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Multi-Airport SystemsProf. Richard de Neufville

Airport Planning and Management

Module 24

January 2016

Istanbul Technical University

Air Transportation Management

M.Sc. Program Airport Planning and Management / RdN

Multi-Airport Systems / RdN ©

Three Topics

1. What is a Multi-Airport System (MAS)? Definition

Examples

Explanation Frequency competition effect

and special roles/markets

2. Role of LCCs in Development Second Airports Good initial base

Role may decrease as LCC “take over”

from legacy carriers

3. Thoughts about Istanbul


What is a

Multi-Airport System?

The set of significant commercial airports

[> 500,000 passengers, excluding military] …

in a metropolitan region

without regard to ownership or political control

Examples: Istanbul: Ataturk and Sabiha Gokçen airports

Boston, Providence, Manchester [different states]

Copenhagen (Denmark), Malmo (Sweden)

Often ex–military [London/Stansted; Frankfurt/Hahn]

In all cities with > 17million annual

originating passengers


Discussion of Definition

• Our definition contrasts with focus on who

owns the airports (focus of ACI – Airports

Council International, and others)

However, our definition is reality for travelers

and for airlines

They generally do not care who owns

airports [often do not know]

Only care when passport or other issues

complicate use and choice of airport


Example: Boston

Source: Bonnefoy


Example: New York

Source: Bonnefoy


Multi-Airport Systems in US

Source: Bonnefoy


Example: Frankfurt (Germany)

Source: Bonnefoy


Dr. Philippe A. Bonnefoy

and

Prof. Richard de Neufville

November 2011

See also:

P. Bonnefoy, R. de Neufville and R. Hansman,

“Evolution and Development of Multi-Airport

Systems: A Worldwide Perspective”

ASCE Journal of Transportation Engineering,

Special Issue, Vol. 136, No. 11, pp. 2010-2019 , 2010

Multi-Airport Systems

Database

Multi-Airport Systems / RdN ©10

Multi-Airport Systems Worldwide(as of 2011)

Legend

Europe

North America

Latin America &

Caribbean

Middle East

Multi-Airport

System

Asia/Pacific

60 multi-airport systems

in 26 countries



in Asia-Pacific

World

Region

Metropolitan

Region

Airport

code

(IATA)

Airport name Airport Type

Passenger traffic

(2009 unless

specified)

Year

Passenger traffic in

the multi-airport

system (MAS)

Multi-airport

system traffic

share

Osaka ITM Osaka/Itami Primary 18,948,000 06 31,645,000 60%

Osaka KIX Osaka/Kansai Primary 10,000,000 31,645,000 32%

Osaka UKB Osaka/Kobe Secondary 2,697,000 06 31,645,000 9%

Bangkok DMK Bangkok/Don Mueang Primary 2,780,000 39,780,000 7%

Bangkok BKK Bangkok/Suvarnabhumi Primary 37,000,000 39,780,000 93%

Hong Kong HKG Hong Kong/Intl Primary 45,400,000 69,800,000 65%

Hong Kong SZX Hong Kong/Shenzen Primary 24,400,000 69,800,000 35%

Melbourne MEL Melbourne/Tullamarine Primary 23,900,000 24,900,000 96%

Melbourne AVV Melbourne/Avalon Secondary 1,000,000 24,900,000 4%

Seoul ICN Seoul/Incheon Primary 30,000,000 43,766,000 69%

Seoul GMP Seoul/Gimpo Primary 13,766,000 07 43,766,000 31%

Beijing PEK Beijing/Capital Int Primary 65,300,000 66,650,000 98%

Beijing NAY Beijing/Nanyuan Secondary 1,350,000 08 66,650,000 2%

Shanghai PVG Shanghai/Pudong Primary 31,900,000 56,900,000 56%

Shanghai SHA Shanghai/Hongqiao Primary 25,000,000 56,900,000 44%

Taipei TPE Taipei/Taoyuan Primary 21,600,000 24,690,000 87%

Taipei TSA Taipei/Songshan Primary 3,090,000 24,690,000 13%

Tokyo HND Tokyo/Haneda Primary 61,800,000 93,900,000 66%

Tokyo NRT Tokyo/Narita Primary 32,100,000 93,900,000 34%

Asi

a/Pa

cifi

c



in Europe



in Europe (cont.)



