National Board of Trade

Lena JohanssonDirector General

• Agency for foreign trade and trade policy

• Promote free trade and transparent rules

• Our main task is to improve opportunities for international trade

National Board of Trade

Objectives

• An effective Internal Market

• An open trade policy in the EU

• A strong multilateral international trading system

Ljuset är proportionell mot den ekonomiska aktiviteten

Ljuset (ekonomiska aktiviteten) är mest intensiv vid kusten och navigerbara floder

Var ”ljusnar” det och varför?- Framförallt i länder som integrerar

sig i världsekonomin, t.ex. BRICs

The Swedish Government:

….. create growth and employment in Sweden

by promoting free trade and dismantling of trade barriers

Developing countries

• Analyses of developing countries perspective

• Competence and capacity building programmes in developing countries

• Open Trade Gate Sweden

International trade and development

•Why do people trade?

•Situation and developments in world trade

•Trade and Climate Change

•Development perspective

•Swedish trade patterns and developments

•Trade policies

Free trade

• Trade creates welfare

• Sweden is very dependant on international trade

Swedish trade dependance

Exports/GDP > 50 %

Imports/GDP = almost 50 %

Källa: WTO

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

Sve

nsk

exp

ort

: M

ilja

rder

US

D

Vär

ldse

xpo

rt:

Mil

jard

er U

SD

Världsexport och Sveriges export av varor och tjänster

Världen Sverige

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

And

el (%

)

Export av varor och tjänster, procent av BNP (1960–2007)

Världen Sverige

Exports of goods and services,percent of GDP (1960-2007)

1960 1996 2006

Global 10 % 20 % 30 %

Sweden 14 % 35 % > 50 %

Exports/GDP

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Inde

x 19

80 =

100

FDI och export (1980 - 2007)

FDI Export Källa: UNCTAD

1995 2005

Global 10 % 24 %

Sweden 30 % > 50 %

Foreign investments/GDP

Imports of goods and services increase faster then GDP in almost every country

FDI´s grow even faster

• Total trade between North America, Asia and Europé =23 % of world trade

• Trade within the three regions= 53 % of world trade

- Europe 31 % (single market 25 %)- Asia 14 %- North America 8 %

International trade is still regional

951 mdr $(7 %)

122 mdr $(1 %)

40,5 mdr $(0,3 %)

4243mdr $(31%)

103 mdr $(1 %)

1889mdr $(14%)

282 mdr $(2%)

787mdr $(6 %)

315 mdr $(2 %)

1148 mdr $(8%)

93,4 mdr $(1%)

1108 mdr $(8%)

Intra regional handel

Inter-regional handel

477mdr $(4 %)

Källa: WTO International Trade Statistics 2008

Källa: UN comtrade database (Wits)

EU-27:s intra- och extra regional varuhandel som andel av total handel 1962-2008

Sveriges intra- och extra-handel med varor som procentandel av total handel 1962-2008

Källa: UN comtrade database (WITS)

Källa: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland, U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis, Tulli, Finland, Eurostat och SCB 23

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Förä

ndri

ng ö

ver m

otsv

aran

de

kvar

tal f

öreg

åend

e år

(%)

Exportutvecklingen i internationell jämförelse(2008 - 2010)

EU (extern) Finland Tyskland USA Sverige

The public opinion

Support for international trade is strong, but the trend is negative?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

% s

om

sö

de

r h

an

de

l

2002 2007

The public opinion (2)

Important to note that support for imports much smaller than for trade

• 25 new WTO-members

• Decrease in tarrifs and quotas

• Trade facilitiation at the border

• World trade encreased by 170 %

• Trade in services increasing

• Liberalized rules for foreign investments

Decreasing protectionism, 1995-2007

Imports of goods and services increase faster then GDP in almost every country

FDI´s grow even faster

Conclusion:

Trade policy has,

almost by any measure,

been dramatically liberalised

almost everywhere

since 1995

Trends in world trade – long term

• Global market place

• Global Value Chains

• Goods -> Services

• Servicification

• e-commerce

Other tendencies - short term?

• Crises effects, politics

• New protectionism

• Public procurement, internationally, EU, Sweden, locally

• Local production

• Climate concerns?

Development aspects

Emerging markets

0

10

20

30

40

50

And

el (%

)

Regional fördelning av varuexporten i världen (1963 och 2007)

1963

2007

Export by regions (1963 och 2007)

50

Fragmenterad produktion

“The first unbundling” – Baldwin

Olika arbetsinsatser genomförs på samma plats (i samma land)

Fragmenterad produktion

“The second unbundling” – Baldwin

“Trade in tasks” - arbetsuppgifterna sprids ut över världen

Fragmentering kan ske på flera olika sätt – inom eller utom företaget, i hemlandet eller i utlandet

Offshoring och outsourcing leder till handel med insatser

A typical Swedish motor vehicle is only 50 % Swedish…

Made in Sweden?

One third of Sweden´s exports consists of imports

Källa: Egna beräkningar baserade på SCB:s Input-Outputtabeller

Swedish exports are not only made in Sweden

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Russ

iaIn

dia

Braz

ilU

nite

d St

ates

Arg

entin

aA

ustr

alia

Indo

nesi

aSo

uth

Afr

ica

Japa

nU

nite

d Ki

ngdo

mN

ew Z

eala

ndN

orw

ayIs

rael

Turk

eySw

itzer

land

Italy

Fran

ceSp

ain

Ger

man

yG

reec

eCh

ina

Pola

ndCa

nada

Aus

tria

Port

ugal

Swed

enD

enm

ark

Net

herl

ands

Finl

and

Mex

ico

Chin

ese

Taip

eiKo

rea

Belg

ium

Slov

enia

Czec

h Re

publ

icSl

ovak

Rep

ublic

Esto

nia

Irel

and

Hun

gary

Luxe

mbo

urg

OECD-average: 31 %

Sectors

Tjänstesektorer

En Boeing Dreamliner : Made in America?

