msg 147 m&s support for crisis and disaster management
TRANSCRIPT
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MSG 147 M&S support for Crisis and
Disaster Management Processes and
Climate Change Implications
Orlin NIKOLOVCOL BGR – AF
Chief of Capabilities Branch CMDR COE
Input Data
Database
Operator
Interface
Disaster Mathematical
Models EngineDisaster Model
Results to HLA object
Transformer
Federation
Simulation 1
1 2 3
Simulation 2
4
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Agenda
1. Disasters and CCI
2. M&S support for CMD processes and CCI
3. Conceptual model and campaign overview
4. LOE 1 Demo-Experiment MSG-147
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NATO OPERATIONAL PLANNING PROCESS
1. Disaster Risk Management as part of
the planning process
Risk Assessment
Preventing/Mitigating Measures
2. Disaster Management as part of NATO
military operation
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Compiling the NATO Exercise Management
Environment *
13/06/2017 * JFTC: LTC Wolfhard Schmidt 5
Dashboard
JEMM
EXCON COP
MEL/MIL
EXercise Information Service (EXIS)
Units – Holdings – Story Lines – Events – Shared Layers - Plans
Web-Service: SOAP - REST
EXIS
Mgmt
Service
EXCON Business Applications
COP - SA
Simulation
C2 – ISR
Interoperability
Link-16, NFFI, ICC Update,
Formatted messages
Training
Objectives
TOMM
Setting
JEST
Evaluation
EEPROM
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Disasters & Climate Change Implications
6*The human cost of weather related disasters –
Centre of research of epidemiology of disasters (CRED)
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Decision Making Support and Data Analysis platform
for CMDP and Climate Change Implications (M&S Support for CMDR Processes and CCI)
The aim of the project is to develop a technical architecture capable of
supporting and conducting CDM exercises and analysis.
It should be established with several crisis management and disaster response
tools and simulations that are supported by NATO and enable non-military type
operations.
The software environment should enable to
provide:
- distributed environment including HLA and
DIS
- automated data collection,
- engine for modeling with defined triggers,
- C2 logic and SOPs implementation;
- a dynamically generated plan for
Crisis/Disaster Response,
- prognosticate and Climate Change analyses
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Decision Making Support and Data Analysis
platform for CMDR and Climate Change
The expected benefits are:
• Reducing of human influence over data collection and
modifying process,
• Crisis/Disaster evolution trend forecast, synthesizing and
usage of best practices, experience and knowledge
related with specific system conditions,
• Fast and accurate calculations for support of decision
makers,
• Conducting CMDR exercise, experiments, tests,
evaluation and analysis in proper close to reality
environment,
• Prognosticate and evaluation of disasters in support of
decision makers,
• Evaluation of Climate Change on Military activities.
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Decision Making Support and Data Analysis
platform for CMDR and Climate Change
The timeline would be linked to the operational support for key events in
the crisis management and disaster response community (NATO CMX,
EADRCC exercises, SEESIM, VIKING, other) as the major initial
operational capability (IOC) milestone.
Phase 1 – twelve (12) months in length and result in the development and approval of the
Master Plan to guide and direct this project.
Phase 2 – twelve (12) months is length and result in the initial operational capability (IOC).
Planning experimentation, testing and training for CMXs would be conducted as well during
this phase.
Phase 3 – twelve (12) months is length and result successful support and execution of CM
exercises and analysis efforts as part of the operational support of the crisis management
and disaster response technical platform.
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Decision Making Support and Data Analysis
platform for CDMP and Climate Change Implications
TOPICS TO BE COVERED:
• Database for storage and management of the information and data related with crisis
and disasters.
• Capability for determination of players, objects, infrastructures, systems. Should be
defined: location, form, vulnerability, relations with other objects/systems. Capability for
data import from different sources like GEO information.
• Capability for implementation of control logic (command and control system, decision
making and supporting system)
• Capabilities for modeling and simulation of crisis and disaster events
Module for modeling environment parameters under defined initial conditions
Engine for model generation based on statistical data
Replay the events using the stored information into the database.
