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www.forestinvest.com Forest Landowners Association National Conference - June 2018

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Page 1: National Conference - June 2018 · Timberland Investment Management Organization 3 • TIMOs don’t own timberland • TIMOs are investment management companies oAcquire, manage

www.forestinvest.com

Forest Landowners Association National Conference - June 2018

Page 2: National Conference - June 2018 · Timberland Investment Management Organization 3 • TIMOs don’t own timberland • TIMOs are investment management companies oAcquire, manage

Outline

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• TIMO - Timberland Investment Management Organizations• Why invest in timberland• What we thought we knew• Future considerations• Closing thoughts

Page 3: National Conference - June 2018 · Timberland Investment Management Organization 3 • TIMOs don’t own timberland • TIMOs are investment management companies oAcquire, manage

What is a TIMO Timberland Investment Management Organization

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• TIMOs don’t own timberland

• TIMOs are investment management companies o Acquire, manage and sell timber and timberland on behalf

of institutional investors

• Top 30 firms manage portfolios comprising ~33 million acres

• By comparison, timber REITS (4) own ~ 18 million acres

Page 4: National Conference - June 2018 · Timberland Investment Management Organization 3 • TIMOs don’t own timberland • TIMOs are investment management companies oAcquire, manage

• Founded in 1986, FIA employs a staff of 56. Known as a preferred employer and for strong culture. Employees own the company with 51 of the staff being shareholders.

• Operations span 18 U.S. states, Brazil and Chile, comprising 2.2 million acres of timberland valued at ~ $5 billion. Our client base is roughly 75% separately managed accounts and 25% commingled funds.

• FIA has acquired approximately 3.5 million acres and sold approximately 1.2 million acres

• Domestic footprint: South – 1.5 million acres; Pacific Northwest – 228,000 acres; North – 220,000 acres.

• In the past five years, we have acquired 246,000 acres in Brazil and Chile.

• Our sister company, AgVictus Capital Management, acquires and manages farmland and related assets, including row crops, citrus, alfalfa, blueberries and hazel nuts in the U.S. and abroad.

Forest Investment Associates (FIA)Registered Investment Advisor

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Page 5: National Conference - June 2018 · Timberland Investment Management Organization 3 • TIMOs don’t own timberland • TIMOs are investment management companies oAcquire, manage

Forest Investment Associates’ Client Portfolio2,195,122 Acres Under Management

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The areas highlighted represent counties / countries in which FIA’s existing clients own timberland.As of March 31th, 2018

Location AcresAL 37,538 AR 240,796 FL 189,382 GA 189,479 LA 12,596 ME 66 MS 192,463 NH 707 NY 5,867 NC 109,749 OR 134,628 PA 128,385 SC 189,446 TX 235,375 VA 104,493 WA 93,400 WV 21,347 WI 63,347 Brazil 182,553 Chile 63,505Grand Total 2,195,122

Page 6: National Conference - June 2018 · Timberland Investment Management Organization 3 • TIMOs don’t own timberland • TIMOs are investment management companies oAcquire, manage

Why TimberSummary of Benefits: Cash Yield, Inflation Protection, Low Correlation, Attractive Returns

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Benefits of Timberland in a Portfolio• Biological growth is the primary driver of returns

• Provides protection from inflation

• Exhibits low to zero correlation to other financial assets

• Attractive Risk-Weighted Returns

• Tangible real asset driven yield from harvesting operations

Biological Growth Provides Low Correlation Attractive Returns: Capital Markets Line 2003-2017

Return Drivers of a Timberland Investment 1992-2007

~ 57% Biological Growth~ 27% Timber Prices~ 17% Timberland Prices

S&P 500 Index

T-Bills (90 day)

US Timberland -Total

US Real Estate - NPI

NAREIT Equity REIT Index

BofA ML U.S. Corp. Bond Index

Barclays Capital Govt Bond

MSCI EAFE

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Com

poun

ded

Ret

urn

Standard Deviation

Page 7: National Conference - June 2018 · Timberland Investment Management Organization 3 • TIMOs don’t own timberland • TIMOs are investment management companies oAcquire, manage

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

NCREIF U.S. Timberland

S&P 500 Index

Barclays Capital Govt Bond

Real Estate

Consumer Price Index

Why TimberValue of One USD ($) – 32 years

7

US Timberland

Sources: NCREIF, S&P 500 Composite, Barclays Capital Government Bond Index, CPI-All Urban Consumers, not seasonally adjusted

Page 8: National Conference - June 2018 · Timberland Investment Management Organization 3 • TIMOs don’t own timberland • TIMOs are investment management companies oAcquire, manage

Timberland Markets & TransactionsWho is Buying Timberland?