43 subcontractors

Spread on 135 production facilities in the world

Among other things, wings made in Japan, the engines of in the U.S. and Great Britain, the doors in France and Sweden

70 % of the components are manufacturesd outside the U.S.

”Källa: Newhouse, John and A. A, Knopf (2007), Boeing vs Airbus, The inside story of the greatest international competetion in business, New York, USA

Ett växande avstånd mellan företagens verklighet och handelspolitiken

“While the nature of global trade has changed, trade regulation in the EU and other OECD economies has remained

largely the same.”

“Everybody is in Services”

– The Impact of Servicification in Manufacturing on Trade and Trade Policy(under tryck)

•E-commerce

•New options

•New barriers

•Cloud computing

Trends in world trade – long term

• Global market place

• Global Value Chains

• Goods -> Services

• Servicification

• e-commerce

But also

Other tendencies - short term?

• Crises effects, politics

• New protectionism

• Public procurement, internationally, EU, Sweden, locally

• Local production

• Climate concerns?

Development aspects

Emerging markets

The relationship between international trade and transport modes

Källa: UNCTAD (2008)

Andel av världshandeln i vikt (2006)

CO2 emissions by sector and the transport sector

Källor: IEA (2011) och OECD (2010b)

Emission intensity for different modes

Källa: Cristea m.fl. (2011)

CO

2-u

tslä

pp p

er t

on-k

m

How does trade effect CO2 emissions?

• Transports 

• Production: location, methods

• Innovations and technical developments are spread

A surgery Made in Sweden?A surgery Made in Sweden?

A commute Made in Hong Kong?A commute Made in Hong Kong?

Swedish trade with other EU countries

Exports 61 %

Imports 72 %

Källa: SCB

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Sveriges 12 viktigaste exportmarknader 2011Andel av Sveriges totala export

An

de

l(%

)

Källa: SCB

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Sveriges 12 viktigaste leverantörsländer 2011Andel av Sveriges totala import

An

de

l (%

)

EU(27)56%

Övriga Europa15%

Afrika4%

Amerika10%

Asien13%

Oceanien m fl2%

Regional fördelning av svensk export efter bestämmelseland

Andel av total export 2011

Varuexport till Sveriges fem största exportländer

Källa: SCB

Varuimport från Sveriges fem största importländer

Källa: SCB

What companies regard as their home market?

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

Världen EU Norden Sverige Närområdet

Vad hindrar att företagen ser EU som sin hemmamarknad?

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Produktanpassning

Vill inte växa

Resurser

Koncern/licens

Språk

Inget intresse

Byråkrati

Ser företagen den inre marknaden som ett hot eller möjlighet?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Främst ett hot Främst en möjlighet Varken eller

SOLVIT Centre

• Provides assistance to companies andprivate citizens encountering trade barriers

• Free of charge

Sveriges varuexport och världsmarknadsandel

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

År

Sveri

ges v

aru

exp

ort

, m

iljo

ner

US

D

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

Sveri

ges a

nd

el

av d

en

tota

la v

aru

exp

ort

en

i v

ärl

den

Sveriges varuexport Sveriges andel av den totala varuexporten i världen

Source: National Board of Trade (2010)

Swedish companies’ problem with exports (%)

Do you find that customs duties or other trade barriers have increased since the start of the financial crisis?

Yes No Don’t know

Total 7.0 87.9 5.1

Size of company

Small 6.6 88.0 5.4

Medium-sized 9.4 88.1 2.5

Large 7.9 85.0 7.2

Larger companies experience increased trade barriers

WTO

Members (153)

Applicantcountries (30)

Key issues in Doha round

• Agriculture

• Industrial Goods, NAMA

• Services Trade

Genomsnittlig tullnivå för industrivaror i i-länder

Tullnivåer i i-länder och u-länder

0

100

200

300

400

500

1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008

Nu

mb

er o

f F

TA

s

Notified to GATT/WTO Notified to GATT/WTO and in force

WTO is founded

Source: WTO RTA gateway

FTAs notified and active (1948-2008)

EU:s new approach in FTAs

• Global Europe– EU:s economic interest

– Abolish all tariffs and other import restrictions

– Include services and investments

– Non Tariff Measures

– Sectors

– Sustainable development

• Agreement with South Korea

EU trade policy

• Common policy

• EU acts as one part in WTO

• Customs Union

• Import Quotas

• Antidumping and other safeguards

• Free Trade Agreements

• Common Agicultural Policy, CAP

“Nations do not trade, nor do sectors.It is firms that trade” “… This simple truth makes it clear that understanding the firm-level facts is essential to

good policy-making in Europe. The view that it is important to focus on the firm rather than the sector is the single most important message of recent developments in international

economics”.

Citat från EU-sponsrade forskningsprojektet:European Firms in a

Global Economy (EFIGE)

The National Board of Trade reports on global value chains

• 2007: Adding value to the European Economy

• 2010: Made in Sweden? (engelska och svenska)

• 2010: At your service/Till er tjänst

• 2010: Servicification of Swedish manufacturing

• 2012: Business reality and trade policy – Closing the gap

www.kommers.se/verksamhetsomraden/Utrikeshandel/

Trade related Development Cooperation

Contribute to developing countries

• trade possibilities and

• trade negotiation capacity

Surveys and publications

• Reports in Swedish and English

• Website: www.kommers.se

www.kommers.se