narendra murkumbi shree renuka sugars ltd. · 30.00 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05...
TRANSCRIPT
Narendra MurkumbiShree Renuka Sugars Ltd.
1st September, 2009
The Production Cycle
Impact on Industry
Impact on Farmers
Policy Changes
Industry’s Response
An agenda for the future
2
1) Supply – Demand Mismatch
2) Irregular Monsoon
3) Sugar – Cane Economics
4) Gur !
4
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
20.00
22.00
24.00
26.00
28.00
30.00
1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09*
Production Consumption
52009 2008
6
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09
Rs/MT
S M P Maharashtra Price of Cane Average Sugar Price
Cane Prices Sugar Prices
7
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2005-06 2006-07 2008-09
Cane Arrears (As on 28th April, 2008)
Cane Arrears(As on 28-Apr-08)Source: Hindu Business Line
Rs. mln
8
Gur is used both as an alternative sweetener and as feedstock for illicit liquor production
Gur producers have low inventory and hence respond faster to changes in cane availability by tweaking the cane price
Gur-making is inherently an inefficient process with upto 30% of the juice not extracted by the rudimentary crushers employed
9
Doubling of overheads
Increased competition for
cane, hence low unit margins
Lower recovery of sugar per
ton cane due to shorter crop
cycle and weather stress
Decrease in production of by-
products viz. bagasse and
molasses11
StateCapacity Utilisation
Andhra Pradesh 52%
Gujarat 73%
Maharashtra 54%
Tamilnadu 78%
Uttar Pradesh 41%
Karnataka 63%
Others 50%
All India 53%
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10
Farm Incomes Cost of Cultivation
13*Estimates for 2009-10 Source: SRSL Research
Rs/Ha
Advance License Scheme: Imported raw sugar allowed to be refined and sold in the domestic market with an obligation to re-export in the next 3 years
Duty Free Raw Sugar Imports allowed without export obligation until 31st July ;
1 mln mt of White Sugar allowed to be imported by the Public Sector Trading Cos.
Duty Free Raw Sugar Imports extended till March 2010;
1 mln mt of White Sugar imports allowed till November, 2009 under Open General License
Production Estimates:18 – 20 mmt
Production Estimates:16 - 17 mmt
Production Estimate:15 mmt
15
(Feb, 2009)
(July, 2009)
(April, 2009)
Squeeze the inventory pipeline by bringing strict stock controls on traders backed by stringent laws
Restrictions on industrial users of sugar for inventory beyond 15 days consumption
Restriction on storage of sugar at ports with intention to accelerate flow of imported sugar to the market
16
18
Oct 08 – Sep 09 Oct 09 – Sep 10
Opening Stock - 1.4
Arrivals 2.4
Purchase Estimates 2.6
Refining 1.0 6.0
Balance 1.4 - 2.0 Source: SRSL Research Figures in mln mt
19
Oct-Mar Mar-Sep Totals
Uttar Pradesh 1.50 0.50 2.00
South India 0.60 0.90 1.50
Shree Renuka 0.55 0.85 1.40
Eid Parry 0.15 0.25 0.40
Maharashtra 0.70 0.00 0.70
Total India 3.50 2.50 6.00
Source: SRSL Research Figures in mln mt
The domestic sugar industry has supported the govt’s aim to supply cheap sugar to families classified as “below poverty line”
Industry expects a fairer price for this sugar based on expected cost of production
The price of the balance sugar, it is hoped, will be allowed to reflect market forces
20
Complete decontrol of sales and stocks
Cane price based on sharing of revenue
National Ethanol Programme
Access to the national power grid for
cogeneration under the open-access system
21
Acknowledgements
The Team at Shree Renuka
Mr. G K Sood
Pratik Vora
Sachin Wadhwa