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Note: Gray bar reflects impact of Caddo transaction and uncertainty surrounding classification of buyer(s)

$-

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$9,000

$10,000

Tran

sact

ion

Valu

e (m

illio

ns)

Private

Institutional

Industrial

Page 9: National Conference - June 2018 · Timberland Investment Management Organization 3 • TIMOs don’t own timberland • TIMOs are investment management companies oAcquire, manage

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Forest Investment Associates Transactions

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,00020

04

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

YTD

Acr

es

Annual Dispositions Annual Acquisitions

Page 10: National Conference - June 2018 · Timberland Investment Management Organization 3 • TIMOs don’t own timberland • TIMOs are investment management companies oAcquire, manage

It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble; it’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.

~ Mark Twain

Three things we knew for sure that just weren’t so …

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Page 11: National Conference - June 2018 · Timberland Investment Management Organization 3 • TIMOs don’t own timberland • TIMOs are investment management companies oAcquire, manage

The economy recovered painfully slow and housing is still well below expectations

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The economy and housing market will rebound quickly, similar to past recoveries ...

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Cum

ulat

ive

Star

ts -

Thou

sand

s

2010 Forecast

Actual

Actuals are 69% of forecast, a cumulative gap of 4 million homes

Cumulative Housing Starts

Source: RISI, Forest Economic Advisors & U.S. Bureau of the Census

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Comment about how far we missed the mark on housing; the cumulative impact to lumber consumption, current constraints on housing, etc.
Page 12: National Conference - June 2018 · Timberland Investment Management Organization 3 • TIMOs don’t own timberland • TIMOs are investment management companies oAcquire, manage

The historic tight correlation between timber and lumber prices has diverged

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When the economy recovers, pine sawtimber prices will track lumber prices, as they have done in the past …

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

10

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1Q1993 3Q1995 1Q1998 3Q2000 1Q2003 3Q2005 1Q2008 3Q2010 1Q2013 3Q2015 1Q2018

PST

Stum

page

Pri

ces

($/to

n)

Billi

on B

oard

Fee

t (BB

F)

U.S. South - Annualized Lumber Production

U.S. South - PST Stumpage

Source: Timber Mart-South & Forest Economic Advisors

Page 13: National Conference - June 2018 · Timberland Investment Management Organization 3 • TIMOs don’t own timberland • TIMOs are investment management companies oAcquire, manage

Intensive silviculture has greatly improved forest productivity; coupled with deferred harvest volumes, and more efficient sawmill yields, growth now significantly exceeds harvest.

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Inventory accumulation from deferred sawtimber harvests in the South will be worked down quickly …

100

150

200

250

300

350

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Billi

on B

oard

Fee

t (BB

F) -

Tota

l Inv

ento

ry

Billi

on B

oard

Fee

t (BB

F) -

Gro

wth

& H

arve

st

Inventory

Growth

Harvest

Source: Forest Economic Advisors

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Comment on specifics of improved forest productivity: [x%] better over past [y] years, etc. Mention compounding effect of growth on deferred harvests; greater log yields in the sawmill; better kiln technology; yield gains in the future will not be as great (c/o Brooks comment to me)
Page 14: National Conference - June 2018 · Timberland Investment Management Organization 3 • TIMOs don’t own timberland • TIMOs are investment management companies oAcquire, manage

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A combination of demand for export logs and domestic lumber has constrained Pacific Northwest forests