in Latin America & Middle East



in North America

Metropolitan

Region

Airport

code

(IATA)


Passenger traffic

(2009 unless

specified)

Year


the multi-airport

system (MAS)

Multi-airport

system traffic

share

Los Angeles LAX Los Angeles/Intl Primary 55,500,000 75,900,000 73%

Los Angeles SNA Los Angeles/Santa Ana Secondary 8,240,000 75,900,000 11%

Los Angeles ONT Los Angeles/Ontario Secondary 4,710,000 75,900,000 6%

Los Angeles BUR Los Angeles/Burbank Secondary 4,570,000 75,900,000 6%

Los Angeles LGB Los Angeles/Long Beach Secondary 2,880,000 75,900,000 4%

New York JFK New York/Kennedy Primary 45,000,000 101,090,000 45%

New York EWR New York/Newark Primary 32,900,000 101,090,000 33%

New York LGA New York/LaGuardia Primary 21,300,000 101,090,000 21%

New York ISP New York/Islip Secondary 1,890,000 101,090,000 2%

Boston BOS Boston/Logan Primary 24,400,000 32,060,000 76%

Boston PVD Boston/Providence Secondary 4,390,000 32,060,000 14%

Boston MHT Boston/Manchester Secondary 3,270,000 32,060,000 10%

San Francisco SFO San Francisco/Intl Primary 37,000,000 54,210,000 68%

San Francisco OAK San Francisco/Oakland Primary 8,960,000 54,210,000 17%

San Francisco SJC San Francisco/San Jose Secondary 8,250,000 54,210,000 15%

Tampa TPA Tampa/Intl Primary 16,300,000 18,306,000 89%

Tampa SRQ Tampa/Sarasota Secondary 1,290,000 18,306,000 7%

Tampa PIE Tampa/St Petersburg Secondary 716,000 18,306,000 4%

Washington IAD Washington/Dulles Primary 21,200,000 57,800,000 37%

Washington BWI Washington/Baltimore Primary 20,100,000 57,800,000 35%

Washington DCA Washington/Reagan Primary 16,500,000 57,800,000 29%

Chicago ORD Chicago/O'Hare Primary 63,400,000 79,893,000 79%

Chicago MDW Chicago/Midway Secondary 16,300,000 79,893,000 20%

Chicago RFD Chicago/Rockford Cargo 710,000 tons 08



in North America (cont.)

Metropolitan

Region

Airport

code

(IATA)


Passenger traffic

(2009 unless

specified)

Year


the multi-airport

system (MAS)

