national association of state directors of career technical education spring meeting georgetown...

National Association of State Directors of Career Technical Education

Spring Meeting

Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce

April 9, 2009

Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009

Figure 1: The Business Cycle: We need to think about acting in a recession as setting the grounds for recovery

Source: CEW’s Analysis of Macroeconomic Advisers (MA) Long-term Economic Outlook, January 2009

99.4

158.5160.5

146.7

99.2

144.9141.9

119.6

88.0

98.0

108.0

118.0

128.0

138.0

148.0

158.0

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

MA Forecast

Mar 01-Nov 01 recession

Jul 81-Nov82

Jul 90-Nov91

Jan 80-Jul 80

recession

Dec 07-present

recession


Less than 4 years of High School

4.6%

10.1%

4 or more years of High School, no College

2.9%

5.8%

2.9%

Some college, 1-3 years 4.2%

1.3%BA and above

2.1%

4.4%

All

0.0%

4.0%

8.0%

12.0%

16.0%

20.0%

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Nov 73-Mar75Recession

Jan 80-Jul 80Recession

Jul 81-Nov 82Recession

Jul 90-Mar91Recession

Mar 01-Nov 01Recession

Dec '07-presentRecession

Figure 2: Those with relatively lower levels of human capital are most

negatively affected by recessions Unemployment by Education Level

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation (various years)

Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation (February 2009)

Figure 3:

Most current data on unemployment by education level

Less than a high school diploma

12.6%

7.4%

8.3%

4.7%

High school graduates, no college

Some college or associate degree

3.8%

7%

Bachelor's degree or higher

4.1%

2.1%

4.8%

8.1%

All

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Feb 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08 Jan 09 Feb 09

Figure 4: Education Requirements for Stimulus Package Jobs

Source: Carnevale, Strohl and Smith’s analysis of O*NET Education and Training data by Occupation


445,396

1,258,637

287,303

338,514

336,807

691,095

49,936

168,494

9,633

50,658

36,163

1,364

High school dropout (12%)

High school graduate (34%)Post-secondary certificate (8%)

Some college no degree (9%)

Associate degree (9%)

Bachelor's degree (19%)

Post-bachelor's certificate (1.4%)

Master's degree (5%)

Post master's certificate (0.3%)

First professional degree (1.4%)

PhD (1%)

Post doctoral training (0.04%)

3,675,000 TotalSource: O*NET Education and Training by Occupation

586,00025%

677,20129%

251,66111%

286,60912%

243,35810%

146,3606%

83,4334%

61,2283%

None or shortdemo

Short demo to 1Month

1-3 months 3-6 months 6-12 months 1-2 years 2-4 years More than 4years

*Non-college jobs include high school dropouts, high school graduates, post-secondary certificates and some college but no degree.

Source: Carnevale, Strohl and Smith’s analysis of O*NET Education and Training data by Occupation Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009

Figure 5: Many of the non-college jobs* in the stimulus package require employer-paid classroom

training which is often short and could be satisfied by job preparation and other training

Graduate Degree7%

Bachelor's Degree9%

Some College12%

High School Graduates

40%

High School Dropouts

32%

Source: March CPS 1973

Labor force in 1973: 91 million


10%


34%

Some College19%

Associate's Degree8%

Bachelor's Degree19% Graduate Degree

10%




9%


24%

Some College16%


Bachelor's Degree27%

Graduate Degree12%

Source: CEW Forecasts of Education Demand 2018



Figure 6: Distribution of Education in Jobs, (1973, 1992, 2007, 2018)

Percentage of prime-age (25-54) employment

Source: CEW’s Analysis of March CPS data, various years


11%

Some College17%

Bachelor's Degree21%

Graduate Degree11%


30%




Figure 7: On average, earnings follow the hierarchy of educational attainment

$0

$60,000

$120,000

TOTAL Men Women

$2004

High school graduateSome CollegeVocational certificateAssociate degreeBachelor's degreeMaster's degreeProfessional degreeDoctoral degree

Source: Survey of Income and Program Participation, 2004 Panel


Figure 8: But earnings also depend on field of study

0%

25%

50%

Licenses andCertificatesversus AA

Licenses andCertificatesversus BA

AA degreesversus BA

AA degreesversus Licensesand Certificates

BA degreesversus Licensesand Certificates

BA degreesversus AAs

43% of Licenses and Certificates

earn more than an AA 31% of AAs

earn more than a BA

27% of License and Certificates earn more than an BA

42% of AAs earn less than

a Licenses and

Certificates

23% of BAs earn less than Licenses and Certificates

25% of BAs earn less than an AA degree

Source: National Educational Longitudinal Study, 2000 Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009

Figure 9: Sometimes Certificates are more valuable than AAs or even BAs a Certificate in Engineering earns more than an AA in the Liberal Arts, Education

and Social and Natural Sciences and more than a BA in Education

0

40,000

80,000

120,000

TOTAL Business Computers Engineering Liberal arts Socialscience

Naturalscience

Education Other

Degree Type

20

04

$

Vocational Certificate*

Associate degree

Bachelor's degree

Master's degree

Source: Survey of Income and Program Participation, 2004 Panel

46,596

Earnings of Engineering Certificate


Figure 10: Even when one receives an AA degree, there is wide variation in the earnings

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

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Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009Source: March CPS data, 2007

national association of state directors of career technical education spring meeting georgetown...

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