National Association of State Directors of Career Technical Education
Spring Meeting
Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce
April 9, 2009
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
Figure 1: The Business Cycle: We need to think about acting in a recession as setting the grounds for recovery
Source: CEW’s Analysis of Macroeconomic Advisers (MA) Long-term Economic Outlook, January 2009
99.4
158.5160.5
146.7
99.2
144.9141.9
119.6
88.0
98.0
108.0
118.0
128.0
138.0
148.0
158.0
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
MA Forecast
Mar 01-Nov 01 recession
Jul 81-Nov82
Jul 90-Nov91
Jan 80-Jul 80
recession
Dec 07-present
recession
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
Less than 4 years of High School
4.6%
10.1%
4 or more years of High School, no College
2.9%
5.8%
2.9%
Some college, 1-3 years 4.2%
1.3%BA and above
2.1%
4.4%
All
0.0%
4.0%
8.0%
12.0%
16.0%
20.0%
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Nov 73-Mar75Recession
Jan 80-Jul 80Recession
Jul 81-Nov 82Recession
Jul 90-Mar91Recession
Mar 01-Nov 01Recession
Dec '07-presentRecession
Figure 2: Those with relatively lower levels of human capital are most
negatively affected by recessions Unemployment by Education Level
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation (various years)
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation (February 2009)
Figure 3:
Most current data on unemployment by education level
Less than a high school diploma
12.6%
7.4%
8.3%
4.7%
High school graduates, no college
Some college or associate degree
3.8%
7%
Bachelor's degree or higher
4.1%
2.1%
4.8%
8.1%
All
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Feb 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08 Jan 09 Feb 09
Figure 4: Education Requirements for Stimulus Package Jobs
Source: Carnevale, Strohl and Smith’s analysis of O*NET Education and Training data by Occupation
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
445,396
1,258,637
287,303
338,514
336,807
691,095
49,936
168,494
9,633
50,658
36,163
1,364
High school dropout (12%)
High school graduate (34%)Post-secondary certificate (8%)
Some college no degree (9%)
Associate degree (9%)
Bachelor's degree (19%)
Post-bachelor's certificate (1.4%)
Master's degree (5%)
Post master's certificate (0.3%)
First professional degree (1.4%)
PhD (1%)
Post doctoral training (0.04%)
3,675,000 TotalSource: O*NET Education and Training by Occupation
586,00025%
677,20129%
251,66111%
286,60912%
243,35810%
146,3606%
83,4334%
61,2283%
None or shortdemo
Short demo to 1Month
1-3 months 3-6 months 6-12 months 1-2 years 2-4 years More than 4years
*Non-college jobs include high school dropouts, high school graduates, post-secondary certificates and some college but no degree.
Source: Carnevale, Strohl and Smith’s analysis of O*NET Education and Training data by Occupation Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
Figure 5: Many of the non-college jobs* in the stimulus package require employer-paid classroom
training which is often short and could be satisfied by job preparation and other training
Graduate Degree7%
Bachelor's Degree9%
Some College12%
High School Graduates
40%
High School Dropouts
32%
Source: March CPS 1973
Labor force in 1973: 91 million
High School Dropouts
10%
High School Graduates
34%
Some College19%
Associate's Degree8%
Bachelor's Degree19% Graduate Degree
10%
Source: March CPS 1992
Labor force in 1992: 129 million
High School Dropouts
9%
High School Graduates
24%
Some College16%
Associate's Degree12%
Bachelor's Degree27%
Graduate Degree12%
Source: CEW Forecasts of Education Demand 2018
Labor force in 2018: 166 million
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
Figure 6: Distribution of Education in Jobs, (1973, 1992, 2007, 2018)
Percentage of prime-age (25-54) employment
Source: CEW’s Analysis of March CPS data, various years
High School Dropouts
11%
Some College17%
Bachelor's Degree21%
Graduate Degree11%
High School Graduates
30%
Associate's Degree10%
Source: March CPS 2007
Labor force in 2007: 154 million
Figure 7: On average, earnings follow the hierarchy of educational attainment
$0
$60,000
$120,000
TOTAL Men Women
$2004
High school graduateSome CollegeVocational certificateAssociate degreeBachelor's degreeMaster's degreeProfessional degreeDoctoral degree
Source: Survey of Income and Program Participation, 2004 Panel
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
Figure 8: But earnings also depend on field of study
0%
25%
50%
Licenses andCertificatesversus AA
Licenses andCertificatesversus BA
AA degreesversus BA
AA degreesversus Licensesand Certificates
BA degreesversus Licensesand Certificates
BA degreesversus AAs
43% of Licenses and Certificates
earn more than an AA 31% of AAs
earn more than a BA
27% of License and Certificates earn more than an BA
42% of AAs earn less than
a Licenses and
Certificates
23% of BAs earn less than Licenses and Certificates
25% of BAs earn less than an AA degree
Source: National Educational Longitudinal Study, 2000 Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
Figure 9: Sometimes Certificates are more valuable than AAs or even BAs a Certificate in Engineering earns more than an AA in the Liberal Arts, Education
and Social and Natural Sciences and more than a BA in Education
0
40,000
80,000
120,000
TOTAL Business Computers Engineering Liberal arts Socialscience
Naturalscience
Education Other
Degree Type
20
04
$
Vocational Certificate*
Associate degree
Bachelor's degree
Master's degree
Source: Survey of Income and Program Participation, 2004 Panel
46,596
Earnings of Engineering Certificate
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
Figure 10: Even when one receives an AA degree, there is wide variation in the earnings
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
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Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009Source: March CPS data, 2007