• Capability for education and training
• Artificial intellect for simulating actions of individual or collective players
• Report generating module for the environmental parameters
• Integration with other used in NATO software tools.
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LOE 1 “Demo-Experiment MSG-147”20-24 March 2017, Sofia, Bulgaria
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LOE 1 “Demo-Experiment MSG-147”20-24 March 2017, Sofia, Bulgaria
LOE 1 „Demo-Experiment” was the first attempt to test existing
simulation tools, whether one or more tools offer the required
features to simulate natural and man-made disasters.
The concept describes three different cases:
- Before a NATO military operation: Risk assessment before the
operation, Risk preparedness and prevention - Disaster Risk
Management as a contribution to the military planning process;
- During a NATO military operation: Disaster analysis when a
disaster occurs and impact on military activities, Response
Measures – Disaster Consequence Management as a short-
term support of reactive military decision-making;
- Generally: Military support to the civilian authorities in case of
disaster.
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LOE 1 “Demo-Experiment MSG-147”20-24 March 2017, Sofia, Bulgaria
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Aim:
To demonstrate part of the technical capabilities required to support decision-making
process.
Objectives
To demonstrate the technical capabilities disregarding the accuracy of the chosen
mathematical models.
To find out the necessary input data for each disaster mathematical model and to
analyse the requirements for development of the input database schema.
To demonstrate creation of federation of simulations and disaster mathematical
module.
To test transferring of data between the disaster mathematical module and the
federates.
To observe the reports computed by the simulations.
To test the replacement of one mathematical model with another (dealing with the
same disaster) and observing the influence on the simulation reports.
To consider interoperability (formats) with C2-Systems:
AIMS AND OBJECTIVES.LOE 1 “Demo-Experiment MSG-147”
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COMPONENTS OF THE EXPERIMENTLOE 1 “Demo-Experiment MSG-147”
Different test cases were prepared in advance. The variables were:
- Input Data (Disaster Type etc.) [1];
- Modelling applications [2];
- Implementation into models [2];
- Simulation Tools [3];
- Transfer into C2 systems [4].
Input Data
Database
Operator
Interface
Disaster
Mathematical
Models Engine
Disaster Model
Results to HLA
object Transformer
Federation
Simulation 1
1 2 3
Simulation 2
4
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Findings and Results LOE 1 “Demo-Experiment MSG-147”
During the experiment basically three phases
were observed:
- Capability presentations of CMDR COE
(Federation model, user front end);
- Companies’ presentations;
- Attempt to federate (Sword / Hazard Prediction
Assessment Capability (HPAC), Sword / Joint
Conflict and Tactical Simulation (JCATS)).
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Findings and Results LOE 1 “Demo-Experiment MSG-147”
The analysis team members observed and collected the
needed information from:
ST- CRISOM product related presentation was provided by the University of Genoa.
It is mainly a tool for prediction and analysis, primarily in the civilian domain
MASA SWORD is a MASA Group product which was presented by CMDR COE for
this particular experiment. It is an M&S software, automated, aggregated
constructive simulation, designed to improve training for both military commanders
and crisis management staff in the emergency preparedness
Hazard Prediction Assessment Capability (HPAC) 6.3 + supporting tolls (HPAC,
Geological Exploration and Development Information System (GEDIS), HHS Batch)
VBS3 is a training and simulation system at tactical level, presented by CMDR COE
EMERSIM is a scenario simulation tool for multiagency crisis management
developed by TEAMNET
EDMSIM is a C4I tool dedicated to Emergency & Disaster management
construction simulation
MILSIM is another C4I tool, very similar to EDMSIM but mostly military oriented with
following differences
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Findings and Results LOE 1 “Demo-Experiment MSG-147”
The analysis team members observed and collected the
needed information from:
COBRA is a DYNAMIC / CEMAC tool design mostly for Exercise and
Training support (not a modelling and simulation tool)
KORA is a LINUX based simulation system developed by IABG
During the experiment, the following applications and tools
(provided by the CMDR CoE) were used:
- Pitch RTI:
- Pitch Google Earth Adapter;
- MASA SWORD;
- VBS3
- JCATS.
