Jack Hayes NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services, and

National Weather Service Director

Norman, OK, October 10-12, 2007

Jack Hayes NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services, and

National Weather Service Director

Norman, OK, October 10-12, 2007

National Weather Service

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The Improvement ChainThe Improvement Chain

Predictions

DisseminationDissemination

ObservationsObservations

Data Assimilation

Data Assimilation

Action

Information TechnologyInformation TechnologyResearchResearch

ModelingModeling

Feedback Feedback

NOAA Research IntegrationNOAA Research Integration

Balanced Science Technology Infusion

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Radar is critical to NWS MissionRadar is critical to NWS Mission

• Radar will remain as an operational sensor in the foreseeable future given its proven value.– NEXRAD reduced tornado injuries and deaths by up to 40% and

45%, respectively [Simmons & Sutter, WF, 2005]

• Up to 47% of NWS text and digital products utilize radar data.

• Radar will remain as an operational sensor in the foreseeable future given its proven value.– NEXRAD reduced tornado injuries and deaths by up to 40% and

45%, respectively [Simmons & Sutter, WF, 2005]

• Up to 47% of NWS text and digital products utilize radar data.

A Typical Year Brings: A Typical Year Brings: – 7 Hurricanes7 Hurricanes– 1,000 Tornadoes1,000 Tornadoes– 5,000 Floods5,000 Floods– 10,000 Violent Thunderstorms10,000 Violent Thunderstorms– Drought ConditionsDrought Conditions– 500 Deaths; 5,000 Injuries; 500 Deaths; 5,000 Injuries;

$14 Billion in Losses$14 Billion in Losses

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Robust NWS Science and Technology Infusion History Robust NWS Science and Technology Infusion History

WSR-57WSR-57 WSR-88DWSR-88DWSR-74WSR-74WSR-3WSR-3

Ca. 1957 1958 1976 1992

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Toward Service Improvements May 19, 1960 / Tornado 19 Aug 2007Toward Service Improvements May 19, 1960 / Tornado 19 Aug 2007

PAR PAR

KTLX KTLXWSR-57WSR-57

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NWS is Performance DrivenNWS is Performance Driven

ModernizationModernization

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Years

Per

cen

tag

es (

Y1)

0

5

10

15

20

Min

utes (Y

2)

Tornado Warnings - Accuracy (%)

Tornado Warnings - Accuracy Goals (%)

Tornado Warnings - False Alarm Rate (%)

Tornado Warnings - False Alarm Rate Goals (%)

*Storm-Based Tornado Warning Accuracy Goals (%)

*Storm-Based Tornado False Alarm Rate Goals (%)

Tornado Warnings - Lead Time (Min)

Tornado Warnings - Lead Time Goals (Min)

*Storm-Based Tornado Warning Lead Time Goals (Min)

Tornado Warnings

ModernizationModernization

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Year

Perc

en

tag

es (

Y1)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Min

ute

s (Y

2)

Accuracy Actual (Y1)

Accuracy Goals (Y1)

Lead Time Actual (Y2)

Lead Time Goals (Y2)

Flash Flood Warnings

Tornado lead time jumps from about 6 min to about 10 min

after modernization

Flash flood lead time jumps from about 20 min to about 50

min after modernization

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Our Vision for the Future Our Vision for the Future

Neighborhood-scale warnings of:1.High-Impact Weather events including a 45 to 60 minute

tornado lead time

2. Increasing flash flood lead time from 1 to 3 hours

3. Increasing quantitative precipitation estimation accuracy by reducing bias four-fold

– All enabled by the integration of surveillance radar and sensors sampling the boundary layer driving regional integrated cloud-scale models and intelligent computing along with adaptive systems

-- Fewer deaths and injuries will result from longer lead times and improved accuracy

Neighborhood-scale warnings of:1.High-Impact Weather events including a 45 to 60 minute

tornado lead time

2. Increasing flash flood lead time from 1 to 3 hours

3. Increasing quantitative precipitation estimation accuracy by reducing bias four-fold

– All enabled by the integration of surveillance radar and sensors sampling the boundary layer driving regional integrated cloud-scale models and intelligent computing along with adaptive systems

-- Fewer deaths and injuries will result from longer lead times and improved accuracy

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Time = 0 minutesTime = 0 minutes Storm-scale Model Forecast at 60 minStorm-scale Model Forecast at 60 min

The Future: What will R&D bring?The Future: What will R&D bring?

Probabilistic Tornado Warning

Current 60 Minute Forecast

MostLikelyTornadoPath

T+20min

T+50min

T+30minT+40min

70%

50%

30%

T+60min

Developing thunderstorm..

Projected low-level reflectivity at 1 hour from storm-scale NWP model

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The Challenge: Demonstrate Service significanceThe Challenge: Demonstrate Service significance

• Value of new technology to NOAA mission should be well demonstrated

• The business case must rest on value/benefit• Want compelling examples of how warnings and

services are improved

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BackupBackup

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The Future? What will the R+D bring?The Future? What will the R+D bring?

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PAR VCP 12 BMX

60 sector

Images ~ 43 s

WSR-88D VCP 12 Images ~ 4.1 min

Toward Service Improvement:Tropical Storm Erin TVS near Norge, OK

PAR

KTLX

PAR

KTLX

19 August 2007

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Toward Service Improvements May 19, 1960 / May 29, 2004 TornadoToward Service Improvements May 19, 1960 / May 29, 2004 Tornado

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NOAA’s NWS in Your Neighborhood Doppler RadarsNOAA’s NWS in Your Neighborhood Doppler Radars

Informational Needs & RequirementsDerived from NOAA NWS Mission Needs

NEXRAD resolution

2025 Vision

Neighborhood-scale warnings of:(i) High Impact Weather events including a 45± minute tornado lead time;

(ii) Hurricanes & Inundation improvements in QPF increasing flash flood lead time from 1 to 3 hours;

(iii) Drought & WaterResource management four-fold improvement in QPE reducing in-rain bias from 4 mm to 1 mm

– All enabled by the integration of surveillance radar, short-wavlength radars and other sensors sampling the boundary layer, driving regional integrated cloud-scale models and intelligent along with adaptive systems.

Vision Pulls the Radar RoadmapVision Pulls the Radar Roadmap

Fiscal Year (CONCEPTUAL TIMELINE)

Enabling Technologies

Surveillance Radars

Adaptive DataIntegration

RadarPartnerships

Diverse, Short Wavelength

Gap-Filling Radars (SWR)

B1 B2

R&D

Acquisition /Deploy.

A4

MPAR

WSR-88D (NPI)

B4

A2,3A1

E1,2,3

Targets of Opportunity

D1 D2 D3

SWR

C1C2

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The Future? What will the R+D bring?The Future? What will the R+D bring?