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What Brexit would mean for Germany

Uncertain outlook and a kick-start for Frankfurt?

The United Kingdom is Germany’s third largest trading partner. If it was to leave the European

Union, repercussions would be felt across the German economy. The most imminent would be

uncertainty. Would a bilateral trade deal between the UK and the EU be in place in time for

Brexit? What would it entail? For instance, would EU standards continue to apply in the UK?

And would the bilateral deal be as favourable as current arrangements? These questions would

need to be answered quickly, although trade between the two countries would probably remain

unaffected in the immediate aftermath of a potential leave vote. German investors may start to

look elsewhere sooner. A country dropping out of the world’s largest single market would be a

less safe, and therefore less attractive, place to invest. Investors need certainty to minimize risk.

They would not find it in the UK in the aftermath of a Brexit vote.

Ironically, Germany could also benefit from Brexit, although the extent of this tends to be

exaggerated in the German media. Large parts of Europe’s financial services industry are based

in the City of London and regulated by the British financial services regulatory body. Under

Brexit, they would find themselves outside of the EU, and companies with sizeable European

operations may be forced to relocate at least some of their London-based staff to other EU

countries. As Europe’s second financial city and seat of the European Central Bank, Frankfurt

would seem to be the obvious place for many of them to move to. It is estimated that as many

as 10,000 jobs could migrate from London to Frankfurt as a result of Brexit. However, claims by

some in the German media that Frankfurt could overtake London to become Europe’s new

financial capital are vastly overstated.

The political fallout: unsettling and destabilizing

Some Europhiles have been delighting that Brexit could finally get rid of a major obstacle to

further European integration. However, such rejoicing is not just misplaced, it is also mistaken.

The political fallout of a UK exit would be significant, and the drawbacks would far outweigh

the benefits. The UK and Germany are close allies in the European Council and Council of

Ministers. They tend to agree on key issues like free trade, competitive markets, fiscal

responsibility, etc. – and they often vote together. A British exit would see Germany – as well

as the Netherlands and the Nordic countries – lose a key ally and big hitter in the Council. So

far the big four (France, Germany, Italy, and the UK) have been equally split between North and

South. Without the UK, the balance would tip permanently in favour of the South.

Even more serious is that Brexit could set a dangerous precedent which could threaten the

cohesion of the European Union altogether. Although – like in other member states – support

for the EU is on the wane, Germans still believe in the Union as bringing peace, stability and

prosperity. For a country right at the centre of the EU and highly dependent on exports, this is

understandable and – together with the EU’s founding myth of Franco-German reconciliation –

goes some way to explaining why there are still more calls for deeper rather than less European

integration in Berlin. It is unfathomable for most Germans why anyone, or any country, would

want to leave the EU. A leave vote would be deeply unsettling for many in Germany.

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Florian Wastl heads MSL Germany’s corporate and public affairs team in

Berlin. He has over ten years of experience in communications and

specializes in guiding international corporations through the German

political and media landscapes. Prior to joining MSLGROUP in 2011,

Florian held a number of other communications positions, including as

press spokesperson and at the British Cabinet Office.