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95

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105

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115

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140

0

1

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10

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Saw

timbe

r Inv

ento

ry -

Billi

on B

oard

Fee

t

Gro

wth

/ D

rain

-Bi

llion

Boa

rd F

eet

Growth

Drain

Sawtimber Inventory

Source: Forest Economic Advisors

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Comment on recent report from Mark Wilde at BMO in Weyerhaeuser coverage about “tapped out” PNW; mention relatively small geography in PNW; tension b/t export markets to China, Japan, Pacific Rim coupled with surging domestic demand; might need to be prepared to address questions about trade tensions with China and whether that would have impact on U.S. log exports and lumber markets.
Page 15: National Conference - June 2018 · Timberland Investment Management Organization 3 • TIMOs don’t own timberland • TIMOs are investment management companies oAcquire, manage

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

NCREIF U.S. Timberland

S&P 500 Index

Barclays Capital Govt Bond

Real Estate

Consumer Price Index

Why TimberValue of One USD ($) – 15 years

15

US Timberland

Sources: NCREIF, S&P 500 Composite, Barclays Capital Government Bond Index, CPI-All Urban Consumers, not seasonally adjusted

Page 16: National Conference - June 2018 · Timberland Investment Management Organization 3 • TIMOs don’t own timberland • TIMOs are investment management companies oAcquire, manage

Recent timberland returns have “underwhelmed”NCREIF Timberland Property Index – As of 1Q 2018

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NCREIF – South: Annualized Performance

One Year 2.64%

Three Year 2.92%

Five Year 5.32%

Since Inception 8.87%

Source: Nationall Council of real Estate Investment Fiduciaries – Timberland Index

Note: U.S. South’s date of inception – 4Q 1986

Page 17: National Conference - June 2018 · Timberland Investment Management Organization 3 • TIMOs don’t own timberland • TIMOs are investment management companies oAcquire, manage

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

10

12

14

16

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20

22

24

26

Saw

timbe

r ($/

ton,

stu

mpa

ge)

Lum

ber P

rodu

ctio

n (b

bf)

Lumber Production FEA Forecast Forisk Forecast Southern Stumpage

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Timber Market DemandU.S. South Softwood lumber production

Source: FEA, TimberMart South, Forisk Consulting

Page 18: National Conference - June 2018 · Timberland Investment Management Organization 3 • TIMOs don’t own timberland • TIMOs are investment management companies oAcquire, manage

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Lumber production continues to pivot South

Source: Forisk Consulting

$0

$1

$2

$3

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$6

$7

$8

$9

$10

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Cap

ital I

nves

tmen

t -Bi

llion

s

South North West

Capital Investments 2013-2018:

North $3.3 billionPacific Northwest $5.3 billionSouth $15.6 billion

Capital Investments in Wood-Using Assets

Page 19: National Conference - June 2018 · Timberland Investment Management Organization 3 • TIMOs don’t own timberland • TIMOs are investment management companies oAcquire, manage

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Pine sawtimber prices are the lowest in 48 years in real terms

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022

Pine Sawtimber - Nominal

Pine Sawtimber (Real - $2016)

Stum

page

($/to

n)

Source: U.S. Forest Service, Timber Mart-South, FEA

Page 20: National Conference - June 2018 · Timberland Investment Management Organization 3 • TIMOs don’t own timberland • TIMOs are investment management companies oAcquire, manage

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Past decisions foreshadow unique consequences

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Mill

ion

Acr

es

US South Pine Tree Plantings

20.3 MM acres

8.4 MM acres 16.3 MM acres

U.S. South – Pine Tree Plantings

Source: U.S. Forest Service

Past decade of planting is ~50% of prior decade and ~40% of decade before then

Page 21: National Conference - June 2018 · Timberland Investment Management Organization 3 • TIMOs don’t own timberland • TIMOs are investment management companies oAcquire, manage

Closing thoughts on markets

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• In the South, abundant timber supply has impacted returns • Supply will tighten in the future• Markets are local with unique supply/demand dynamics• The term “south-wide average price” has little relevance• The U.S. forest products industrial infrastructure is world class• The South will continue to gain market share • Timberland is a proven asset class with attractive investment

characteristics • Timberland will remain in demand by institutional investors

Page 22: National Conference - June 2018 · Timberland Investment Management Organization 3 • TIMOs don’t own timberland • TIMOs are investment management companies oAcquire, manage

Thank you

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Contact Information

Marc WalleyForest Investment [email protected]

15 Piedmont Center, Suite 1250Atlanta, GA 30305www.forestinvest.com