multi-airport systems

Multi-Airport SystemsProf. Richard de Neufville

Airport Planning and Management

Module 23

January 2017

Istanbul Technical University

Air Transportation Management

M.Sc. Program Airport Planning and Management / RdN

Multi-Airport Systems / RdN ©

Two Topics

1. What is a Multi-Airport System (MAS)?

Definition

Examples

Explanation Frequency competition effect

and special roles/markets

2. Role of LCCs in Development

Second Airports Good initial base

Role may decrease as LCC “take over”

from legacy carriers


What is a

Multi-Airport System?

The significant commercial airports

[> 500,000 passengers, excluding military] …

in a metropolitan region

without regard to ownership or political control

Examples: Boston, Providence, Manchester [different states]

Copenhagen (Denmark), Malmö (Sweden)

Istanbul: Ataturk and Sabiha Gokçen airports

Often ex–military [London/Stansted; Frankfurt/Hahn]

In all cities with > 17 million annual

originating passengers


Discussion of Definition

• Our definition contrasts with focus on who

owns the airports (focus of ACI – Airports

Council International, and others)

However, our definition is reality for travelers

and for airlines

They generally do not care who owns

airports [often do not know]

Only care when passport or other issues

complicate use of other airport


Example: Boston

Source: Bonnefoy


Example: New York

Source: Bonnefoy


Multi-Airport Systems in US

Source: Bonnefoy


Example: Frankfurt (Germany)

Source: Bonnefoy


Prof. Richard de Neufville

and

Dr. Philippe A. Bonnefoy

November 2016

See also:

P. Bonnefoy, R. de Neufville and R. Hansman,

“Evolution and Development of Multi-Airport

Systems: A Worldwide Perspective”

ASCE Journal of Transportation Engineering,

Special Issue, Vol. 136, No. 11, pp. 2010-2019 , 2010

Multi-Airport Systems

Database

Multi-Airport Systems / RdN ©10

Multi-Airport Systems Worldwide

Legend

Europe

North America

Latin America &

Caribbean

Middle East

Multi-Airport

System

Asia/Pacific

60 multi-airport systems

in 26 countries



in Asia-Pacific, 2015



in Europe, 2015 (1)



in Europe, 2015 (2)



in Europe, 2015 (3)



Latin America & Middle East, 2015



in North America, 2015 (1)



in North America, 2015 (2)


General Observations

All metropolitan areas with greatest number of

Originating Passengers (eliminating transfers)

feature a MAS

Originating traffic drives MAS formation

Transfer traffic wants to use only 1 airport

Atlanta, World leader in traffic (> 100 million)

has ~ 70% transfers, ~ 15 million

originations/year AND ONLY 1 airport

Second airports mostly serve a fraction (often

small) of total at airport with most passengers.

This reflects concentration factor …


Metropolitan areas with

significant multi-airport systems (1)

de Neufville data base for 2016


Metropolitan areas with

significant multi-airport systems (2)

de Neufville data base for 2016


Planning Issue

Many‘mistakes’ in planning multi-

airport systems

Washington/Dulles – planned as major DC

airport, but had only ~ 3 MAP for 20 years

London/Stansted – similar story – only

developed with Ryanair hub around 2002

Osaka/Kansai – Osaka/Itami did not close

Montreal/Mirabel – huge airfield, now

“closed” to passenger traffic

Et cetera…


Why mistakes happened

Two main causes:

1.Failure to appreciate traffic concentration

at primary airports – result of frequency

competition

2.Because planners/forecasters used wrong

mental model [‘catchment area’] that

passengers go to nearest airport – while

distance is a factor, passengers go to

where airlines offer services they want

(intercontinental, low-cost, etc.)


What drives traffic allocation in

Multi-Airport System?

Airline competition has been primary

S-shaped market share/frequency share

Drives airlines toMatch flights => Use flights for major markets

Concentrate Traffic at primary airports

Frequency Share

Market

Share


Right model: “Concentration”not “Catchment Areas”

Concentration is standard urban

phenomenon

e.g.: financial, jewelry, etc. districts

Driven by what suppliers offer

Customers choose which location

(airport) depending on where they

find what they need -- not just

most convenient facility


“Concentration” persists --

until high level of local traffic

When local originating traffic high…

More flights add little at major airports

Airlines place flights at second airports

There appears to be a ‘threshold”…

Currently ~ 17 million originations/year

Note: higher as “average” aircraft carries more

passengers, larger aircraft or higher load factor


Major exceptions to rule:

technical or political

Until recently, major exceptions to

concentration rule were:

Technical -- runways too short

Belfast, Belo Horizonte, Buenos Aires,

Rio de Janeiro, Taipei

Political -- or military...

Berlin, Dusseldorf/Bonn, Glasgow


Role of Low-cost carriers:

setting up “parallel network”

Low-cost carriers “parallel” majors

Ticket distribution separate

Internet direct to users, ‘no’ travel agents

‘No’ interlining of bags, tickets

‘Not’ in Reservation systems


Theme for Low-Cost Carriers

Low cost carriers have developed a “parallel network” of travel

“network choice” (vs. “airport choice”) boosts traffic in multi-airport systems

Competition between “low cost” and “legacy” airlines leading to struggle between “low cost” and “legacy” hubsMiami/Internatl vs. Miami/Ft. Lauderdale

London/Heathrow vs. London/Stansted, etc.


Situation in 2000 to now:

LCC choose different airports

Spirit and Allegiant (USA); Ryanair and

Easyjet (UK) desire cheap airports

Orlando vs Orlando/Sanford (Allegiant)

Montreal and Montreal/Plattsburg (Spirit)

London/Healthrow and London/Luton (Easyjet)

Low congestion and delays

Flexible work force

They find this at aggressive

airports,‘hungry’for their business


Southwest: Traditional focus

on lesser airports


Europe Network of

Low-Cost Carrier Airports


But what is future?

Low-cost airlines becoming

‘major’Southwest has largest market share of US

domestic passengers in US -- about 20% -

- and has for years

… despite mega mergers

• Delta + Northwest

• UAL + Continental

• American + US Air


LCC’s are now

moving in on hub airports

Boston is an example

jetBlue now largest carrier at Boston/Logan

Southwest has arrived, thus

… de-emphasizing Manchester, Providence

Southwest now also at

New York/LaGuardia; New York/Newark

Washington/Dulles; Philadelphia

Los Angeles/Internatl; San Francisco/Internatl


Meanwhile in cargo

A similar development in air cargo

Fedex and UPS are developing their

own networks of cargo airports

Fedex: Memphis, Indianapolis, San

Francisco/ Oakland, Fort

Worth/Alliance, London/Stansted (UK)

UPS: Louisville, Los Angeles/Ontario,

Chicago/Rockford, Toronto/Hamilton


Summary

Multi-airport Systems:

A well-established phenomenon

Largely driven by originating passengers

Second airports usually smaller than primary

LCCs drove much growth of second

airports up to about 2010, now they are

moving in on larger airports

However, their influence may be decreasing,

as they supplant majors in continental markets

multi-airport systems

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