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Masa Sword Replay
without MSG 147 Disaster Module
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Masa Sword Replay
with MSG 147 Disaster Module
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Masa Sword impacts
With/without MSG 147 Disaster Module
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General results:
• All considered Tools were very powerful.
• Tools are not comparable, because they are designed for
different purposes.
• The HLA standard and its RTI implementation exist for
many years. Despite the fact, there are still problems in
correct federation establishment connecting several
simulations.
• The tools EDMSIM / MILSIM, EMERSIM, COBRA are
based on modern web-based services, perfectly
functioning together, because they need open standard
metadata (XML, EDXL…).
• Only one real federation has been successfully tested:
Sword / MSG-147 Disaster Module.
Findings and Results LOE 1 “Demo-Experiment MSG-147”
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Conclusions.
a. The experiment was conducted in the way it was planned and
achieved its goals.
b. The Tools provided by Academia and companies didn't federate
(with small exceptions).
c. There were no common FOM available.
d. There is a need to concentrate on definition of Disaster FOM, in
order to standardize the data exchange of disaster events in
federation. In order to run federations connecting modern and
powerful tools, CMDR COE should concentrate on gaining this
capability.
e. Interesting finding for the concept: LoA, 4 perspectives (in-house
expertise, training, support for decision-makers, Reach-back),
strategic decision on priorities for CMDR COE.
f. Problem: generation difference of tools.
Findings and Results LOE 1 “Demo-Experiment MSG-147”
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Recommendations.
a. Repeat experiment with other tools offered to CMDR
COE/MSG-147.
b. In order to achieve the project aim – Risk/Disaster
Management and decision-making support – MSG-147
has to define an extension to deal with Disaster modelling
(e.g., as part of NETN FOM). The further implementation
is a responsibility of the companies from the M&S
industry.
c. Regular external support concerning programming should
be provided.
d. For the concept: Define finer MoP by formulating criteria
at next Workshop, e.g. ITEC Rotterdam.
e. For CMDR COE: Prioritise the perspectives of MSG-147
(in-house expertise, training, D-M-support, Reach-back).
Findings and Results LOE 1 “Demo-Experiment MSG-147”
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NATO OPERATIONAL PLANNING PROCESS
Existing civilian modelling and simulation tools
and instruments – variety of solutions.
The GAP
There is not existing app implementing the military
objects/subjects concept, doctrines, behavior,
characteristics and parameters from one side and the
disaster impact over them on the other.
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NATO OPERATIONAL PLANNING PROCESS
Existing military oriented modelling and
simulation tools and instruments – variety of
solutions.
The GAP
There is not existing Disaster Federation Object
Model as part of NETN FOM.
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Decision Making Support and Data Analysis
platform for CMDR and Climate Change
WAY AHEAD
- Kick off meeting: 17-18 March 2016, Sofia, Bulgaria
- 2nd meeting: 2-3 June 2016 Sofia, Bulgaria
- 3rd meeting: 19-20 September 2016, (CAX forum)
- 4th meeting: 28-30 November 2016, (I/ITSEC)
- 5th meeting: February 2017 Rome
- 6th meeting: 20-24 March 2017 LOE demonstration (Sofia)
- 7th meeting: 19 May 2017 ITEC
- 8th meeting IPC LOE 2 29-31 May Sofia 2017
- 9th meeting CAX 2017 September 2017 TBD
- 10th meeting MPC LOE1A October 16-20 Bydgoszc JFTC
- 11th meeting I/ITSEC 17 November Orlando, USA
- 12th meeting FPC LOE 2 February 2018 Chech Republic
- Webex meetings: Every month
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MSG 147 M&S support for Crisis and
Disaster Management Processes and
Climate Change Implications
ORLIN NIKOLOV |COL (OF-5), BGR-AF
CMDR COE Chief of Capabilities Branch
Office: +359 2 92 24705