Multi-airport

system traffic

share

Cleveland CLE Cleveland/Hopkins Primary 9,160,000 10,610,000 86%

Cleveland CAK Cleveland/Akron-Canton Secondary 1,450,000 10,610,000 14%

Dallas DFW Dallas/Fort Worth Primary 52,800,000 60,161,160 88%

Dallas DAL Dallas/Love Field Secondary 7,360,000 60,161,160 12%

Dallas AFW Dallas/Alliance Cargo 585 000 tons 07

Detroit DTW Detroit/Metropolitan Primary 30,600,000 31,557,000 97%

Detroit FNT Detroit/Bishop Secondary 957,000 31,557,000 3%

Houston IAH Houston/Intercontinental Primary 37,700,000 45,490,000 83%

Houston HOU Houston/Hobby Secondary 7,790,000 45,490,000 17%

Miami MIA Miami/Intl Primary 31,700,000 52,100,000 61%

Miami FLL Miami/Fort Lauderdale Primary 20,400,000 52,100,000 39%

Norfolk ORF Norfolk/Intl Primary 3,420,000 4,384,000 78%

Norfolk PHF Norfolk/News Williamsburg Primary 964,000 4,384,000 22%

Orlando MCO Orlando/Intl Primary 32,400,000 34,240,000 95%

Orlando SFB Orlando/Sanford Secondary 1,840,000 34,240,000 5%

Philadelphia PHL Philadelphia/Intl Primary 29,900,000 30,896,000 97%

Philadelphia ACY Philadelphia/Atlantic City Secondary 996,000 30,896,000 3%

San Diego SAN San Diego/Intl Primary 16,800,000 20,200,000 83%

San Diego TIJ San Diego/Tijuana Secondary 3,400,000 20,200,000 17%

Toronto YYZ Toronto/Pearson Primary 30,300,000 31,619,000 96%

Toronto YHM Toronto/Hamilton Secondary 549,000 08 31,619,000 2%

Toronto YTZ Toronto/Island Secondary 770,000 31,619,000 2%

Vancouver YVR Vancouver/Intl Primary 16,100,000 16,603,000 97%

Vancouver YXX Vancouver/Abbotsford Secondary 503,000 08 16,603,000 3%


General Observations

All metropolitan areas with greatest number of

Originating Passengers (eliminating transfers)

feature a MAS

Originating traffic drives MAS formation

Transfer traffic wants to use only 1 airport

Second airports mostly serve a small fraction

of total at airport with most passengers.

This reflects concentration factor …

Until recently, Low-Cost airlines have been

important drivers of new MAS (US, Europe)


Metropolitan areas with

significant multi-airport systems

de Neufville data base for 2007

Traffic in Millions Metropolitan Region For Region Originating

Multi-Airport System

London 137 52 Yes

New York 106 43 Yes

Tokyo 99 42 Yes

Los Angeles 85 37 Yes

Paris 84 32 Yes

Chicago 100 30 Yes

Hong Kong 67 27 Yes

Miami 59 25 Yes

San Francisco 57 24 Yes

Washington/Baltimore 61 21 Yes

Shanghai 43 19 Yes

Seoul 42 19 Yes

Moscow 37 18 Yes

Osaka 38 17 Yes


Metropolitan areas with

significant multi-airport systems

de Neufville data base for 2007

Traffic in Millions Metropolitan Region For Region Originating

Multi-Airport System

Bangkok 42 17 Yes

Beijing 49 17

Boston 36 17 Yes

Sao Paulo 35 17 Yes

Milan 37 16 Yes

Manchester (UK) 35 16 Yes, low-cost

Las Vegas 45 16

Taipei 33 15 Yes

Barcelona 35 15 Yes, low-cost

Amsterdam 48 15 Yes, low-cost

Frankfurt 57 15 Yes, low-cost

Mexico City 36 15 Yes

Atlanta 84 15

Jakarta 32 15

Note: Atlanta has ~ 70% transfers, and not enough originating traffic for MAS


Planning Issue

Many‘mistakes’in planning multi-

airport systems Washington/Dulles – planned as major DC

airport, but had only ~ 3 MAP for 20 years

London/Stansted – similar story – only

developed with Ryanair hub around 2002

Osaka/Kansai – Osaka/Itami did not close

Montreal/Mirabel – huge airfield, now “closed”

to passenger traffic

Et cetera…


Why mistakes happened

Two main causes:

1.Failure to appreciate traffic concentration

at primary airports – result of frequency

competition

2.Because planners/forecasters used wrong

mental model [‘catchment area’] that

passengers go to nearest airport. While

distance is a factor, passengers go to

where airlines offer services they want

(intercontinental, low-cost, etc.)


What drives traffic allocation in

Multi-Airport System?

