mumbai 10th log & supply chain - arcadis beardj 2016-09-22
TRANSCRIPT
Inc. Langdon Seah | Hyder Consulting | EC Harris
“Logistics in a world of
slowing globalization –
scale, scope & investment”
10th Express, Logistics & Supply Chain Conclave
Dr Jonathan Beard
22nd September Mumbai
Source: Vesseltracker.com
© Arcadis 2015
Outline Global trade remains subdued – prospects
for a recovery?
The promise of new technologies…and technology disruption
Container shipping responses – economies of scale and “better together”
Economies of scale or gigantic follies –aviation and maritime compared
Funding future investment – money is there, but project preparation is critical
23 September 2016 2
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Global Trade Remains Subdued World trade volume growth to remain
sluggish: 2016 at 2.8% (same as
2015), rising to 3.6% in 2017 (WTO
Over medium term world trade growth
& “container trade multiplier” has
fallen.1990-99, container volumes
grew 3.5x rate of global GDP growth;
2000-09 only 2.7x GDP growth;
average GDP-to-trade multiplier of
~1.2 since 2010)..
….and despite low fuel prices
Source: Institute for Shipping Economic and Logistics; CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic
Policy Analysis; US Energy Information Administration
Container shipping trend throughput index, January 2007 – January 2016
Seasonally adjusted trend index, 2010=100
World Merchandise Trade GrowthLast 3 months on Preceding 3 months
Brent Crude Oil Spot Price FOB
© Arcadis 2015
Global air traffic growth has been surprisingly resilient…
Note: RPK (revenue passenger kilometers) equals the number of passengers multiplied by the journey length (km). It is a measure of demand
Source: ICF; ICAO; IATA forecast as of December 2014; International Monetary Fund (“IMF”), World Economic Outlook, October 2014
Historical Traffic vs. GDP and GDP Growth
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…although Air Cargo has struggledmajor fluctuations, but growth trend has been slowing
23 September 2016 5Source: Arcadis based on AAHK
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
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25%
1998 2003 2008 2013
Y-o-Y 5yr CAGR 10yr CAGR
Hong Kong International Airport as a proxy – growth rates for cargo Throughput (tonnes) 1998-2015
Major challenge for capacity planning – uplift and terminal capacity
© Arcadis 2015
Structural and Cyclical Factors at Play
Economic uncertainty in Europe,
US recovery relatively strong
Slowing pace of trade
liberalization…
China (fastest growing & 2nd
largest economy) slowing down:
Q1 yoy 6.3%, quarter over quarter
1.1%...
…and restructuring away from
dependence on export
growth….possible “hard landing”
China producing more semi-
manufactured products – share of
imported components in exports
60% 1990s vs 35% 2010s
India liberalization would help, but
cannot “fill the gap”
Source: WTO; National Bureau of Statistics China; ADB; ICF
© Arcadis 2015
Whither Globalisation and Trade Liberalisation?
Source: World Bank; WSJ; WTO; Christianpost.com
Percent of imported products subject to trade barriers in G20 countries
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Population and Wage Trends
Source: Global Demographics; ICF based on Population Division of the
Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations
Secretariat, World Population Prospects (2008 Edition) and the
Department of Statistics, Ministry of Interior, Republic of China.
China’s employed workforce
(million)
Population Age
Composition
China’s aging population
and shrinking labour force =
slower economic growth,
unless productivity increases
© Arcadis 2015
Rising labour costs provide supply chain
opportunities in rest of emerging Asia
Source: ILO; The GailFosler Group LLC
Mean Real Monthly Earnings of Employees, Average Annual Growth Rate, 2006-13
But scale, stability and logistics infrastructure of China cannot be easily
replicated…
…and China productivity improvements including major investments in
automation / industrial robots
© Arcadis 2015
Economic slowdown + asset bubble + technology
disruptorsImplications for retail and related supply chains
One-third of China’s
shopping malls will
close in 5 years
The rest must
transform to survive
Driven by:
− Rise of online
shopping & relate
fulfillment networks
(massive growth of
Taobao, SF Express,
etc.)
