Name of presenter(s) or subtitle

And they’re off…?Richard Jenkins

Vice President, Corporate Director of Public Opinion Research

2©2005 TNS Canadian Facts

Thoughts…

Reversing a trend… turnout rises

The Expectations Game and Big Mo

Polls, Polls, Everywhere there’s Polls

What next?

3©2005 TNS Canadian Facts

Turnout in Federal Elections: 1962 to 2006

79

74.875.7

76.7

71

75.7 75.3 75.3

69.6

67

64.1

60.9

69.3

64.9

50

60

70

80

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Source: Elections Canada

The irony of a turnout rebound during an election Canadians did not want

4©2005 TNS Canadian Facts

The Vote

Seats Votes

2004 2006 2004 2006

Liberal 135 103 37% 30%

Conservative99 124 30% 36%

NDP19 29 16% 18%

Bloq 54 51 12% 11%

Other1 1 6% 6%

5©2005 TNS Canadian Facts

The Vote by Region

Liberal CPC NDP Bloc Other

2006 +/- 2006 +/- 2006 +/- 2006 +/- 2006 +/-

Atlantic 20 -2 9 +2 3 0 0 0

Quebec13 -8 10 +10 0 0 51 -3 1 +1

Ontario54 -21 40 +16 12 +5 0 0

Prairies/ territories

7 0 20 0 4 0 0 0

Alberta0 -1 28 +1 0 0 0 0

B.C.9 +1 17 -5 10 +5 0 -1

6©2005 TNS Canadian Facts

If a little knowledge is a dangerous thing…?

Unprecedented polling.

Daily polling

CPAC-SES

Globe and Mail/CTV-Strategic Counsel

Toronto Star-EKOS

Other

Decima

Pollara

Leger

Environics

7©2005 TNS Canadian Facts

Comparing the Horserace: January 12th

28

31

28 29

3840

38 37

18

1416

18

1210 11 11

46 6 5

0

10

20

30

40

Ekos SES CPAC Strategic Ipsos-Reid

Liberal Conservative NDP Bloc Other

8©2005 TNS Canadian Facts

Comparing the Horserace: January 17th

29

32

25

3537

41

18 18 17

13

1012

4 4 5

0

10

20

30

40

Ekos SES CPAC Strategic

Liberal Conservative NDP Bloc Other

9©2005 TNS Canadian Facts

SES Polling

29 293030

28

2626

30

3231

3031

3233

3130

2929

31

2929

3132

3435

3635

34 343435

3938

40

383837373737

3636

38

36

0

20

40

1-Dec 6-Dec 11-Dec 16-Dec 21-Dec 26-Dec 31-Dec 5-Jan 10-Jan 15-Jan 20-Jan 25-Jan

Lib

CPC

NDP

Bloc

Green

10©2005 TNS Canadian Facts

Strategic Counsel Polling

30 30292929

30

28

303031

293030

29293030

29

313232

33

35

3738

393938

4040

4241

3738

3737

0

20

40

1-Dec 6-Dec 11-Dec 16-Dec 21-Dec 26-Dec 31-Dec 5-Jan 10-Jan 15-Jan 20-Jan 25-Jan

Lib

CPC

NDP

Bloc

Green

11©2005 TNS Canadian Facts

EKOS Polling

27

36

38

35

43

373736

3839

36

41

3537

38

0

20

40

10-Dec 15-Dec 20-Dec 25-Dec 30-Dec 4-Jan 9-Jan 14-Jan 19-Jan 24-Jan

Lib

CPC

NDP

Bloc

Green

12©2005 TNS Canadian Facts

Strategic Counsel versus SES Polling: Liberals

37

38

37

38

4040

41

3939

3838

393939

3838

373737

39

38 38

3535

333333

32

3131

30

29

31

29

30

29

30

32

31

2929

27

30

20

40

1-Dec 6-Dec 11-Dec 16-Dec 21-Dec 26-Dec 31-Dec 5-Jan 10-Jan 15-Jan 20-Jan 25-Jan

Strategic

SES

13©2005 TNS Canadian Facts

Strategic Counsel versus SES Polling: PC

29 29

3030

28

2626

30

32

31

30

31

32

33

31

30

2929

31

2929

31

32

34

35

36

35

34 3434

35

39

38

40

3838

37373737

3636

38

36

20

40

1-Dec 6-Dec 11-Dec 16-Dec 21-Dec 26-Dec 31-Dec 5-Jan 10-Jan 15-Jan 20-Jan 25-Jan

Strategic

SES

14©2005 TNS Canadian Facts

Variation

SES

Ranked ballot

Daily numbers reported on three day moving averages

400 eligible voters each day

Strategic Counsel

Daily numbers reported on three day moving averages

500 interviews per night