Airline competition has been primary

S-shaped market share/frequency share

Drives airlines toMatch flights => Use flights for major markets

Concentrate Traffic at primary airports

Frequency Share

Market

Share


Right model: “Concentration”

not “Catchment Areas”

Concentration is standard urban

phenomenonExamples: financial, jewelry districts

Customers go to where supply is best,

suppliers go where customers are

Customers choose which location

(airport) depending on where they find

what they need -- not just most

convenient facility


“Concentration” persists --

until high level of local traffic

When local originating traffic high…

More flights add little at major airports

Airlines place flights at second airports

if and as possible

There appears to be a ‘threshold”…

Currently ~ 17 million originations/yearNote: Threshold rises higher as “average”

aircraft carries more passengers, larger

aircraft or higher load factor


Major exceptions to rule:

technical or political

Until recently, major exceptions to

concentration rule were:

Technical -- runways at closest, most

convenient airport too shortBelfast, Belo Horizonte, Buenos Aires,

Rio de Janeiro, Taipei

Political -- or military...Dusseldorf/Bonn, Glasgow+Edinburgh,

Moscow


Effect of Low-Cost Carriers

LCCs have to some extent developed a

“parallel network” of travel

“network choice” (vs. “airport choice”)

may drive traffic in multi-airport systems

Competition between “low cost” and

“legacy” airlines leading to struggle

between “low cost” and “legacy” hubsMiami/International vs. Miami/Ft. Lauderdale

London/Heathrow vs. London/Stansted, etc.


Role of Low-cost carriers:

setting up “parallel network”

Low-cost carriers “parallel” majors

Major fare distinctions

Ticket distribution separate Internet direct to users, ‘no’ travel agents

Parallel service between citiesProvidence/Baltimore not Boston/Washington

‘No’ interlining of bags, tickets

‘Not’ in Reservation systems


Situation in 2000 to now:

LCC choose different airports

Southwest/AirTran, Allegiant (USA)

Ryanair and EasyJet (UK) require:Cheap properties (compare Oakland and

San Francisco/International;

London/Gatwick and Luton)

Low congestion and delays

Flexible work force

They have found this at aggressive,

‘hungry’ airports -- not major

facilities


US/Canada Network of

Low-Cost Carrier Airports

Metropolitan

Region Secondary

Airport Low-Cost

Carrier

Manchester Southwest Boston

Providence Southwest Dallas/Ft. Worth Love Field Southwest Houston Hobby Southwest Los Angeles Long Beach Jet Blue Miami Ft. Lauderdale Southwest San Francisco Oakland Southwest Vancouver Abbotsford Westjet


Europe Network of

Low-Cost Carrier Airports

Metropolitan Region

Secondary Airport

Low-Cost Carrier

Brussels Charleroi Ryanair

Copenhagen Malmo Ryanair Weeze Ryanair

Düsseldorf Köln / Bonn easyjet

Frankfurt Hahn Ryanair Glasgow Prestwick Ryanair

Luton easyjet London

Stansted Ryanair Manchester Liverpool easyjet Milan Orio al Serio Ryanair Oslo Torp Ryanair Paris Beauvais Ryanair Rome Ciampino Ryanair + easyjet Stockholm Skvasta Ryanair


Meanwhile in cargo

Similar development– networks of

hubs away from passenger hubs

Fedex and UPS are developing their

distinct networks of cargo airports

Fedex: Memphis, Toronto/Hamilton,

San Francisco/ Oakland, Köln, Dubai,

Guangzhou, etc.

UPS: Louisville, Los Angeles/Ontario.

Chicago/Rockford, Köln (also), etc.


Future for Istanbul?

Airports both sides of Bosphorus is

good situation, given difficulties in

crossing

Turkish Airlines almost inevitably will

concentrate at primary airport, likeBritish at London/Heathrow, not others

Air France at Paris/de Gaulle, not Orly

Questions Future of LCC’s at new airport??

Would they serve Ataturk???


Summary

Multi-airport Systems:A well-established phenomenon

Largely driven by originating passengers

Second airports usually smaller than primary

Serve distinct markets

Choice NOT driven by ‘catchment’ area

LCC’s have driven much growth of

second airportsHowever, their influence may be decreasing,

as they supplant majors in continental markets

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