Southern Stumpage
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Timber Market DemandU.S. South Softwood lumber production
Source: FEA, TimberMart South, Forisk Consulting
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Lumber production continues to pivot South
Source: Forisk Consulting
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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Cap
ital I
nves
tmen
t -Bi
llion
s
South North West
Capital Investments 2013-2018:
North $3.3 billionPacific Northwest $5.3 billionSouth $15.6 billion
Capital Investments in Wood-Using Assets
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Pine sawtimber prices are the lowest in 48 years in real terms
$-
$10
$20
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$70
1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022
Pine Sawtimber - Nominal
Pine Sawtimber (Real - $2016)
Stum
page
($/to
n)
Source: U.S. Forest Service, Timber Mart-South, FEA
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Past decisions foreshadow unique consequences
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0.5
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Mill
ion
Acr
es
US South Pine Tree Plantings
20.3 MM acres
8.4 MM acres 16.3 MM acres
U.S. South – Pine Tree Plantings
Source: U.S. Forest Service
Past decade of planting is ~50% of prior decade and ~40% of decade before then
Closing thoughts on markets
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• In the South, abundant timber supply has impacted returns • Supply will tighten in the future• Markets are local with unique supply/demand dynamics• The term “south-wide average price” has little relevance• The U.S. forest products industrial infrastructure is world class• The South will continue to gain market share • Timberland is a proven asset class with attractive investment
characteristics • Timberland will remain in demand by institutional investors
Thank you
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Contact Information
Marc WalleyForest Investment [email protected]
15 Piedmont Center, Suite 1250Atlanta, GA 30305www.forestinvest.com