− Oversupply of malls:
4,000 (3x US)
− Too homogenous
23 September 2016 10Source: Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
© Arcadis 2015
How have key supply chain actors weathered the storm?Terminal operators continue to outperform lines
0%
10%
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APMT HHLA Eurogate DP World ICTSI HPH HPH Trust CMHI PSA
EBITDA Margin - CT Operators2009 2010 2011 20122013 2014 2015
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
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30%
Ma
ers
k
CM
A C
GM
Hapag‐L
loyd
AP
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Ha
njin
CO
SC
ON
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OO
CL
K L
ine
NY
K
EBITDA Margin - Liners 2009 2010 2011 20122013 2014 2015
Source: Annual Reports; ICF Analysis
Notes: EBITDA / Revenue; recent PSA performance to be confirmed
© Arcadis 2015
Airlines
Better EBITDA margin
than shipping lines, but
still struggling to generate
adequate returns on
capital invested
Source:Companies’ Annual Reports, SEC Filings, ICF Analysis
Notes: EBITDA / Revenue; * Cathay Pacific does not separate out operating lease expenses from depreciation and amortization; Japan Airlines filed for
bankruptcy and delisted on 2010 – no financial data was available for FY2010
-20%
-10%
0%
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Ma
ers
k
CM
A C
GM
Hap
ag‐L
loyd
AP
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nji
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CO
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ON
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CL
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ine
NY
K2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
EB
ITD
A M
arg
in
0%
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CathayPacific*
SingaporeAirlines
JapanAirlines*
Air China AirAsia Delta AirLine
Lufthansa
EB
ITD
A M
arg
in
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Shipping
How have key supply chain actors weathered the storm?Airlines have also generally outperformed shipping lines
© Arcadis 2015
Global Spot Freight Rates
Average vessel load factor
FE-US route
FE-Europe route
Source: Shanghai Shipping Exchange; Shanghai
Containerised Freight Index; Alphaliner; Arcadis
Growth of Container Ship Capacity and Demand, 2000-16
$/FEU
Weak demand growth and
declining unit revenues….
Therefore must cut unit costs,
including via mega-vessels, but
this has exacerbated the
supply-demand gap and
depressed utilisation
levels…and hence revenues
Situation will continue for the
medium term and profitability
and sustainability will rely on
further cost reductions and
possible M&A activities
Lines will be ever more focused
on mainline network costs
Ports and Terminals will
continue to face downward
pressure on their charges and
demands for higher service
levels (faster turnaround)
Decreasing unit revenue for shipping lines places huge
pressure on cost reductionWhich cannot be passed on to customers, if lines are to recover
© Arcadis 2015
Note: data as of Jan 2016
Source: Alphaliner
Average Vessel Size by Trade Lane
Economies of Scale to Reduce Unit CostsBut ordering of mega-vessels has generated further surplus capacity
‘Herd’ mentality – where Maersk leads (18,000 TEU),
others quickly follow
OOCL order for 6 x 21,100 TEU, for delivery 2017
One EEE is already laid-up
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Eur-N. Am FE-N.Am FE-Eur ME/ISC related Africa relatedLat Am Related Oceania Related Intra-FE Intra-Europe Global
Current Fleet at May 16
Order-book at May 16
© Arcadis 2015
Safer Together - Filling up the mega-vesselsEconomies of scale via larger alliances
New alliances to defray risk of introducing larger vessels
in subdued demand conditions…
…and secure enough numbers of vessels that are of same
magnitude of size to offer fixed or weekly schedule
Following P3 rejection, four major alliances created / remain:
– 2M
– Ocean Three (O3)
– G6
– CKYHE Alliance
Recent M&A (CMA CGM – NOL; COSCO – CSCL; Hapag-Lloyd -
UASC) is causing restructuring of alliances:
– Ocean Alliance
– The Alliance
– 2M
Account for significant portions of capacity on major trade lanes
Fully accommodating an alliance in key transhipment markets (e.g.
SE Asia) may require 8-9 million TEU capacity…
...or mitigate risk with dual hubs (at additional cost)Source: Alphaliner
© Arcadis 2015
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Market Share (by Capacity), LH Axis HHI (cumulative), RH Axis
Container Shipping Industry Remains Fragmented…….but consolidation is underway
Top 5 operators account for only ~47% of capacity; 86% for top 20 operators.
Notes: Herfindahl-Hirschman index (HHI) measure for market concentration widely used by EU Directorate General for Competition, U.S. Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) and U.S. Department of Justice. Calculated by squaring market share of each firm competing in a market, and then summing the resulting numbers. E.g. if only one firm in an industry, that firm would have 100 per cent market share, and HHI would equal 10,000 (100^2), indicating a monopoly. Or, if there hundreds of firms competing, each would have nearly zero market share, and HHI would be close to zero, indicating nearly perfect competition.U.S. DoJ considers a market with HHI <1,000 to be a competitive; 1,000-1,800 to be a moderately concentrated marketplace; and > 1,800 to be a highly concentrated marketplace. Mergers that increase the HHI by more than 100 points in concentrated markets generally raise antitrust concerns
Herfindahl-
Hirschman index
(HHI) for industry
of 767, well below
the trigger point of
1,000
Much higher for
certain routes,
where cabotage
restrictions limit
competition
Market Analysis top 20 Carriers
Source: Alphaliner; Arcadis; ICF
© Arcadis 2015
Major shipping lines want high performance
- > 35 moves per crane per hour, 230-250 moves/ship hr @ berth for larger vessels
- Reliable berth windows and turnaround time
- Maersk EEE seeking 6,000 moves within 24hrs from terminals….but this requires adequate cargo
Major hub ports (& some gateway ports, e.g. Rotterdam) must efficiently accommodate variety of
vessels sizes (e.g. from feeder / barges to mother vessels) - flexibility in operations
Risk/reward: investment requirements are higher but in the absence of base-load
import/export (IE) cargo, incentives for largest vessels to call may be insufficient – challenge for
smaller transhipment hubs, less so for the major gateway terminals…and major TS hubs?
Possible scenario? Winners “lock in” volume (e.g. Colombo? Singapore?) and establish a
virtuous circle, become mega transhipment (& gateway) hubs; losers, even some smaller gateways
see IE volume routed via a third port, increasing cost of import/export
Infrastructure and services:
- 18m water depth;
- long straight / contiguous quays (1,000m or longer) to provide
maximum flexibility
- adequate number of super post panama cranes: outreach
for ≥23 TEUs across
- land: adequate yard to support quay face operations & large box
exchanges (ideally 600-650m average yard depth / m quay)
- inland connectivity: gate, road, rail, barge, etc. (for gateway ports)
- capacity to accommodate all alliances partners Source: World Maritime News
Port Planning & Performance in an Era of Mega-vessels & Alliances
© Arcadis 2015
Ports of the Future – New Technology, New
Ways of thinking?
More of the same but a bit better (e.g. VICT,
Melbourne; Maasvlakte 2, Rotterdam)
Or a step change in design & operations
But what is the return on investment
and are customers
willing to pay for
superior productivity?
Source: APMT; GRID Logistics Inc;
Hyperloop One
© Arcadis 2015
Limits to Size – Diseconomies of Scale?
“We continue to build ships that are bigger and bigger
and if we can’t get the containers off faster the whole
thing will come to a grinding halt.”
Søren Skou, Maersk CEO, TPM 26 Feb 2015
Citing the example of the Airbus A380 double-
decker jet….“They have the same problem, how do
they get the passengers on and off this double-
decker plane? They solved it by making a double-
decker jetway. What I am asking is, what is the
container terminal industry’s version of the double-
decker jetway? I ask that question to terminal
operators and I never get any good answers.”
Source: GRID Logistics Inc.
© Arcadis 2015
Lessons from the Aviation Sector? Airbus worked closely with aviation authorities and airports to define A380 parameters
and minimize impact on existing infrastructure, BEFORE construction began
80 ft
Initial aircraft design was done with compatibility in
mind, e.g.
“Fit in a 80m x 80m x 80ft box (24.4 m)” – not
significantly larger than a Boeing 747
Use similar ground equipment as for other
widebody aircraft
Main impacts:
Larger plane separation
Double decker air-bridges
Higher reach loaders for upper deck galleys, etc.
Larger luggage carousels
Worked closely with groups of aviation authorities,
airlines, and airport operators to facilitate A380
operations at existing airports with minimum
infrastructure change
Supported International Civil Aviation Organisation
in drafting guidelines for New Large Aircraft
operations
© Arcadis 2015
Lessons from the Aviation Sector? Similar but also very different industries
Supply side in wide-body planes is constrained – only two
major manufacturers
No continual introduction of ever larger aircraft, with
different handling requirements…as there has been with
shipping lines and mega-vessels
Airline approach to alliances driven primarily by regulatory
restrictions – home base / national carriers, rather than
over-capacity or a shortage of passengers to fill planes
A380 has not been a hugely successful aircraft – limited to a few carriers and key routes. Far less
common than mega-vessels for shipping lines… perhaps it is a valid comparison with mega-vessels?
1970 2007
Operators A380 FleetCumulative as % of
Total Fleet
Emirates Airline 59 37.8%
Singapore Airlines 19 50.0%
Lufthansa 13 58.3%
Qantas 12 66.0%
Air France 10 72.4%
Korean Air 10 78.8%
British Airways 9 84.6%
Malaysia Airlines 6 88.5%
Thai Airways International 6 92.3%
China Southern Airlines 5 95.5%
Qatar Airways 4 98.1%
Asiana Airlines 2 99.4%
Etihad Airways 1 100.0%
Grand Total 156
Emirates has the largest A380 fleet; together with Singapore Airlines, they hold 50% of the world A380s
Source: ACAS March 2015, ICF Analysis
© Arcadis 2015
Airline approach to alliances driven primarily by regulatory restrictions – home base /
national carriers, rather than over-capacity or a shortage of passengers to fill planes
Source: ACAS March 2015,
ICF AnalysisMalaysia Airlines puts its entire Airbus A380 fleet up for sale
© Arcadis 2015
So who would want to invest in supply chain infrastructure?
“Developing Asia needs to spend
US$40 trillion on infrastructure
between now and 2030.”
Danny Alexander, AIIB
A major portion of this must go to
transport & logistics infrastructure
Where will the money come from?
Asia is a major exporter of capital. Better question
might be: where are the bankable projects?
Too many “Hambantota airports” (Sri Lanka),
”YuanMo expressways” (Yunnan) & Cai Mep Ports
(Vietnam)
Of 95 PRC road & rail projects with ADB & WB
financing, only a third were economically productive
(traffic volumes on two thirds were below forecast,
cost over-runs, etc)*
Focus on better project preparation….especially
under conditions of slower demand
23 September 2016 23Source: *A Ansar (2016) Oxford University
Thank you
Any questions?
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